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tomur67

Trade Lawson and a 2020 draft pick for Clowney?

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4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Interesting.......what did you think about the 18 free agents they paid this offseason for what they did for their other teams?  

They needed Morse desperately since he was a veteran center (which they wanted) and one of only 2 available. That, to me, was a necessary big ticket contract. Brown and Beasley also got good size dollars. I'd have been happier if we had drafted guys in the past to fill those spots that were just as good but I get they want to surround Allen to win now AND to better evaluate what they have with him.  They couldnt wait for that evaluation and to not get him help would have been mismanagement.  Vet wideouts on a team with a roster this shallow on offense  makes sense to me. The contracts are not lengthy. Our drafting has not been good so to compete they have had to get into the free agent market with both feet

 

The rest of the free agents signings are mid level make good deals or 1 year deals they can get out from under in a short period of time. Clowney wants to be paid like the pass rusher he is not. He has had injuries. Houston doesnt want to pay him either. The Bills, per Spotrac,  have a cap hit for 3 DE's Hughes, Murphy and Lawson of $22.3M. The calculated value for Clowney, per Spotrac,  is $16.6 M per year for 6 years.  To me the risk to reward is not there. I get that a lot of  people on this board like big flashy names but those contracts are an albatross in the long run. Draft your own stars and pay them for what they do for you. If they get hurt, the cap concerns are minimal. Sure you need to fill in a roster with free agents from time to time but be  judicious with it and base it on need, position and what else is out there. 

 

The Bills were in the unique and unfortunate situation last year of having nearly $50M in dead money. Their roster would have been much more complete and intact if they had had that money to work with. Their free agent signings this year are making up for the pathetic roster they had to play with while in "cap jail". A sure fire way to get back there is to overspend on the wrong player. Clowney, in my opinion (it's just mine, it doesnt have to be yours) is the wrong guy to give that kind of money to.

Edited by BubbaT
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2 hours ago, blacklabel said:

I wouldn't trade a first round pick for Clowney and I'm pretty sure Beane wouldn't either. The dude's highest sack total was 9.5 in 2017, half a sack more than Trent Murphy had in 2016 and half this board thinks that guy should be cut. Clowney just isn't worth it. Good player, but not the "once in a lifetime generational talent" he was built up to be. And yeah, that's just a numbers comparison. I know Clowney is the better overall defender, he's more disruptive and can line up in a number of different spots. Still wouldn't trade a first.

 

And despite turning 31 in August, Jerry Hughes is still playing really good ball. Sack numbers might not always be there but he's also very disruptive and gets a lot of pressure on the QB. I see no reason why the guy can't continue to play the way he has and if he turns in another solid season I'd be all for paying him again. Give him a two or three-year deal and then after that they can do one-year deals or periodic extensions kind of like how they handled Kyle's contract over his last few years. 

Counterpoint: Clowney is miscast in Houston's 3-4 base D and is a much better fit with some monster potential as a 4-3 DE

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6 hours ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

In a video showing a behind the scenes look in the draft war room, it showed that they would have had to give up a 2020 4th, as part of a package to move back into the 1st for Cody Ford and Beane wouldn't do it.  That just shows you how he values future picks, which means that it's highly unlikely that he makes a trade for Clowney.

Perhaps you should watch that video again.

 

What is shown in that video is Beane offering THIS YEAR’S 40, 131, and 147 to move back up into the first. The unidentified team on the other end did not accept that offer.

 

 Maybe you’re confusing what occurred later when Chicago offered Beane #87 in this year’s draft plus their 2020 4th round pick in exchange for our third round pick. Beane said no and chose Singletary. 

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The Raiders gave up a 3 & a 5 for Brown.  

 

So why would anyone want to give up a #2 and a decent player?  

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Is there even the slightest chance that the Texans and Bills are considering this , or is it just media speculation about it being a “logical” move?

 

Why would the Texans be looking at being without a key defensive piece in 2019 for a future draft pick when they made the playoffs last year and their Super Bowl window is well and truly open?

 

Would be a terrible move for them..

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I'm not sure because I don't know what Clowney's ceiling is. He has made a very slow climb each year in the NFL and is now borderline elite. Is this his ceiling or will he make yet another step up? As far as giving up a 1st round pick for a non-QB is considered, he'd have to be another Khalil Mack. If Clowney can become a 12+ sack guy, then OK. Otherwise, a 2nd is all I'd give up. Also consider the fact that we won't be picking in the top 10, but still in the top 16 perhaps. The value isn't the same.

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20 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Texans got more cap money than the Bills.  They got Hopkins locked up for years under a good team contract.

Watt is signed for 2 more and they can jettison him if his plays drops off a lot for no dead.

Watson doesn't need to be signed next year.

Texans have big money to spend next year too.

 

Something isn't right about why they want to dump JC.   There entire front office is the same as when they drafted him.

 

 

Bills definitely can afford him but IF he is such a good deal and you take the Bills out of the equation why hasn't other teams jumped on this?

 

 

Good point.  I don't see Beane giving up next years 1 for anything.

 

If the Bills can work out a deal with the Texans it can't have next years 1 in it.

IMO

They aren’t cutting J.J. watt. He’s the face of the franchise and the city. Their entire FO isn’t the same. The GM is new. Typically you don’t give max contracts to two players on the same DL as a matter of cap management. They should be smart about the cap like the Colts are. I think clowney would be better off elsewhere anyway.

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8 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

They aren’t cutting J.J. watt. He’s the face of the franchise and the city. Their entire FO isn’t the same. The GM is new. Typically you don’t give max contracts to two players on the same DL as a matter of cap management. They should be smart about the cap like the Colts are. I think clowney would be better off elsewhere anyway.

 

...quick question bud.....do you see a "Watt Factor" in Clowney's recent resurgence post injuries or has he become a "solo force"?.....

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7 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

They aren’t cutting J.J. watt. He’s the face of the franchise and the city. Their entire FO isn’t the same. The GM is new. Typically you don’t give max contracts to two players on the same DL as a matter of cap management. They should be smart about the cap like the Colts are. I think clowney would be better off elsewhere anyway.

 

True, but Gaine was Director of Player Personnel when HOU drafted Clowney.

I know they wouldn't want to get rid of Watt.  His 15 million per is with no dead money and is not that high of a price.

I'm not a fan of restructuring contracts but Watts would be perfect to do that when they need to pay big QB dollars.

Clowney's play is affected a lot by having Watt on the team and I just wonder if the Texans feel he isn't worth the money he wants.

 

It's all speculation on my part but it just doesn't feel right for a team to give up a 1st AND a big contract for him.

 

 

16 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...quick question bud.....do you see a "Watt Factor" in Clowney's recent resurgence post injuries or has he become a "solo force"?.....

 

That's a good question Oldtime.  I would like to hear Beane's answer to that.

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The way the Bills are drafting I wouldn't part with a first round pick for a player like Clowney.  He is a fringe star that is looking for super star money.

 

The Bills would be rolling the dice as much on Clowney as they would on Shaq.  Clowney's motor has been questioned since his days in college.  Although he has shown flashes of brilliance, he isn't the dominant pass rusher many projected he'd be

 

Obviously, Clowney has more upside than Shaq.  The question is how much is that upside worth?

 

I'd give Houston a 4th and Shaq for Clowney  Even with that, your most likely going to have to sign a guy to a contract more than what his production warrants.  Trading for him to play out a franchise tag makes no sense, and isn't something Beane would do.

 

Thats why I see him staying in Houston and playing out a franchise year.  If he blows up, he'll get paid by Houston.  If not, Bills will get him for free in 10 months.

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..assuming that Clowney is now long term healthy, how much of a role has Watt played in his resurgence?..a lot?......somewhat?.....negligible?.....if, IF we traded for him, who on Blfo fills the Watt role if he has had an effect or can Clowney be a solo force for his expected $20 mil/yr tariff?...just curious.......

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25 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

..assuming that Clowney is now long term healthy, how much of a role has Watt played in his resurgence?..a lot?......somewhat?.....negligible?.....if, IF we traded for him, who on Blfo fills the Watt role if he has had an effect or can Clowney be a solo force for his expected $20 mil/yr tariff?...just curious.......

Oliver and Hughes will more than fill Watt's role.

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15 minutes ago, cba fan said:

Oliver and Hughes will more than fill Watt's role.

....good observation...next question is if the guesstimate of $20 mil/yr reasonable?.....if not, what do you see as a fair number?...

Edited by OldTimeAFLGuy

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42 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

....good observation...next question is if the guesstimate of $20 mil/yr reasonable?.....if not, what do you see as a fair number?...

I really think it's fair. People act like he hasn't produced and I think that's a result of not quite meeting expectations. This guy is 26 years old, an athletic freak, and trending upwards with 9 plus sacks in each of the last two seasons. I would give a 2nd/20 mil/year in a second. I'd strongly consider a first. 

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I would include a second for Clowney...question is, do the Bills want to pay the 20 Million even though they need a DE. They have to get one anyway.

Edited by Rocket94

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3 minutes ago, Rocket94 said:

I would include a second for Clowney...question is, do the Bills want to pay the 20 Million even though they need a DE. They have to get one anyway.

 

...that number for a single player investment may be beyond McBeane's wheel house IMO...just sayin'...........

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3 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...that number for a single player investment may be beyond McBeane's wheel house IMO...just sayin'...........

I know...the 20 million could be the deal breaker on a possible deal. Clowney may fit well on that line. If he is healthy, he seems to provide a better option than some of the other names floating around.

Edited by Rocket94

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17 minutes ago, Rocket94 said:

I know...the 20 million could be the deal breaker on a possible deal. Clowney may fit well on that line. If he is healthy, he seems to provide a better option than some of the other names floating around.

...agree it is a tough call.....could see McBeane extending Hughes for perhaps two years and looking to 2020 for his premier guy......what the hell do I know though.........

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29 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...that number for a single player investment may be beyond McBeane's wheel house IMO...just sayin'...........

Legit talent at premier positions cost money.  There is all this talk about salary cap he’ll we had.  Well, that was because Dareus was an all pro DT.  The test for McBeane will be if these young player develop into elite players and demand big money.  

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