Trade Lawson and a 2020 draft pick for Clowney?

[NewEra]

If he had more productivity I’d give a first but the production just hasn’t been there.  I’d give a 2nd.  Paying an unproductive pass rusher 20 mill-+ a year plus trading away our best 2020 asset just seems like a vast overpay.  We could get a pass rusher that actually gets sacks and only pay him 3-7 mill a year for several years.  Or an all pro WR we’d be paying pennies.  20mill+ per plus a 1st......ugh.  

 

Not sure he ever made 1st team all pro (oh yes I do.  He’s extremely overhyped).  4 forced fumbles in his entire career. Zero playoff sacks in his career.  Meh.  Looks good in a uniform. Underwhelming results 

[Buddy Hix]

6 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Fair point but I see no scenario where we would be using our 1st next year on a QB.  Even if Allen is not the guy, we probably won't no for at least another year.

I don’t think there is any scenario, except horrible injury, where we take a QB next year either. But without knowing what our O is capable of, it’s too risky to give up a pick that could be top 10.

[TheBeaneBandit]

Id do it for a 2nd next year and a 4th the following, of course after a contract extension as well.

[Bill from NYC]

18 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Clowney would have to agree to an extension before I made the deal. And I’d have no problem trading next year’s first. Would people really pass up Jadeveon Clowney if he was sitting there when it’s our turn to pick? Really? 

I would pass on him in a split second. Everything that this team needs is in the 2020 draft. There are probably at least 5 receivers who are better than any who came out in 2019. 

 

We have a QB who can throw the ball 5 miles through a brick wall. Let's get him some receivers!

 

I wish that we had even more picks in 2020.

 

Jmo.

[nucci]

5 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

To play DE after Clowney leaves 

Obviously ...my point is they would probably prefer someone better

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

9 minutes ago, nucci said:

Why would they want Lawson?

or improves

You gotta have a ball boy

[Buddy Hix]

5 minutes ago, nucci said:

 

or improves

I think it is much more likely that Allen improves. But when analyzing risk you typically take the chance of occurrence and the impact of the risk and apply a function to score it.

 

I’m risk averse, so I wouldn’t gamble with my 1st round pick without more confidence that our O is a top 16 unit.

[Victory Formation]

In a heart beat if they'd take a 2nd.

[K-9]

1 minute ago, Bill from NYC said:

I would pass on him in a split second. Everything that this team needs is in the 2020 draft. There are probably at least 5 receivers who are better than any who came out in 2019. 

 

We have a QB who can throw the ball 5 miles through a brick wall. Let's get him some receivers!

 

I wish that we had even more picks in 2020.

 

Jmo.

I can’t say I disagree about the talent coming out next year and it makes sense to put premium talent around your young QB. I’d certainly be happy with a great wideout. 

 

It’s early in the evaluation process for next year’s draft class and I’ll be interested to see how the rankings develop. But at this early juncture, it’s hard for me to believe that any player will be more highly ranked than Clowney. And Clowney plays the second most impactful position in the game to boot. It would be hard to pass on him, imo. 

[BarleyNY]

12 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I’m good with a first. I just don’t think there is much comparison with a 2021 comp pick either way. 

 

I agree that a first and Lawson is reasonable, but I am not sure our first will be.  A lot depends on the expectations for the team - and Allen - this season.  If they are confident that they’d be trading away a pick in the 20s, then it is an easy deal to make.  If they’re worried it’ll be a top 10 pick again, then they can’t pull the trigger.

 

There is a lot of optimism here for our record, but Vegas doesn’t share that.  Only 4 teams have an expected win total lower than the Bills. And two more have the same at 6.5.  That would put us between picks 5 and 7. There’s no way I’d give up that for Clowney.  I’d use those low expectations and offer Lawson, our 2020 second plus our 2021 3rd.  Those two picks would put us in the equivalent range of a low first. 

 

This regime isn’t on the collective hot seat so I don’t see them taking the chance of offering our 2020 first and Lawson unless they are very confident that our record will exceed outside expectations and have us drafting in the 20s.  Still, it’s a risk.  Allen is big but he ran a lot last season.  What if he gets injured early and the season tanks?

[YoloinOhio]

4 minutes ago, nucci said:

Obviously ...my point is they would probably prefer someone better

Sure they would but people in hell want ice water. If a team willing to trade a high draft pick  for  clowney had a better DE than Lawson to throw in  they wouldn’t be trading a high draft pick for Clowney in the first place

[BubbaT]

Clowney is a good but not great pass rusher. He's  better than Lawson in that regard but has the benefit of playing opposite JJ Watt who draws a lot of attention. Under no circumstances would I give up a  pick in the first 2 days for him. His salary will be high and might limit you in the future as well. I'd pass on him. DE might be priority #1 next year in the draft.

Edited May 10, 2019 by BubbaT

[CuddyDark]

Why would they take Lawson when he didn't fit there defense when we had 34 under footboy? Hughes makes more sense.

[Rc2catch]

I’ll probably get flamed for this but clowney to me anyways isn’t that big of an upgrade over Lawson. 

He’s obviously more elite in the run stopping category but 100 million more elite? 

He can rush the passer to a certain extent but with Watt and Mercilus he wasn’t exactly lighting up the sack category. Houston has used him all over the formation from outside linebacker to both end spots and even as a DT in their 4-3 or nickel sets and his impact just doesn’t equal the money for me. My opinion is that they can get the same impact/stats from the Lawson Murphy combo. There was a time when you couldn’t simply acquire elite talent via trades without giving up a kings ransom, now we’re seeing elite level players being moved for pennies. I would hate to give away a high pick for a player who has not been able to takeover games on a very talented defense. 

[Bleedbuffaloblue]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

If he had more productivity I’d give a first but the production just hasn’t been there.  I’d give a 2nd.  Paying an unproductive pass rusher 20 mill-+ a year plus trading away our best 2020 asset just seems like a vast overpay.  We could get a pass rusher that actually gets sacks and only pay him 3-7 mill a year for several years.  Or an all pro WR we’d be paying pennies.  20mill+ per plus a 1st......ugh.  

 

Not sure he ever made 1st team all pro (oh yes I do.  He’s extremely overhyped).  4 forced fumbles in his entire career. Zero playoff sacks in his career.  Meh.  Looks good in a uniform. Underwhelming results 

Totally agree with this. Way too high a cost IMO. If we were to throw in a player like Shaq who was a first rounder regardless of his production to date then the accompanying draft pick should be a third or fourth for a player with Clowney’s production to date or lack there of along with his injury history. Get him on a good deal for us or walk away. We aren’t desperate.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, tomur67 said:

John Breech of CBS Sports suggests that it would be a logical trade between the Texans and the Bills.  The Bills would get Clowney,  but give up its first round pick in 2020 and Lawson. 

 

If the Bills don’t throw in shaq would the Texans do it for a third? 

[CuddyDark]

4 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

I’ll probably get flamed for this but clowney to me anyways isn’t that big of an upgrade over Lawson. 

He’s obviously more elite in the run stopping category but 100 million more elite? 

He can rush the passer to a certain extent but with Watt and Mercilus he wasn’t exactly lighting up the sack category. Houston has used him all over the formation from outside linebacker to both end spots and even as a DT in their 4-3 or nickel sets and his impact just doesn’t equal the money for me. My opinion is that they can get the same impact/stats from the Lawson Murphy combo. There was a time when you couldn’t simply acquire elite talent via trades without giving up a kings ransom, now we’re seeing elite level players being moved for pennies. I would hate to give away a high pick for a player who has not been able to takeover games on a very talented defense. 

His best season was the one where Watt was hurt. Also in their defense he won't ever get a lot of sacks.

Edited May 10, 2019 by CuddyDark

[SCBills]

We have the money to extend Hughes and give Clowney a new deal.  Our defense is set for the next few years at an elite status with this move.  

 

What people may or may not be factoring in when it comes to a 1st Round Pick, is that with Clowney, we should expect to be a playoff team.  That means we're drafting in the 20's.  This most likely wouldn't be another #9 pick.

 

I'd still be 50/50 on it, but would be ok with giving up Lawson and a 1st if that's what it came to.

 

We'd still have money next year to resign our guys and then have an entire draft, 2nd Round on, to focus on the offense and depth.  

 

Defense would be stacked this year and next.

 

Ideally OL is set for this year, and next, with Nsekhe, Ford, Morse, Dawkins and then we hope that some of Spain, Long, Feliciano etc warrant new contracts after 2019.  We're all cautiously optimistic that we have our QB in Allen, and we can focus on RB/WR next offseason/draft.

 

Edited May 10, 2019 by SCBills

[Dr. Who]

58 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

But is it worth not having Clowney in 2019?  I mean they are in win-now mode, right?  Watt isn't getting any younger.

Then keep Clowney and lose him to free agency. Too much really good wr talent at the top of the draft next year. Our window really starts next year. We're not the team with urgency, so we don't have to pay a premium. If the Texans want a second, okay, but the first is off the table.

[chris heff]

28 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

The Bills have strategically put themselves in the position to pay these types of players if they want to. They have one big time contract on the books - Morse. They have only one coming up - Tre White. QB on year 2 of rookie contract. This is when you make these deals. They could have no vet Pass rushers under contract next year. Clowney is in his prime.Contending teams have several blue chip players who are vets and they are $$. 

This is a legitimate question, is Clowney the type of player the Bills want? Isn’t the knock on him that he takes plays off? I know there was a lot of hype when he was drafted. Has he lived up to it? I know there were injuries early on and I know he has been better the last two years.

[Cornette's Commentary]

6 minutes ago, chris heff said:

This is a legitimate question, is Clowney the type of player the Bills want? Isn’t the knock on him that he takes plays off? I know there was a lot of hype when he was drafted. Has he lived up to it? I know there were injuries early on and I know he has been better the last two years.

Sounds like someone we know:

[SWATeam]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Then keep Clowney and lose him to free agency. Too much really good wr talent at the top of the draft next year. Our window really starts next year. We're not the team with urgency, so we don't have to pay a premium. If the Texans want a second, okay, but the first is off the table.

I just feel like a 26 year old Clowney has immense upside in this defense.  He's exactly what McD likes at end, and I think he has been misused in Houston.

 

I hate looking at next years draft class this far out.  Things always change. 

[Wsam4031]

no way for a first. completely off the board for a first. A  third is where id be ok with. The guys has an extensive injury history and hasn't been all that productive. Id hate to give this guy 20 million also. Not against a trade for him but a first and 20 million really scare me. If this guy was a 20 million dollar player they would just cut JJ and sign Clowney. makes you wonder why they wont. I know they have to pay Watson and JJ but lets face it JJ was a great player. Hes always injured now

Edited May 10, 2019 by Wsam4031

[YoloinOhio]

7 minutes ago, chris heff said:

This is a legitimate question, is Clowney the type of player the Bills want? Isn’t the knock on him that he takes plays off? I know there was a lot of hype when he was drafted. Has he lived up to it? I know there were injuries early on and I know he has been better the last two years.

I’d say so 

 

3x Pro Bowl 2016-18

1st team all-pro 2016

2nd team all-pro 2017

def player of the week 2018 vs Colts - remember what the Bills “defense” looked like vs the Colts last year? Have you blocked it out? I have. Anyway- 

 

 

The NFL named Houston Texans DE/OLB Jadeveon Clowney the AFC Defensive Player of the Week following his performance in the team’s 37-34 overtime victory over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.

Clowney recorded four total tackles (four solo), 2.0 sacks, four quarterback hits, four tackle for loss and one fumble recovery for a touchdown. He sacked Colts QB Andrew Luck for a loss of nine yards in the second quarter and brought Luck down for a loss of 10 yards on a critical play late in overtime.

Clowney is the only player to record at least 2.0 sacks, four tackles for loss and one fumble recovery returned for a touchdown in a single game since tackles for loss became an official NFL statistic. Not only that, Clowney has accomplished the feat twice in his NFL career (Week 3 of the 2017 season). He recovered a fumble by Colts C Ryan Kelly in the endzone for his second career touchdown and became the first player in franchise history to record multiple career games with at least 1.0 sack and a fumble recovery returned for a touchdown.

Clowney tied his single-game career high in sacks, quarterback hits, tackles for loss and fumble recoveries in the game. He has registered four-or-more tackles for loss in a game in each of the last three seasons (Week 5 in 2016, Week 3 in 2017 and Week 4 in 2018). No other player in the NFL has more than one game with four-or-more tackles for loss since 2016. He also has 42 tackles for loss in that time span (33 games), which is the second-most in the NFL.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

22 minutes ago, BubbaT said:

Clowney is a good but not great pass rusher. He's  better than Lawson in that regard but has the benefit of playing opposite JJ Watt who draws a lot of attention. Under no circumstances would I give up a  pick in the first 2 days for him. His salary will be high and might limit you in the future as well. I'd pass on him. DE might be priority #1 next year in the draft.

 

...a voice of reason......extend Hughes for 2 years and look to 2020 draft...........

[chris heff]

3 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Sounds like someone we know:

I hear you, if Clowney could bring what Mario brought in his first three years with Bills then I’d be okay with a trade. But I think Lawson and a first is more than they need to pay. 

[Dr. Who]

Just now, SWATeam said:

I just feel like a 26 year old Clowney has immense upside in this defense.  He's exactly what McD likes at end, and I think he has been misused in Houston.

 

I hate looking at next years draft class this far out.  Things always change. 

I agree that Clowney could thrive in our D. I don't think Houston can sign him long-term. We could make a play for him in free agency. You don't trade for him in any event without an extension worked out. Regardless, there is superior wr talent I doubt Beane is willing to pass on in 2020 draft. I'd offer a second plus and see if Texans bite.

 

[ndirish1978]

Yep, trade out of the first round in the year with all the great wide receivers for a generally overhyped DE... makes sense.

[YoloinOhio]

1 minute ago, chris heff said:

I hear you, if Clowney could bring what Mario brought in his first three years with Bills then I’d be okay with a trade. But I think Lawson and a first is more than they need to pay. 

I would take Mario in his prime right now for sure. People have short memories. 

Edited May 10, 2019 by YoloinOhio

[SWATeam]

2 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

Yep, trade out of the first round in the year with all the great wide receivers for a generally overhyped DE... makes sense.

Do you think it will be better than the amazing 2014 WR class?

[Cornette's Commentary]

2 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

Yep, trade out of the first round in the year with all the great wide receivers for a generally overhyped DE... makes sense.

Especially considering that next year's draft will have DEs Chase Young, AJ Epenesa, Nick Coe, Curtis Weaver and Terrell Lewis.

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

Yep, trade out of the first round in the year with all the great wide receivers for a generally overhyped DE... makes sense.

 

Where do you think we're drafting this year, with Clowney?  Because I think it would be in the 20's.  Even without him, I think we have a solid chance at a WC.   At the very least, it would be a VERY disappointing season to be drafting top 10 again. 

 

If there are stud WR's next year, they won't be around in the late-teens/20's.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, SWATeam said:

My point is, though, that it will probably be for a 1st rounder.  Not less.

 

Who's preformed better over the past 3 to 4 year OBJ or Clowney?  In spite of all the off field antics OBJ and he was only worth a first.  Antonio Brown got a 3rd.  It has to be a real top super star to give u pa first, Clowney is not that.  I'd be shocked if a team gave a up a 1st for him, and just hope it's not the Bills.   3rd, go for it, 2nd maybe, I'd try and also get a 4th or 5th back then too.

 

PS If you gave me a choice I'd rather give up a 1st for AJ Green than Clowney. 

[chris heff]

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I would take Mario in his prime right now for sure. People have short memories. 

Me too, as to Clowney, if Texas can’t pay him and they are at the very least entertaining a trade, does it need to be a first and Lawson?

[YoloinOhio]

2 minutes ago, chris heff said:

Me too, as to Clowney, if Texas can’t pay him and they are at the very least entertaining a trade, does it need to be a first and Lawson?

Don’t think they need a 1st and a player. OBJ took a 1st, a 3rd, and a player. But in this case I think a 2nd and Lawson is about right. If it has to be a first, then no player, but no use for Lawson if we have Clowney imo unless There is an injury 

[K-9]

18 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

I just feel like a 26 year old Clowney has immense upside in this defense.  He's exactly what McD likes at end, and I think he has been misused in Houston.

 

I hate looking at next years draft class this far out.  Things always change. 

There’s a lot of truth to this. 

[LABILLBACKER]

Love how the thread title omits 1st round pick. Lawson and a 2nd I'd consider, but Clowney is still going to want more than he's worth....

[HOUSE]

2 hours ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

[Victory Formation]

7 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Love how the thread title omits 1st round pick. Lawson and a 2nd I'd consider, but Clowney is still going to want more than he's worth....

You'd certainly be paying him based off what he could be and not so much as for what he's done. He can be a double digit sack guy and to me a trade would be contingent on a contract that's fair both ways and with certain incentives that would compensate Clowney on a level that is fair to his own self perceived value while also protecting Terry's pocketbook. 

Edited May 10, 2019 by NewDayBills

[DrDawkinstein]

We simply CANT give up a 1st going into a legendary WR class next year. Plus, I hate trading 1sts for a player you also have to immediately sign to a huge deal.

 

I'd consider doing it for Shaq and a 2nd.