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tomur67

Trade Lawson and a 2020 draft pick for Clowney?

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If he had more productivity I’d give a first but the production just hasn’t been there.  I’d give a 2nd.  Paying an unproductive pass rusher 20 mill-+ a year plus trading away our best 2020 asset just seems like a vast overpay.  We could get a pass rusher that actually gets sacks and only pay him 3-7 mill a year for several years.  Or an all pro WR we’d be paying pennies.  20mill+ per plus a 1st......ugh.  

 

Not sure he ever made 1st team all pro (oh yes I do.  He’s extremely overhyped).  4 forced fumbles in his entire career. Zero playoff sacks in his career.  Meh.  Looks good in a uniform. Underwhelming results 

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6 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Fair point but I see no scenario where we would be using our 1st next year on a QB.  Even if Allen is not the guy, we probably won't no for at least another year.

I don’t think there is any scenario, except horrible injury, where we take a QB next year either. But without knowing what our O is capable of, it’s too risky to give up a pick that could be top 10.

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18 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Clowney would have to agree to an extension before I made the deal. And I’d have no problem trading next year’s first. Would people really pass up Jadeveon Clowney if he was sitting there when it’s our turn to pick? Really? 

I would pass on him in a split second. Everything that this team needs is in the 2020 draft. There are probably at least 5 receivers who are better than any who came out in 2019. 

 

We have a QB who can throw the ball 5 miles through a brick wall. Let's get him some receivers!

 

I wish that we had even more picks in 2020.

 

Jmo.

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5 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

To play DE after Clowney leaves 

Obviously ...my point is they would probably prefer someone better

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5 minutes ago, nucci said:

 

or improves

I think it is much more likely that Allen improves. But when analyzing risk you typically take the chance of occurrence and the impact of the risk and apply a function to score it.

 

I’m risk averse, so I wouldn’t gamble with my 1st round pick without more confidence that our O is a top 16 unit.

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1 minute ago, Bill from NYC said:

I would pass on him in a split second. Everything that this team needs is in the 2020 draft. There are probably at least 5 receivers who are better than any who came out in 2019. 

 

We have a QB who can throw the ball 5 miles through a brick wall. Let's get him some receivers!

 

I wish that we had even more picks in 2020.

 

Jmo.

I can’t say I disagree about the talent coming out next year and it makes sense to put premium talent around your young QB. I’d certainly be happy with a great wideout. 

 

It’s early in the evaluation process for next year’s draft class and I’ll be interested to see how the rankings develop. But at this early juncture, it’s hard for me to believe that any player will be more highly ranked than Clowney. And Clowney plays the second most impactful position in the game to boot. It would be hard to pass on him, imo. 

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12 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I’m good with a first. I just don’t think there is much comparison with a 2021 comp pick either way. 

 

I agree that a first and Lawson is reasonable, but I am not sure our first will be.  A lot depends on the expectations for the team - and Allen - this season.  If they are confident that they’d be trading away a pick in the 20s, then it is an easy deal to make.  If they’re worried it’ll be a top 10 pick again, then they can’t pull the trigger.

 

There is a lot of optimism here for our record, but Vegas doesn’t share that.  Only 4 teams have an expected win total lower than the Bills. And two more have the same at 6.5.  That would put us between picks 5 and 7. There’s no way I’d give up that for Clowney.  I’d use those low expectations and offer Lawson, our 2020 second plus our 2021 3rd.  Those two picks would put us in the equivalent range of a low first. 

 

This regime isn’t on the collective hot seat so I don’t see them taking the chance of offering our 2020 first and Lawson unless they are very confident that our record will exceed outside expectations and have us drafting in the 20s.  Still, it’s a risk.  Allen is big but he ran a lot last season.  What if he gets injured early and the season tanks?

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4 minutes ago, nucci said:

Obviously ...my point is they would probably prefer someone better

Sure they would but people in hell want ice water. If a team willing to trade a high draft pick  for  clowney had a better DE than Lawson to throw in  they wouldn’t be trading a high draft pick for Clowney in the first place

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Clowney is a good but not great pass rusher. He's  better than Lawson in that regard but has the benefit of playing opposite JJ Watt who draws a lot of attention. Under no circumstances would I give up a  pick in the first 2 days for him. His salary will be high and might limit you in the future as well. I'd pass on him. DE might be priority #1 next year in the draft.

Edited by BubbaT
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Why would they take Lawson when he didn't fit there defense when we had 34 under footboy? Hughes makes more sense.

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I’ll probably get flamed for this but clowney to me anyways isn’t that big of an upgrade over Lawson. 

He’s obviously more elite in the run stopping category but 100 million more elite? 

He can rush the passer to a certain extent but with Watt and Mercilus he wasn’t exactly lighting up the sack category. Houston has used him all over the formation from outside linebacker to both end spots and even as a DT in their 4-3 or nickel sets and his impact just doesn’t equal the money for me. My opinion is that they can get the same impact/stats from the Lawson Murphy combo. There was a time when you couldn’t simply acquire elite talent via trades without giving up a kings ransom, now we’re seeing elite level players being moved for pennies. I would hate to give away a high pick for a player who has not been able to takeover games on a very talented defense. 

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4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

If he had more productivity I’d give a first but the production just hasn’t been there.  I’d give a 2nd.  Paying an unproductive pass rusher 20 mill-+ a year plus trading away our best 2020 asset just seems like a vast overpay.  We could get a pass rusher that actually gets sacks and only pay him 3-7 mill a year for several years.  Or an all pro WR we’d be paying pennies.  20mill+ per plus a 1st......ugh.  

 

Not sure he ever made 1st team all pro (oh yes I do.  He’s extremely overhyped).  4 forced fumbles in his entire career. Zero playoff sacks in his career.  Meh.  Looks good in a uniform. Underwhelming results 

Totally agree with this. Way too high a cost IMO. If we were to throw in a player like Shaq who was a first rounder regardless of his production to date then the accompanying draft pick should be a third or fourth for a player with Clowney’s production to date or lack there of along with his injury history. Get him on a good deal for us or walk away. We aren’t desperate.

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1 hour ago, tomur67 said:

John Breech of CBS Sports suggests that it would be a logical trade between the Texans and the Bills.  The Bills would get Clowney,  but give up its first round pick in 2020 and Lawson. 

 

If the Bills don’t throw in shaq would the Texans do it for a third? 

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4 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

I’ll probably get flamed for this but clowney to me anyways isn’t that big of an upgrade over Lawson. 

He’s obviously more elite in the run stopping category but 100 million more elite? 

He can rush the passer to a certain extent but with Watt and Mercilus he wasn’t exactly lighting up the sack category. Houston has used him all over the formation from outside linebacker to both end spots and even as a DT in their 4-3 or nickel sets and his impact just doesn’t equal the money for me. My opinion is that they can get the same impact/stats from the Lawson Murphy combo. There was a time when you couldn’t simply acquire elite talent via trades without giving up a kings ransom, now we’re seeing elite level players being moved for pennies. I would hate to give away a high pick for a player who has not been able to takeover games on a very talented defense. 

His best season was the one where Watt was hurt. Also in their defense he won't ever get a lot of sacks.

Edited by CuddyDark

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We have the money to extend Hughes and give Clowney a new deal.  Our defense is set for the next few years at an elite status with this move.  

 

What people may or may not be factoring in when it comes to a 1st Round Pick, is that with Clowney, we should expect to be a playoff team.  That means we're drafting in the 20's.  This most likely wouldn't be another #9 pick.

 

I'd still be 50/50 on it, but would be ok with giving up Lawson and a 1st if that's what it came to.

 

We'd still have money next year to resign our guys and then have an entire draft, 2nd Round on, to focus on the offense and depth.  

 

Defense would be stacked this year and next.

 

Ideally OL is set for this year, and next, with Nsekhe, Ford, Morse, Dawkins and then we hope that some of Spain, Long, Feliciano etc warrant new contracts after 2019.  We're all cautiously optimistic that we have our QB in Allen, and we can focus on RB/WR next offseason/draft.

 

Edited by SCBills
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58 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

But is it worth not having Clowney in 2019?  I mean they are in win-now mode, right?  Watt isn't getting any younger.

Then keep Clowney and lose him to free agency. Too much really good wr talent at the top of the draft next year. Our window really starts next year. We're not the team with urgency, so we don't have to pay a premium. If the Texans want a second, okay, but the first is off the table.

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28 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

The Bills have strategically put themselves in the position to pay these types of players if they want to. They have one big time contract on the books - Morse. They have only one coming up - Tre White. QB on year 2 of rookie contract. This is when you make these deals. They could have no vet Pass rushers under contract next year. Clowney is in his prime.Contending teams have several blue chip players who are vets and they are $$. 

This is a legitimate question, is Clowney the type of player the Bills want? Isn’t the knock on him that he takes plays off? I know there was a lot of hype when he was drafted. Has he lived up to it? I know there were injuries early on and I know he has been better the last two years.

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