Week 6: Chiefs at Bills (+5): Monday 5pm on Fox

[machine gun kelly]

The Chiefs, and Pats almost beat the Chiefs, and yesterday as great as the Chiefs have played, Mahomes had happy feet as Virgil mentioned, and my point is simply it is not that we will beat the Chiefs, but they can be beaten.  Beating the Titans though would be fun going into Monday.  I thought it was cool they added a day of rest for the Bills.

[Kwai San]

47 minutes ago, smuvtalker said:

As I typed it, I couldn't help but think to myself damn this is a straight rainbows, lollipops and sunshine type prediction...but my heart did the typing, not my mind....but that's what popped out, so I'm sticking to it!! 🙂  

 

(It could very well happen though!)

 

We can only hope right?  Good luck and GO BILLS!!!!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

44 minutes ago, TBBills Fan said:

Actually I think we will be bringing our A game.  No the Chiefs didnt play their best ball yesterday.   However, after their first loss in a while, you tend to see people re focus and work even harder, so I expect to see a fired up Chiefs team...losing will do that to competitive people.  Not sure why you think this is hard to comprehend

 

My point is that the Bills must have a giant Chip on their Shoulder at being asked by the NFL to game plan for 2 teams at once and then go play a team having a covid-19 outbreak, so they should be fired-up as well.

[TBBills Fan]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

My point is that the Bills must have a giant Chip on their Shoulder at being asked by the NFL to game plan for 2 teams at once and then go play a team having a covid-19 outbreak, so they should be fired-up as well.

 

 

I actually talked about that in another thread.  I believe in our coach and you bet he used all that is happening as a way to rally, create focus and motivate his guys.  I expect nothing less from this staff.. Finally we have good coaching and FO.

 

[Greg S]

I saw the early line for this game and it was the Chiefs favorite by 3.5

Edited October 12, 2020 by Greg S

[Pokebball]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

As the season went on I had a good feeling about the Bills being competitive in this game. At first when the Raiders beat the Chiefs, I was psyched because it means we had a better chance than we did a week or two ago. Then I sat with it and realized that good teams rarely lose twice in a row. I think the Chiefs losing this week makes the next one a bit less probable. 

...Or maybe I just need to shake of the 2000's from my memory. 

So are you saying the Bills should lose tomorrow night then?

[Big C]

2:00 for us PDTers. That really sucks. They should bump us to the prime spot and move the Cowboys/Cardinals up to the early game. 

[Chandemonium]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

As the season went on I had a good feeling about the Bills being competitive in this game. At first when the Raiders beat the Chiefs, I was psyched because it means we had a better chance than we did a week or two ago. Then I sat with it and realized that good teams rarely lose twice in a row. I think the Chiefs losing this week makes the next one a bit less probable. 

...Or maybe I just need to shake of the 2000's from my memory. 

I tend to think the reason good teams rarely lose 2 in a row is because good teams rarely lose, period. If football games were as simple as throwing dice each game would be a discrete outcome, with the probability of one completely unaffected by the previous outcome. With sports I don’t think you can completely discount the psychological effects of a loss on the players, and injuries that happen one game can have impacts that carry over to the next, but I still think the “good teams don’t lose 2 in a row” thing as a product of extra motivation or focus is overstated, if it exists. 

[Mango]

8 minutes ago, Chandemonium said:

I tend to think the reason good teams rarely lose 2 in a row is because good teams rarely lose, period. If football games were as simple as throwing dice each game would be a discrete outcome, with the probability of one completely unaffected by the previous outcome. With sports I don’t think you can completely discount the psychological effects of a loss on the players, and injuries that happen one game can have impacts that carry over to the next, but I still think the “good teams don’t lose 2 in a row” thing as a product of extra motivation or focus is overstated, if it exists. 

 

That is fair. Just tried looking up some numbers on it, and most what I found was Pats specific. But I would assume that is the same for a team who wins 12ish games in a season. Pats Brady/BB have only a slightly higher win % after a loss as they do .776 vs. .766.

[Chandemonium]

36 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

That is fair. Just tried looking up some numbers on it, and most what I found was Pats specific. But I would assume that is the same for a team who wins 12ish games in a season. Pats Brady/BB have only a slightly higher win % after a loss as they do .776 vs. .766.

That’s a one percent difference. Even if the sample size is the entire Brady/Belichick era, I’d be surprised if that was statistically significant due to the small number of games played in a football season and they’re the team most known for the not losing 2 in a row thing. 

[Mango]

1 minute ago, Chandemonium said:

That’s a one percent difference. Even if the sample size is the entire Brady/Belichick era, I’d be surprised if that was statistically significant due to the small number of games played in a football season and they’re the team most known for the not losing 2 in a row thing. 

That is what I was implying. I was agreeing with your point. Good team losing more than 4-ish games per year has about the same win percentage after a loss as they do on any other Sunday. 

[Beast]

Watkins reported out for up to two weeks.

[Kenosha2Buffalo]

My brain isn't processing Tuesday then Monday well... Keep thinking it's a bye week lol 

[Chandemonium]

2 hours ago, Mango said:

That is what I was implying. I was agreeing with your point. Good team losing more than 4-ish games per year has about the same win percentage after a loss as they do on any other Sunday. 

I know. I was getting at the stats being even more telling than I would’ve thought. 

[Jerome007]

I admit I love the 7PM and 5PM time slots. My kids can watch the whole games

[HalftimeAdjustment]

So, Josh said they definitely should not do the distance challenge the week of the Chiefs game. Seems Mahomes still wants to make this happen...

 

https://www.tmz.com/2020/10/12/patrick-mahomes-josh-allen-chiefs-bills-83-yards/

[Jerome007]

6 hours ago, TBBills Fan said:

Actually I think we will be bringing our A game.  No the Chiefs didnt play their best ball yesterday.   However, after their first loss in a while, you tend to see people re focus and work even harder, so I expect to see a fired up Chiefs team...losing will do that to competitive people.  Not sure why you think this is hard to comprehend

Or they could be shaken at having lost their invincibility aura as Superbowl Champs that were kicking butt. And scenario A or B... they are grown men that have proven to be mentally tough. Momentum from a game rarely goes to the next anyway. Last year the few losses they got were in a row... and they ended the season as Champs. What I like though., is the Raiders did show the Bills coaches things to focus on. 

[Scott7975]

31 minutes ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:

So, Josh said they definitely should not do the distance challenge the week of the Chiefs game. Seems Mahomes still wants to make this happen...

 

https://www.tmz.com/2020/10/12/patrick-mahomes-josh-allen-chiefs-bills-83-yards/

 

This is something they should do during the off season.  Could you imagine one of them injured their arm over something like this?

[The Dean]

Just now, Scott7975 said:

 

This is something they should do during the off season.  Could you imagine one of them injured their arm over something like this?

 

 

Completely agree. In fact, I think this is something they should do when they are done playing football. 

[billsfan5121]

While it wouldn’t be an official competition, does anyone think each QB will air out at least one deep one? And I’m not talking 45 yards, but try to hit someone in stride 65 yards? That’s tough to do because you generally wouldn’t have time for that, but I can see each of them trying at least one really deep one 

[YoloinOhio]

46 minutes ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:

So, Josh said they definitely should not do the distance challenge the week of the Chiefs game. Seems Mahomes still wants to make this happen...

 

https://www.tmz.com/2020/10/12/patrick-mahomes-josh-allen-chiefs-bills-83-yards/

Ok Kermit 

[Motor26]

6 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Ok Kermit 

Yeah let’s have Josh throw his arm out...no thank you. Mahomes already got his Super Bowl and got paid, maybe after Josh wins a Super Bowl I’d be cool with it.

[Scott7975]

18 minutes ago, billsfan5121 said:

While it wouldn’t be an official competition, does anyone think each QB will air out at least one deep one? And I’m not talking 45 yards, but try to hit someone in stride 65 yards? That’s tough to do because you generally wouldn’t have time for that, but I can see each of them trying at least one really deep one 

 

Oh I think they will.  I just hope it doesnt mentally get to Josh that he has to always one up Mahomes.

[HalftimeAdjustment]

7 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Oh I think they will.  I just hope it doesnt mentally get to Josh that he has to always one up Mahomes.

 

If by one up, we mean win one more Super Bowl than Mahomes... sure!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, billsfan5121 said:

While it wouldn’t be an official competition, does anyone think each QB will air out at least one deep one? And I’m not talking 45 yards, but try to hit someone in stride 65 yards? That’s tough to do because you generally wouldn’t have time for that, but I can see each of them trying at least one really deep one 

 

If it's there, they should take it same as any week.  Or if the need is for a Hail Mary.

 

Otherwise, No Way.  Play football, take what the defense gives you and do not have that enter your thought process.

[machine gun kelly]

Just thinking glass half full here if you’re not living in WNY now, then it’s nice for our out of towners to get two weeks of national tv listed games with TN and now the Chiefs.  I expected the Chiefs game to most likely get the national feed, but now we get them both.

 

Anyway, if we win tomorrow, it will make for some very interesting conversation on talk radio etc. on this game.  Serious hype.  This week, I noticed a couple of good matchups besides the Bills/Chiefs.  The Steelers/Browns should be decent with A rivalry 4-0, vs. 3-1, amd the Bucs/Packers with 3-2 vs. 5-0.  It’s always fun seeing the iconic QB’s compete with each other.

[TheBrownBear]

10 hours ago, Chandemonium said:

I tend to think the reason good teams rarely lose 2 in a row is because good teams rarely lose, period. If football games were as simple as throwing dice each game would be a discrete outcome, with the probability of one completely unaffected by the previous outcome. With sports I don’t think you can completely discount the psychological effects of a loss on the players, and injuries that happen one game can have impacts that carry over to the next, but I still think the “good teams don’t lose 2 in a row” thing as a product of extra motivation or focus is overstated, if it exists. 

 

Well, the Chiefs started 4-0 last year before dropping their next two games.  Lets hope history repeats itself.

[Mango]

20 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

 

Well, the Chiefs started 4-0 last year before dropping their next two games.  Lets hope history repeats itself.

yes and no. They did win a SB last year....

[NewEra]

I’m really happy that Sammy isn’t playing 

[Doc Brown]

Surprised this is our first time playing against Mahomes.  Seems like every year we played the Chiefs before he got in there.

[Putin]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

I’m really happy that Sammy isn’t playing 

I’m just hoping to get through this Titans game with a W and have ALL of our guys healthy and ready to roll against the Chiefs !!! 

Edited October 13, 2020 by Putin

[MJS]

49 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Surprised this is our first time playing against Mahomes.  Seems like every year we played the Chiefs before he got in there.

Yeah, I remember that. It was getting weird how much we played them. Like another divisional game.

 

[Rick 'r Mortis]

Ah man, that's my birfday. We always out for a birfday dinner. How she doesn't mind me streaming the game on my phone.

[vanhalen26]

Did they ever explain why 5pm?  I’m happy we get to play, but they should at least share why.

[ALF]

8 minutes ago, vanhalen26 said:

Did they ever explain why 5pm?  I’m happy we get to play, but they should at least share why.

 

I would guess they don't want to disrupt prime time programs.

 

Plus Cardinals vs Cowboys @ 8:15 on ESPN

Edited October 13, 2020 by ALF

[YoloinOhio]

55 minutes ago, vanhalen26 said:

Did they ever explain why 5pm?  I’m happy we get to play, but they should at least share why.

The speculation is that last time the nfl did this, espn squawked about the first game overlapping their game. And they pay a ton of money for MNF rights.

[The Dean]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

The speculation is that last time the nfl did this, espn squawked about the first game overlapping their game. And they pay a ton of money for MNF rights.

 

Yes, that is basically the reason, IMO. The Networks pay serious money for their contracts. ESPN's lone NFL product is Monday Night Football. The pandemic has made everyone a bit more flexible (thankfully) and ESPN allowed MNF to schedule another game, on another network. The games were staggered, so they  overlapped. It undoubtedly hurt the ESPN ratings for the night.

 

OTOH, Fox (and the NFL Network) loses their Thursday night game, and the ratings associated with it. Moving that premiere matchup into the Sunday clutter doesn't  nearly compensate them for that, and the NFL Network is cut out completely.

 

I see Monday 5pm, as a compromise to the networks involved and the Bills who now get an extra day to prepare after being forced into a Tuesday night game.  It ain't perfect. But it makes sense.

[RiotAct]

10 hours ago, NewEra said:

I’m really happy that Sammy isn’t playing 

agree... you just know he’d have a huge game against us if he were playing.

 

(okay, probably the BBFS in me talking, but still)

[FlaFitz1]

I didn't want to look ahead but I couldn't help it. 

 

I peeked.

 

The last time the Bills started 5-0 was 1991 and they beat the Fins, Steelers, Jets, Bucs and Bears while averaging 32 points per game.

 

The current addition of the Bills is averaging 31 points per game.

 

The 1991 Bills lost in week 6 to drop to 5-1.  They lost on Monday night to the Kansas City Chiefs 33-6

 

Ironic the Bills, with a win tonight will be 5-0 just like that 1991 team and facing the Chiefs on a Monday night in week 6.

[Greg S]

5 minutes ago, FlaFitz1 said:

I didn't want to look ahead but I couldn't help it. 

 

I peeked.

 

The last time the Bills started 5-0 was 1991 and they beat the Fins, Steelers, Jets, Bucs and Bears while averaging 32 points per game.

 

The current addition of the Bills is averaging 31 points per game.

 

The 1991 Bills lost in week 6 to drop to 5-1.  They lost on Monday night to the Kansas City Chiefs 33-6

 

Ironic the Bills, with a win tonight will be 5-0 just like that 1991 team and facing the Chiefs on a Monday night in week 6.

 

If I remember correctly that KC game was at Arrowhead. At least we get them at home this time. Although homefield doesn't count for much these days.