DCOrange Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 For context, he's done this the past couple years and mentions that of the 11 teams he's predicted to improve in the past two years, 9 of them have improved and they've improved by an average of 4 wins. His choices are generally based on advanced metrics such as Pythagorean wins, record in close games, etc. This year's teams: San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers New York Jets New York Giants https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27296131/barnwell-picking-five-nfl-teams-most-likely-improve-2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Giants lol What the hell is a Pythagorean win? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProcessYaDigg Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Just now, ScottLaw said: Agree with all except Panthers and Giants. I'm not sold on the 49ers either. I think Jimmy G will be a bust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 The giants? The Jets? The Bucs? Uhh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, DCOrange said: For context, he's done this the past couple years and mentions that of the 11 teams he's predicted to improve in the past two years, 9 of them have improved and they've improved by an average of 4 wins. His choices are generally based on advanced metrics such as Pythagorean wins, record in close games, etc. This year's teams: San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers New York Jets New York Giants https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27296131/barnwell-picking-five-nfl-teams-most-likely-improve-2019 49ers - yes will improve from 4-12 but not to above .500 and Shanahan and Lynch will be sent packing. Panthers - I have them a game either side of .500. They were 7-9 last year. Their range is 7-9 to 9-7 again this year. Buccs - Yep, think they will be a lot better. Darkhorse for the playoffs. Don't think the Arians thing will work out long term but I expect a 2019 bounce. Jets - Yep, will be better than 4-12. Giants - I reckon they will be about 5-11 again. Not. A. Good. Team. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: Jets went 4-12 last year. They absolutely will be better. If your idea of "better" is very literal in they may have 1-2 more wins. Writing an article like this though, the implication would be a significant improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Barnwell is a card carrying Bills hater. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProcessYaDigg Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: 49ers - yes will improve from 4-12 but not to above .500 and Shanahan and Lynch will be sent packing. Panthers - I have them a game either side of .500. They were 7-9 last year. Their range is 7-9 to 9-7 again this year. Buccs - Yep, think they will be a lot better. Darkhorse for the playoffs. Don't think the Arians thing will work out long term but I expect a 2019 bounce. Jets - Yep, will be better than 4-12. Giants - I reckon they will be about 5-11 again. Not. A. Good. Team. Yikes. I forgot how terrible each team was. After seeing these records, I guess I do see each team doing better or the same as last year. Barnwell's predictions are worthless cuz he just picks the bottom of the barrel teams and predicts they'll have more wins then the previous year. For these teams, that's obvious that they should do better. But not much better. I only see the Bucs making the playoffs. Out of these teams, I think the Panthers will regress. Cam is done. I expect Will Grier to be their starter next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 31 minutes ago, DCOrange said: For context, he's done this the past couple years and mentions that of the 11 teams he's predicted to improve in the past two years, 9 of them have improved and they've improved by an average of 4 wins. His choices are generally based on advanced metrics such as Pythagorean wins, record in close games, etc. This year's teams: San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers New York Jets New York Giants https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27296131/barnwell-picking-five-nfl-teams-most-likely-improve-2019 I'll have what he's smoking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 So he took three 4-12 teams and two 5-11 teams — five of the eight teams who won five or fewer games last year — and said they are the most likely teams to improve? Way to go out on that limb. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 55 minutes ago, DCOrange said: For context, he's done this the past couple years and mentions that of the 11 teams he's predicted to improve in the past two years, 9 of them have improved and they've improved by an average of 4 wins. His choices are generally based on advanced metrics such as Pythagorean wins, record in close games, etc. This year's teams: San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers New York Jets New York Giants https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27296131/barnwell-picking-five-nfl-teams-most-likely-improve-2019 Makes sense - 2 teams that didn't have their QBs. And 3 teams that shouldve won more games than they did in 2018. The Jets at 4-12 going to 8-8 doesn't seem far fetched with their additions. Giants are a tricky one because of the loss of beckham, and everyone assumes they'll be terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, eball said: So he took three 4-12 teams and two 5-11 teams — five of the eight teams who won five or fewer games last year — and said they are the most likely teams to improve? Way to go out on that limb. exactly. this prediction doesn't do a whole lot for me one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capco Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 54 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: What the hell is a Pythagorean win? +1. I've never heard that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seasons1992 Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 57 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: Giants lol What the hell is a Pythagorean win? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Florida Bills Fanatic Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 15 minutes ago, eball said: So he took three 4-12 teams and two 5-11 teams — five of the eight teams who won five or fewer games last year — and said they are the most likely teams to improve? Way to go out on that limb. This guy Barnwell is not a genius. You don't need a theory based on advanced mathematics to guess that five of the worst teams in the league will improve. I can't wait for the season to start so all of these soothsayers crawl back into the hole from which they came. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sig1Hunter Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said: Giants lol What the hell is a Pythagorean win? Not sure, but I’m guessing it has something to do with a hypotenuse? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Circlethewagon8404 said: I'm not sold on the 49ers either. I think Jimmy G will be a bust. If you think Jimmy G. will be a bust, you must really hate Allen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said: Giants lol What the hell is a Pythagorean win? Briefly, if you can guess this year's point differential with reasonable accuracy, you should be able to guess this year's win total with reasonable accuracy. In other words, it's a lot of speculation dressed up in math. It's called "Pythagorean" partly because the formula used looks a bit like the Pythagorean theorem and mostly because it makes the idea sound geeky legit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil The Thrill Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 hour ago, DCOrange said: For context, he's done this the past couple years and mentions that of the 11 teams he's predicted to improve in the past two years, 9 of them have improved and they've improved by an average of 4 wins. His choices are generally based on advanced metrics such as Pythagorean wins, record in close games, etc. This year's teams: San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers New York Jets New York Giants https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27296131/barnwell-picking-five-nfl-teams-most-likely-improve-2019 Bill “Thin Skin” Barnwell. I won’t ever listen to an interview or read his work. He’s one of those journalists who can criticize but can’t take criticism 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 hour ago, GunnerBill said: 49ers - yes will improve from 4-12 but not to above .500 and Shanahan and Lynch will be sent packing. Panthers - I have them a game either side of .500. They were 7-9 last year. Their range is 7-9 to 9-7 again this year. Buccs - Yep, think they will be a lot better. Darkhorse for the playoffs. Don't think the Arians thing will work out long term but I expect a 2019 bounce. Jets - Yep, will be better than 4-12. Giants - I reckon they will be about 5-11 again. Not. A. Good. Team. Can't disagree with any of this (maybe Shanny & Lynch) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jletha Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Sig1Hunter said: Not sure, but I’m guessing it has something to do with a hypotenuse? It is win total based on points scored vs points against. Sometimes, especially early in a season, a teams record can be a bit misleading because of fluky occurrences but in general teams that score more and prevent getting scored on should win more. Well over time people have amassed statistics that create a correlation of points for/points against ratio and wins on average. If your team had a good ratio but had less wins that you would expect its probably because you had some really tough losses and you can expect to improve the next year as you trend towards the mean. Similarly, if you had a bad ratio but you won more games than the correlation expects you probably overachieved and you can predict that you will regress to the mean the next year. Its more useful in baseball where there are more games. Sometimes in May or June a team will be below .500 but have a positive run differential. You can expect them to end up above .500 because they score more than their opponents usually. The reverse scenario also applies; Edited August 5, 2019 by jletha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigK14094 Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Carolina will only get better is CAM comes back to his old self. But, that looks pretty iffy right now, so he has that wrong imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, ScottLaw said: I expect them to. I've said numerous times I think the Jets win about 10 games this year. because they have Adam Gase who's presided over offense in the bottom half of the league for several years or because they have Gregg Williams whose defense have been in the bottom 3rd of the league for the last several years on multiple different teams? Is is their level of talent on the defense that actually seems to be worse than last season? Is it Sam Darnold who had a higher interception rate than Allen? Maybe it's the Jets offensive line that ranked as badly as the Bills line did last season and the only significant addition was a guy who ranked out lower than their existing terrible lineman? ..but this is you so it probably comes down to "They aren't the Bills" Edited August 5, 2019 by jeremy2020 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said: because they have Adam Gase who's presided over offense in the bottom half of the league for several years or because they have Gregg Williams who defense have been in the bottom 3rd of the league for the last several years on multiple different teams? Is is their level of talent on the defense that actually seems to be worse than last season? Is it Sam Darnold who had a higher interception rate than Allen? Maybe it's the Jets offensive line that ranked as badly as the Bills line did last season and the only significant addition was a guy who ranked our lower than their existing terrible lineman? ..but this is you so it probably comes down to "They aren't the Bills" Scott is absolutely a Jets fan. He defends them at every turn -- on a Jets board he'd be called a homer, which is hilariously ironic. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan_34 Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 2 hours ago, DCOrange said: For context, he's done this the past couple years and mentions that of the 11 teams he's predicted to improve in the past two years, 9 of them have improved and they've improved by an average of 4 wins. His choices are generally based on advanced metrics such as Pythagorean wins, record in close games, etc. This year's teams: San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers New York Jets New York Giants https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27296131/barnwell-picking-five-nfl-teams-most-likely-improve-2019 Well of course the Giants improve, you can’t get any worse! The Jets and Tampa? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mushypeaches Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 hour ago, bigK14094 said: Carolina will only get better is CAM comes back to his old self. But, that looks pretty iffy right now, so he has that wrong imho. I think Carolina is a dark horse candidate for dumpster fire team of 2019. Cam could be just about done, they don't have a lot of talent or depth, and Riverboat Ron is one of those longer tenured coaches whose act may have grown stale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, Sig1Hunter said: Not sure, but I’m guessing it has something to do with a hypotenuse? i'm more of a leg man myself. Edited August 5, 2019 by Foxx 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 2 hours ago, eball said: Scott is absolutely a Jets fan. He defends them at every turn -- on a Jets board he'd be called a homer, which is hilariously ironic. I think that's been conclusively proven this offseason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Pythagorean wins ... The formula has also been used in pro football by football stat website and publisher Football Outsiders, where it is known as Pythagorean projection. The formula is used with an exponent of 2.37 and gives a projected winning percentage. That winning percentage is then multiplied by 16 (for the number of games played in an NFL season), to give a projected number of wins. This projected number given by the equation is referred to as Pythagorean wins. The 2011 edition of Football Outsiders Almanac[11] states, "From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team that led the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were won by the team with the most actual victories. Super Bowl champions that led the league in Pythagorean wins but not actual wins include the 2004 Patriots, 2000 Ravens, 1999 Rams and 1997 Broncos." Although Football Outsiders Almanac acknowledges that the formula had been less-successful in picking Super Bowl participants from 2005–2008, it reasserted itself in 2009 and 2010. Furthermore, "[t]he Pythagorean projection is also still a valuable predictor of year-to-year improvement. Teams that win a minimum of one full game more than their Pythagorean projection tend to regress the following year; teams that win a minimum of one full game less than their Pythagoerean projection tend to improve the following year, particularly if they were at or above .500 despite their underachieving. For example, the 2008 New Orleans Saints went 8–8 despite 9.5 Pythagorean wins, hinting at the improvement that came with the next year's championship season." ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay_Fixit Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 4 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said: Barnwell is a card carrying Bills hater. And a Tyrod lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 5 hours ago, Circlethewagon8404 said: I'm not sold on the 49ers either. I think Jimmy G will be a bust. I thought he dated a bust?! ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPP Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Giants LOL....who the hell is Eli gonna throw to? Thought pretty much all their WR's are out for a long period of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 5 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said: Barnwell is a card carrying Bills hater. You gotta stop this PTR. Every person who doesn’t say the Bills aren’t the best team in the NFL doesn’t hate the Bills. Barnwell is a huge nerd but for better or worse, he uses statistics to make his predictions. The media can be super annoying but this whole thing fans have that if you don’t constantly praise their team, you hate them, must be so annoying. 4 hours ago, bigK14094 said: Carolina will only get better is CAM comes back to his old self. But, that looks pretty iffy right now, so he has that wrong imho. They were 6-2 last year and he couldn’t throw the ball past 30 yards. If his surgery was successful, they will be tough though the NFC South is a very hard division. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 I think that the Bucs take a step forward. They are a fringe playoff team IMO (keep in mind I said that last year and was way off). The Jets are about a .500 team I think. That’s a pretty big step forward as well. They are a lot like us. Carolina looks no different to me. The Giants stink but have for a couple of years. They might be the worst team in football. I don’t see enough of SF to have too strong of an opinion. I guess that their DL could be good. I think that it’s reasonable to think that these 5 teams could combine to be 10 games ahead but of last year (mostly led by Jets and Bucs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said: You gotta stop this PTR. Every person who doesn’t say the Bills aren’t the best team in the NFL doesn’t hate the Bills. Barnwell is a huge nerd but for better or worse, he uses statistics to make his predictions. The media can be super annoying but this whole thing fans have that if you don’t constantly praise their team, you hate them, must be so annoying. They were 6-2 last year and he couldn’t throw the ball past 30 yards. If his surgery was successful, they will be tough though the NFC South is a very hard division. I'm not referring to this poll. I'm referring to Barnwell's history of berating the Bills and the city. (I know, I know. We deserve it, right?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbitmic Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 Picking two teams from NYC will get you a lot of clicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formerlyofCtown Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 9 hours ago, jeremy2020 said: The giants? The Jets? The Bucs? Uhh... Well they did get that first round QB in NY.? 6 hours ago, mushypeaches said: I think Carolina is a dark horse candidate for dumpster fire team of 2019. Cam could be just about done, they don't have a lot of talent or depth, and Riverboat Ron is one of those longer tenured coaches whose act may have grown stale Cam is done?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerJ Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 Well, we knew the Bills were never going to be on a list like that from Barnwell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 I don’t get why anyone is mad that the Bills aren’t on here? 27 teams aren’t yet some feel like it’s a shot at them? This is a weird case of that Buffalo insecurity complex. Who cares if they are there? Barnwell has his opinion and it’s based on his formula. He didn’t even say that the Bills would be good or bad. He simply didn’t include them and some are taking offense. There isn’t some “anti-Bills” conspiracy out there. Michael Robinson thinks that the Bills will be good and we sent him a t-shirt!! The bottom line is that EVERYthing regarding the 2019 season at this point is a guess. Let’s not get mad at the guy that predicts 4-12 and send t-shirts to the guy that picks 12-4. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. If their opinion isn’t “your team is great” it doesn’t mean that they hate your team/city/family/etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSHMEAB Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 (edited) 11 hours ago, ScottLaw said: Giants aren't better than a 6 win team, IMO. Jets went 4-12 last year. They absolutely will be better. Bucs hired an established successful guy in Arians who has a history of doing wonders with QBs. I agree they will be a lot better. I think the Bucs could be a HUGE surprise team if Winston can thrive in Arians scheme. Arians is a really, really good coach and that offense is stacked. I'm talking competing with the Saints for the division good. Edited August 6, 2019 by LSHMEAB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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