Why I think T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa, will be the #9 pick

[XABI64]

he's my pick

 

best TE prospect to come out since Gronk. He pretty much has everything. would be a massive weapon on our offense. ppl in this thread saying the TE position isn't worth drafting so high...you must not be watching much football in the last 5-8 years. 

 

TE position has become more important than RB. 

Edited April 8, 2019 by XABI64

[Rico]

2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I can play this game all day long. Would Gronk, Kelsie or even Kittle be worthy of the mighty 9th pick? Would an opportunity to land possibly the best TE in Bills history be worthy of the coveted 9th pick?  Hey I'm all for taking Oliver before TJ,  but if it came down to Gary, Wilkins or Hockenson,  I'm running to the podium for the Iowa kid.

You either trade up earlier for someone a lot better or you trade down by hook or by crook before you burn the #9 pick on friggin’ Hock. God-awful value for a top-10 pick otherwise. 

[Inigo Montoya]

50 minutes ago, Rico said:

You either trade up earlier for someone a lot better or you trade down by hook or by crook before you burn the #9 pick on friggin’ Hock. God-awful value for a top-10 pick otherwise. 

 

I disagree. Completely.  Someone who brings WR1 offensive production and is an elite blocker bolstering the O-line and helping in the running game sounds like a value pick to me.  He is a consensus top 10 pick in this draft.  Is there some reason that you believe the consensus is wrong about him? 

 

This may all be moot anyways because there is a strong chance his is already gone by pick 9.

[Nihilarian]

While I like the pick the kid has not been one of the 30 players to visit the Buffalo Bills pre-draft

On 4/6/2019 at 11:00 AM, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

I hate the idea of drafting a tight end in the first round.  Excluding the all time greats - Gronk, Tony G, etc -  a really good NFL tight end is not worth a first round pick. 

 

Think about it. Lets assume you draft a really good tight end, by NFL standards.  That TE is the equivalent of the worst blocker on the line and maybe the third best WR on the team.  A really good TE is good for like 600+ yards. Zay got that many yards, and he is only a WR2, but still the board wants to see him cut.  

 

Why use a first round pick for that kind of production. 

 

George Kittle, 49er TE had 88 receptions for 1337 yards and was the 8th best receiver last year. 

 

Travis Kelcie, KC TE had 103 receptions for 1336 yards 10 TDs and was the 10th best receiver last year. 

 

Zack Ertz, Philly TE had 116 receptions for 1163 yards, 8 TDs and was the 16th best receiver last year.  

 

Honorable mention to Jered Cook , Eric Ebron. 

 

In 2017 Gronkowski was one of the best run blockers while also was the 10th best receiver in the league and a game changer for the Patriots his entire career!  Also was 12th best in 2015.  Having a TE like one of these men can be a game changer for the team and with that size, it makes it very difficult for a linebacker to keep pace or a DB to make a tackle. 

 

A good tight end is a QB's best friend as a downfield outlet and can be a great asset in blocking for the run or pass. Hockenson can do both very well as he pancakes in blocking and is a good deep threat. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

12 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

While I like the pick the kid has not been one of the 30 players to visit the Buffalo Bills pre-draft

 

George Kittle, 49er TE had 88 receptions for 1337 yards and was the 8th best receiver last year. 

 

Travis Kelcie, KC TE had 103 receptions for 1336 yards 10 TDs and was the 10th best receiver last year. 

 

Zack Ertz, Philly TE had 116 receptions for 1163 yards, 8 TDs and was the 16th best receiver last year.  

 

Honorable mention to Jered Cook , Eric Ebron. 

 

In 2017 Gronkowski was one of the best run blockers while also was the 10th best receiver in the league and a game changer for the Patriots his entire career!  Also was 12th best in 2015.  Having a TE like one of these men can be a game changer for the team and with that size, it makes it very difficult for a linebacker to keep pace or a DB to make a tackle. 

 

A good tight end is a QB's best friend as a downfield outlet and can be a great asset in blocking for the run or pass. Hockenson can do both very well as he pancakes in blocking and is a good deep threat. 

 

That is all true, but TE has the highest bust potential of any position on the field, save for maybe quarterback, and even then I'm not so sure.  99% of TEs drafted are not Gronk, Kelce, Little--even only 10% get to that +600 mark.  Considering how low the likelihood is that you are getting a good TE, the benefit of an awesome TE does not outweigh the risk.  

[WideNine]

On 4/8/2019 at 5:07 PM, Rico said:

You either trade up earlier for someone a lot better or you trade down by hook or by crook before you burn the #9 pick on friggin’ Hock. God-awful value for a top-10 pick otherwise. 

 

Do you see a sure-fire value at 9 elsewhere? I am not so sure, and I would like us to land a stud edge or tackle.

 

I don't get caught up in where you take certain players if you really like what they can bring...other than punters:)

 

I just don't see us landing any of the defensive blue chippers unless we trade up a few spots, or there is an unlikely run on marginal QBs.

 

I like this defensive class, but feel there are 5-6 top prospects then a lot of maybe guys with high ceilings. You can toss in one or two dbs that could make the top 10 cut too, but not a strong need for this team.

 

If the blue-chippers are gone by our pick then turning to offensive players who can step in and help the team is not that much of a reach.

 

A trade up or down to better align BPA would be preferable. Seems folks are less concerned with taking Hock 4-5 picks later than at 9...seems more like a mental barrier than sound logic.

 

 

 

Edited April 10, 2019 by WideNine

[Nihilarian]

4 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

That is all true, but TE has the highest bust potential of any position on the field, save for maybe quarterback, and even then I'm not so sure.  99% of TEs drafted are not Gronk, Kelce, Little--even only 10% get to that +600 mark.  Considering how low the likelihood is that you are getting a good TE, the benefit of an awesome TE does not outweigh the risk.  

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

Eric Ebron was a 1st round pick

Gronk, Ertz were 2nd rounders

Kelce, cook were 3rd rounders

Kittle was a 5th rounder From Iowa

 

Anyway, if you look at the CBS mock drafts you see Hock going at #7 to #19 and most have him going at #12 to GB. The kid is the complete package at TE and blocks like Gronk. He dropped one pass out of 51 and was the first sophomore to win the John Mackey award as the nation's top TE. He also won the big ten TE of the year award. Buffalo has never had a TE this good

 

Interesting article, https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/t-j-hockenson-the-better-iowa-te-prospect

Edited April 9, 2019 by Nihilarian

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

5 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

What do the percentages mean?  That 67% of TEs drafted in the first round go on to start?  For how long do they start? I don't quite follow this. 

[Nihilarian]

15 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

What do the percentages mean?  That 67% of TEs drafted in the first round go on to start?  For how long do they start? I don't quite follow this. 

I posted the chart to see if it would actually stay as I saw it as a chart. Then added more to it with a link explaining everything. you were a bit fast on the uptake 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

2 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

I posted the chart to see if it would actually stay as I saw it as a chart. Then added more to it with a link explaining everything. you were a bit fast on the uptake 

 

Ah.  Good article.  However, I think the disconnect here is the difference between starters and stars.  Lots of TEs start, but they just don't produce much.  There are a handful of "good" TEs in the league that really produce, and then a massive drop off.  I guess terms like "bust" are tough, because its so subjective.  I consider Ebron a bust.  I know he had a great year, but before that he was not worthy of a 1st round pick.  He was a starter, but definitely a wasted pick.  Thats what happens with TEs drafted too high, usually.  They go on to start, but they rarely live up to their first round bid. 

[Nihilarian]

2 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Ah.  Good article.  However, I think the disconnect here is the difference between starters and stars.  Lots of TEs start, but they just don't produce much.  There are a handful of "good" TEs in the league that really produce, and then a massive drop off.  I guess terms like "bust" are tough, because its so subjective.  I consider Ebron a bust.  I know he had a great year, but before that he was not worthy of a 1st round pick.  He was a starter, but definitely a wasted pick.  Thats what happens with TEs drafted too high, usually.  They go on to start, but they rarely live up to their first round bid. 

I had considered Ebron a bust too at Detroit and last season paired up with Andrew Luck he had 66 receptions for 750 yards, 13 TDs. I'll not forget that Doug Whaley had stated if the trade up for Sammy Watkins had fallen through he would have drafted Ebron at #9.  The wrong system in Detroit? 

 

Anyway, TJ Hockenson looks to be on a much higher level as some mocks have him going as high as 6th overall. Bucky Brooks calls his a gold jacket prospect and a top 15 player much like ex Cowboys TE Jason Witten. 

 

https://www.rotoworld.com/college-football/nfl-draft/player/39502/tj-hockenson

 

Dunno about you, but I would love to see a Gronk type TE in Buffalo. A receiver that creates a mismatch that few teams can adapt to stop. 

 

Bust factor? In NFL mocks I see him going at #10 to Denver, #12 to Green Bay and #19 to Minnesota. Oddly enough that guy who said #19 to Minn also had the Bills selecting TE Noah Fant at #9, Charles Davis. (Fant was Hocks teammate at Iowa)

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2019/mock-drafts

 

 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

17 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

I had considered Ebron a bust too at Detroit and last season paired up with Andrew Luck he had 66 receptions for 750 yards, 13 TDs. I'll not forget that Doug Whaley had stated if the trade up for Sammy Watkins had fallen through he would have drafted Ebron at #9.  The wrong system in Detroit? 

 

Anyway, TJ Hockenson looks to be on a much higher level as some mocks have him going as high as 6th overall. Bucky Brooks calls his a gold jacket prospect and a top 15 player much like ex Cowboys TE Jason Witten. 

 

https://www.rotoworld.com/college-football/nfl-draft/player/39502/tj-hockenson

 

Dunno about you, but I would love to see a Gronk type TE in Buffalo. A receiver that creates a mismatch that few teams can adapt to stop. 

 

Bust factor? In NFL mocks I see him going at #10 to Denver, #12 to Green Bay and #19 to Minnesota. Oddly enough that guy who said #19 to Minn also had the Bills selecting TE Noah Fant at #9, Charles Davis. (Fant was Hocks teammate at Iowa)

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2019/mock-drafts

 

 

Dude, I would be alllll about a TE, but I don't want to use our first round pick for 750 yards (the 13 tds is nice, though).  

 

What really spooks me is Ebron.  Before Hockenson, Ebron was the next sure fire, cant miss TE.  Then he wasn't.  The media gets hyped for the draft, the NFL promotes it, and we fall for it.  Every year so many guys are touted as the next big thing, but they rarely are.  Only a handful of guys end up being stars, and the rest are just solid contributors or less.  I'd bet you just about anything that Hockenson is destined to be the next highly touted TE that ends up being just another guy. 

[Nihilarian]

45 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Dude, I would be alllll about a TE, but I don't want to use our first round pick for 750 yards (the 13 tds is nice, though).  

 

What really spooks me is Ebron.  Before Hockenson, Ebron was the next sure fire, cant miss TE.  Then he wasn't.  The media gets hyped for the draft, the NFL promotes it, and we fall for it.  Every year so many guys are touted as the next big thing, but they rarely are.  Only a handful of guys end up being stars, and the rest are just solid contributors or less.  I'd bet you just about anything that Hockenson is destined to be the next highly touted TE that ends up being just another guy. 

I dunno, Ebron was never on my radar in 2014. The Bills even brought in Odell Beckham Jr for a look before the draft and I think they didn't look at him hard enough because he was injured at the time. Anyway, my thoughts on trading up for a WR were Mike Evans at 6'5'' 230Lbs and not on a kid who gained most of his yards in screenplays. I also liked the OG Zack Martin the Cowboys took at #16 in a trade back. 

 

I know most Bills fans don't think a TE or OG is worthy of a first-round pick. However, I do if the guy is another Jason Witten type.

 

The thing is, in my view is that Josh Allen doesn't like to check down to the RB in the flat and is always looking for that receiver open downfield. While Robert Foster and John Brown will be going deep with the fade/go/clear-out and Cole Beasley will be in the slot going for the underneath stuff. The Bills could really use a tight end like Gronk who can be a dual threat to block well for the run game or peel off for a mid-range pass.

 

Or the Bills could trade back and pick up his teammate TE in Noah Fant who is not the blocker that Hock is but runs a 4.5 40. Either way, the Bills have never had a pass catching TE like either of these two and Josh Allen needs a go-to TE. 

 

The Patriots had Gronk. The Eagles have Ertz. The Chiefs have Kelce, had Tony Gonzalaz. The Saints had Jimmy Graham. Carolina has Greg Olsen. Dallas had Jason Witten. The Bengals have Tyler Eifert. The Redskins have Jordan Reed. The Vikings have Lyle Rudolph. The 49ers had Vernon Davis. The Broncos had Julius Thomas. The NY Giants have Evan Engram. 

 

The closest the Buffalo Bills have come to having a top TE recently was Charles Clay whos best year was back in 2013 with 68 rec for 759 yards, 6 TDs. Buffalo bought into what they thought was an on the verge TE and it never happened. 

 

Just sayin, I wouldn't be adverse to a TE at #9. 

[Chicken Boo]

I promise you Hockensen isn't going inside the top 10.

[LSHMEAB]

43 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

I promise you Hockensen isn't going inside the top 10.

It would be such a poor allocation of resources. The chances that he becomes Kelce/Ertz/or Gronk are less than 50/50. The position is more of a luxury than a need. He is not seen as a transcendent player. Why would a team want to use a top 10 pick on a TE who MAY be ALMOST as good as guys that were taken in the 2nd/3rd round?

 

Kittle was a 5th rounder! 

 

Hock will be drafted closer to 20 than 10 IMO.

Edited April 9, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[TBBills Fan]

On 4/7/2019 at 10:54 AM, Mat68 said:

I think Fant goes before Hockinson.  He is the more natural route runner, the better redzone threat, and the kind of dynamic athlete that is drafted high. 

 

 

I think Charles Davis mocked Fant to us with hock on the board

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

It would be such a poor allocation of resources. The chances that he becomes Kelce/Ertz/or Gronk are less than 50/50. The position is more of a luxury than a need. He is not seen as a transcendent player. Why would a team want to use a top 10 pick on a TE who MAY be ALMOST as good as guys that were taken in the 2nd/3rd round?

 

Kittle was a 5th rounder! 

 

Hock will be drafted closer to 20 than 10 IMO.

I agree with this. I'd love to get Oliver at nine and trade up to grab Hockenson if he falls far enough in the first. I'm not passing on elite DL for very good TE though.

[YodaMan79]

3 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

It would be such a poor allocation of resources. The chances that he becomes Kelce/Ertz/or Gronk are less than 50/50. The position is more of a luxury than a need. He is not seen as a transcendent player. Why would a team want to use a top 10 pick on a TE who MAY be ALMOST as good as guys that were taken in the 2nd/3rd round?

 

Kittle was a 5th rounder! 

 

Hock will be drafted closer to 20 than 10 IMO.

 

You get it.  I've been banging this drum the whole thread.  Like a d!ck, got so frustrated I lashed out in a couple of posts.  I think we have a fan base like others have stated; buy all the hype and BS the NFL sells us on these potential busts, chumps and jackoffs.  We just have to hit the lotto on a couple of these players, that's all the draft is.  Every year we have to hear from the talking heads how some guy is the next big thing.  How often do these predictions come to fruition?

 

[LSHMEAB]

For the record, I don't believe Hockenson will bust, although it's possible. It's all about the value, the ceiling, and the position at #9 overall.

[WideNine]

2 hours ago, YodaMan79 said:

 

You get it.  I've been banging this drum the whole thread.  Like a d!ck, got so frustrated I lashed out in a couple of posts.  I think we have a fan base like others have stated; buy all the hype and BS the NFL sells us on these potential busts, chumps and jackoffs.  We just have to hit the lotto on a couple of these players, that's all the draft is.  Every year we have to hear from the talking heads how some guy is the next big thing.  How often do these predictions come to fruition?

 

 

The circular logic is kind of funny

 

Why not a TE in the first? Because no one takes TEs in the 1st, or of the 6 or so TEs taken in the 1st only a handful were great.

 

So out of all those defensive line players taken each year in the 1st they all pan out? Statistically, I would have to lean towards more of those defensive players being rather pedestrian and not turning out to be Aaron Donald II. Some of the Bills best defenders were later round picks (although they have an eye for good DBs and have taken their share early). Too early to tell with Edmunds, but he could become a force too.

 

I really would like a generational talent, but at 9 this year I think it going to be a crap shoot regardless of what direction they go offense or defense. I am not advocating taking a TE at 9, I just wouldn't find it alarming if they did.

 

Oliver at 9 that's my pick, but I have some doubts. Why was he was neutralized against some sub-par offensive lines is he a generational talent, was he hampered by scheme or injury, lack of talent around him, does he have a higher ceiling or did he peak a year ago?

 

I still want us to nab a TE, but the class is deep enough that we may be able to land a good one a bit later who will need more coaching up than the IA prospects, but it's a trade off I could understand. Successful offenses have solid to above average TEs, the position is even more prominent with college and NFL teams using more spread formations with the TE as a flex option.

 

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2018/12/7/18129492/2018-flex-te-liljordan-humphrey-oklahoma-grant-calcaterra-spread-iso-basketball-on-grass

 

Regardless of what our TBD braintrust thinks about the value of the position, there are 2 to 3 TEs in this draft that will go in the 1st that teams are going to feel are BPA, whether the Bills take one or not.

 

Perhaps that argument of whether or not TEs should be taken in the 1st is moot.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 10, 2019 by WideNine

[Mat68]

I will get behind any weapon brought in for the offense on day 1 or 2 of the draft.  Who is available at 9 is the question.  Oliver, Gary, Sweat, White could all be an option.  They could all be gone too.  Hockenson looks like a solid TE.  Do you draft solid at 9?  

[Paulus]

On 4/6/2019 at 5:21 AM, KRT88 said:

Wow, plenty of arguments made for one player. 

 

Id have no issues with the pick but it is a deep draft for TE.

And, Beane is smart, which is why a TE will not be taken that high. 

[GimmeSomeProcess]

6 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

Eric Ebron was a 1st round pick

Gronk, Ertz were 2nd rounders

Kelce, cook were 3rd rounders

Kittle was a 5th rounder From Iowa

 

Anyway, if you look at the CBS mock drafts you see Hock going at #7 to #19 and most have him going at #12 to GB. The kid is the complete package at TE and blocks like Gronk. He dropped one pass out of 51 and was the first sophomore to win the John Mackey award as the nation's top TE. He also won the big ten TE of the year award. Buffalo has never had a TE this good

 

Interesting article, https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/t-j-hockenson-the-better-iowa-te-prospect

Awesome stuff, I still think rd 2 is where we need to go at tightend but great read 

5 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Dude, I would be alllll about a TE, but I don't want to use our first round pick for 750 yards (the 13 tds is nice, though).  

 

What really spooks me is Ebron.  Before Hockenson, Ebron was the next sure fire, cant miss TE.  Then he wasn't.  The media gets hyped for the draft, the NFL promotes it, and we fall for it.  Every year so many guys are touted as the next big thing, but they rarely are.  Only a handful of guys end up being stars, and the rest are just solid contributors or less.  I'd bet you just about anything that Hockenson is destined to be the next highly touted TE that ends up being just another guy. 

The only thing about this is that Ebron had drop concerns coming out of college. The combine shot him into the top 10. Those drops carried over, nor was he regarded really as a blocker. Fant and Hock both don’t share these concerns

[Nihilarian]

The thing of the percentage of first round hits and misses is because some people develop earlier in life than others and in college, sometimes it's like a man against boys!  Almost all these young men are still developing and will gain weight, muscle and change usually for the better. Some are currently closer to their potential than others. 

 

Anyway, If you look at the catch percentage of last years Buffalo Bills players,

 

Zay Jones, 56 rec 652 yards and a 54.9 catch %

LeSean McCoy, 34 rec 234 yards and a 73.9 catch %

Robert Foster, 27 rec 541 yards and a 61.4 catch %

Kelvin Benjamin, 23 rec 354 yards and a 37.1 catch %

Jason Croom, 22 rec 259 yards and a 62.9 catch %

Charles Clay, 21 rec 184 yards and a 58.3 catch %

 

Cole Beasley, 65 rec 672 yards and a 74.7 catch %

John Brown, 42 rec 715 yards and a 43.3 catch % Things changed for Brown when Flacco stopped playing and Lamar Jackson took over. 

 

I listed those because Noah Fant has a 14% career drop percentage vs TJ Hockenson who dropped one pass out of 51 passes last season at Iowa. 

 

Chris Trapasso calls Hockenson a destroyer of worlds, https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2019-nfl-draft-iowas-t-j-hockenson-is-destroyer-of-worlds-as-a-blocker-dynamic-pass-catcher/

 

I would really, really hate to see the Patriots trade up to draft either Hockenson or Fant and they have one first, two seconds and three thirds. 

 

 

[Juice_32]

I just can’t see the value with him at 9. Give me the best DL/Edge guy in the first. A fast WR in the second and BPA after that. Scoop up Oliver at TE in the 4th or 5th.

[Cripple Creek]

I've come around on this player.  It will be too fun if he gets a case of the dropsies because we'll have 24 TJ Handsofstone threads.  I want to see that.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

On 4/6/2019 at 8:41 AM, NewEraBills said:

If this is about Josh Allen, which it is, then I I don't like the argument for Hockenson.  If Allen's best passes are to the perimeter, which if we study the tape, this is exactly the case, then I'm getting my guy someone that accentuate his strengths.  My argument has nothing to do with Hockenson as a prospect but more about Allen.  I wouldn't take at TE in the first if my QB's best throws are to the perimeter.  Secondly, Beasley, as the slot guy (something that Cam did not have a great presence here), can serve in the Greg Olsen role working the middle.

I get your point, but what if JA never had great options to go with the TE bread/butter routes in 2018 because of who he was forced to play with at that position? I would be open to seeing how a better talent there would also allow Allen to make those different throws with a higher trust level/completion %, and thereby making Allen’s overall skillset more well rounded. 

[NewEraBills]

43 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

I get your point, but what if JA never had great options to go with the TE bread/butter routes in 2018 because of who he was forced to play with at that position? I would be open to seeing how a better talent there would also allow Allen to make those different throws with a higher trust level/completion %, and thereby making Allen’s overall skillset more well rounded. 

 

I think even when you look at his college tape, Allen's best throws are on the perimeter and the deep post from the perimeter.  This is not to say that he didn't throw to the TE at Wyoming, but in 2016 Gentry and Maulhardt were his leading receivers.  Gentry by A LOT.  His last season at Wyoming his leading guys were Austin Conway and CJ Johnson, nobody else was even close.  His rookie season I think Daboll tried to cater to this by featuring a great deal of go routes, deep digs and deep crossers.  All of these ran by WR's.  So to me, if that's my guy at QB and I'm trying to play to his strengths, I'm not taking a TE in the first round.  The passing game seems to be perimeter focused, ie, outside/IN  unlike NE who attacks inside out but predominantly inside.  If my passing attack is Inside/Out focused then I'd take Hock immediately.

Edited April 10, 2019 by NewEraBills

[WideNine]

12 hours ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

Awesome stuff, I still think rd 2 is where we need to go at tightend but great read 

The only thing about this is that Ebron had drop concerns coming out of college. The combine shot him into the top 10. Those drops carried over, nor was he regarded really as a blocker. Fant and Hock both don’t share these concerns

 

Fant actually reminds me a bit of Ebron coming out.

 

Has dominant to freakish physical talent, but did have concentration lapses and more drops than Hockenson.

 

It was that, the routes, and the less effective blocking that had me rating him a bit lower than Hockenson.

 

Like Ebron he will have dominating plays and then some head-scratchers. Bills fans will quickly sour on a guy who blows past everyone and proceeds to drop the ball, or if Josh gets decapitated and replays show Fant whiffing on a block.

 

He is still really good and his ceiling is higher, but it may take a few seasons to see the consistency match the physical talent.

 

Of course if NE picks him up he will dominate us all over the field right out of the gate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Rico]

3 hours ago, Cripple Creek said:

I've come around on this player.  It will be too fun if he gets a case of the dropsies because we'll have 24 TJ Handsofstone threads.  I want to see that.

No doubt the on-line lives of the high motor lunch pail fans in here will be miserable if we take him at 9 & he sucks.

[GETTOTHE50]

TJ would have caught that TD in the final seconds against Miami.

 

Plz draft him.

[WideNine]

Just now, Rico said:

No doubt the on-line lives of the high motor lunch pail fans in here will be miserable if we take him at 9 & he sucks.

 

I guess one could always hope that our pick at 9 sucks if that's your thing.

 

If they go with someone not on my radar, my hope is they did their homework and we get the best value.

 

I also hope NE does not land any top tier TEs, because apparently they do know how to use them.

 

 

 

 

[DJB]

Hockenson has been my boy from day 1.  He will have such a positive effect on the offence like none other! Pass catching,  pass and run blocking! 

 

With all our speed guys going deep having him underneath eill be incredible for Allen.

 

 

Daniel Jeremiah says at this point he feels its Hockenson or Jonah at 9 

[Dr. Who]

Just now, DJB said:

Hockenson has been my boy from day 1.  He will have such a positive effect on the offence like none other! Pass catching,  pass and run blocking! 

 

With all our speed guys going deep having him underneath eill be incredible for Allen.

 

 

Daniel Jeremiah says at this point he feels its Hockenson or Jonah at 9 

If that's the choice, I want Hock.

[DJB]

18 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Dude, I would be alllll about a TE, but I don't want to use our first round pick for 750 yards (the 13 tds is nice, though).  

 

What really spooks me is Ebron.  Before Hockenson, Ebron was the next sure fire, cant miss TE.  Then he wasn't.  The media gets hyped for the draft, the NFL promotes it, and we fall for it.  Every year so many guys are touted as the next big thing, but they rarely are.  Only a handful of guys end up being stars, and the rest are just solid contributors or less.  I'd bet you just about anything that Hockenson is destined to be the next highly touted TE that ends up being just another guy. 

 

Completely different TE. Hockenson is a traditional Y, Ebron most certainly is not. 

[Rico]

Just now, WideNine said:

 

I guess one could always hope that our pick at 9 sucks if that's your thing.

 

If they go with someone not on my radar, my hope is they did their homework and we get the best value.

 

I also hope NE does not land any top tier TEs, because apparently they do know how to use them.

 

 

 

 

Oh, I will trust the process no matter what for now, and I will always give every Bills player at least 1 year to succeed. You never saw me blasting Peterman. All I am saying is that there is some cheap entertainment to be had in the event he is JAG.

[WideNine]

7 minutes ago, Rico said:

Oh, I will trust the process no matter what for now, and I will always give every Bills player at least 1 year to succeed. You never saw me blasting Peterman. All I am saying is that there is some cheap entertainment to be had in the event he is JAG.

 

Fair enough.

 

I had zero faith the Bills would ever draft another good QB...was just done hoping after so many poor selections and missed prospects. Allen is a very pleasant surprise.

 

The plan out of camp to start Peterman behind that patchwork line after his showing the prior year behind a much better line seemed doomed to failure.

 

It was.

 

The silver lining was Allen got serious reps in and OBD realized that you have to invest in your o-line.

 

 

 

 

 

[Nihilarian]

 

 

 

 

2

3 hours ago, NewEraBills said:

 

I think even when you look at his college tape, Allen's best throws are on the perimeter and the deep post from the perimeter.  This is not to say that he didn't throw to the TE at Wyoming, but in 2016 Gentry and Maulhardt were his leading receivers.  Gentry by A LOT.  His last season at Wyoming his leading guys were Austin Conway and CJ Johnson, nobody else was even close. 

 

His rookie season I think Daboll tried to cater to this by featuring a great deal of go routes, deep digs and deep crossers.  All of these ran by WR's.  So to me, if that's my guy at QB and I'm trying to play to his strengths, I'm not taking a TE in the first round.  The passing game seems to be perimeter focused, ie, outside/IN  unlike NE who attacks inside out but predominantly inside.  If my passing attack is Inside/Out focused then I'd take Hock immediately.

Not many others picked up on this and I think Brian Daboll should have been beaten with a tire iron for his offensive scheme. Not with that craptastic offensive line they fielded last year. It reminded me of 2000 Rams Mike Martz offense with a lot of deep passing that only worked when they had a top O line. Steve Fairchild brought that offense with him to Buffalo in 2006 and we Bills fans got to watch JP Losman get shell shocked out of the league... he probably still has trouble with PTSD. Trent Edwards suffered many concussions running that scheme too. 

 

In my view, that offense that Daboll called was about the very worst you could ask a rookie QB to run with all that deep passing and not all that much time to throw due to the turnstiles of an offensive line. To throw five, seven-step drops you need three to five seconds in the pocket and thus the reason for so much running by Allen. Not to mention all the drops by Jones and Benjamin. Jones 102 targets, 52 catches a 54.9 catch %. Benjamin 62 targets, 23 receptions a 37.1 catch %. Plus, not much of a ran game...except for the QB.

 

Daboll supposedly brought the Patriots playbook with him to Buffalo but like you mention he really didn't utilize it much. With the Patriots it's all about moving the chains, getting first downs and frustrating the defense because the ball is spread around so much they don't know what to expect. The Patriots also run the ball and utilize the tight end A LOT when Gronk is healthy. The Bills should be copying this scheme. 

 

If you look at the last game of the season against Miami the Bills spread the ball around to seven different receivers with Zay Jones catching the most 9 targets, 6 rec, 93 yards, 2 TDs. Foster was next with 5 targets, 4 rec, 21 yards, 1 TD. TE Jason Croom was next with 4 targets, 2 rec for 32 yards. Allen tried to find the TE as he was the third most targeted. 

 

The point here is that teams will start doubling the outside receivers to take away those deep threat wideouts. Shady and Cole Beasley will work their magic with the short, underneath stuff so that leaves the midrange which is where a really good tight end would really force the defense to defend the entire field.

 

All this is probably moot because McD will most likely draft a D lineman with that #9 pick. 

Edited April 10, 2019 by Nihilarian

[ndirish1978]

I think we went so heavy on the OL this offseason to give Josh a chance to succeed with some decent blocking knowing that we are going to be going after TE/DT/EDGE early. I see us taking OL, but not until maybe rd 3-4.

[njbuff]

My thought is right now Oliver won’t be there at 9 like they hope, so it may be Hockenson at 9 and trading back into the first round for Wilkins.

 

Ot just hope that Lawrence or Simmons are there in the second round.