Why I think T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa, will be the #9 pick

[Inigo Montoya]

I wanted to put together all the reasons why I think McBeane will grab T.J. if he is there at #9 when the Bills are on the clock.

 

1.)  It has been stated many times on this board that the success or failure of the entire McBeane Era will come down to just one thing, does Josh Allen become a true franchise QB.  Helping Allen continue to develop is the single most important factor in this franchise turning the corner.  I think McBeane wants to give Josh Allen a go-to-guy that he can lean on and bail him out when needed.  They believe in that so much that they were willing to chase Antonio Brown in FA and bring him into this locker room, with all of Brown's attendant drama, and shell out some serous cash to get him into a Bill's uniform.  They understand it's critically important for Josh Allen to get some weapons on the offense.

 

2.) T.J. Hockenson is widely considered the best TE in the draft.  He won the John Mackey Award as the nations top collegiate TE.  He is the best blocking TE in the draft, has great route running skills, soft hands, and the size to go up and grab those 50/50 balls.  He is a complete TE, he can catch and block.  He is a three down TE.  He is a process guy. 

 

Combine:   "Hockenson is currently seen as the better overall prospect (over Fant), due to superior blocking abilities. Still, his athletic ability left nothing to be desired. At 6-foot-4  3/4 and 251 pounds, Hockenson’s 4.70-second time in the 40-yard dash is very good. The same goes for his 37.5-inch vertical and 10-foot-3 broad jump. However, his agility numbers are the equal of many of the better wide receivers in this year’s draft class, with a 7.02-second time in the 3-cone drill and a short shuttle time of 4.18."

 

3.)  Some say you should not select a TE at #9, it is not a premium position.  I disagree.  The NFL game is evolving on offense and many teams have built their offense around a great TE.  Gronk and the Pats for years, Ertz in Philly, Kelce in K.C., Olson in Carolina, and recently Kittle in San Fran.  They are offenses that scheme to create mismatches with their TE, too big for a corner to cover well, too fast for a LB to keep up with.  You don't need a true WR1 if you have a great TE.  We don't have a WR1 and we are not likely going to draft a WR who is going to be a WR1 this year.

 

4.)   The kid can block.  For years Shady feasted running behind the left side of our line, Glenn-Incognito-Woods.  Now imagine running behind the left side of the line with Hockenson-Nsekhe-Spain-Morse (I think Nsekhe beats out Dawkins). I think Shady will be back in business.  Better yet, the defense won't know if Hockenson is there to block on a running play, or going out into the flat or up the seam as a receiver.   In this alignment, which should be our base offensive set, it will be hard for a defense to guess run vs pass.  In Hockenson we are drafting a great TE and a solid O-lineman in one pick.  I think there is some extra value there. 

 

5.)   Of course, for this to work you need to have an offensive coordinator who understands how to utilize the TE creatively.  Enter Brian Daboll, formerly of the Rob Gronkowski Patriots.  Not only was he there to see it, he was actually the TE coach for the Pats from 2014-2016.  Gronk had 82 catches for 1,124 yards and 12 TDs in 15 games in 2014,  72 catches for 1,176 yards and 11 TDs in 15 games in 2015, and was injured in 2016 but still posted 25 catches for 540 yards and 3 TDs in only 8 games, two of which he was knocked out of early, and two others he was limited in.  I'd say Daboll understands both how to scheme for a TE, and understands the value of the TE position.

 

6.)  Daboll is not the only one who recognizes the value of a great TE.  These are quotes from Sean McDermott at the owners meeting two weeks ago about what Greg Olson meant to the development of Cam Newton and to the offense overall. "I liked it when we were on offense and it was third and about five because I knew we were going to get a 1st down because we had Greg Olson."   Talking about watching Olson in Carolina and Chad Lewis in Philly play, "I feel like I learned at an early age about how important that tight end position is to a quarterback, and particularly a young quarterback, it becomes a security blanket."  Who else watched the impact Olson had on Cam Newton as his security blanket in Carolina?  Some guy named Brandon Beane.

 

7.)   Signing Tyler Kroft does not preclude them drafting Hockenson at #9.  Once again at the owner's meeting McDermott stressed the importance of player leadership, of having a veteran leader in every position room who would hold the young guys accountable and show them the ropes.  I think McDermott learned this lesson the hard way seeing the impact a lack of veteran leadership in the QB room had on Allen's development.  I think this will be Kroft's main role, to mentor Hockenson, and hopefully Kroft will also bounce back to his 2017 form where he had 42 receptions and 7 TDs, but that would be icing on the cake.  McDermott said it plainly "Ideally, you have a leader in every room (position room), and a competition in every room because competition brings out the best in all of us."  

 

8.)   Right now we only have three TEs on the roster, Kroft, Croom, and Jake Fisher from Cincy who is a converted O-Lineman.  We rolled into the season last year with four, Clay, Croom, Logan Thomas, and Khari Lee on the roster opening day.  We definitely have space for another TE or two on the roster to take into camp.  We had six TEs in camp last year with O'Leary and Towbridge  there as well.  We will be drafting a TE in this draft. 

 

Do we go DT or EDGE in the draft at #9 and hope we can trade back up into the 1st round to grab Fant or Irv Smith?  We can try, but there is no guarantee we will be able to do that, and neither of those guys are getting out of the 1st round.  If we don't grab Hockenson at #9, we may not get an elite TE prospect in this draft at all.

 

9.)   And lastly, to circle back around to the first point, there will be some great defensive players available when we draft at #9 that would immediately upgrade the defense and address a need at DT or EDGE.  At the end of the day, the Bills will rise or fall as a franchise over the next three years based on what Josh Allen becomes.  If you have a weapon like T.J Hockenson sitting there who can be the go-to weapon that Allen needs, possibly the next Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, Olson, or even a Gronk, develop into Allen's "security blanket", be a beast in the run game, and a be high character Process kind of guy to boot, I don't know how you pass him up especially considering the lack of any WR1 on this team for Josh Allen. 

 

Will there be a learning curve for a rookie TE?   Of course, but I think McBeane sees the 2019 season as a stepping stone for 2020 (I still think we will be much improved and make the playoffs in 2019).   2019 will be the season that Hockenson learns the pro game, gels with the O-line, and develops a rapport with Allen.  I believe the plan is for this team to be good enough to contend for a Super Bowl in 2020 if Allen continues to develop.  I think Allen having a weapon like T.J. Hockenson around him is more impactful to this team taking that next step than adding another great defensive player this year.

 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by Inigo Montoya

[KRT88]

Wow, plenty of arguments made for one player. 

 

Id have no issues with the pick but it is a deep draft for TE.

[billsfan1959]

I would like to see top DL pick at 9;  however, It actually wouldn't surprise me to see the Bills draft Hockenson or Metcalf. I trust whatever direction they go.

[GimmeSomeProcess]

I like Hockenson a lot but nothing at him screams a generational talent. I think he could develop maybe into a tightend like Whitten but I see more heath miller/Todd heap.

While I’d like a player of that caliber on this roster, I would not pass on him

for a guy like Ed Oliver. Especially when we can still get a tight end like Irv Smith, Josh Oliver, Jace Stenberger or Foster Meanru in the 2nd or 3rd. 

 

Now Noah Fant that’s different 

[bkep32]

There is already a post about this please dont make another thread 

[PirateHookerMD]

If you stay at 9 I just think the value is in the D or O-line.  Darkhorse is CB. Trade back to 13-15 then sure Fant or TJ is fine. Id like to see WR/TE with pick 2. I wouldn't be surprised to see a trade back at pick 9 and a zay jones style day 2 trade up if our TE/WR target is there. 

[NewEraBills]

If this is about Josh Allen, which it is, then I I don't like the argument for Hockenson.  If Allen's best passes are to the perimeter, which if we study the tape, this is exactly the case, then I'm getting my guy someone that accentuate his strengths.  My argument has nothing to do with Hockenson as a prospect but more about Allen.  I wouldn't take at TE in the first if my QB's best throws are to the perimeter.  Secondly, Beasley, as the slot guy (something that Cam did not have a great presence here), can serve in the Greg Olsen role working the middle.

[dubs]

If it’s all about Allen, take Taylor then a TE later. 

[Inigo Montoya]

@NewEraBills

 

I think Allen can make any throw.  Hockenson & Beasley.  Gronk & Edelman. There is a precedent for having a great TE and slot guy working over a defense together.  I’m not saying the two pairs of players are equal, but the concept of how to use them is already established and Daboll knows it inside out.

 

5 minutes ago, dubs said:

If it’s all about Allen, take Taylor then a TE later. 

 

I think they did enough in FA to shore up the O-line that we don’t have to go OT at 9.

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by Inigo Montoya

[KRT88]

5 minutes ago, dubs said:

If it’s all about Allen, take Taylor then a TE later. 

How many OL are we lining up every game? 

[YoloinOhio]

I’m not usually “that guy” but common man there is an 11 page thread with this same exact topic already 

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by YoloinOhio

[atlbillsfan1975]

I will say it in everyone of these threads that gets started. I will buy the OP a beer IF the Bills draft a TE at 9. No way is it happening. I don’t think the draft a TE before the third round UNLESS one of the ‘can’t miss guys’ slips into the second half of the second round. 

You guys wanting a TE early are going to be disappointed. 

[dubs]

13 minutes ago, KRT88 said:

How many OL are we lining up every game? 

 

The five best ones

16 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

@NewEraBills

 

I think Allen can make any throw.  Hockenson & Beasley.  Gronk & Edelman. There is a precedent for having a great TE and slot guy working over a defense together.  I’m not saying the two pairs of players are equal, but the concept of how to use them is already established and Daboll knows it inside out.

 

 

I think they did enough in FA to shore up the O-line that we don’t have to go OT at 9.

 

 

I don’t think you pass up the best tackle in the draft because of what the bills did in the offseason. 

[NewEraBills]

20 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

@NewEraBills

 

I think Allen can make any throw.  Hockenson & Beasley.  Gronk & Edelman. There is a precedent for having a great TE and slot guy working over a defense together.  I’m not saying the two pairs of players are equal, but the concept of how to use them is already established and Daboll knows it inside out.

 

 

I think they did enough in FA to shore up the O-line that we don’t have to go OT at 9.

 

 

I'm not saying he cannot make any throw.  I'm focusing on his best throws.  And the best way to get a young QB to improve is to accentuate his strengths immediately.  Your premise with the pairings cited is that the NE way is the best way for Josh, and I'm suggesting that Josh and Brady are two different guys.  If I had Brady as my QB, I'd take Hockenson at 9 and not look back.  But that's not who I have.  I have a QB that likes to throw the football down the field, has the arm to do so.  I'd be focusing on TE as secondary when I have a QB with those traits.

Edited April 6, 2019 by NewEraBills

[Teddy KGB]

IN 

[HOUSE]

Never heard of him

[The BLUES Brothers]

2 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

He is a three down TE.  He is a process guy. 

 

That was one of many parts that stuck out to me...

 

A man much wiser than myself said tat Ed Oliver is such a great prospect but in our rotating player Defense, its probable our Coach would only have Oliver's position on the field 50-60% of the snaps.

 

By getting a Blocking/Catching TE - we'd have a new player that plays all the time.

 

Obviously a trade down and still getting him would be even better...

[Nester]

I think he was our pick in this weeks mock on moving the chains. Jim and Pat thought he was a game changer.

[MrEpsYtown]

I think he could be the pick because they have shown absolutely no interest in him. I said somewhere else that Hock is the kind of guy you hide your interest in. 8 is a prime spot for a trade up for teams that want him. 

Edited April 6, 2019 by MrEpsYtown

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I think you could get away with trading down a few slots and still get him around say 13 and pick up an extra pick in the process.  I'd be fine with them picking him going this route.

 

And if someone else then picks him before us, there's still many good plays left at 13 and still have the extra pick, so would prefer rolling the dice i n this direction.

[Logic]

Your post is well thought out and makes logical sense.

I can't help but wonder if you're in the right church, but the wrong pew. In other words, I wonder if McBeane are thinking along the exact same lines as you, but they plan to select a different tight end in, say, round 2 or 3. Perhaps they like an Irv Smith or a Dawson Knox or a Kahale Warring.

I think a lot of it will come down to whether or not Ed Oliver is on the board at 9. If he is, I think he's the slam dunk pick. If he's NOT, I could absolutely see Buffalo trading back or even just standing pat and taking their tight end of choice.

The key to this whole draft, to me, is Beane's recent comment that "if a position is particularly deep in a draft, it allows you to wait a round or two on your need". That statement could apply to the defensive line OR tight end in this year's draft, as both positions are unusually deep. Do they take a defensive lineman early, knowing that they can still get a talented tight end in round 2 or 3? Or do they take one of the "big three" (Hock, Fant, Smith), knowing that they can still get quality lineman into the 3rd and 4th rounds.

The last thing I'll say is this: if they select Hockenson, I'll be thrilled. Aside from Oliver, Hock is the one player likely to be available at 9 that I think will be an All Pro level talent for the next decade. This early in a rebuild, that's what the Bills should be after with their top 10 pick: an All Pro level talent. I think Hockenson would be an excellent choice.
 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Youre starting to sway me Ill admit.

After years of Gronk eating us alive I would love to have the next Gronk here.

 

Still think its Ed Oliver tho if available. And a trade up for Noah F or Nkeal Harry in later 1st round. 

[Buffalo03]

Except he hasn't been said to be coming in on a pre draft visit and no word from anyone on the Bills meeting with him at the combine or holding private workouts with him. I think it could be because they know they aren't taking a TE that high so they are focusing on other potential top 10 to top 15 prospects. They could also be trying to throw everyone off and make everyone think they aren't going that way and then take him at the draft. I just don't see it however

[NewEra]

While I wouldn’t be upset about it, I think the Jags will take him at 7.

 

 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

I hate the idea of drafting a tight end in the first round.  Excluding the all time greats - Gronk, Tony G, etc -  a really good NFL tight end is not worth a first round pick. 

 

Think about it. Lets assume you draft a really good tight end, by NFL standards.  That TE is the equivalent of the worst blocker on the line and maybe the third best WR on the team.  A really good TE is good for like 600+ yards. Zay got that many yards, and he is only a WR2, but still the board wants to see him cut.  

 

Why use a first round pick for that kind of production. 

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Will there be a learning curve for a rookie TE?   Of course, but I think McBeane sees the 2019 season as a stepping stone for 2020 (I still think we will be much improved and make the playoffs in 2019).   2019 will be the season that Hockenson learns the pro game, gels with the O-line, and develops a rapport with Allen.  I believe the plan is for this team to be good enough to contend for a Super Bowl in 2020 if Allen continues to develop.  I think Allen having a weapon like T.J. Hockenson around him is more impactful to this team taking that next step than adding another great defensive player this year.

 

 

 

Point A -- the Bills won six games last season, most of their games were snoozefests except maybe when Allen was in, and half of their losses were by 20 or more points.  It's not going to take much to be "much improved" without winning enough games to even sniff the playoffs.

 

Point B -- if the Bills fail to "contend for a Super Bowl in 2020" I'm sure you'll simply see 2020 as another "stepping stone".

 

Point C --I don't care if Hockensen is the best TE in the draft because that may mean nothing -- like Manuel being the best QB in the 2013 draft.  I want the Bills to draft the BPA who's on the board at #9.   The only positions they shouldn't consider at #9 are QB, kicker, and punter.  They could use upgrades everywhere else, including at MLB so they could move Edmunds to the outside which may be a better fit for his skill set.

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, KRT88 said:

How many OL are we lining up every game? 

 

Most of the FA OLers the Bills signed would be depth on good NFL offensive teams, so there's plenty of room to upgrade through the draft.

[JaCrispy]

6 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Most of the FA OLers the Bills signed would be depth on good NFL offensive teams, so there's plenty of room to upgrade through the draft.

Yup, I still is taking OL in one of the top 2 rounds

Edited April 6, 2019 by JaCrispy

[NoSaint]

I refuse to buy the tight ends are as valuable as receivers and offenses are being built around them narrative. 

 

John brown would be a top 5 paid tight end based on his salary. Is anyone talking about building an offense around him?

 

Guys like Kelce are most effective when you have other weapons pulling the premiere coverage guys off them and they get stuck matches up against a LB. that isn’t building your offense around someone, that’s having an elite role player. 

[YodaMan79]

A TE at pick #9 would be steep price to pay.  I think you can find really good TEs after the 1st round, or earliest in the 20s.  In the past 10 years only one TE has been picked lower than 19th (OJ Howard), Eric Ebron at 10 in 2014.  The sweet spot to getting a really good TE is between picks 25-100.  History would point to this being a really poor decision/value, and bring back memories of Donte Whitner.  Hopefully this would be a former Bills FO type of move, and they don't prove to be this stupid.

 

For those who want to think a little:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=TE&type=position

Edited April 6, 2019 by YodaMan79

[TPS]

@Inigo Montoya I certainly like him and would be happy with the pick, but...

if you’re McBean and you believe this is the last top 10 pick you’ll have over the next 5-7 years, would you rather draft an all pro at DL or at TE with this pick? 

I think the answer is DL. 

[Bangarang]

Solid player but I want more than solid with a top 10 pick. 

[papazoid]

TE is the weakest starting position on team.

 

Hockenson will be a perennial pro bowler.

 

a DL at #9 will be the 5th DL chosen

[YodaMan79]

10 minutes ago, papazoid said:

TE is the weakest starting position on team.

 

Hockenson will be a perennial pro bowler.

 

a DL at #9 will be the 5th DL chosen

 

So he's worth being picked as the highest TE over the past 12 + years?

Edited April 6, 2019 by YodaMan79

[Helpmenow]

I can see the patriots moving down and taking a TE.

[Solomon Grundy]

To counter Montoya points

1) Antonio was to bring speed to the outside to keep safeties from playing in the box.

2) Metcalf size is comparable, but faster

3) Cole is gonna be Mr. chain mover

[Dr. Who]

So Tier, so bitter.

 

Personally, I don't pass on Ed Oliver if he is available at nine. If Devin White falls, I'd take him as well.

 

Inigo is a good poster and puts thought into his efforts, but if you go offense at nine, take a shot on Metcalf.

 

[Bangarang]

34 minutes ago, papazoid said:

TE is the weakest starting position on team.

 

Hockenson will be a perennial pro bowler.

 

a DL at #9 will be the 5th DL chosen

 

Top 10 pick on a TE is silly.

 

Not wanting a DL at 9 because he would be the 4th or 5th off the board is dumb. The DL class this year is ridiculous. 

Edited April 6, 2019 by Bangarang

[WideNine]

 

We have covered this a lot, but why not it is the off-season and the swordmen are missing the playoffs ....again.

 

I don't get the Hock dissing. I can understand folks thinking he is a reach at 9, or he is not "your guy", but "bust" is a bit too much. He will be solid, and maybe even grow to be dominant at the position. Do I think he should go in the top 10,  is what it is. He will go where a team wants to take him and that will be his draft position worth.

 

Anyone that follows the Iowa program knows they can coach up the TE position better than many schools. That is why when the Bills are taking a look at the Ol' Miss prospect they are going to have to factor in more time to coach that kid up - if he has the aptitude.

 

Knox has very good measurables, but when you watch the tape often looks lost, the blocking needs a lot of work, and was an under-utilized feature of their offense. Same for many of the other prospects in this deep class where they may have high ceilings, but you do not see that reflected in their college production.

 

Fant to me is a flex option TE who has the athletism to create a lot of mismatches on the field, just don't expect any blocking from him. If he was willing to do that at Iowa he would not have lost reps to Hockenson. We have that (sort of) with Croom, I don't see them adding another, but who knows.

 

Not sure how good the Bills staff is at developing TEs, Rob Boras has a good looking resume...need to see it produce on the field.

 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by WideNine

[Peace Frog]

A tight end picked at the 9th spot?  Why, that's inconceivable!