Week 5: Bills at Chiefs on SNF

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Greg S]

Today's Daily News shows the Chiefs as a 2.5 favorite. Looks like the money is coming in on the Bills as the spread opened at 3.5

[nucci]

18 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

Anyone else worried about Josh Gordon.  I know, he's 30, been out of the league, etc.  I can't find the link, but apparently KC is going to activate him and he's "looked like a top #1 WR" during practice.  

 

 

More worried about Hill. Extremely difficult to cover

[newcam2012]

12 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

Based on what, exactly?

They have a super bowl MVP QB, the best tight end in the league, a hall a fame coach, a young dynamic runner, Chris Jones, Houston, Frank Clark, and the honey bagder. Additionally, they have owned the Bills. Do you really think we closed the gap? 

Edited October 5, 2021 by newcam2012

[Gugny]

Just now, newcam2012 said:

They have a super bowl MVP QB, the best tight end in the league, a hall a fame coach, a young dynamic runner, Chris Jones, Houston, Frank Clark, and the honey bagder. Additional, they have owned the Bills. Do you really think we closed the gap? 

 

They're also giving up over 31 points/game and have scored exactly as many points through four weeks as the Bills.

 

And yes ... I do think we've closed the gap.  Just because they have a better QB and a better TE, it doesn't mean they're the better team.

[colin]

On 10/4/2021 at 8:34 AM, Process said:

We scored two touchdowns in the AFCCG. One where started on the 5 yard line after a fumble. The other in garbage time.

 

Allen, who was a superstar all year, shrunk in both games vs KC. McDermott coached scared. We got outcoached, outplayed, completely outclassed.

 

We will likely spend most of this season blowing out garbage teams. Won't mean anything if we can't beat KC. This game is huge.

 

 

as much as the d stank vs kc before, and as much as our d has improved this season, i totally agree.  to win this game we need our O to show improve and put up points.  i think 4 TDs are necessary for us to win this game.  the D showing out means we get lots more drives w better starts.

 

i have a feeling dabol has mostly switched the O to be much more like the dominant ne o's of old, where they control the ball a bit more and win the rock paper scissors games vs what the d has on the pitch.  play action josh allen w our weapons when we are running for about 5 a clip is a scary sight.

[newcam2012]

16 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

They're also giving up over 31 points/game and have scored exactly as many points through four weeks as the Bills.

 

And yes ... I do think we've closed the gap.  Just because they have a better QB and a better TE, it doesn't mean they're the better team.

Fair enough. 

[stosh64]

A little hype.

 

[Rockinon]

12 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

This league is about matchups. I just don’t get it, but we have not matched up well with KC, esp their defense against our offense. We are going to have to really change things up.

We need to put some OLmen in there that can get the job done and I think we just did that. It also helps to have receivers out there that aren't crippled like in the AFC championship game. I think the outcome of this game is going to be different.

[No_Matter_What]

22 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Compared to what they were like last year they're downright civil.

I second this. They are definitely most arrogant fan base right now but that thread seems unusually civil.

 

They still don't think that much about Bills and Josh specifically, but they realize that their defense was awful so far.

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

9 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

We need to put some OLmen in there that can get the job done and I think we just did that. It also helps to have receivers out there that aren't crippled like in the AFC championship game. I think the outcome of this game is going to be different.

I may be making way too much out of the swagger that Spencer Brown showed in the last game, but I think that can swing the attitude of any players that might have the slightest bit of doubt.  I don't know if players go into a game thinking that the other team has their number, but you know that thought is not bouncing around Brown's head.  

1 minute ago, No_Matter_What said:

I second this. They are definitely most arrogant fan base right now but that thread seems unusually civil.

 

They still don't think that much about Bills and Josh specifically, but they realize that their defense was awful so far.

being a .500 team 4 games in will do that to an arrogant bunch!  The loss this weekend should really knock them down a few pegs.

 

[Rockinon]

6 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Agree 100%. The Bills D has faced a terrible Pitt offense, Miami isn't much better and Tua got hurt, WFT are decent, and the Texans enough said. We will see how good the defense really is in Arrowhead. I don't believe the Bills will slow down their offense. The Bills just aren't a good match up vs the Chiefs. Kelce cannot be stopped, CEH shouldn't bad as effective with Star in the middle. Mahomes and Reid know how to beat the Bills. 

 

On the other hand, I think the Chiefs defense is very beatable. The Bills should be able to score. However, they need to change up the game plan. The Chiefs defensive game plan was outstanding against the Bills last year. I believe the threat of a run game is vitato beat the Chiefs. Some quick passes and screens too. Limit the 5 WR formation. 

 

I don't see a Bills win in Arrowhead. The Chiefs will outscore the Bills. They really need the win. I'm laying the 3.5 points and betting big on the Chiefs. 

 

KC.   38

Bills. 28

Spoken like a true homer.

Yeah, I don't see KC scoring 38 on our D. Even if Milano is out. The difference is going to be disruption from our DLine.  To this point the Bills D looks legit.

[SCBills]

This is our first real road game in over a year, no?

 

Last year was whatever it was.  Arrowhead had some fans but it wasn’t a packed house for the AFCCG.   
 

Miami in Week 2 was, and is always, half Bills fans.  

[RichRiderBills]

I believe the x factor in this game will be Singletary and Moss. These guys were running like maniacs last week and the stat line does not capture how tough they ran. 

Edited October 5, 2021 by RichRiderBills

[YoloinOhio]

10 minutes ago, SCBills said:

This is our first real road game in over a year, no?

 

Last year was whatever it was.  Arrowhead had some fans but it wasn’t a packed house for the AFCCG.   
 

Miami in Week 2 was, and is always, half Bills fans.  

At full capacity, that’s probably right. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

I of course want the Bills to win, but I could just as easily and annoyingly see the Chiefs win by 11...say 28-17, but the week after the Chiefs will need a last second field goal to beat the WFT, 27-24.

 

Man, I just hate the way our team plays the Chiefs.

 

Atlanta?  They can beat them.

 

Vegas?  They can beat them.

 

Chargers?  They can beat them.

 

...and all the while recent history shows we have trouble just hanging with them.

 

McD, Beane and the Men, please...change that this weekend.

 

GO BILLS!

[kevin Alfred]

Hello from Kingston. I'm new to the TBD Wall.

We got the east side of Ontario covered as my whole family here are Bills Mafia members and we protect the east end blind side.

As for KC game, love being the underdog as it will make the game that much sweeter when Buffalo Wins. Enjoy the game. 🏈

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

5 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

I believe the x factor in this game will be Singletary and Moss. These guys were running like maniacs last week and the stat line does not capture how tough they ran. 

I think the X-factor is coaching...Bills and KC both have the players and talent to beat each other.  Coaching will be the difference maker.  

 

And I swear to God...if I see a designed running play for Allen I might lose it.  Let him design his own running plays on the fly, that's when its most effective.

2 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

I of course want the Bills to win, but I could just as easily and annoyingly see the Chiefs win by 11...say 28-17, but the week after the Chiefs will need a last second field goal to beat the WFT, 27-24.

 

Man, I just hate the way our team plays the Chiefs.

 

Atlanta?  They can beat them.

 

Vegas?  They can beat them.

 

Chargers?  They can beat them.

 

...and all the while recent history shows we have trouble just hanging with them.

 

McD, Beane and the Men, please...change that this weekend.

 

GO BILLS!

This....100%

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, kevin Alfred said:

Hello from Kingston. I'm new to the TBD Wall.

We got the east side of Ontario covered as my whole family here are Bills Mafia members and we protect the east end blind side.

As for KC game, love being the underdog as it will make the game that much sweeter when Buffalo Wins. Enjoy the game. 🏈

I enjoyed a visit to Fort Henry many moons ago. Welcome to the board. 

[SCBills]

10 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

I of course want the Bills to win, but I could just as easily and annoyingly see the Chiefs win by 11...say 28-17, but the week after the Chiefs will need a last second field goal to beat the WFT, 27-24.

 

Man, I just hate the way our team plays the Chiefs.

 

Atlanta?  They can beat them.

 

Vegas?  They can beat them.

 

Chargers?  They can beat them.

 

...and all the while recent history shows we have trouble just hanging with them.

 

McD, Beane and the Men, please...change that this weekend.

 

GO BILLS!

We needed a new attitude against the Chiefs, specifically… we needed more “dog” in us last year.  
 

Sanders is a dog.  We now have a legit #2 who can deal with physical DB play should the Chiefs try that again.  (Also helps that we’re healthy at WR). 
 

Knox has the mentality now that we need in a guy playing in this type of game.   
 

If we go with Brown at RT… That dude is a DOG.  We’ll see how good he truly is should he get the primetime start, but so far, so good. 
 

Darryl Williams at RG.  Chris Jones/Cam Heyward types have destroyed our interior. I’m hopeful a big body like Williams at RG will help against the physicality of Jones. 
 

Revamped DL with Star, Rousseau and Epenesa.  Let’s see what they’re made of.  
 

Lots of changes have been made going into this game from the the team we saw last year.  
 

Of course, it really all comes down to Josh Allen..  If he’s on, we’re winning this game.  We have a better team than the Chiefs.  If he’s flustered and under attack all game, we likely lose, and then it’s back to the drawing board. 
 

 

Edited October 5, 2021 by SCBills

[Greg S]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

We needed a new attitude against the Chiefs, specifically… we needed more “dog” in us last year.  
 

Sanders is a dog.  We now have a legit #2 who can deal with physical DB play should the Chiefs try that again.  (Also helps that we’re healthy at WR). 
 

Knox has the mentality now that we need in a guy playing in this type of game.   
 

If we go with Brown at RT… That dude is a DOG.  We’ll see how good he truly is should he get the primetime start, but so far, so good. 
 

Darryl Williams at RG.  Chris Jones/Cam Heyward types have destroyed our interior. I’m hopeful a big body like Williams at RG will help against the physicality of Jones. 
 

Revamped DL with Star, Rousseau and Epenesa.  Let’s see what they’re made of.  
 

Lots of changes have been made going into this game from the the team we saw last year.  
 

Of course, it really all comes down to Josh Allen..  If he’s on, we’re winning this game.  We have a better team than the Chiefs.  If he’s flustered and under attack all game, we likely lose, and then it’s back to the drawing board. 
 

 

 

I mentioned this before but it would really help if the Bills could get after Mahomes with their front 4. See last year's Super Bowl and the Giants two Super Bowls against the evil empire. That is the way to get after great QB's. The Bills blitz this game or sit back in zone then they are in trouble.

[boco357]

I'm ok if we lose 37-34, but if the Bills lose  like 26-14 and offense can't do anything going the 3rd time in a row vs KC, going to be very disappointing.  

[newcam2012]

43 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

Yeah, I don't see KC scoring 38 on our D. Even if Milano is out. The difference is going to be disruption from our DLine.  To this point the Bills D looks legit.

I think you have to look at the Bills D and the opposing offenses. Pitt and Houston are horrible. Miami lost Tua and had to play Brissett on a whim. Wash offense looks decent. I think it's fair to say the Bills D hasn't faced a quality offensive team. Obviously, nothing like the Chiefs. The Chiefs have lost mainly because their defense isn't good. Their offense is still one of the best in the league, they know how to beat the Bills, and they have Kelce who the Bills have no answer. The defense looks very promising but up front they are still very young. I'm not sure they can pressure Mahomes to win the game. I think he will shred the Bills defense. Similarly, Allen should do the same. However, Reid and the Chiefs seem to know how to shut down the Bills offense. In summary, the Bills D will be tested by an offensive juggernaut. I'm not confident the Bills can slow down their offense. Additionally, I believe the Bills D really hasn't been tested because of their opponents. 

 

 

 

 

 

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I think you have to look at the Bills D and the opposing offenses. Pitt and Houston are horrible. Miami lost Tua and had to play Brissett on a whim. Wash offense looks decent. I think it's fair to say the Bills D hasn't faced a quality offensive team. Obviously, nothing like the Chiefs. The Chiefs have lost mainly because their defense isn't good. Their offense is still one of the best in the league, they know how to beat the Bills, and they have Kelce who the Bills have no answer. The defense looks very promising but up front they are still very young. I'm not sure they can pressure Mahomes to win the game. I think he will shred the Bills defense. Similarly, Allen should do the same. However, Reid and the Chiefs seem to know how to shut down the Bills offense. In summary, the Bills D will be tested by an offensive juggernaut. I'm not confident the Bills can slow down their offense. Additionally, I believe the Bills D really hasn't been tested because of their opponents. 

 

 

 

 

 

I think our defense is good, but I have no idea how good.  
 

I don’t expect us to hold KC under 24, but I’d also be disappointed if they scored over 31. 
 

Somewhere between 24-31 would still make me believe we have a Top 10 Defense that hasn’t only been inflated by bad offenses.  

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, boco357 said:

I'm ok if we lose 37-34, but if the Bills lose  like 26-14 and offense can't do anything going the 3rd time in a row vs KC, going to be very disappointing.  

 

It'll kill me.  I'll feel like early to mid 2000 Colts when they just couldn't get past Brady and the Pats.....but it did happen once!

[nucci]

14 minutes ago, boco357 said:

I'm ok if we lose 37-34, but if the Bills lose  like 26-14 and offense can't do anything going the 3rd time in a row vs KC, going to be very disappointing.  

I'm not ok with a loss. Not sure how you are

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[nucci]

Neutral pass rate?

[atlbillsfan1975]

30 minutes ago, SCBills said:

We needed a new attitude against the Chiefs, specifically… we needed more “dog” in us last year.  
 

Sanders is a dog.  We now have a legit #2 who can deal with physical DB play should the Chiefs try that again.  (Also helps that we’re healthy at WR). 
 

Knox has the mentality now that we need in a guy playing in this type of game.   
 

If we go with Brown at RT… That dude is a DOG.  We’ll see how good he truly is should he get the primetime start, but so far, so good. 
 

Darryl Williams at RG.  Chris Jones/Cam Heyward types have destroyed our interior. I’m hopeful a big body like Williams at RG will help against the physicality of Jones. 
 

Revamped DL with Star, Rousseau and Epenesa.  Let’s see what they’re made of.  
 

Lots of changes have been made going into this game from the the team we saw last year.  
 

Of course, it really all comes down to Josh Allen..  If he’s on, we’re winning this game.  We have a better team than the Chiefs.  If he’s flustered and under attack all game, we likely lose, and then it’s back to the drawing board. 
 

 

Good post. Play with confidence.

I will add a name to that list, Boogie. You drafted him after watching what the Bucs did to KC. Basham looked solid against the Texans. I think he will look even better under the lights for a big game.

[K-9]

18 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

WTF does that even mean? These stat nerds are out of control. 

[LeviF]

15 minutes ago, nucci said:

Neutral pass rate?

Pass rate for 1st and 2nd downs where your team has between a 25% and 75% chance of winning the game, excluding final 2:00 of each half. 

Edited October 5, 2021 by LeviF

[nucci]

1 minute ago, LeviF said:

Pass rate for 1st and 2nd downs where your team has between a 25% and 75% chance of winning the game, excluding final 2:00 of each half. 

I like stats but I'm getting old. This seems worthless. 

[LeviF]

7 minutes ago, nucci said:

I like stats but I'm getting old. This seems worthless. 

All it really tells you is how pass-happy a team is in general. 

[Stank_Nasty]

Does anyone think there's anything to the Chiefs moving Jones outside? Could it be why there hemorrhaging rush yards and not getting much of a rush now? Maybe he's not good enough to handle the good tackles of the NFL? Have they sprinkled him back to the inside at all? Im just really curious because he's been an absolute nightmare for our interior lineman. I've got to assume thats a matchup they feel like they need to take advantage of..... I also have to wonder if the refs are gonna let their DB's drape all over our wr's again. We saw how they had to alter that approach in the superbowl once they got called for it and what it led to.

 

As far as the matchup with their D as a whole goes. I guess i'm in the camp that needs to see Allen actually do it against them before i'll just expect it. Even against what looks to be a crap defense. I've got some scar tissue from those games.

Edited October 5, 2021 by Stank_Nasty

[FilthyBeast]

47 minutes ago, boco357 said:

I'm ok if we lose 37-34, but if the Bills lose  like 26-14 and offense can't do anything going the 3rd time in a row vs KC, going to be very disappointing.  

 

Bills need to win period and I'll go as far as to say this should be treated as our SB which I know sounds strange in October and considering how well this team has played the last 3 weeks and their long term prospects this season. No it's not just another game no matter what the players and coaches say publicly.

 

Because one thing I think is for certain is that this years Chiefs right now look a lot like Pats teams of years past in that their defense isn't up to snuff early in the season but will put it together by Nov/Dec when it matters. And the sad reality is all the Chiefs need to do is play marginally better on defense to become the odds on SB favorite again because barring injuries their offense is what it is.

 

So if the Bills do lose this game again and it's because of Allen and the offense you can forget about going anywhere come January. I think there is also a lot of pressure on McDermott/Frazier/etc to come up with something different on defense and make quick adjustments if they can't get pressure with just the front four because that's how the AFCG spiraled out of control quickly in the 2nd quarter when the Chiefs easily went down the field for 3 straight TD's before halftime. Conversely we need to pretty much go for every 4th down situation if we are past the 50 yard line.

[Dr. Who]

31 minutes ago, nucci said:

Neutral pass rate?

I'm thinking it has something to do with Switzerland.

6 minutes ago, LeviF said:

All it really tells you is how pass-happy a team is in general. 

Eh, it's baseball envy. That level of stats is for geeks like Hapless (though I appreciate those who can make sense of it.)

[nucci]

24 minutes ago, LeviF said:

All it really tells you is how pass-happy a team is in general. 

I can tell that by the pass attempts

[Success]

I think the fact that Mahomes thinks he's on the Harlem Globetrotters now will be a benefit to the Bills this Sunday...

 

[Royale with Cheese]

As I think more and more about this game, no reason we can't put up points.  Jalen Freaking Hurts moved the ball and scored on KC.  They don't have a pass rush anymore and their redzone defense is horrible.

 

If we don't play tight like we did last year against them, we should have a great offensive day....no reason it doesn't happen.

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

We needed a new attitude against the Chiefs, specifically… we needed more “dog” in us last year.  
 

Sanders is a dog.  We now have a legit #2 who can deal with physical DB play should the Chiefs try that again.  (Also helps that we’re healthy at WR). 
 

Knox has the mentality now that we need in a guy playing in this type of game.   
 

If we go with Brown at RT… That dude is a DOG.  We’ll see how good he truly is should he get the primetime start, but so far, so good. 
 

Darryl Williams at RG.  Chris Jones/Cam Heyward types have destroyed our interior. I’m hopeful a big body like Williams at RG will help against the physicality of Jones. 
 

Revamped DL with Star, Rousseau and Epenesa.  Let’s see what they’re made of.  
 

Lots of changes have been made going into this game from the the team we saw last year.  
 

Of course, it really all comes down to Josh Allen..  If he’s on, we’re winning this game.  We have a better team than the Chiefs.  If he’s flustered and under attack all game, we likely lose, and then it’s back to the drawing board. 
 

 

Bills also have Miss healthy for this game and Moss brings a physical presence to the running game. Agree with everything you said but I also think Diggs, Davis and Beasley being healthy will help the offense. In the AFCCG last year all the WR’s were banged up and it made it impossible for the offense to move the ball.

 

 This time in addition to hopefully having more physicality this team has the skill position players healthy and ready to go.