Rocket94 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Why would Allen regress? Last year was no fluke...he is locked in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsDude Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 12 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: Duke U. or Duke Williams? And while we're discussing it, what about the Drake? Love or hate the Drake? 🤔 Coach K Duke. But, love the Drake too..:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
without a drought Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I thought about posting something to that effect myself, then I decided it was simpler to just edit the Subject from "pole" to "poll" Show off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 2 hours ago, eball said: Yup. This entire thread is a bit irritating to me (I know, so why am I here) but the whole concept of “regression” needs to be defined. Is it simply statistics (as I believe the OP intended) or is it — as I believe you, I, and others view it — whether or not Josh gets “worse” as an NFL QB? If the latter, there is literally no reason to believe he takes a step backwards. He is relentlessly motivated and dedicated to improving his craft, and we’ve seen the results before our very eyes. I don’t give a crap about whether he throws for 300 fewer yards or 10 fewer TDs, or tosses a few more picks because he is taking some chances. He will be a better QB. I’m also too lazy to look it up but I’d still like to know if QB performance overall last season (without crowds) was markedly better than it was in 2019 or 2018. This has been brought up several times as a reason why Josh will do worse this season but I’d like to know if the numbers back it up. I’m not sure if numbers back up playing with (or without) crowds affected QB stats, but I know for a fact that hostile away crowds make the qbs jobs more difficult. Josh said it himself. our boy is just getting better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 (edited) This is really a question about our entire offense-- and the answers bode well. If Diggs, and Cole can maintain their efficiency (I believe they will), if Sanders is an upgrade over Brown (I believe he is), if Knox improves his drop tendencies (good chance), if Hollister proves to be an upgrade to Kroft (I believe he will be), if the O-line does not regress (why would they), and if there is even a slight improvement to the run game (fingers crossed), then Allen's numbers go up. Go Bills. Edited June 24, 2021 by Rocky Landing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg S Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said: This is really a question about our entire offense-- and the answers bode well. If Diggs, and Cole can maintain their efficiency (I believe they will), if Sanders is an upgrade over Brown (I believe he is), if Knox improves his drop tendencies (good chance), if Hollister proves to be an upgrade to Kroft (I believe he will be), if the O-line does not regress (why would they), and if there is even a slight improvement to the run game (fingers crossed), then Allen's numbers go up. Go Bills. If we can improve the run game then Allen's numbers go down and that's a great thing. With no run game last year it seemed everything was on Allen and the passing game. I hope we have a balanced offense this year. Allen's numbers go down but we will have a more dangerous offense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
starrymessenger Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Numbers may or may not be as good. We don’t even know if he will have Bease as a target, but Allen will be a better QB by year’s end than on day one. Getting better is what he does. He’s the real deal and a DC’s nightmare. Its not all rocket science. Like PM you pretty much know what he’s going to do the problem is stopping him. I don’t think having now seen him for a couple of years is going to give opposing teams much additional insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijah Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Need another option for regressed numbers but improved play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 His numbers could slightly regress if things play out in a certain way but in regards to his quality level, he will in my view be a better QB. Sometimes being better doesn't necessarily translate in the numbers, even though I do expect him to have really good numbers again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, Greg S said: If we can improve the run game then Allen's numbers go down and that's a great thing. With no run game last year it seemed everything was on Allen and the passing game. I hope we have a balanced offense this year. Allen's numbers go down but we will have a more dangerous offense. Perhaps attempts go down. But, the run game isn't going to get so much better that we stop playing a spread offense. And, comp%, TDs, QBR? ^UP^ Hopefully Ints go down as well. Maybe "up" was the wrong word to use... I guess my point is that the Bills will very likely be a better team this year. And as the team improves, Allen improves right along with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 16 hours ago, Buffalo619 said: After the Chiefs game, he has a long ways to go, he’ll continue to progress. He must learn that it takes a champion to play hero ball. After the Super Bowl, I guess Mahomes has a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Like a plurality of folks, I voted for a slight improvement. Josh has gotten better every year and yet still has room for improvement. I'm not sure why I should believe he won't improve this season - that his trajectory will suddenly change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 The offense is basically intact, bringing back everyone except John Brown. In John Brown's place we added Sanders, who is a far better route runner and more sure-handed. Davis will be going into his 2nd year and should continue to grow. Hodgins will finally be able to get a look. We still have McKenzie. We added Hollister, whom Allen played with at Wyoming. Knox has apparently been working his tail off to get better. The OL is intact and we added some younger depth. We added Breida to the RB group. Daboll is still the OC. These guys are also getting a full, normal offseason in together which can't be underestimated. Then you throw in Josh's competitive nature, his relentless work ethic, and you have a QB poised to take another step forward. This is what I expect, that Josh will again show improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulldog Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 I didn't vote - I'm holding out for the simple poll on whether Duke William's will regress - I will vote in that poll. This off-season is getting a little long. The good news is that training camp starts in about a month! Football is coming soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DabillsDaBillsDaBills Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 I voted that he'll regress a little bit. The amazing thing is that even if he regresses he could still be a top 5 QB and MVP candidate. That's how good his 2020 season was. Josh's stats might take a dip if our run game and defense improve enough that we can easily win games without him throwing 40+ times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 3 hours ago, BillsDude said: Coach K Duke. But, love the Drake too..:) Hate the Drake...🤨 * 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
first_and_ten Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Josh Allen has the physical tools. He has the mental tools also. He has shown that he is willing to work hard to get better. No way does he regress!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpberr Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 I voted he'll be a little better. I expect defenses will deploy countermeasures. I think, however, Allen and Daboll can expect some of them, and quickly adapt to those they can't. Three key details: I think coaching consistency really helps. I expect the Bills to develop the running game to a degree to keep defenses guessing. I expect Gabe Davis and the TE to apply consistent pressure on the defense's second and third tier CBs. This is what someone astutely pointed out about Steve Tasker - he was a lot better than the defensive talent at the nickel position, and he exploited it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 A Pats* fan I work with was trying to make a case that the Bills were some sort of anomaly last season, and would not repeat last season's success. One of his arguments (which is a common refrain on the Pats* fan forum): "Allen has been exposed..." "Right," I replied, "Allen has been exposed as an elite passer, and running threat who can read defenses, and extend plays with his athleticism. The Bills are doomed." An improved running game may reduce the amount Allen passes, but I don't see any reason to assume anything that should be interpreted as a regression on the horizon. Barring some nagging injury (like Mahomes' turf toe), Allen really should just continue his trajectory. Likely he gets a little better, and at some point, levels off. Don't expect him to start "regressing" until his body starts to decline in a decade, or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Cubed Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Statistically speaking the vast majority of offenses that have put up 50 or more TDs have regressed the following season, with a few exceptions. Tennessee 2019 to 2020 improved on their 50+ TD offense. There was a New England offense that did as well. It’s just not very common, so I would expect the Bills offense may not put up 50+ TDs again. Does that mean Josh regressed? Depends on what the metric is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted June 24, 2021 Author Share Posted June 24, 2021 28 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said: Statistically speaking the vast majority of offenses that have put up 50 or more TDs have regressed the following season, with a few exceptions. Tennessee 2019 to 2020 improved on their 50+ TD offense. There was a New England offense that did as well. It’s just not very common, so I would expect the Bills offense may not put up 50+ TDs again. Does that mean Josh regressed? Depends on what the metric is. very very well put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Rocky Landing said: A Pats* fan I work with was trying to make a case that the Bills were some sort of anomaly last season, and would not repeat last season's success. One of his arguments (which is a common refrain on the Pats* fan forum): "Allen has been exposed..." "Right," I replied, "Allen has been exposed as an elite passer, and running threat who can read defenses, and extend plays with his athleticism. The Bills are doomed." An improved running game may reduce the amount Allen passes, but I don't see any reason to assume anything that should be interpreted as a regression on the horizon. Barring some nagging injury (like Mahomes' turf toe), Allen really should just continue his trajectory. Likely he gets a little better, and at some point, levels off. Don't expect him to start "regressing" until his body starts to decline in a decade, or so. For the sake of amenable relations, I hope you didn't point out Newton has been exposed as wearing women's scarves. And we won't even begin to discuss what Belichick has been exposed of. 🤨 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: For the sake of amenable relations, I hope you didn't point out Newton has been exposed as wearing women's scarves. And we won't even begin to discuss what Belichick has been exposed of. 🤨 Or Kraft, for that matter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seasons1992 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 19 hours ago, Wacka said: Ron Jaworski., that was a Pole! I have a friend who is cousins with Ron. I have a signed "Polish Rifle" t-shirt from him, from her. That's about as interesting as this original thread............... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boater Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 I worry that Josh's numbers will not be as prolific if Cole Beasley is limited in appearances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WideNine Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 20 hours ago, Aussie Joe said: Regress meaning he doesn’t have two franchise record setting seasons in a row? Love to be wrong but the numbers probably go backwards a little..no one is underestimating him anymore … This. I think that two and three-deep safety look will still be something that he will have to adjust to more. Having legit speed on both sides of the field with Sanders (not having a healthy Smoke last season hurt) will help a bit with challenging that coverage, but he will still have to pickup his short timing route game to challenge those heavy-nickel/LB/safeties playing the shallow zones trying to get Allen to hold the ball longer till his receivers running deeper routes run into the zones at the sticks where the safeties are waiting. The defense against Allen was to take away the quick hitters and remove the home-run deep shots he prefers against man coverage to get him to pull the ball down to either try to escape or have to reset to try to find deeper off-schedule targets that were blanketed. That was problematic against teams with better fronts and pass rush who could force him into mistakes. Allen's numbers could take a dip while he actually plays better ball. It sounds counter intuitive but if he can leverage more running game productivity and balance to slow up pass rushers as well as hit more short passes that pick up YAC it may not be reflected in the gaudy QB numbers that win awards, but would likely help this team take the next step against teams with better defenses. I do think our defense will be better so that is a wild card - better defense, more opportunities to score. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Rocky Landing said: Or Kraft, for that matter! True. We have to hand it to him. * 🤔 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyBatty is alive Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 20 hours ago, Jauronimo said: I think all QB play will take a step back this year with crowd noise to contend with. Was it ever easier to operate an NFL offense than last year? Good point. Just wait to see what Zach Wilson and Tua do in front of a rocking Highmark Stadium. Would not shock me at if both of them get easily rattled and when/or if Tua gets rattled, his game will come undone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: True. We have to hand it to him. * 🤔 Wasn't sure whether to go for the laughing emoji, or the vomiting emoji... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilthyBeast Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 I think he'll regress a little in terms of stats/overall production, but likely because our running game ends up being more effective and/or the defense reverts back closer to 2019 form so won't need to score as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted June 25, 2021 Author Share Posted June 25, 2021 4 hours ago, FilthyBeast said: I think he'll regress a little in terms of stats/overall production, but likely because our running game ends up being more effective and/or the defense reverts back closer to 2019 form so won't need to score as much. IF your a more effective QB then I would not call that regression 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 For reference, here are Josh's number through his career. In terms of regression, if the running game and run blocking is better I expect him to drop in pass attempt and total passing yards. The only regression I see could come from comp % and TD/INT ratio but I don't think that is going to happen as he seems to be getting the mental game while also fixing his mechanics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zonabb Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 A question about regression without a selected measure for regression and without defining what regression means as measurement. First, regress to the mean? As in you pick any measure you think indicates regression and he regresses to the mean of his first first two seasons? Second, what measure would be, which is implied, "regression." QBR? Yards? TDs? INTs? YPA? I'd bet he's pretty close to last year across all measures, some might be up, some might be down. So a few fewer TDs, maybe. But that could be a product of a more productive run game. I wouldn't be surprised by fewer INTs and an increase in both QR ratings. I just don't see a statistically significant derease in measures across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 I guess it depends on what "regress means." I expect a statistical regression because our running game should be better, meaning more rushing TDs, and greater use of running plays to ice games. I don't expect him to regress on a per-play basis. I think he will be even more efficient than last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talley56 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 I can't vote for some reason but I would say about the same only this time around "about the same" will be enough to get past the Chiefs and Bucs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 By the time the season is over, Josh Allen being the best QB in the NFL is NOT beyond the realm of possibility. A healthy Josh Allen gets better. The only question is by how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stank_Nasty Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 3 hours ago, Gene1973 said: Allen will regress, yes. So will the team overall, they were overachievers last season. They will not go 6-0 in the division again. Last season with no crowds was anomalous. No crowd noise had a lot to do with Allen's play IMO. He'll come back down to earth and play more like 2019 than 2020. Finheaven is where the fish fans hangout. You and your hard on for the fins should head on over that way. BTW you say foolish things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 3 hours ago, Gene1973 said: Allen will regress, yes. So will the team overall, they were overachievers last season. They will not go 6-0 in the division again. Last season with no crowds was anomalous. No crowd noise had a lot to do with Allen's play IMO. He'll come back down to earth and play more like 2019 than 2020. Thats my boy @Gene1973, you NEVER disappoint. Ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said: Finheaven is where the fish fans hangout. You and your hard on for the fins should head on over that way. BTW you say foolish things. He’s pure enjoyment for me now. we’ve seen some great ones over the years…… the force is special with this one. Edited June 26, 2021 by NewEra 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nihilarian Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 I think Josh will be better this season. Not so sure about the rest of the team though... The thing is, now that teams have had an entire offseason to study what the Bills did last season my take is that it will be more difficult for Buffalo to run a lot of those same plays. Plus, every AFC East team got much better in free agency and the draft. The Patriots and Dolphins both might field top 5 defenses. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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