One way to help Josh Allen's accuracy: Fewer dropped passes

[HOUSE]

 

By Mark Gaughan|Published May 6, 2019|Updated May 6, 2019

Here’s a reason to hope Josh Allen is bound for improvement in his second year as the Buffalo Bills’ quarterback:

Maybe his receiving corps will drop fewer passes.

The Bills had too many drops in 2018. In fact, Allen had the second highest rate of dropped passes of any quarterback in the NFL last season, according to a recent study by Pro Football Focus.

Allen saw dropped passes on 6.3 percent of his throws, behind only Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles, who had a drop rate of 7.7 percent. The Bills' receivers combined to drop 20 passes on 320 attempts by Allen, according to PFF.

With free-agent signings mostly completed and the NFL draft in the books, Bills fans have four months to contemplate whether the team has done enough to help Allen take a great leap forward

Allen ranked last among all starting quarterbacks last season in completion percentage at just 52.8. The league average was 64.8 percent.

The addition of 13 unrestricted free-agent signings on offense has created high expectations of improvement.

“We drafted Josh last year and we saw some of his strengths, but some of the things we didn’t feel, and we, I’m putting it on me, didn’t do a good enough job with personnel around him to help him be the best version of himself on the field,” Bills general manager Brandon Beane said on draft weekend.

Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones each had four drops for the Bills last year, according to News game charts. Benjamin, released by the Bills in December, had three drops from Allen and one from Matt Barkley. Tight end Logan Thomas, who left the Bills in free agency and signed with Detroit, had three drops last season.

(Here's an example of a drop by Jones in Week 15 that wasn't an easy grab but should have been caught.)

Open to watch dropped passes...

https://buffalonews.com/2019/05/06/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-accuracy-dropped-passes-kelvin-benjamin-charles-clay-completion-percentage/

Edited May 7, 2019 by HOUSE

[wppete]

[The Wiz]

[TroutDog]

While it’s been debated to death here, the biggest drop was by Clay against Miami. I believe he should have caught it giving us and Josh the win. 

 

With that being said, we would, more than likely, not have ended up with Oliver if he did so...

[Doc]

It was more than 20 passes dropped. 

[Jay_Fixit]

Another way is to be more accurate.

[HOUSE]

[BarleyNY]

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#completionPercentageAboveExpectation

 

Allen isn’t doing well with advanced metrics that account for things like drops and quality of receivers though.  He’s dead last in Time To Throw and third last in  Completion Percentage Above Expectation.  One can argue that his TTT mark is mitigated somewhat by his ability to buy time to throw, but it’s also due to him almost never getting the ball out on his drops.  That has to improve.  Ditto his accuracy/timing.  Hopefully the training he has been doing with his footwork helps there.  He will have an improved cast around him so hopefully the experience he got last year and the work he’s done in the offseason help him take that big step forward. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

I'd like to know his stats in relation to balls thrown away and clocked ( I think they count.)  It seems he had more than typical situations where he escaped the pocket and threw the ball away prior to going out-of-bounds.  Actually, there should have been a couple more of those types of throws rather than throwing into coverage and getting picked.  As a % it seems like it was higher with him than most.  Maybe TransPlanted knows.

 

Wait, I found his thread on page 2.  He was very high in throwaways/spikes.  Looks to be as big or even bigger contributor to his low completion% than the drops.  His high drop % ( lets say half) accounts for ~ 3 points of his "incompletion % and his higher throaways/spikes account for another 3 or 4 percentage points of it.  All of a sudden the rookie lowest 52.5% looks like a phoney issue.  Nice work TransplantedBillsFan.

Edited May 7, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[Hapless Bills Fan]

31 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

By Mark Gaughan|Published May 6, 2019|Updated May 6, 2019

Here’s a reason to hope Josh Allen is bound for improvement in his second year as the Buffalo Bills’ quarterback:

Maybe his receiving corps will drop fewer passes.

The Bills had too many drops in 2018. In fact, Allen had the second highest rate of dropped passes of any quarterback in the NFL last season, according to a recent study by Pro Football Focus.

Allen saw dropped passes on 6.3 percent of his throws, behind only Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles, who had a drop rate of 7.7 percent. The Bills' receivers combined to drop 20 passes on 320 attempts by Allen, according to PFF.

(...)

Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones each had four drops for the Bills last year, according to News game charts. Benjamin, released by the Bills in December, had three drops from Allen and one from Matt Barkley. Tight end Logan Thomas, who left the Bills in free agency and signed with Detroit, had three drops last season.

(Here's an example of a drop by Jones in Week 15 that wasn't an easy grab but should have been caught.)

Open to watch dropped passes...

https://buffalonews.com/2019/05/06/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-accuracy-dropped-passes-kelvin-benjamin-charles-clay-completion-percentage/

 

Just a comment that I would be very surprised if the film clip pulled by TBN and flagged by Gaughn as "an example of a drop", would actually be scored as a drop by whoever is creating that stat - I think it's ESPN?  If the player has to extend his arms fully and leave his feet to get his hands on the ball, they don't score that as a drop. 
 

This standard says drops are "incomplete passes where the receiver SHOULD have caught the pass with ORDINARY effort."

"Only use this if the receiver is 100 percent at fault and no one else can be blamed for the incompletion," ESPN tells its game charters. "Pass interference that wasn't called/passes thrown just outside the receiver's reach, etc., are NOT drops."

 

So there are two issues:

1) actual passes that are scored as drops - "ordinary effort", seems to be the ball reaches the WR within a shoulder-width rectangle extending from the top of his head to his thighs

2) passes that top NFL WR manage to haul in and hang onto routinely.  Watch Thielen, Diggs, Hill, Woods, Jordy Nelson in his prime etc for this.

 

We need fewer drops, AND Allen needs to help himself by delivering more passes that are more on target and  lower-degree-of-difficulty to catch, AND we need some better WR who haul in those higher degree of difficulty but makeable catches.

 

[K-9]

Fewer dropped passes will help his completion percentage, won’t do much for his accuracy, though. 

[Bangarang]

Fewer dropped passes helps increase his completion percentage. Accuracy and completion percentage aren’t always the same.

Edited May 7, 2019 by Bangarang

[Doc]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just a comment that I would be very surprised if the film clip pulled by TBN and flagged by Gaughn as "an example of a drop", would actually be scored as a drop by whoever is creating that stat - I think it's ESPN?  If the player has to extend his arms fully and leave his feet to get his hands on the ball, they don't score that as a drop. 
 

This standard says drops are "incomplete passes where the receiver SHOULD have caught the pass with ORDINARY effort."

"Only use this if the receiver is 100 percent at fault and no one else can be blamed for the incompletion," ESPN tells its game charters. "Pass interference that wasn't called/passes thrown just outside the receiver's reach, etc., are NOT drops."

 

So there are two issues:

1) actual passes that are scored as drops - "ordinary effort", seems to be the ball reaches the WR within a shoulder-width rectangle extending from the top of his head to his thighs

2) passes that top NFL WR manage to haul in and hang onto routinely.  Watch Thielen, Diggs, Hill, Woods, Jordy Nelson in his prime etc for this.

 

We need fewer drops, AND Allen needs to help himself by delivering more passes that are more on target and  lower-degree-of-difficulty to catch, AND we need some better WR who haul in those higher degree of difficulty but makeable catches.

 

 

In that video showing the drops by Josh’s receivers last year, there were 34 or so where the receiver didn’t need to make an extraordinary effort to catch the ball. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

A lot of the drops are also the result of the velocity and the force the ball is coming at these receivers sometime.  I can recall several Zay Jones drops resulting from this.

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Fewer dropped passes helps increase his completion percentage. Accuracy and completion percentage always the same.

 

Not sure if they last sentence was you being facetious, but no, they’re not. 

[GG]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

Not sure if they last sentence was you being facetious, but no, they’re not. 

 

It was when everyone was screaming about Allen's sub 60% completion rate

[JESSEFEFFER]

6 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

In that video showing the drops by Josh’s receivers last year, there were 34 or so where the receiver didn’t need to make an extraordinary effort to catch the ball. 

 

 

I think some of those you reference would be scored as a pbu.  I don't think it can be both. it's one or the other, a drop or a pbu.  At least that's my thinking.  If it's in the receivers' hands and it gets ripped or knocked out before he can secure it, is that a drop or a pbu?

[Shooter McGavin]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-2019-free-agency-profile-john-brown

 

“The five-year veteran has also struggled with drops, producing the seventh-worst drop rate among wideouts and dropping seven of his 49 catchable targets this season.”

 

I initially liked the signing, but his hands still worry me. 

[JoshBarnett]

To add to the discussion, here are the 20 drops as registered by PFF with week, time on clock, down and distance, receiver and notes from the weekly game book on the play (Note, that the gamebook descriptions vary in detail from week to week based on the stadium and the stats crew at that particular venue). 

 

As noted, Mark's tabulation has four additional drops beyond PFF. 

 

Specific to the Charles Clay play in Miami, we asked the PFF analyst to look at the film again and give us more detail. "His adjustment takes place in enough time by our grading standpoint as well that it should have / could have been caught. Still would have been a good catch from Clay to make it happen – and the wobbly ball trajectory from Allen does effect it a bit, in my own personal opinion, but still goes in a drop by our standards as it does look like he gets (or could get) his hands to it before it reaches the ground."

 

Week 1 - Q3, 3:34 – Second-and-5, Kelvin Benjamin – short middle, from shotgun

Week 1 - Q4, 14:35 – First-and-10, Marcus Murphy – short right, from shotgun

Week 2 - Q3, 5:45 – Third-and-10, Andre Holmes – short right, from shotgun

Week 2 - Q4, 0:59 – First-and-10, Marcus Murphy – short right, dump pass, from shotgun

Week 3 - Q1, 7:31 – Third-and-6, Kelvin Benjamin – short right, from shotgun

Week 3 - Q2, 3:57 – Second-and-6, Robert Foster – deep left

Week 4 - Q1, 8:14 – First-and-10, Kelvin Benjamin – short right

Week 4 - Q2, 7:44 – Third-and-5, Andre Holmes – short left, from shotgun

Week 5 - Q4, 8:03 – Second-and-7, Andre Holmes – deep right, pass would then be intercepted, from shotgun

Week 12 - Q2, 0:23 – Second-and-6, Jason Croom – through receiver’s hands along sideline, from shotgun

Week 13 - Q4, 1:05 – Fourth-and-11, Charles Clay – deep right, from shotgun

Week 14 - Q1, 11:48 – First-and-10, LeSean McCoy – screen pass short left, from shotgun

Week 14 - Q1, 6:09 – Second-and-6, Charles Clay – short middle, receiver cross from right

Week 14 - Q2, 0:47 –First-and-10, Zay Jones – short left through receiver’s hands, from shotgun

Week 14 - Q4, 8:45 – Second-and-20, Zay Jones – short right, receiver in flat, from shotgun

Week 14 - Q4, 2:40 – Third-and-5, Zay Jones – deep right, receiver in end zone, from shotgun

Week 16 - Q1, 11:08 – Third-and-5, Isaiah McKenzie – short middle

Week 16 - Q3, 10:21 – Second-and-10, Logan Thomas – deep right, from shotgun

Week 16 - Q4, 6:57 – Second-and-12, Keith Ford – short left, from shotgun

Week 17 - Q2, 13:48 – Second-and-19, LeSean McCoy – receiver in flat

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I think some of those you reference would be scored as a pbu.  I don't think it can be both. it's one or the other, a drop or a pbu.  At least that's my thinking.  If it's in the receivers' hands and it gets ripped or knocked out before he can secure it, is that a drop or a pbu?

 

I don’t recall seeing any PBUs in that video, and I agree those are different from drops.  

[ngbills]

What people fail to realize or maybe choose to ignore is the impact timing, accuracy, ball placement and decision making have on drops. Its not one directional - drops only decrease completion % thus accuracy.

 

You throw a better football in the right places and you will have less drops. You throw the underneath or the check down instead of throwing downfield when he is not open.

 

Yes, better WR's can help bail out a less accurate QB. But lets stop making excuses. Prior to the draft he was considered inaccurate. After playing his first season he proved to be inaccurate. That is on him, not on the drops. He can make improvements in both accuracy and in decision making that can and should greatly help his accuracy. 

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

Those pesky “dropped passes”.  Been plaguing Josh Allen since his JV days of High School.

 

If I were Allen, his agent or his parents I’d think there was some conspiracy going on.

 

No matter if it is High School, College or the NFL.

 

sub 60 % completion.

 

I mean...what do all these WRs have against Allen?  No matter where Allen goes he just seems to have the worst luck of being stuck with WRs that cannot catch.  Or they are all out to get him.

 

I mean those are the only two possible reasons, right?

[FeelingOnYouboty]

He can start hitting his guys in the flat when it's open to him. 

[billybob71]

Josh Allen sucks Bills are doomed

30 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

Those pesky “dropped passes”.  Been plaguing Josh Allen since his JV days of High School.

 

If I were Allen, his agent or his parents I’d think there was some conspiracy going on.

 

No matter if it is High School, College or the NFL.

 

sub 60 % completion.

 

I mean...what do all these WRs have against Allen?  No matter where Allen goes he just seems to have the worst luck of being stuck with WRs that cannot catch.  Or they are all out to get him.

 

I mean those are the only two possible reasons, right?

Josh Allen sucks Bills are doomed to another 17 yr drought.   JK

[Juice_32]

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

Fewer dropped passes helps increase his completion percentage. Accuracy and completion percentage always the same.

Gotta disagree. Completion percentage equals catches. Accuracy equals ball placement. May seem like splitting hairs, but accurate ball placement is often the difference between receivers being able to make a play after the catch or not or preventing the defender from making a play or not. 

[Toesy]

It is not just the drops-every week in the NFL now you see receivers-sometimes even RBs-make catches they have no business making-just amazing plays-one handed catches used to be unusual-not now-I don't remember even one incredible catch last year from a Bill. Josh Allen is a strong QB already-you don't win with just one player-the rest of the offense needs to step it up. 

[buffalover4life]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

What people fail to realize or maybe choose to ignore is the impact timing, accuracy, ball placement and decision making have on drops. Its not one directional - drops only decrease completion % thus accuracy.

 

You throw a better football in the right places and you will have less drops. You throw the underneath or the check down instead of throwing downfield when he is not open.

 

Yes, better WR's can help bail out a less accurate QB. But lets stop making excuses. Prior to the draft he was considered inaccurate. After playing his first season he proved to be inaccurate. That is on him, not on the drops. He can make improvements in both accuracy and in decision making that can and should greatly help his accuracy. 

 

Thats a cop out. Receivers job is to catch footballs. While I agree that there were situations where josh could have taken some off, our teams drops were largely due to bad hands.. 

[BmarvB]

KB and Clay are gone now so that should help solve that problem

[JESSEFEFFER]

25 minutes ago, Toesy said:

It is not just the drops-every week in the NFL now you see receivers-sometimes even RBs-make catches they have no business making-just amazing plays-one handed catches used to be unusual-not now-I don't remember even one incredible catch last year from a Bill. Josh Allen is a strong QB already-you don't win with just one player-the rest of the offense needs to step it up. 

 

I think a highlight reel of amazing, circus style catches from last year would be pretty short.  I can't think of a top 3.  Maybe start a thread:  The Most Amazing Catches of the 2018 Bills Season!.  Ask for nominees.  Maybe someone can come up with a couple to refresh my memory.  Crickets, I'd bet.

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

I don’t recall seeing any PBUs in that video, and I agree those are different from drops.  

 

There were definitely a couple. One against the Lions (by Slay) and one other (maybe against the Jags?) that stand out in my memory.

[nucci]

This just gives everyone something to talk about regarding Allen...he did make some bad throws but also threw some beautiful deep TDs to Foster and threw well in late season games...he'll be fine

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

There were definitely a couple. One against the Lions (by Slay) and one other (maybe against the Jags?) that stand out in my memory.

 

Sorry, I meant out of the 34 that I counted as drops. 

[GunnerBill]

50 minutes ago, Toesy said:

It is not just the drops-every week in the NFL now you see receivers-sometimes even RBs-make catches they have no business making-just amazing plays-one handed catches used to be unusual-not now-I don't remember even one incredible catch last year from a Bill. Josh Allen is a strong QB already-you don't win with just one player-the rest of the offense needs to step it up. 

 

Certainly think this is true. Not plays you can expect a receiver to make every time but a catch that a receiver will make once or twice a season and if they all do that (your top 5 receivers, your top 2 backs and your top 2 tight ends) that is 18 catches over the season. Those 18 catches take Josh's completion percentage to 58%.

 

Worth saying that I still agree with K9 above about accuracy vs completion % - it was a point I made over and over with Tyrod (completed does not = accurate) but if we are purely focussed on trying to complete more balls which helps move the chains then those great catches make a difference.

3 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Sorry, I meant out of the 34 that I counted as drops. 

 

Ah sorry Doc. Thought you meant from the video as a whole.

[transplantbillsfan]

Geez... are these people like just watching last season or something????

 

First the PFF thread acknowledges Allen had the 2nd highest drop rate in the NFL... duuuuhhhh!

 

Now this article arguing it in an actual article.

 

Been arguing since the season ended that Allen's completion percentage was less a product of him than the talent surrounding him. 

I guess better late to the party than not showing up at all.

Edited May 7, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[Mr. WEO]

I wonder if this would apply to all QBs....

Edited May 7, 2019 by Mr. WEO

[eball]

2 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Allen ranked last among all starting quarterbacks last season in completion percentage at just 52.8. The league average was 64.8 percent.

 

This equates to roughly three more completions per game, if you've got between 25-30 attempts.  If all Josh does is improve his short game (dump offs and check downs) I see this gap closing significantly.

[nickrage]

He’s got to learn to take a little off his throws at times too

i recall a few times where he blasted the receivers with the ball and they weren’t able to hang on

[Forward Progress]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

Gotta disagree. Completion percentage equals catches. Accuracy equals ball placement. May seem like splitting hairs, but accurate ball placement is often the difference between receivers being able to make a play after the catch or not or preventing the defender from making a play or not. 

 

I'm pretty sure Bangarang was being sarcastic in his comment and has the same view as you.  Can we get a sarcasm font on this board to eliminate these misunderstandings?

[oldmanfan]

Accuracy is not completion percentage.  Nor is it ball placement. I have posted the  dartboard analogy more than once around here:

 

 

 

Completion percentage has nothing to do with accuracy.  You could hit 20 guys right on the numbers and if they drop 10 your completion percentage is 50%.

 

People use the term ball placement.  That refers to precision or ability to hit a specific target repeatedly.  Allen is reasonably accurate; his throws are in a catchable range for the most part (although he certainly had some that were not).  Go back like I did and look at each pass over his last several games and you'll see that.  He needs to be more precise with ball placement to allow receivers to make plays after the catch, and on his shorter throws.