Could John Brown be Released Next Off-Season?

[Aussie Joe]

Next year they will be in peak Super Bowl window with JA on the last year of his rookie deal...

 

The Bills are in an arms race with KC....

 

You do not get rid of one of your biggest weapons to save a few measly dollars...

[BillsCuse]

That contract is a great deal for his production, you absolutely keep him.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

Hell, I would possibly even give my left nut if there was a way we could get Star back for this team in the playoffs to be just a little more stout in the middle.  

 

Tangential question:  Why do folks always offer their "left nut"?  

 

Is it like putting your "best foot forward", or is Rightie so much better that Leftie can serve as a spare?

 

 

[dollars 2 donuts]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Tangential question:  Why do folks always offer their "left nut"?  

 

Is it like putting your "best foot forward", or is Rightie so much better that Leftie can serve as a spare?

 

 

 

For me it is because I am right nut dominant.  If I lose it I’m worried I’d end up walking around in circles from an equilibrium imbalance.

[FLFan]

I seriously doubt the Bills want to open a hole where there does not need to be one.  If judgement is that Brown’s injuries are behind him and will not affect him going forward, then he will be here.  Davis cannot provide the speed that Brown does.  

Edited December 11, 2020 by FLFan

[Mr. WEO]

9 hours ago, Halloween Land said:

Morse's salary next year is $10,375,000 with a dead cap of $5,500,000. 2022 would be more favorable to release him with a $2,750,000 dead cap hit. 

 

So spend $13,125,000 to save $5,500,000?

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Tangential question:  Why do folks always offer their "left nut"?  

 

Is it like putting your "best foot forward", or is Rightie so much better that Leftie can serve as a spare?

 

 

 

 

It's, on most men, the lower hanging fruit.

[Jpsredemption]

I keep John Brown and target another deep threat in the draft. 

[Motor26]

7 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Think he either restructures fairly significantly as in pay cut or he's gone.  Cut Brown Morse, Butler, and Smith saves $22.1M   Cut Addison could save another $6.25M.  The $22M would allow them to resign Mongo, Milano, & Williamsand some mid range FA signings depending on the actual cap, maybe a legit edge rusher to replace Addison.

 

While they don't use WAR in football directly, thinking about it from that standpoint, IMO justifies cutting Brown and have Davis take his spot and McKenzie Hodgins takes Davis role.

 

To the comments about surrounding Allen with as many weapons, those weapons are Mongo, and Williams.  Think they need them more than Brown.

We have the best Bills team in 20+ years why would you want to ruin the continuity? Cut Butler, Smith and Addison but no reason to cut starters like Brown or Morse. 

[letsgoteam]

13 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Good question.  I'm not sure what their agents think they are worth.  I bet they want multiple years contracts going forward.

True. That is a good point. 

 

I do think those guys are super team players though, it does need to rewarded somewhat.

 McKenzie I believe I heard the story of once his tender wasnt signed, he told his agent that if the Bills still wanted him on the team, to get it done. Also Andre Roberts (and Marlowe) were cut at the very beginning of the season so the Bills could make some roster moves before resigning him. He could have signed anywhere, and Im sure beforehand it was like, "hey, we love you, do us this solid, and we will resign you asap!"

[machine gun kelly]

21 hours ago, SCBills said:

I think Davis has big time potential, but I'm not cutting John Brown after this year UNLESS they are planning on using his cap savings to help re-sign Feliciano, Williams & Milano, then draft a speed WR in the 1st Round.

 

This Offense is built around a solid OL, stud QB and 4 very good WR's.  The trade-off is average playmakers at RB & TE.  Can't have everything (unless you're KC apparently)..  4 good WR's is paramount to this Offense and allows us to still have 3, even when someone like Brown goes down for some games. 

Well said SC.  Brown’s not going anywhere.  If a person has eyes, they’ll see (not you) the difference when Brown is healthy in our offense, or similarly this like threads about Milano.  Look at healthy Milano playing and it makes our defense work.  We have a line looking like it’s coming together, and maybe we even see more running this week.

 

The key about this week is the Bills defense has been able to take away opposing offenses best thing like Henry to under 80 yards, etc.  What will they take away from the Steelers.  My thought is in The Bills will take Conner away as it’s his first post Covid IR and active, and make the Steelers needing to pass over 50 times, and have to take 8 minutes to actually matriculate the ball down the field.  We light their defense up with Allen’s big time throws and bingo bango, we win.

[Thurman#1]

Possible.

 

But they need him.

[BarleyNY]

22 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

Restructure is my guess. 

You can’t really restructure the last year of a contract.  You can extend it and lower the first year cap hit or you can ask a player to take a cut, but that’s about it except for cutting/trading the player.  The only possibility - and I’ve never seen this done on a one year deal or know if the league would approve it - would be to add voidable years to the current one year deal and pay out most of the salary as a signing bonus.  That would just kick some of the cap hit to next season while paying him the same.  I’d think him playing out his deal or an extension would be more likely. 

[BarleyNY]

22 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I've thought about it but I think they want to keep the continuity.  I  can honestly see Morse being released....does he have a big dead cap hit?

 

$5.5M dead cap, savings of $4.9M.  Morse is definitely a candidate to be cut (or traded).  The contract we signed him to was comfortably over market value at the time, but that happens in FA and I get why we did it.  He has been good overall, but probably not up to that contract (which was expected).  He hasn’t exactly had world beating OGs next to him and that makes it difficult on a C.

 

His concussion issues - which were a known risk at signing - have continued and that very well might be what tips the scales against him.  I think the Bills move on from him this offseason or next.  They can fill his spot with a slightly lesser player with less injury/concussion concerns for substantially less. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

8 hours ago, Motor26 said:

We have the best Bills team in 20+ years why would you want to ruin the continuity? Cut Butler, Smith and Addison but no reason to cut starters like Brown or Morse. 

 

Yes they have the best team in 20 years, but is it really good enough to win the Super Bowl and are they one of the top 4 teams in the league.  They need improvement at CB, LB, O-line ( five lineman are upcoming FA) TE so can't see how they can afford to keep everyone when you have replacements with little drop off in talent.  Throw in upcoming contracts to Allen, Edmunds, Hyde something needs to give. 

 

Brown was paid $8M at the time being looked at as the #1 WR on the team, now with Diggs here,  paying that much to a #2 WR doesn't seem very smart.  He may be back, but not on the existing contract, will likely need to take a big cut.  On the line could see it coming down to a choice between Feleciano or cutting Morse to pay for him.

[TheFunPolice]

I was surprised to see that the Bills have the 2nd most expensive roster in the league, behind the Colts, who are #1. 

 

I think some moves will be made in a few areas.

 

The Bills have, relative to the entire NFL (this is according to Spotrac):

the most expensive DL group

the 3rd most expensive DB group

the 4th most expensive WR corps

the 6th most expensive OL

12th most expensive TE group

 

Now, you might look at that and think Brown could be in trouble. However, this offense uses the WR a ton, and has gotten value and production for that investment, so I think they stick with them all. 

 

The Bills could allow the following contracts to expire, saving around 31.1 million:

 

Trent Murphy (saves $9 million)

Tyler Kroft  (saves 6.5 million)

Ty Nseke (saves $5 million)

Josh Norman (saves $6 million)

TJ Yeldon (saves 1.6 million)

Brian Winters (saves 3 million)

 

There will be money and cap space to work with, either way. When your team gets good, you've got to make tougher choices. 

Edited December 11, 2020 by TheFunPolice

[CaptnCoke11]

I hope not.  Let him play the last year of his deal.  

[QLBillsFan]

13 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

I was surprised to see that the Bills have the 2nd most expensive roster in the league, behind the Colts, who are #1. 

 

I think some moves will be made in a few areas.

 

The Bills have, relative to the entire NFL (this is according to Spotrac):

the most expensive DL group

the 3rd most expensive DB group

the 4th most expensive WR corps

the 6th most expensive OL

12th most expensive TE group

 

Now, you might look at that and think Brown could be in trouble. However, this offense uses the WR a ton, and has gotten value and production for that investment, so I think they stick with them all. 

 

The Bills could allow the following contracts to expire, saving around 31.1 million:

 

Trent Murphy (saves $9 million)

Tyler Kroft  (saves 6.5 million)

Ty Nseke (saves $5 million)

Josh Norman (saves $6 million)

TJ Yeldon (saves 1.6 million)

Brian Winters (saves 3 million)

 

There will be money and cap space to work with, either way. When your team gets good, you've got to make tougher choices. 

Now those are logical contracts to look at vs production. While smoke is a significant threat who has to be accounted for. Any combination of these to keep smoke and Morse as well. OL depth is outstanding and part of the reason we are scoring 30 pts a game. 

[BADOLBILZ]

14 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

I was surprised to see that the Bills have the 2nd most expensive roster in the league, behind the Colts, who are #1. 

 

The Bills could allow the following contracts to expire, saving around 31.1 million:

 

Trent Murphy (saves $9 million)

Tyler Kroft  (saves 6.5 million)

Ty Nseke (saves $5 million)

Josh Norman (saves $6 million)

TJ Yeldon (saves 1.6 million)

Brian Winters (saves 3 million)

 

There will be money and cap space to work with, either way. When your team gets good, you've got to make tougher choices. 

 

 

 

You don't save cap room letting contracts expire,  TFP.

 

The prospective cap figure for the following year does not include expired contracts from the previous season.

 

[SCBills]

14 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

I was surprised to see that the Bills have the 2nd most expensive roster in the league, behind the Colts, who are #1. 

 

I think some moves will be made in a few areas.

 

The Bills have, relative to the entire NFL (this is according to Spotrac):

the most expensive DL group

the 3rd most expensive DB group

the 4th most expensive WR corps

the 6th most expensive OL

12th most expensive TE group

 

Now, you might look at that and think Brown could be in trouble. However, this offense uses the WR a ton, and has gotten value and production for that investment, so I think they stick with them all. 

 

The Bills could allow the following contracts to expire, saving around 31.1 million:

 

Trent Murphy (saves $9 million)

Tyler Kroft  (saves 6.5 million)

Ty Nseke (saves $5 million)

Josh Norman (saves $6 million)

TJ Yeldon (saves 1.6 million)

Brian Winters (saves 3 million)

 

There will be money and cap space to work with, either way. When your team gets good, you've got to make tougher choices. 

Interesting info.  
 

OL and WR will, and should, always be high cap hit areas for us, but DL will drop dramatically when we let Murphy walk and cut one (or both) of Butler/Jefferson.. DB will drop when we let Norman walk.. TE will drop when Kroft walks. 

[Don Otreply]

On 12/10/2020 at 6:10 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Tangential question:  Why do folks always offer their "left nut"?  

 

Is it like putting your "best foot forward", or is Rightie so much better that Leftie can serve as a spare?

 

 

This ^^^ this right here is the sort of stuff that makes TSW  then best team forum ever! 

 

Hapless that was JFG, 

[ChevyVanMiller]

On 12/10/2020 at 9:08 AM, Halloween Land said:

Looking at his 2021 salary from Spotrac.com, releasing Brown would save $8.15 million from the cap and only $1.6 million in dead cap. He is a great player to have but with Gabriel Davis playing well and Brown dealing with injuries this year, I can see him being released. What do you guys think? 

You can’t release the guy that came back for the last two games of the season, lead the team in receiving yards in the post season and caught the game-winning TD in the Super Bowl. How can you even pose such a question?

 

Oh nuts, I keep forgetting that I’m not supposed to divulge anything when I use the machine to traverse the time/space continuum. My bad, please look this way.

[below]

They could have saved similar money this year by cutting Murphy and they did not.

 

The cap situation isn't bad. They can free up enough money by restructuring a few contracts and releasing less-critical players.

 

Brown is a very good WR and well worth his salary. No chance they cut him.

[pigpen65]

Brown is awesome, and he's a big piece of the best recieving corps Buffalo had had since Reed, Lofton, and Beebe. It would be a terrible desicion to lose him. Theres lots of other places to save money if the need arrises, way before Brown.

Edited December 12, 2020 by pigpen65

[SCBills]

26 minutes ago, pigpen65 said:

Brown is awesome, and he's a big piece of the best recieving corps Buffalo had had since Reed, Lofton, and Beebe. It would be a terrible desicion to lose him. Theres lots of other places to save money if the need arrises, way before Brown.

I think it’s only a question due to the same reason Milano is a question.... availability.  
 

Brown hasn’t been active/not hobbled since Week 3.  
 

I’m thinking we let Murphy/Kroft/Norman walk and then cut one of Butler/Jefferson to free up money with Star coming back.   Then I think we’ll re-sign Feliciano and Williams to keep the OL in tact.  That “could”, depending on the cap, leave a decision between Milano and Brown.  If it doesn’t - great! - but if it does.. would we rather sign Milano and potentially draft a Rd 1/2 speed WR or keep Brown and potentially draft a Rd 1/2 LB?  

[Hampton Josh fan]

Smoke is a great receiver for the vertical pass game and has good chemistry with JA. With him on the field with  Diggs, that's a lethal tandem. He played through a tough high ankle sprain until he couldn't go any longer. This makes a case for keeping him going forward. Why dump this talented receiver after he put Josh on the map in 2019 along with Beasley and that confidence laid the groundwork for the offense we're seeing now.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

Smoke is a great receiver for the vertical pass game and has good chemistry with JA. With him on the field with  Diggs, that's a lethal tandem. He played through a tough high ankle sprain until he couldn't go any longer. This makes a case for keeping him going forward. Why dump this talented receiver after he put Josh on the map in 2019 along with Beasley and that confidence laid the groundwork for the offense we're seeing now.

 

 

 

I think he was helped off the field after the high ankle sprain and never returned..........was put on IR a week later.    But he was nagged by a bunch of injuries all season and favoring them might very well have caused the high ankle sprain.   I agree he is very important to what they do.......I really hope they do not release him.   Would love to see he and Diggs healthy together for a full season because I really think his deep speed opens things up for Diggs.    When he's not in there Diggs gets turned into a dink and dunk option.    When Brown is on the field suddenly Diggs' routes are ran out past the sticks instead of in front of them.

 

[klos63]

Extend him, lower his cap hit and keep him 2 more seasons.

[Hampton Josh fan]

34 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I think he was helped off the field after the high ankle sprain and never returned..........was put on IR a week later.    But he was nagged by a bunch of injuries all season and favoring them might very well have caused the high ankle sprain.   I agree he is very important to what they do.......I really hope they do not release him.   Would love to see he and Diggs healthy together for a full season because I really think his deep speed opens things up for Diggs.    When he's not in there Diggs gets turned into a dink and dunk option.    When Brown is on the field suddenly Diggs' routes are ran out past the sticks instead of in front of them.

 

Agree with that and he's a team guy that never complains about getting more throws and always has positive body language  He's a keeper if he can stay on the field. 

[BBills88]

I hope is not, he is still effective within the scheme of the offense.

[YattaOkasan]

On 12/11/2020 at 7:53 AM, BarleyNY said:

You can’t really restructure the last year of a contract.  You can extend it and lower the first year cap hit or you can ask a player to take a cut, but that’s about it except for cutting/trading the player.  The only possibility - and I’ve never seen this done on a one year deal or know if the league would approve it - would be to add voidable years to the current one year deal and pay out most of the salary as a signing bonus.  That would just kick some of the cap hit to next season while paying him the same.  I’d think him playing out his deal or an extension would be more likely. 

I think it’s extensions for brown and Morse.  Make their salaries into a signing bonuses and give them a smaller salary on the extra year. Brown is not gonna get 9 mil with another team. Offer him 8 mil as a signing bonus and make his 2021 salary vet minimum with a 2022 salary of 5-6 mil. He would be under contact for 13-14mil for two years which is a bit of an overlay but works with cap things well (4mil in savings for 2021)

[biggerdaddynj]

3 hours ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

Smoke is a great receiver for the vertical pass game and has good chemistry with JA. With him on the field with  Diggs, that's a lethal tandem. He played through a tough high ankle sprain until he couldn't go any longer. This makes a case for keeping him going forward. Why dump this talented receiver after he put Josh on the map in 2019 along with Beasley and that confidence laid the groundwork for the offense we're seeing now.

 

Agreed—Smoke is vertical which helps in multiple ways.  And, Davis appears to have the potential to develop into the big bodied WR we’ve needed for years (we need at least one WR who can go up and get the ball when he’s covered and use his size to body up the mostly smaller CBs).  Two different roles (add Diggs and Cole and Josh has four varieties of WRs to choose from—think that’s been a big part in Josh’s development).  

Edited December 13, 2020 by biggerdaddynj

[Hampton Josh fan]

4 minutes ago, biggerdaddynj said:

Agreed—Smoke is vertical which helps in multiple ways.  And, Davis appears to have the potential to develop into the big bodied WR we’ve needed for years (we need at least one WR who can go up and get the ball when he’s covered and use his size to body up the mostly smaller CBs).  Two different roles (add Diggs and Cole and Josh has four varieties of WRs to choose from—think that’s been a big part in Josh’s development).  

Sometimes you stand pat with superior skill players that just fit perfectly with the  scheme that supports the talent of a physical freak that trusts all of his options. Your point about Davis being the big high point , red zone threat that we've been desperate for, is a good one. If we can run block for Motor and Moss, setting up Josh to just stand in and pick out wide open crossers, this can be as prolific an offense as any in the NFL.

 

 

[machine gun kelly]

We don’t know where we are year with Davis and Hodgins.  Davis has been a fourth WR, and done well.  That is very different than a #2.  These coaches and Mgmt will know to keep Diggs, Brown and Beasely.  Brown and Beasely are 30 and 31.  I know Brown is up after next year, and Beasely has one beyond that.  To get top flight WR’s at $9 mil, and $7.25 mil. Is another great deal for Beane.  Even Diggs who leads the league in receptions and targets, even with his escalation of his current contract (notice I said escalation as we didn’t increase his salary, we just moved it up for him) we still had a deal in our WR corps.

 

Davis and Hodgins could be our future, or not.  Drafting for even a HOF GM like Polian and Wolf believe they only hit around 57-58% lifetime for them.  I’m encouraged so don’t get me wrong, but I’m not giving up a fantastic tool for us in Brown.  If he gets extended as suggested for two years, that’s fine, and Beasely won’t be here after his contract.  Just roll with what you have and take you’re time developing the big guys.  They might end up #2 and #3 down the road, and Bills fans would be happy.  Keep McKenzie around as long as he remains this quick.  His speed will fade in a couple of years, but is a very valuable asset right now.  Don’t mess with what brought you here.  We, I can’t believe I’m saying it because it hasn’t been since the Kelly years are a high powered offense based on a very dynamic passing offense.  I would never give up Brown as of now.  Why?  Because he’s hurt.

[ColoradoBills]

4 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

We don’t know where we are year with Davis and Hodgins.  Davis has been a fourth WR, and done well.  That is very different than a #2.  These coaches and Mgmt will know to keep Diggs, Brown and Beasely.  Brown and Beasely are 30 and 31.  I know Brown is up after next year, and Beasely has one beyond that.  To get top flight WR’s at $9 mil, and $7.25 mil. Is another great deal for Beane.  Even Diggs who leads the league in receptions and targets, even with his escalation of his current contract (notice I said escalation as we didn’t increase his salary, we just moved it up for him) we still had a deal in our WR corps.

 

Davis and Hodgins could be our future, or not.  Drafting for even a HOF GM like Polian and Wolf believe they only hit around 57-58% lifetime for them.  I’m encouraged so don’t get me wrong, but I’m not giving up a fantastic tool for us in Brown.  If he gets extended as suggested for two years, that’s fine, and Beasely won’t be here after his contract.  Just roll with what you have and take you’re time developing the big guys.  They might end up #2 and #3 down the road, and Bills fans would be happy.  Keep McKenzie around as long as he remains this quick.  His speed will fade in a couple of years, but is a very valuable asset right now.  Don’t mess with what brought you here.  We, I can’t believe I’m saying it because it hasn’t been since the Kelly years are a high powered offense based on a very dynamic passing offense.  I would never give up Brown as of now.  Why?  Because he’s hurt.

 

Yep.  His leg will mend.  He's not a horse.

[GreggTX]

I doubt it. Bad move to let a quality WR go. If Knox continues to struggle, I can see us playing a lot of 4 WR sets in '21.

[GreggTX]

10 hours ago, SCBills said:

I think it’s only a question due to the same reason Milano is a question.... availability.  
 

Brown hasn’t been active/not hobbled since Week 3.  
 

I’m thinking we let Murphy/Kroft/Norman walk and then cut one of Butler/Jefferson to free up money with Star coming back.   Then I think we’ll re-sign Feliciano and Williams to keep the OL in tact.  That “could”, depending on the cap, leave a decision between Milano and Brown.  If it doesn’t - great! - but if it does.. would we rather sign Milano and potentially draft a Rd 1/2 speed WR or keep Brown and potentially draft a Rd 1/2 LB?  

I agree on Murphy and Norman. Kroft and Feliciano are fine as backups. I hope we keep Williams and sign/draft a G to push Ford. I don't much care if Lotulelei comes back or not. He is costing us way more than he's worth.

Edited December 13, 2020 by GreggTX

[Sharky7337]

12 hours ago, pigpen65 said:

Brown is awesome, and he's a big piece of the best recieving corps Buffalo had had since Reed, Lofton, and Beebe. It would be a terrible desicion to lose him. Theres lots of other places to save money if the need arrises, way before Brown.

In 2002 moulds and price both had 1200 yards josh Reed was the number 3 so i might say since then.

 

Edited December 13, 2020 by Sharky7337

[machine gun kelly]

5 hours ago, GreggTX said:

I agree on Murphy and Norman. Kroft and Feliciano are fine as backups. I hope we keep Williams and sign/draft a G to push Ford. I don't much care if Lotulelei comes back or not. He is costing us way more than he's worth.

Feliciano a back up?  Ford will be fortunate to start.  Boettger looks great and has been developed by this staff for two years.  Our O Line gave Allen so much time last week against a top 5 defense all year in SF.  The week before we ran for over 200 yards.  I completely understand Kroft, Murphy, Norman, and possible one of the defensive lineman.

[BarleyNY]

16 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

I think it’s extensions for brown and Morse.  Make their salaries into a signing bonuses and give them a smaller salary on the extra year. Brown is not gonna get 9 mil with another team. Offer him 8 mil as a signing bonus and make his 2021 salary vet minimum with a 2022 salary of 5-6 mil. He would be under contact for 13-14mil for two years which is a bit of an overlay but works with cap things well (4mil in savings for 2021)

If Brown were to be extended I see it similarly.  He’s a speed WR who is 30 now so inking him to a new contract that - however long it is on paper - is really a 2 year deal makes a lot of sense.  I could see that happening and it would be a good move if the money is right.  I’d be good with that or having him play out his last season. 

 

Morse is not getting a real extension though.  He’s got two years left on his contract after this one, he will be 30 at the end of it and he’s already had 5 known concussions.  The only exception would be if the Bills restructured and/or extended his contract to lower his compensation and/or to move some of 2021’s cap hit out.  But that would not be done with the intention of keeping him around longer.  His current contract is so front loaded that his new money ($7.6M & $8.5M) is not has significant as his overall AAV numbers ($11.1M) are.  That might keep him here another season or two.  But his concussion risk is now high enough that I could see the Bills moving on as early as this offseason.  If not, then next.  If I’m Beane that’s what I’d do.

Edited December 13, 2020 by BarleyNY

[YattaOkasan]

13 hours ago, GreggTX said:

I agree on Murphy and Norman. Kroft and Feliciano are fine as backups. I hope we keep Williams and sign/draft a G to push Ford. I don't much care if Lotulelei comes back or not. He is costing us way more than he's worth.

You should care if Star comes back because he has like 0 cap savings if we cut him or he retired. And we would still need to replace him.