Che Guevara Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 (edited) Not sure if this has found its way into the discussion, but Nate Silver's 538 site has an article, "Is Josh Allen Actually Good Now?" Here's the link, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-josh-allen-actually-good-now/ Edited September 25, 2020 by Hapless Bills Fan fix link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziltoid Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Summary: We think players don't improve in the NFL, and he'll quickly return to his past performance level. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 How stupid Quote Josh Allen has had his share of doubters since entering the league. Perhaps his most outspoken critic — Jalen Ramsey — will be playing across the line of scrimmage from him this Sunday. Ramsey, a starting cornerback for the Los Angeles Rams, infamously described Allen as “trash” after the Bills selected him with the seventh overall pick in the 2018 draft. At the end of Allen’s 2018 rookie season, there weren’t many who would argue with Ramsey’s assessment Except for maybe Jalen Ramsey... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IgotBILLStopay Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 (edited) clickable link https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-josh-allen-actually-good-now/ Another negative nancy who confuses beliefs and preferences. Quote Given the Bills’ opponents so far, this should probably give us pause. Both the Jets and the Dolphins are rated as bottom-10 teams by our Elo rating system, while the Rams, the Bills’ upcoming Week 3 opponent, are a top-10 team. Everyone who has something negative to say about Allen uses the argument that the Dolphins and Jets suck. First, this is early in the year with too small a sample. If the Bills did well, their opponents, by construction, have to suck. Cant use their bad performance when facing Allen to make the argument that Allen is not strong enough since they are weak teams. Second, the Dolphins (who are supposedly so bad) just walloped the Jaguars, who walloped the Colts ... so who is weak now? Edited September 25, 2020 by IgotBILLStopay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motorin' Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 16 minutes ago, BeerLeagueHockey said: Summary: We think players don't improve in the NFL, and he'll quickly return to his past performance level. Exactly. Except that humans are not robots with programming code that have no room for growth and development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 This is the paragraph I take issue with: For quarterbacks, the stats that tend to be stable over time include passing efficiency from a clean pocket, passing efficiency with no play-action, completion percentage over expected and the share of throws that are off target or negatively graded. Each of these aspects of a QB’s performance is indicative of their true skill and is less affected by circumstances and luck. Stats that aren’t predictive of future performance — and that tend to be highly affected by circumstances and luck — include passing under pressure, passing outside the pocket and passing efficiency with play-action. In what world does a QB get to operate without pressure or stay purely in the pocket? And play-action is specifically designed to make a QB more successful. The author says that because Josh is performing well in these "non-predictive" areas we shouldn't count on his improvement to continue? That makes no sense to me. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mykidsdad Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 just because someone can write doesn't mean they should 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 (edited) People are gonna ***** all over the article. I think it's fine. FiveThirtyEight writers are the epitome of stat nerds. They're not watching football games, analyzing film, or breaking down individual plays. Very simply and specifically, they look at numbers -- a data set -- and make conclusions and predictions based off what the numbers are saying. Their conclusions are telling them Allen has improved. Their predictions are telling them his performance may regress to the mean in the coming weeks. If people are truly that bothered by the predictions of stat nerds, I suggest they learn a new strategy: It's called "stop caring what people you've never heard of think about Josh Allen". I've been trying it out the past couple weeks, and it's working wonders. Edited September 25, 2020 by Logic 8 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 11 minutes ago, eball said: For quarterbacks, the stats that tend to be stable over time include passing efficiency from a clean pocket, passing efficiency with no play-action, completion percentage over expected and the share of throws that are off target or negatively graded. Each of these aspects of a QB’s performance is indicative of their true skill and is less affected by circumstances and luck. Stats that aren’t predictive of future performance — and that tend to be highly affected by circumstances and luck — include passing under pressure, passing outside the pocket and passing efficiency with play-action. They link to a PFF article that is talking about projecting college QBs to the NFL. There's nothing there that says passing under pressure is not stable over time in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TH3 Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Why bother if to quote a bunch of stats if your are just going to disregard the good ones and throw out the present ones...just say TLDR - We think he sucked before...he will soon suck again..... Someone here had a much better description of the overall picture...What about all the sacks he breaks, the constant running threat, the extension of plays, the impossible 3rd down pick ups, the crazy throws that only a handful of guys can make. I watched last nights game and those QB's didn't throw a pass more that 10 yards.....all game How many 3 and outs do the Bills have....seems like 1 a game...17-12 as a starter when he never was even scheduled to start year one.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 37 minutes ago, Gene1973 said: Linky no worky I edited. Works now. Sometimes one has to post, then edit and hit "enter" after the link. I don't know why hitting "enter" work in the original posting doesn't work, but boards work in mysterious ways sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, Logic said: People are gonna ***** all over the article. I think it's fine. FiveThirtyEight writers are the epitome of stat nerds. They're not watching football games, analyzing film, or breaking down individual plays. Very simply and specifically, they look at numbers -- a data set -- and make conclusions and predictions based off what the numbers are saying. Their conclusions are telling them Allen has improved. Their predictions are telling them his performance may regress to the mean in the coming weeks. If people are truly that bothered by the predictions of stat nerds, I suggest they learn a new strategy: It's called "stop caring what people you've never heard of think about Josh Allen". I've been trying it out the past couple weeks, and it's working wonders. Fair. But stat nerds have no business evaluating certain players like Josh Allen who break the mold in several different ways. It's like taking off points for Russell Wilson or Kyler Murray because short QBs usually don't fare well in their model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tortured Soul Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Does anyone know the source of this statement in note 1? "Analytics staffers on NFL teams ranked the Bills among the top five most analytically advanced in the NFL." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Tortured Soul said: Does anyone know the source of this statement in note 1? "Analytics staffers on NFL teams ranked the Bills among the top five most analytically advanced in the NFL." Four out of five dentists said they barely crack the top ten so take it with a grain of salt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 51 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said: clickable link https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-josh-allen-actually-good-now/ Another negative nancy who confuses beliefs and preferences. Everyone who has something negative to say about Allen uses the argument that the Dolphins and Jets suck. First, this is early in the year with too small a sample. If the Bills did well, their opponents, by construction, have to suck. Cant use their bad performance when facing Allen to make the argument that Allen is not strong enough since they are weak teams. Second, the Dolphins (who are supposedly so bad) just walloped the Jaguars, who walloped the Colts ... so who is weak now? The Jets look like complete garbage and the worst team in the nfl. But he is going to be given some good tests to provE how far he has come. i don’t why people care about the media so much but if he plays well in these next few weeks, he will be given plenty of respect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 All of these pre-pubescent, never played a down of football in their life, hot takers are doubling down on Allen and praying he crashes because they were so sure he would be horrible and there’s no way their specific model could ever be wrong. They’re hacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 36 minutes ago, BeerLeagueHockey said: Summary: We think players don't improve in the NFL, and he'll quickly return to his past performance level. 🤷♂️ In general, habits are hard to change. Muscle memory in athletes is hard to change. Processing ability is hard to change. There's a list of starting QB in the NFL whose accuracy and ability to read the field unquestionably improved in the NFL. The list would include Steve Young (traded by his first team, "bust"), Drew Brees (first team drafted Phillip Rivers 'cuz they thought Brees couldn't play), Ryan Fitzpatrick (took him 5 years of playing in the league to crack 60% completions), Matt Stafford (3 years to crack 60%, 6 years to stay there consistently), Alex Smith (from "top 10 bust list" to solid starter - just took 6 years) - I'm sure I can think of others. Sam Bradford, perhaps. Then there are QB like Case Keenum, Nick Foles, and perhaps Mitch Trubisky who can have an all-world year with the right OC and talent around them, but regress badly when too many changes are made. Last, there are QB like Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, and yes, Pat Mahomes who looked very good once they started - but who sat on the bench 1-4 years before they stepped on the field as a starter. Would they have looked the same if they started right away? We'll never know. Of course, there is a much longer lists of QB who had "steps to take" coming into the NFL and who failed to take those steps. Allen is considered suspect by the "stats geeks" because unlike many of the other QBs named above, he didn't complete a high percentage of his passes in college. Ironically, the same stats mavens who claim to separate the effect of the talent around the QB from the QB's performance don't seem able to do this for Allen in college. Allen didn't follow the path of Russ Wilson, who actually changed programs from NC State to Wisconsin and saw his completions jump 15%. The bottom line IMO is no one as yet has figured out a way to measure heart and determination and their impact on what a QB can become. As far as one can tell, Allen is doing all the right things - his offseasons include sitting on the beach and golfing, but also clearly include intense work on his craft. And he seems to come back better each year. It's really IMO not worth getting in a lather about. Allen has already confounded most of his pre-draft critics who seemed to predict he'd have no success at all. Playoffs, Baby. Either his heart and determination and intelligence will allow him to solidify his improvements, or they won't. I'm betting on the former, but if someone wants to bet on the latter they have some history on their side. The other possibility is that if he keeps trucking linebackers and DLmen, he won't last in the league. 27 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: The Jets look like complete garbage and the worst team in the nfl. The Jets offense is looking like a hot mess. The Jets defense is in the middle of the pack, which is actually fairly impressive given that they lost a couple of their best players and that their offense hasn't given them much help. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: 🤷♂️ In general, habits are hard to change. Muscle memory in athletes is hard to change. Processing ability is hard to change. There's a list of starting QB in the NFL whose accuracy and ability to read the field unquestionably improved in the NFL. The list would include Steve Young (traded by his first team, "bust"), Drew Brees (first team drafted Phillip Rivers 'cuz they thought Brees couldn't play), Ryan Fitzpatrick (took him 5 years of playing in the league to crack 60% completions), Matt Stafford (3 years to crack 60%, 6 years to stay there consistently), Alex Smith (from "top 10 bust list" to solid starter - just took 6 years) - I'm sure I can think of others. Sam Bradford, perhaps. Then there are QB like Case Keenum, Nick Foles, and perhaps Mitch Trubisky who can have an all-world year with the right OC and talent around them, but regress badly when too many changes are made. Last, there are QB like Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, and yes, Pat Mahomes who looked very good once they started - but who sat on the bench 1-4 years before they stepped on the field as a starter. Would they have looked the same if they started right away? We'll never know. Of course, there is a much longer lists of QB who had "steps to take" coming into the NFL and who failed to take those steps. Allen is considered suspect by the "stats geeks" because unlike many of the other QBs named above, he didn't complete a high percentage of his passes in college. Ironically, the same stats mavens who claim to separate the effect of the talent around the QB from the QB's performance don't seem able to do this for Allen in college. Allen didn't follow the path of Russ Wilson, who actually changed programs from NC State to Wisconsin and saw his completions jump 15%. The bottom line IMO is no one as yet has figured out a way to measure heart and determination and their impact on what a QB can become. As far as one can tell, Allen is doing all the right things - his offseasons include sitting on the beach and golfing, but also clearly include intense work on his craft. And he seems to come back better each year. It's really IMO not worth getting in a lather about. Allen has already confounded most of his pre-draft critics who seemed to predict he'd have no success at all. Playoffs, Baby. Either his heart and determination and intelligence will allow him to solidify his improvements, or they won't. I'm betting on the former, but if someone wants to bet on the latter they have some history on their side. The other possibility is that if he keeps trucking linebackers and DLmen, he won't last in the league. The Jets offense is looking like a hot mess. The Jets defense is in the middle of the pack, which is actually fairly impressive given that they lost a couple of their best players and that their offense hasn't given them much help. The Jets gave up 31 to a 49ers team that lost their qb, rb, was already playing without their star TE, and starting 2 wrs. I think the only reason the Jets aren’t even lower is because the Bulls took their foot of the gas and 49ers are really banged up. They are really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Thought this was an interesting read. I hope they come back to it as the season progresses. I am interested to see how this plays out based on their “important” metrics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mushypeaches Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Bills fans know the areas where Josh Allen passes the eye test. He's never going to be a "traditional" QB. Which is absolutely fine, given that model is quickly being debunked for good by several current outstanding QB's. We also know how much he's improved, and is still improving. Stats prove it, and so do the team's results We also love watching him. He excites us more than any QB we've ever had on the team, arguably. To be where he is after ~ 30 starts is incredible. Don't think for one second that after watching the 2018 draft that you wouldn't be ecstatic with where we are now. Everything else is just noise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: The Jets gave up 31 to a 49ers team that lost their qb, rb, was already playing without their star TE, and starting 2 wrs. I think the only reason the Jets aren’t even lower is because the Bulls took their foot of the gas and 49ers are really banged up. They are really bad. The 49ers built up a 21-3 lead with Garappolo in the first half. I don't say the Jets have a great D, but it's not garbage. If you're looking for the bottom of the league, I say look elsewhere, but Time will Tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Logic said: People are gonna ***** all over the article. I think it's fine. FiveThirtyEight writers are the epitome of stat nerds. They're not watching football games, analyzing film, or breaking down individual plays. Very simply and specifically, they look at numbers -- a data set -- and make conclusions and predictions based off what the numbers are saying. Their conclusions are telling them Allen has improved. Their predictions are telling them his performance may regress to the mean in the coming weeks. If people are truly that bothered by the predictions of stat nerds, I suggest they learn a new strategy: It's called "stop caring what people you've never heard of think about Josh Allen". I've been trying it out the past couple weeks, and it's working wonders. And stop even reading it. Bolded: Was your first clue all the MVP talk going on here already? Edited September 25, 2020 by CodeMonkey 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Protocal69 Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Its 2 things I don't want to hear about QB's once they are in the league especially after the 1st year. What they did in college What they did the previous year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boater Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 We all know 538's track record. Not very good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 2 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said: clickable link https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-josh-allen-actually-good-now/ Another negative nancy who confuses beliefs and preferences. Everyone who has something negative to say about Allen uses the argument that the Dolphins and Jets suck. First, this is early in the year with too small a sample. If the Bills did well, their opponents, by construction, have to suck. Cant use their bad performance when facing Allen to make the argument that Allen is not strong enough since they are weak teams. Second, the Dolphins (who are supposedly so bad) just walloped the Jaguars, who walloped the Colts ... so who is weak now? They would have a small point if Josh just looked average or bad against them. He didn't though. He destroyed them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BisonMan Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 2 hours ago, eball said: This is the paragraph I take issue with: For quarterbacks, the stats that tend to be stable over time include passing efficiency from a clean pocket, passing efficiency with no play-action, completion percentage over expected and the share of throws that are off target or negatively graded. Each of these aspects of a QB’s performance is indicative of their true skill and is less affected by circumstances and luck. Stats that aren’t predictive of future performance — and that tend to be highly affected by circumstances and luck — include passing under pressure, passing outside the pocket and passing efficiency with play-action. In what world does a QB get to operate without pressure or stay purely in the pocket? And play-action is specifically designed to make a QB more successful. The author says that because Josh is performing well in these "non-predictive" areas we shouldn't count on his improvement to continue? That makes no sense to me. I guess Lamar Jackson has a 0.0 completion percentage by this logic as the Ravens almost never throw without play action or keep him in the pocket. So, Lamar sucks too? I love 538’s election models but this article has a lot of issues because it expects teams to always play to a Tom Brady style offense, which won’t always maximize the strengths of their QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reader Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Before everyone gets their hackles up, on 538's predictions they have a segment on QB's. Josh is ranked 9th currently. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nineforty Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Tortured Soul said: Does anyone know the source of this statement in note 1? "Analytics staffers on NFL teams ranked the Bills among the top five most analytically advanced in the NFL." i read this yesterday.. I'm going to assume this is where they got it from: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939438/2020-nfl-analytics-survey-which-teams-most-least-analytically-inclined Edited September 25, 2020 by Nineforty add image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 Color me unimpressed by this article. The author says that some metrics are highly variable while others are more stable and predictive - but offers no evidence or analysis. He goes on to note that "Allen's numbers are great in the unstable, less predictive metrics and middle in the road in their stable, more predictive counterparts." He concludes that Allen is likely to return to his norm of 2018 and 2019. This analysis precludes the whole idea of progress. For example, he argues that passing efficiency from a clean pockets is both stable and predictive. I'm sure if you're looking at a QB in mid-career that's true. But don't tell me that young QBs don't often get better at passing efficiency from a clean pocket over time. The author, btw, never mentions whether or not Allen has made progress in the predictive metrics from 2018 to now. He doesn't look to see if there's any upward trend. If these metrics are truly predictive, wouldn't we expect an upward trend to continue? Furthermore, he makes the ridiculous argument that Allen achieved his statistical heights this year against weak opponents. How - statistically speaking - do we know the Jets and Fins have weak defenses at this point in the season? Not counting the Bills game, each had only played one opponent. What conclusions can you base off of that? Both the Jets and Fins defenses may have had bad statistical performances against the Bills simply because Allen and the Bills offense are that good. We just don't know yet. Fitz, Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Rich Gannon, Jim Plunkett, Len Dawson and many other QBs improved over time. Steve Deberg had a 40.0 passer rating in his first year as a starter. He only got better after that with a peak rating of 96.3 as a 12 year veteran. Early career stats often are NOT predictive of future performance. Players sometimes just get better. They eye test seems to say that Allen is indeed getting better with his touch, deep ball, mechanics, and ability to find the open receiver. The signs are certainly hopeful but I don't think two games is enough to rush to any conclusions, pro or con. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 23 minutes ago, BisonMan said: I guess Lamar Jackson has a 0.0 completion percentage by this logic as the Ravens almost never throw without play action or keep him in the pocket. So, Lamar sucks too? I love 538’s election models but this article has a lot of issues because it expects teams to always play to a Tom Brady style offense, which won’t always maximize the strengths of their QBs. "Each of these aspects of a QB’s performance is indicative of their true skill and is less affected by circumstances and luck." I have a big problem with this. Performance when under pressure and outside the pocket is more affected by circumstances and luck and performance when protection is clean is more meaningful? You brought up Brady and he would be a great example. He was throwing balls away, daring officials to make the grounding call, when he was facing pressure. Being unwilling to take a hit to make a play is luck or "circumstances?" Some of these QBs can't escape pressure and making plays on the move and outside the pocket is not even an option for them. It's a club that is not in their bag. I don't know how you can evaluate some QBs for parts of their game that do not exist for many of them. Most all NFL starting caliber QBs perform well when not pressured or else they would not have the job. So how could that be any meaningful way to evaluate their performances? This author used their ordinal ranks after only two games to to say that Josh was middle of the pack in the "meaningful" measures: clean pocket QBR, no play action, completion% over expected and poor throw % even though the clean pocket QBR is a solid 79 and the bad throw % is a stellar 16% and SIS has him 4th in on target throw %. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umangatan Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/ny-josh-allen-20200925-wohah2rawratre2pmlepgbj3fm-story.html Everyone has a different take. Stats can be manipulated to show whatever you would like. Josh is improving every year and was 10,000 throws behind his draft year colleagues. If you can't see his improvement you are blind. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralonzo Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 7 hours ago, BeerLeagueHockey said: Summary: We think players don't improve in the NFL, and he'll quickly return to his past performance level. Thanks. Nate Pyrite's predictions are so seldom correct, I was hoping it was something like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 My question is, that 79 QBR when not under pressure (19th rank in the league), wouldn't that include his two runs where he fumbled and lost the ball? I would imagine both those turnovers would have brought his QBR down quite a bit. If that's the case, I'm definitely not worried. But the other flaw here is where do Mahomes, Rodgers, Jackson and Wilson rank in QBR when not pressured compared to their overall QBR's? Do they also have decreases in ranking from their overall QBR? All four of these QB's and Allen excel in avoiding pressure and creating secondary reaction type plays. Guys like say Phillip Rivers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady on the other hand might have higher QBR ranks when not under pressure but lower QBR ranks overall. I'm sure the stats is out there somewhere but until we have it, for all we know guys like Cousins (well probably not this year) or Goff might have the highest QBR "not under pressure". And if that is the case, I don't really see the value. Just give me total QBR because a QB is going to be under pressure at some point of every game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 7 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said: Most all NFL starting caliber QBs perform well when not pressured or else they would not have the job. So how could that be any meaningful way to evaluate their performances? This author used their ordinal ranks after only two games to to say that Josh was middle of the pack in the "meaningful" measures: clean pocket QBR, no play action, completion% over expected and poor throw % even though the clean pocket QBR is a solid 79 and the bad throw % is a stellar 16% and SIS has him 4th in on target throw %. Very true. 79QBR is 19th ranked. What is is 32nd rank? 60 QBR? Basically it's likely a tight range of good QB play between 60 and 95. Which would be expected as you pointed out: NFL starting QB's should play well not under pressure. 7 hours ago, hondo in seattle said: This analysis precludes the whole idea of progress. For example, he argues that passing efficiency from a clean pockets is both stable and predictive. I'm sure if you're looking at a QB in mid-career that's true. But don't tell me that young QBs don't often get better at passing efficiency from a clean pocket over time. The author, btw, never mentions whether or not Allen has made progress in the predictive metrics from 2018 to now. He doesn't look to see if there's any upward trend. If these metrics are truly predictive, wouldn't we expect an upward trend to continue? This is another excellent point. A fair comparison would be going back in history 10-20 years and seeing where all the 3rd year QB's ranked in these metrics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 7 hours ago, hondo in seattle said: Furthermore, he makes the ridiculous argument that Allen achieved his statistical heights this year against weak opponents. How - statistically speaking - do we know the Jets and Fins have weak defenses at this point in the season? Not counting the Bills game, each had only played one opponent. What conclusions can you base off of that? Both the Jets and Fins defenses may have had bad statistical performances against the Bills simply because Allen and the Bills offense are that good. We just don't know yet. Especially that Dolphins defense. In fact the Dolphins overall as a team actually might even be good, when we look at their 3 games now and the teams they have played and how they played them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 So basically even if the Bills win and Allen doesn't actually improve on his Miami numbers (a Herculean task) they will claim he is who they thought he was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bouds Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Article isn't unfair, especially when you consider the author, Hermsmeyer. Guy has never been an Allen fan, he's extremely critical. It's only week 2, jury is still out, I think that's fair enough to say. But it's also fair to think that Allen may be a bit better than most predicted predraft, including myself. Still a long season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Putin Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 9 hours ago, Reader said: Before everyone gets their hackles up, on 538's predictions they have a segment on QB's. Josh is ranked 9th currently. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/ He leads the league in almost EVERYTHING but barely cracks the top 10 Got it 👍 !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted September 26, 2020 Share Posted September 26, 2020 Stats are for losers. They don't give you context about how a play unfolds, obstacles overcome or competitive situation at critical points in time. For example, the drive Josh led following Miami's go ahead score in Q3 to make it 20-17: First play--47 yard completion to Diggs Second play--7 yard completion to Moss Third play--10 yard penalty on Morse Fourth play--Allen sacked for 4 yard loss Fifth play--24 yard completion to Beasley Sixth play--Singletary up the middle for 10 yards Seventh play--Singletary up the middle for 2 yards Eighth play--pass incomplete to Beasley Ninth play--TOUCHDOWN to Gabe Davis The stat line says Allen was 4-5 for a net 80 yards and a TD. That's clearly good. But even better--and the most impressive thing about Josh on that drive--is that (1) he made a statement throw on the very first play of the drive, (2) he overcame a third and 24 with a great read on the Beasley toss, and (3) he put the TD in the only place it could be thrown and trusted his WR. Those are all things that stats freaks like FiveThirtyEight or PFF can't evaluate by just looking at the game log. And why these kind of analyses miss the point of the human element so often... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts