How Much Did The Bills Actually Improve the OL? PFF Rankings 2018 vs. 2019 Comparison

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, NY Nole said:

PFF is the biggest sham - total click bait. Even more ridiculous is the fact NBC pastes it on their player intros as if it it some legit statistic. These “grades” have no basis — as it has been pointed out on more than one occasion — they have no idea what play was called and what assignment the player actually had on the play. It’s a total farce. I can’t wait till PFF starts doing mock drafts. I think the Bills got much better on OL.

 

NBC does it because Collinsworth is a part-owner of PFF.

[Heavy Kevi]

1 hour ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

Theres no narrative.  Just pointing out that if you take any stock in the PFF ratings, the moves didn’t do a it to improve the line on paper.

 

Without really looking at the differential in numbers... Objectively we went from 1 "above average" starter to now 3 "above average" starters.

 

Seems like a sizable difference to me. 

[PlayoffsPlease]

9 hours ago, klos63 said:

It's been proven that a player always performs exactly the same way he did in past, even with different teammates, coaches and situations.

I am not sure the point you are making.  Are you saying last years Bills linemen that will be better during the upcoming season if they change teams? 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Both Ike and if Teller were listed have statistics based on rookie play. They both have ample room to show improvement, will they who know.  Thought I saw earlier in the week stats that showed Long below average as a center, but above as a guard.  And the reason for the below average center ratings were partly due to bad snaps, which can be hard to do with a bad injured thumb.

 

Plus put three above average  guys out there, and all of a sudden those playing next to them look better too.

 

Adding in the nine listed plus Teller and that guy Sirius something leaves them with at least 11 lineman, teams usually go with 9 though  a couple may end up on practice squad.  I think they will still use a 2nd or 3rd rounder on a lineman too.

[Rico]

For instant hot-take analysis of a FA signing who I know nothing about, I like to go to his previous team’s message board.

 

If there are more than a few posters sad to see him go,

 

If posters are laughing at the Bills, 

[NewEra]

You should change your name to BillyNewThreads

[purple haze]

1 hour ago, The Bills Blog said:

So in other words, if our line looks like this:

 

Dawkins
Teller
Morse
Long
Nsehke

 

We will have three above average, one average (suspect will improve in second year), and one below average but only due to the fact that he played hurt last year (likely above average otherwise). Looks good to me.

To see Redskins' message boards tell it, Nsehke excels at LT, but is fairly bad at RT.   Perhaps we see Dawkins move to RT at some point.  Or Nsehke is swing tackle and Waddle starts.  Or a rookie is drafted and starts.  I think it's too early to predict anyone into spots on the O-line outside of Morse.   Competition for starters should be ??? though.

[formerlyofCtown]

1 hour ago, billsredneck1 said:

spencer long played hurt and out of position.  feliciano had a small amount of playing time. teller's not on the list.  depth guys should not be part of the equation.

nsehke is way above mills.  bobbie johnson is familiar with (3?) of these guys?....and we still have the draft....and lastly, we played with 4 different qbs,

 

as far as i'm concerned no comparisons can be made with the 2018 line.  it's history.  we will have at least a top 15 line this year. this staff will get them to play out of their minds.

We dont know if its gonna be a whole lot better all we knows is that last years guys didnt work so we got different guys.  Hell it could end up being worse (If thats possible) but they did a good job of aquiring what was available.

[GreggTX]

Excellent post! Let's also look at the "OVRL" Madden ratings.

 

Morse 82

Bodine 72

Nsekhe 76

Mills 71

Dawkins 78

Teller 75

Miller 74

Long 73

Ducasse 71

Waddle 70

 

The rest are all below 70 and Boettger is below 60. So, we have a sizeable improvement at C. A smaller improvement at RT and the rest of the FA's is a bunch of guys fighting for a backup job when camp starts. Long was a 78 in 2017 and injured his hand, so we'll see how that works out. Throw in a day 2 and a day 3 OL to compete and this is an OK OL, but nothing special. 3 upgrades would give Shady another 1,000 season and that could help Josh Allen a lot. The one to watch is Long. When he left the Redskins, he was a OVRL 91.

 

My guess is that Nsekhe starts in 2019 and we draft an OL on day 2 and 3. We'll see.

 

As far as receivers go, Jones is a 79. Beasley is 83, but he's 86 if I put him in as a slot receiver. Brown is 80 with 95 speed. Foster 73 with 93 speed. Kroft 77 and Croom 74. K Benjaman is 77, but started 2018 at 84 and Clay is 81.

Edited March 17, 2019 by GreggTX

[Buffalo Junction]

6 hours ago, Rebel101 said:

Ok but that was in 2016 for one year. He went to the Jets and struggled 

The question is, why did he struggle? Was he still recovering from his off-season knee surgery? Was it the injured finger? Failed communication between him and Darnold? Poor guard play next to him? Some combination of the issues listed? Long’s Performance standard is likely somewhere between his Jets and Redskins tape. However,  I’m going to assume that Beane knows more about this than we do. 

 

Still... Long is not a guaranteed starter. He could be beat out by a draft pick or vet. At the moment he’s probably going to replace Groy as our interior swing guy. He’s going to have to win a starting spot. 

 

Keep in mind that he was let go by Gase, the opposing HC during his worst game...

 

It’s also worth noting that PFF’s o-line ratings often deviate from reality by significant margins because their analysts don’t have intimate knowledge of schemes, assignments, and adjustments. I haven’t seen PFF say whether Long’s snapping woes factored into his rating. 

 

What we do know is that Long had a crap year with an underperforming team after playing significantly better on his first contract, he’s only played center for two years, and he was injured last year. How he does here is anyone’s guess, but he plugs a hole by being at least a depth guy that can fill in at three positions. 

45 minutes ago, purple haze said:

To see Redskins' message boards tell it, Nsehke excels at LT, but is fairly bad at RT.   Perhaps we see Dawkins move to RT at some point.  Or Nsehke is swing tackle and Waddle starts.  Or a rookie is drafted and starts.  I think it's too early to predict anyone into spots on the O-line outside of Morse.   Competition for starters should be ??? though.

I imagine that’s the plan. Full on competition at every spot except center. They’ll let Morse and J Allen get into a groove early, and fill all of the spots around that. We’ll likely add some rookies into the mix as well. This is going to be fun to watch. 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

11 hours ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

I'm not really too familiar with some of the new lineman that the Bills signed this past week, so I looked up their rankings in PFF.  Here's how the 2018 group compares to the current linemen for 2019.  If the PFF rankings mean anything to you - it appears that the Bills shuffled around the chairs on the deck of the Titanic.  Based on the numbers here, there's a marginal improvement at Right Tackle and Center.  Everyone else appear to be a substitution of average to below average depth players....

 

New signees like Waddle, Felciano, and Spencer long are ranked just as low 2018 underperforming class of Vlad and Ryan Groy.  Spencer Long was actually worse than Ryan Groy!!!

 

Many say that these PFF rankings are pure BS...let's hope they are right.

 

2018 Bills Offensive LIne

 

2019 Bills Offensive Line

 

 

Swap out the name colum and replace with things like Accounting 101, Econ and Symphonic literature and you're looking at a partial transcript of my collegiate experience.  I've been fabulously successful in spite of it, ergo by extrapolation the Bills will be as well. 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, WickedGame said:

Possibly the worst analysis I’ve ever seen on this site. You don’t judge the value of these players by adding up their combined PFF scores and comparing the totals against each other, or comparing our highest score from last year against our highest from this year, etc. I’m not even talking about the foolishness of a PFF metric as a measuring stick here...

 

At the very least, if you’re going to rely on this particular data set for your analysis, at least do an apples-to-apples comparison:

 

* Is Mitch Morse (69.5) better than Russell Bodine (61.6) and Ryan Groy (46.7) at Center? Yes, substantially. 

 

Is Ty Nsekhe (67.8) better than Jordan Mills (56) at Right Tackle? Yes, substantially. 

 

Is everyone we brought in a stud? No. Did we bring in a few players whose scores are lower than guys who walked away? Yes. But did we vastly improve two positions on the line? Yes.

 

And as far as the rest of the OL additions, I’m not concerned that they’re not (according to PFF metrics) a clear-cut improvement. These are depth players anyway, and given how bad our starters sucked last year, I’m at peace with upgrades at C and RT and shuffling the deck chairs at the backup positions. Heck, maybe you get lucky and one of those new deck chairs is a big upgrade over last years P.O.S. starter. 

 

But to say we’re not better at this point? Sheesh. 

 

EDIT: Let’s not overlook two other important facts: We dumped an OL coach who was accomplishing nothing, and we brought in players who may fit our OL scheme better than their prior teams’ schemes.

 

I personally think we draft Risner in round 2, but that’s just a guess. 

Thanks for this, and thanks to NyNole, too.  PFF is far, far from being the definitive word on anything.  People need to remember Kyle Williams being incredulous when he realized evaluations like PFF exist.  He asked how anyone except a coach who knew what the player's assignment was could possibly evaluate how he did on a play.  

 

And there's a much more important point, and that is that offensive line play is very much a team thing.  When a play succeeds, it's because the line succeeded as a UNIT.  Whether the Bills line has improved will depend on how the coaches are able to get the line to succeed as a UNIT.  

 

Having said that, going from no one who was good at center to someone who is among the best is a huge upgrade.  A guy who can read the defense and call assignments, as well as make all the blocks, will be a huge improvement alone.  Morse will make the guards better just by being there.  

[Doc]

I think the OL will be: Nsekhe-Long-Morse-Bodine-Dawkins.  And I think that will be a really good OL. 

[Bangarang]

3 minutes ago, Doc said:

I think the OL will be: Nsekhe-Long-Morse-Bodine-Dawkins.  And I think that will be a really good OL. 

 

Bodine might not even make the team. I doubt he’s starting at RG

Edited March 17, 2019 by Bangarang

[mrags]

3 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Bodine might not even make the team. I doubt he’s starting at RG

I was gonna say. Replace Bodine with Teller and you’ve got something there 

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Bangarang said:

Bodine might not even make the team. I doubt he’s starting at RG

The Bills will likely keep 9 OL.  If you take the other 4 starters I mentioned and add Feliciano, Waddle and Teller, I can't see 2 other OL being kept over him.

 

3 minutes ago, mrags said:

I was gonna say. Replace Bodine with Teller and you’ve got something there 

 

I went with Bodine because of his experience and how that would help Dawkins.  If Teller beats him out, so much the better.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

So line improved from average to above average? 

 

Whats not to like? 

[mrags]

8 minutes ago, Doc said:

The Bills will likely keep 9 OL.  If you take the other 4 starters I mentioned and add Feliciano, Waddle and Teller, I can't see 2 other OL being kept over him.

 

 

I went with Bodine because of his experience and how that would help Dawkins.  If Teller beats him out, so much the better.

Either way. I think this OL will be much improved from last year. It’s going to be a huge battle in camp with lots of guys moving around to see what the best lineup is going to be. Also tonget guys familiar with each position more for when someone goes down 

[klos63]

1 hour ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

I am not sure the point you are making.  Are you saying last years Bills linemen that will be better during the upcoming season if they change teams? 

often after signing a player, fans look to the previous years stats/performance and just assume they duplicate that season, that's not the case. My point is players perform differently in different situations. Look at Jerry Hughes with the Colts, Goodwin with SF, just to name 2 off the top of my head.

8 hours ago, unbillievable said:

Total 301.2

Dawkins 69.5

Ducasse 49.8

Bodine 61.6

Miller 64.3

Mills 56

 

Dawkins 69.5

Teller 56.1

Morse 69.5

Long 45.4

Nsekhe 67.8

Total308.3

 

The line is %2.3 better.  ☺️

 

No need to even play the games, right?

[Wagon Circler]

3 hours ago, aristocrat said:

I’m hoping Taylor is there at 9 so we can get an elite talent on our line. A guy that just dominates. 

You mean like Ed Oliver?

I'd be happy with either.

Edited March 17, 2019 by Wagon Circler

[HuSeYiN_NYC]

1st off, we all know Juan Castillo was straight sanitation. Secondly, they have Dawkins ranked as above average when us as fans and Dawkins HIMSELF knows he had a bad year so based on that information alone we need to throw away that list as fabrication.

 

Thirdly, we don't know where who will play at what position etc. The only position which is secure on paper is Mitch Morse. We have our Center for sure set in place. Let's see if we draft another lineman and then let's see come training camp when the competition begins who will solidify which position. I believe Morse and Nsekhe will make whoever is next to them better which is why I think Nsekhe playing RT is the smart move. 

 

All in all, you don't need to be a football guru to know that we got better... You can just feel it even in these forums. When was the last time that 90% of the fan base was happy with our Free agency acquisitions? I can't remember any season to be honest... The fans are excited for a good reason. We know the offense got better and we know that Beane and McDermott is willing to do whatever it takes to build a successful team which adds a little extra comfort. 

[Doc]

1 minute ago, mrags said:

Either way. I think this OL will be much improved from last year. It’s going to be a huge battle in camp with lots of guys moving around to see what the best lineup is going to be. Also tonget guys familiar with each position more for when someone goes down 

 

Actually I think the only competition will be at RG.  Morse is obviously the starting C.  I think they start Nsekhe at LT because he's excelled there and to send a message to Dawkins, but in any case he and Dawkins are your starting OT's.  Long played well at LG for the Redskins and is healthy so I see that being his spot to lose. 

[ColoradoBills]

Do we suck again?

[Logic]

Great post!

I expect Morse to be a clear upgrade and Nsekhe to be a moderate upgrade (not hard) over Mills.

Beyond that, it wouldn't SHOCK me if Spencer Long winds up being an upgrade over John Miller at guard, but it also wouldn't shock me if he winds up being a versatile backup.

I still see Teller and a drafted player winning the guard spots as the most likely outcome.

[CaptnCoke11]

7 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

Do we suck again?

I think so.. I might cancel my NFL ticket subscription now 

[buffaloboyinATL]

It depends. Are we playing games last season again or do we get to wait and see how they play NEXT season?

[Jpsredemption]

I think there is real reason to be skeptical. They brought in 1 name and several career backups. I’m not really sure where they immensely improved outside of center. 

And nothing they did at tackle should affect draft preparation. These guys aren’t world beaters. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

So line improved from average to above average? 

 

Whats not to like? 

 

...EXACTLY......and as they say in Mizzou, "show me"......I use worthless paper EVERY morning................

[BillyWhiteShows]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

You should change your name to BillyNewThreads

 

Not everyone considers it an insult to start a new thread....sorry

[billsredneck1]

2 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

We dont know if its gonna be a whole lot better all we knows is that last years guys didnt work so we got different guys.  Hell it could end up being worse (If thats possible) but they did a good job of aquiring what was available.

just thankful juan is gone. john miller will end up one of the best rated guards in the league. imo, juan ruined him. i think the staff knew he needed a fresh start and he landed closer to home. he got a very good deal and will surprise a lot of naysayers.

 

back on point, there's no way we can be coached any worse.

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

Not everyone considers it an insult to start a new thread....sorry

I don’t consider it an insult either. Just making an observation and a suggestions 

[klos63]

9 hours ago, Peter said:

 

According to the PFF ranking, we made the 13th ranked center the highest paid center in the NFL.  

 

I hope Mitch Morse plays up to his contract . . . otherwise McCoach are overpaying guys just as they thought the prior regime had done.

 

I will wait to see how Morse performs on the field, but it is interesting nonetheless.

He was the center, arguably the most important position on the line, on one of the most dynamic offenses in a long time, also with a 2nd year QB. The top center available as well, couldn't do much better.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

They went from having one starting-caliber OLmen to a minimum of 3, with a few others that have upside.

 

That's a significant improvement irrespective of whatever Pretend Football Focus' "grades" have to say.

 

And I'm not really picking on PFF; they do a very good job of tracking data, but their grades are HIGHLY subjective 

 

 

If you would have been told at his hiring that this would be the prospective quality of the OL going into year 3 of McDermott would you be pleased?

 

Probably not.

 

But fwiw when Rex took over the Bills OL was seen as being awful and the Incognito signing was smirked at..............good coaching and scheme and a mobile QB can make a huge difference to OL play.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[artmalibu]

I think it would be crazy to think the OL talent has not improved....   And, there could be more additions to come.  As for the guys who will not return, it was not due to money there is more than enough cap space to have resign them.  I trust the Bills signed players that are better than what they had, unless you want to believe they are setting up to tank.  

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks for this, and thanks to NyNole, too.  PFF is far, far from being the definitive word on anything.  People need to remember Kyle Williams being incredulous when he realized evaluations like PFF exist.  He asked how anyone except a coach who knew what the player's assignment was could possibly evaluate how he did on a play.  

 

And there's a much more important point, and that is that offensive line play is very much a team thing.  When a play succeeds, it's because the line succeeded as a UNIT.  Whether the Bills line has improved will depend on how the coaches are able to get the line to succeed as a UNIT.  

 

Having said that, going from no one who was good at center to someone who is among the best is a huge upgrade.  A guy who can read the defense and call assignments, as well as make all the blocks, will be a huge improvement alone.  Morse will make the guards better just by being there.  

 

I wonder how PFF would rate coaches who are essential to having a good OL.   The Bills have had some very good line coaches and then when new coaches come in they replace (or allow them to leave) to bring in coaches with golden parachutes to coach for one or two years.  I am sure if it was the coach's own money they would have searched harder and not just dumped coaches because the coaches were not picked by them.

 

I do think the Bills will use a lot of heavy 6 man OLs this year.  Wonder which one is going to be the primary #6 lineman.

[cba fan]

48 minutes ago, Jpsredemption said:

I think there is real reason to be skeptical. They brought in 1 name and several career backups. I’m not really sure where they immensely improved outside of center. 

And nothing they did at tackle should affect draft preparation. These guys aren’t world beaters. 

this is prime moneyball moves. Upgrade incrementally for less cash then big splashes.

 

As others posted the line went from having 1 above avg player to 3 now. That is a very big upgrade and they are not done yet. Draft or even an unexpected trade could up the ante on talent more yet.

Edited March 17, 2019 by cba fan

[formerlyofCtown]

2 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Excellent post! Let's also look at the "OVRL" Madden ratings.

 

Morse 82

Bodine 72

Nsekhe 76

Mills 71

Dawkins 78

Teller 75

Miller 74

Long 73

Ducasse 71

Waddle 70

 

The rest are all below 70 and Boettger is below 60. So, we have a sizeable improvement at C. A smaller improvement at RT and the rest of the FA's is a bunch of guys fighting for a backup job when camp starts. Long was a 78 in 2017 and injured his hand, so we'll see how that works out. Throw in a day 2 and a day 3 OL to compete and this is an OK OL, but nothing special. 3 upgrades would give Shady another 1,000 season and that could help Josh Allen a lot. The one to watch is Long. When he left the Redskins, he was a OVRL 91.

 

My guess is that Nsekhe starts in 2019 and we draft an OL on day 2 and 3. We'll see.

 

As far as receivers go, Jones is a 79. Beasley is 83, but he's 86 if I put him in as a slot receiver. Brown is 80 with 95 speed. Foster 73 with 93 speed. Kroft 77 and Croom 74. K Benjaman is 77, but started 2018 at 84 and Clay is 81.

Im sure this was how Beane made his descisions as well.  Very smart to use all available resources.?

[thebandit27]

24 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If you would have been told at his hiring that this would be the prospective quality of the OL going into year 3 of McDermott would you be pleased?

 

Probably not.

 

But fwiw when Rex took over the Bills OL was seen as being awful and the Incognito signing was smirked at..............good coaching and scheme and a mobile QB can make a huge difference to OL play.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Heck no.

 

I think the Wood extension really hurt them, and said so at the time.

 

But  one thing I've liked about them is that they seem to admit their mistakes and learn from them, so hopefully the new approach portends an improvement 

[BADOLBILZ]

7 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Heck no.

 

I think the Wood extension really hurt them, and said so at the time.

 

But  one thing I've liked about them is that they seem to admit their mistakes and learn from them, so hopefully the new approach portends an improvement 

 

 

Their willingness to admit mistakes is maybe the most encouraging thing about them.    They botched the Peterman thing twice but they've otherwise been more responsive to their bad decisions.

 

Extending Wood in summer 2017 was a Buddy-Nix-esque move.    Wood was going nowhere after the season they were just trying to schmooze/bribe a perceived leader into saying the right things and got burned.   Hopefully lesson learned. 

 

My concern with the past two UFA classes is that it's been a high volume of "oh really?" guys and contracts.     The 2018 last class was awfully unproductive and the "we didn't have any cap room" excuse doesn't really mesh with the $30M or so they spent.

 

Hopefully this class is A LOT better.

 

Obviously the hope is that not having that feeling of desperate "need" at positions leads to sounder, more effective drafting and that in the near future they won't need to sign 9-10 UFA's.   If this class leads to a tremendously successful draft then it will have been money well spent.

 

 

[Buffalo Junction]

59 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Their willingness to admit mistakes is maybe the most encouraging thing about them.    They botched the Peterman thing twice but they've otherwise been more responsive to their bad decisions.

 

Extending Wood in summer 2017 was a Buddy-Nix-esque move.    Wood was going nowhere after the season they were just trying to schmooze/bribe a perceived leader into saying the right things and got burned.   Hopefully lesson learned. 

 

My concern with the past two UFA classes is that it's been a high volume of "oh really?" guys and contracts.     The 2018 last class was awfully unproductive and the "we didn't have any cap room" excuse doesn't really mesh with the $30M or so they spent.

 

Hopefully this class is A LOT better.

 

Obviously the hope is that not having that feeling of desperate "need" at positions leads to sounder, more effective drafting and that in the near future they won't need to sign 9-10 UFA's.   If this class leads to a tremendously successful draft then it will have been money well spent.

 

 

I wasn't a big fan of the extra money, but I think extending Wood made sense within the structure of their plans. McBeane knew they were going to draft a QB, and having a veteran like Wood at center assisting with calls, protections, etc. is definitively beneficial. They scrambled last offseason and grabbed Bodine who had experience, but failed to perform at a needed level. Fortunately they rectified the problem with the Morse signing unless something unexpected occurs.