Zach Ertz about to be traded? [Edit: or Not]

[machine gun kelly]

36 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

I mean Kroft looked plenty fine catching the ball and they made him inactive most of the year. Knox is 100% a more difficult matchup for defenses than Ertz because of his athleticism. Ertz is a proven pass catcher so like I said I can understand why people would want him, but I don’t see him as any kind of game changer for this offense or the missing piece to a Super Bowl run. Anyone can catch check downs, IF we had a quarterback who settled for check downs. 

Rc, IDK, he was the third highest TE in the league as a pass catcher behind Kelce and Kittle in 2019.

Edited March 8, 2021 by machine gun kelly

[purple haze]

2 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

I would be furious if the Bills gave up a pick and did that..

 

For a 6th or a 7th, why?  The odds of a late round pick making the current Bills roster are long.  Ertz would be better, over the next few seasons, i.e. their Super Bowl window,  than what the Bills would draft with those picks.  
 

When Beane spoke of the TE position it’s obvious he is looking for an upgrade there.  Ertz is an upgrade.  Not saying Beane will trade for him, but a new TE is coming and that TE won’t be just a guy.  They will be proven (Ertz, Kyle Rudolph, Jared Cook) or a young guy with big upside (Jonnu Smih, Hunter Henry, David Njoku).  I believe Beane prioritizes this over Milano.  And he should.

[Aussie Joe]

4 minutes ago, purple haze said:

For a 6th or a 7th, why?  The odds of a late round pick making the current Bills roster are long.  Ertz would be better, over the next few seasons, i.e. their Super Bowl window,  than what the Bills would draft with those picks.  
 

When Beane spoke of the TE position it’s obvious he is looking for an upgrade there.  Ertz is an upgrade.  Not saying Beane will trade for him, but a new TE is coming and that TE won’t be just a guy.  They will be proven (Ertz, Kyle Rudolph, Jared Cook) or a young guy with big upside (Jonnu Smih, Hunter Henry, David Njoku).  I believe Beane prioritizes this over Milano.  And he should.

I just think he is likely to be let go ..

 

I don’t like the situation of giving up a pick ( even a day 3 one) ... paying him $8M in 2021 and then trying to negotiate an extension...what are you going to pay him in 2022 and beyond?

 

I have outlined other options I prefer to do in the thread if interested ...

 

 

Edited March 8, 2021 by Aussie Joe

[John from Riverside]

I don’t want to trade for Zack If he is released I would look at him but there’s about to be a major bloodbath of talent and it doesn’t make sense giving up draft picks we can get a different te if needed

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

I don’t want to trade for Zack If he is released I would look at him but there’s about to be a major bloodbath of talent and it doesn’t make sense giving up draft picks we can get a different te if needed

Exactly my thoughts... I think people are underestimating how wild this FA period is going to be... 

[NewEra]

For the record:  I don’t believe we’re interested in trading for him.  If I were Beane, I would most likely try and sign a vet, like Jared cook, to a team friendly deal.  I hope we try and take advantage of having a good team in free agency.  Iirc, this years SB champs signed 14 players to 1 year free agent contracts   The only contract that was 1 year, was TB12 for 2 years. 
 

Try and catch lightning in a bottle while keeping cap flexibility.

 

if ertz wants to take a team friendly deal to win another Sb than anything’s possible.  I just don’t think Beane is thinking about taking on his current 8M 

Edited March 8, 2021 by NewEra

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, NewEra said:

For the record:  I don’t believe we’re interested in trading for him.  If I were Beane, I would most likely try and sign a vet, like Jared cook, to a team friendly deal.  

Where did you get that idea 😉

[NewEra]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

Where did you get that idea 😉

That’s why I threw his name in there.  I wasn’t disagreeing with you.  I am also not underestimating how wild this FA will be. I was merely standing reason why some teams may want to trade for him. Teams other than the Bills included 

[purple haze]

54 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I could see them bringing in a cheaper Vet for a year and then taking a swing in the draft on a Day 2 pick...

That’s not really addressing the position.  They have cheap, young, developing  vets now in Knox and Sweeney.  They need a guy they can count on.
 

That SB window is open now.   To me, you prioritize resources to areas that will support your franchise QB: O-line and TE.  The cap should be going back up in 2022, so structure contracts with that in mind.  
 

 

[Aussie Joe]

2 minutes ago, purple haze said:

That’s not really addressing the position.  They have cheap, young, developing  vets now in Knox and Sweeney.  They need a guy they can count on.
 

That SB window is open now.   To me, you prioritize resources to areas that will support your franchise QB: O-line and TE.  The cap should be going back up in 2022, so structure contracts with that in mind.  
 

 

I just don’t see Beane  giving up a pick ( even a 6th or 7th) and paying Ertz $8M ( even if he agrees a restructure and pushes some of this into the future) ....not this year when the bloodbath is in the horizon... if I am wrong I will add you to the list in this thread that I will apologise too...I think you are Number 4...

[purple haze]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

I just don’t see Beane  giving up a pick ( even a 6th or 7th) and paying Ertz $8M ( even if he agrees a restructure and pushes some of this into the future) ....not this year when the bloodbath is in the horizon... if I am wrong I will add you to the list in this thread that I will apologise too...I think you are Number 4...

No need to apologize.  You raise good points.  I just think Beane, based on his comments, is ready to make a strong move at that position.   His assessment of the TE position was spot on.   We will see soon enough what he prioritizes.  It’s going to be fascinating to see.

[machine gun kelly]

5 minutes ago, purple haze said:

No need to apologize.  You raise good points.  I just think Beane, based on his comments, is ready to make a strong move at that position.   His assessment of the TE position was spot on.   We will see soon enough what he prioritizes.  It’s going to be fascinating to see.

Both of you guys class acts.  Nice to see when guys just agree to disagree and both have good points.

[machine gun kelly]

NP mate.  BTW, love the accent.  I would’ve dated a lot more women with that accent.  Hopefully you made the most of it in you’re youth.

[78thealltimegreat]

I think the question is... at this point is Zach Ertz for a year or two an upgrade over Dawson Knox....yes that is an easy question  but he’s not worth more then say a 6 or 7th round pick at this point which is pretty much still better then the butter fingers tight end we have now 

[JMF2006]

Can we wait for the 1/2 price sale?  

 

Over 8m for a TE when the Bills need a RT and an RG seems like a luxury.

[Rochesterfan]

6 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

I can see why people look at his stats and want him, but please look how many targets he got in Philly. He will be lucky to see 1/3rd of that here. I have not seen Daboll even remotely interested in tight end routes in this offense minus the inside the 5 yard line touchdown throws. 
Now if we are saying it’s cause our tight ends are sooooo terrible and daboll will make Ertz a focal part of the pass offense maybe it makes sense. I just think his playbook is mostly built off Allen’s ability to sling it 10-25 yards down the field. I can’t see him making Ertz a big part of the offense within 10 yards which is the only place he’s good for especially at this stage of his career. 

 

I don’t know that it is Daboll not be interested in TE routes or if it is our QB - like point 2.  Nothing wrong with Josh, but he is/has typically used WRs as his primary pass catching target since college.  I think he is way more comfortable throwing to WRs than TEs.  Once Josh learns how to control some of that and utilize RBs and TEs as safety valves - he will become a nearly unstoppable force.

 

My issue with thinking Ertz will do anything if the Bills trade for him is targets/targets/targets.  He has been the primary receiving target in Philadelphia for years and the WR room has been a shifting wasteland of injured garbage and guys past their prime.  Coming to Buffalo, how many targets does he get?  In 2020 if you merge all TE targets - he would have gotten 66 targets with a 75% catch rate you get 50 receptions instead of 43 and I think that is top end levels without using any other TEs. 
 

The other thing is that the Bills have lessened the usage of a traditional TE and gone to more of an HB role to increase blocking and give a safety valve - I am not sure that fits Ertz very well - so my guess is a more traditional pass catching TE that can’t block see the field less.  
 

I have no issue with a 7th round pick and trying it, but I do have an issue with an 8 million+ salary.  He will never live up to that in this offense - he will just be a huge disappointment that everyone tries to rationalize.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

You're all missing his worth for the Bills.  The perfect holder for Bassomatic.  Puts the 'laces out'.  Can run a fake FG.  Plus pushes the current TE corps if the Bills sign him.  
*

(I said I had ideas.  I didn't say they were good  ideas.)
😁

Edited March 8, 2021 by Ridgewaycynic2013
Tinkering...🤔

[DCOrange]

I think we might be interested if he gets cut but I can’t see Beane trading a pick for the right to pay another TE that can’t block at all over $8 mil when we’re hurting for cap space to begin with.

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

The Tight end doesn’t need to be thr focal point from option A or B to throw too in this offense  but we need someone who can be dangerous and respected enough that linebackers have to defend. Take away One less defender for our guys to block in the run game. It goes hand in hand. I think we find that this offense takes it too another level. 

I don’t think Knox has shown that yet. I get that he’s young but Beane specifically brought up their play for a reason. And as others have said we have a window.

 

If Ertz has something left and if Beane thinks it an upgrade for a year or two, i think he at least explores it. He could be a good Mentor for Knox as well. 
 

I will be surprised if this area isn’t addressed in one way or another. 

 

 

[DCofNC]

7 hours ago, ExWNYer said:

 

I considered that but it's the only reason that I would give up an asset for him. I doubt a bidding war is going above his current $8M and if you're paying that on the open market, you're likely getting longer term (maybe a team option) and retaining draft capital. It all depends on how desperate you are to have him.

Let’s not forget what Kroft got in the open market, 8m isn’t bad.

[RichRiderBills]

I'd make the move for a later round pick, yes. Competion may push the price up to a 3rd or 4th, id still likely do it. Not sure who folks think is going to be an answer at TE for the Bills but Ertz really could help be a piece.

 

Buff is a team ready to make the move to the SB. Guys need to stop revisiting our rebuild mindset. Our window is open....I like less bringing in some kid in the draft, that may not ripen for 2-3 years, when a guy like Ertz could be have at that 8.2 million figure, which is a no brainer

 

Ertz is still a good/elite player in a mess in Philly. The OL was in shambles, QB situation crazy, an this was not Ertzs fault. 

 

BTW still have high hopes for Knox. Think he'll take a step this year.

 

Edited March 8, 2021 by RichRiderBills

[John from Riverside]

12 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

I'd make the move for a later round pick, yes. Competion may push the price up to a 3rd or 4th, id still likely do it. Not sure who folks think is going to be an answer at TE for the Bills but Ertz really could help be a piece.

 

Buff is a team ready to make the move to the SB. Guys need to stop revisiting our rebuild mindset. Our window is open....I like less bringing in some kid in the draft, that may not ripen for 2-3 years, when a guy like Ertz could be have at that 8.2 million figure, which is a no brainer

 

Ertz is still a good player in a mess in Philly. The OL was in shambles, QB situation crazy, an this was not Ertzs fault. 

 

BTW still have high hopes for Knox. Think he'll take a step this year.

 

These draft pics are going to start becoming very precious as the tight meaning of the belt giving out the big contracts like for Josh Allen we need our draft picks and cannot be given them up for players that are probably going to get released anyway or similar talent

[RichRiderBills]

6 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

These draft pics are going to start becoming very precious as the tight meaning of the belt giving out the big contracts like for Josh Allen we need our draft picks and cannot be given them up for players that are probably going to get released anyway or similar talent

 

You have to keep an eye on this for sure, but the Bills play their cards right they can be there. We're not talking Herchescel Walker deals here. 

[Orlando Tim]

I am surprised how many people are willing to pay a pass catching tight end good money when our needs are in most other ways. We have pass catchers, we need RB and OL on that side of the ball.

[IgotBILLStopay]

9 hours ago, Rubes said:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/07/report-multiple-teams-have-interest-in-zach-ertz-with-trade-possible-in-coming-days/

 

 

30-year old 3-time Pro Bowler coming off a down year. Set to make a base salary of $8.25 million next year.

 

No mention of specific teams. Not sure if Beane would trade away picks for Ertz, but it's possible...

 

8+ mill a bit too rich with Ertz’s declining skills and  this market

[Southern_Bills]

Eagles are in salary cap trouble, this equates to a salary dump so unless a bid war starts the compensation will be low.

 

If you could get him for a late round pick on the understanding he takes a pay cut sure.

 

But that's alot to ask of a player, only thing I will say is the Bills are a good team so more likely to happen for us than a team that hasn't proven they can win.

[YoloinOhio]

Colts 

[BillsFan130]

9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Because he's 30. He might prefer an extra year or two on his contract with more total guaranteed. I don't typically like trading for players on the last year of their contract but if you do it with an extension built in it makes a ton of sense. Ertz and Knox would be a very good tight end room for 2-3 years.

Bills are a heavy 11 personnel offence though.

 

You add Ertz and you have to go 12 personnel if you want ertz and knox on the field at the same time which really doesn't fit the bills offensive identity. 

[SoCal Deek]

6 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Bills are a heavy 11 personnel offence though.

 

You add Ertz and you have to go 12 personnel if you want ertz and knox on the field at the same time which really doesn't fit the bills offensive identity. 

True...but doesn’t their personnel dictate a lot of that? Bring in another pass catching TE and I’m guessing you’d see a shift in their offensive scheme. In fact, it makes you wonder if this one move wouldn’t be way cheaper then trying to fix RB and OL all in one offseason. I’m not necessarily voting for it but it’s a thought.

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

I just think he is likely to be let go ..

 

I don’t like the situation of giving up a pick ( even a day 3 one) ... paying him $8M in 2021 and then trying to negotiate an extension...what are you going to pay him in 2022 and beyond?

 

I have outlined other options I prefer to do in the thread if interested ...

 

 

He’s not going to be cut because someone will trade for him.  He is in demand, so trading for him insures you get him vs him being a FA.  And his cost is going to be cheap in terms of trade value, so someone will more than likely pull the trigger instead of just waiting for him to be cut and hoping you can recruit him over other options.

 

And where our roster is at right now,  very hard for later round picks to make this roster, so I can see Beane trading day 3 pick for him IF he wants Ertz.

 

And honestly I do think it makes a lot of sense.  He’s a guy who can help us win now while also helping Knox continue to develop by learning from one of the best TE’s over the last decade.

 

That being said, there are a lot of options available in FA and a few more like Ertz, Njoku, and OJ Howard that are probably available cheap in trade this offseason.  So Ertz isn’t a “must” get either and we dont yet know Beanes preferred targets at TE.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Why would he want to restructure if a team trades for him and they have to pay his $8.25M salary and he hits Free agency next year?

I would be furious if the Bills gave up a pick and did that..

 

This.  Well, I wouldn't be furious, but given the fact that we'd have to pay him $8M with a tight cap and we'd essentially be giving up a draft pick for a year rental, I don't see it as a good move.  It's what you do if you're getting an impact player, and Ertz was NOT an impact player last season.  In fact, in the glimpses I saw, he looked like he pretty much sucked.  I grant you he was playing for a QB who looked like he flat out sucked, but it just looked as though he was making "career decisions" and phoning it in.

 

The problem with making career decisions and phoning it in, is that it's a harder habit to break than I think guys realize.  Marcel Dareus was all "phone it in" under Rex then when things changed his handset was still off the hook.  Ditto Mario Williams, Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones etc.

 

58 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Colts 

 

Because Ertz played so hard for, and had such a good time playing with, Wentz last season?

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

For those that don't think Ertz is worth a pick, we're talking about a day 3 pick. If the Bills drafted a TE on day 3 no one would bat an eye. The cap hit really isn't that bad and with Ertz here we could cut John Brown (Ertz would contribute more in the passing game this year, book it). Draft another WR on day 1 or 2, add some speed at RB, and our offense is set in 2021.

This. I wasn't opposed but also wasn't that eager to trade a pick for Ertz, but well put. I like your plan for the offense (with the addition of shoring up the offensive line in both FA and the draft).

 

We really need to add a speed element to our rushing attack or defenses will never fear getting beaten to the corners. With our passing-heavy offense, we should be drafting a WR every year (again more speed!) and I'd love to draft Teven Jenkins at #30 if he's there or Quinn Meinerz on Day 2. An injection of power and nastiness on cheap contracts with either guy. Get er done Beane!

[BillsFan130]

58 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

True...but doesn’t their personnel dictate a lot of that? Bring in another pass catching TE and I’m guessing you’d see a shift in their offensive scheme. In fact, it makes you wonder if this one move wouldn’t be way cheaper then trying to fix RB and OL all in one offseason. I’m not necessarily voting for it but it’s a thought.

Ya I see what you’re saying.

 

I just don’t think the bills are going to switch up what they do best though , which is 11 personnel.

 

Will they use 12 some times or some games?

 

Sure I think they will as daboll is a very matchup based coach.

 

But Allen is most comfortable in 11, that’s what they do best in, and I can’t see them bringing in a veteran TE who is going to cost a lot when they are already pressed up against the cap.

 

Just my opinion sir, I could be wrong.

[BuffaloRebound]

Assuming Lee Smith retires, you’d still need an in-Line Tight End.  A Gronk-type fits much better with Knox if we’re not giving up on him and not sure why we would.  

[Fan in Chicago]

27 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Assuming Lee Smith retires, you’d still need an in-Line Tight End.  A Gronk-type fits much better with Knox if we’re not giving up on him and not sure why we would.  

We shouldn't give up on Knox for perhaps another season but he should be a #2 TE until he proves otherwise. For now, the returns aren't great so Bills should definitely be looking for a more reliable TE even as a 2 year rental. 

I am not advocating Ertz at $8 mm/year given the past seasons stats. But also saying that the team doesn't have the luxury of waiting for yet another year for Knox to make an impact. And I really hope Kroft is kicked out last year 

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I am surprised how many people are willing to pay a pass catching tight end good money when our needs are in most other ways. We have pass catchers, we need RB and OL on that side of the ball.

Did you watch our offense in either game vs KC last year?  If you did, I’m sure you realized that our offense also needs to improve and become less one dimensional. How did our pass catchers do playing against a dime D all game?  They couldn’t get open.  Having the ability to run some 2 TE sets and add a TE that our QB has confidence in would really help in that regard.

[Dkollidas]

2 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Bills are a heavy 11 personnel offence though.

 

You add Ertz and you have to go 12 personnel if you want ertz and knox on the field at the same time which really doesn't fit the bills offensive identity. 

I think it opens up the ability to be more multiple. With the  

Erhardt-Perkins offense Daboll runs, they can do a lot of the same concepts from multiple formations. Especially when you have two tight ends like Ertz & Knox, plus receivers like Beasley/Diggs/Davis. 
 

More 12 personnel would also likely make it easier to run more gap/man blocking than we were in 2020 with the amount of shot gun/empty back field/11 personnel we ran. 
 

I also believe if they got Ertz they would have an agreement lined up to do something with his contract to make 2021 an easier cap hit to swallow

[Boxcar]

10 hours ago, NewEra said:

I don’t disagree.  I’m not sure if Ertz can change the dynamics of our offense.  If they think he can, than they would pull the trigger for a late rd pick imo. 
 

I don’t agree that “anyone can catch a check down”.  After watching the bills play in detail this year, one conclusion that I came to: Josh allen doesn’t trust Dawson knox....especially on check  

 

I agree knox is a better athlete and can be a problem for the D when he catches the ball.   It’s not about ertz being better than knox or replacing him. It’s about having both of them and using their skill sets in 1 and 2TE sets.  I hope we don’t plan on Sweeney or Gilliam being our #2TE.  We should be trying to acquire another TE

I really don't think this was true at the end of the year. Josh was going to Knox quite a bit and he made some crazy catches.

 

Knox is frustrating when he drops those fairly easy passes, but I don't know why we'd think he will continue that way when he's shown he can make tough catches regularly. Knox had an obvious progression last season, and if he didn't go to Knox as much, it probably has more to do with having two of the top 5? route runners at WR who can gain seperation whenever they want.

[BillsFan130]

9 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

I think it opens up the ability to be more multiple. With the  

Erhardt-Perkins offense Daboll runs, they can do a lot of the same concepts from multiple formations. Especially when you have two tight ends like Ertz & Knox, plus receivers like Beasley/Diggs/Davis. 
 

More 12 personnel would also likely make it easier to run more gap/man blocking than we were in 2020 with the amount of shot gun/empty back field/11 personnel we ran. 
 

I also believe if they got Ertz they would have an agreement lined up to do something with his contract to make 2021 an easier cap hit to swallow

Do you really want to spend 8-11 million on a player who would basically be a luxury and not a "need" though?

 

I get it, they would be better with Ertz.

 

How much better is the real question. Especially when they Bills do employ a lot of 10-11 personnel, and keeping in mind they are tight against the cap as is with much bigger holes to fill. (Darryl williams or replacement, Felciano or replacement, pass rusher, potential CB2, potential milano replacement)

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, Boxcar said:

I really don't think this was true at the end of the year. Josh was going to Knox quite a bit and he made some crazy catches.

 

Knox is frustrating when he drops those fairly easy passes, but I don't know why we'd think he will continue that way when he's shown he can make tough catches regularly. Knox had an obvious progression last season, and if he didn't go to Knox as much, it probably has more to do with having two of the top 5? route runners at WR who can gain seperation whenever they want.

We think this will continue because it continues.  He caught 54% of his targets, worst in the team iirc.  His blocking ability is among the worst in the league.  He has a lot of trouble sustaining his blocks once he makes contact. As a lead blocker, he’s pretty terrible and led to a bunch of blown runs because....he couldn’t sustain his blocks.  
 

I don’t hate knox.  I like him.  Defense don’t care about him and that has an affect on our offense.  Adding ertz or another TE isn’t about getting rid of knox imo, it’s about adding a dangerous 2 TE set to our arsenal.