Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[C.Biscuit97]

20 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I agree about Moulds, Moulds was our KR/PR/WR and had to fight off  Reed, Early and that TE we had which I cannot remember. Also Allen is light years ahead of Todd Collins and Van Pelt. I'm still pissed that we missed out on Juju and my personalized Bad Juju jersey.

I was pretty young for those years so I looked them up and a couple interesting things

 

1) Jerry Reese, the former Giants GM, was a receiver for us.

 

2) Collins first year as a true starter was also exactly like Allen’s passing wise. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CollTo00.htm

 

3) was Moulds’ 1995 season the most dominant receiving season in Bills’ history?

 

[BillsVet]

4 hours ago, Pete said:

I have a hunch that Duke might be very good playing slot.  If he outplays Zay in camp, Zay might be in trouble.  

 

Duke is a possession guy and not elusive enough to play from the slot. 

 

4 hours ago, WMDman said:

I really don’t get the hate for Zay 

 

No one hates him. It's a matter that as a 2nd round pick he's not exactly performing in a pass-heavy league the way many fans expected.  Especially when compared to other recent 2nd round picks. 

 

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I argue for patience with Zay and any young WR.  

 

Here are the first two year stats for one of the very best receivers in Bills’ history:

49 catches, 575 yards, 11.7 ypc, 2 TDS

 

That great player was Eric Moulds.

 

To point to a more current example at a different position, Jerry Hughes was traded to the Bills because the Colts gave up on him early.

 

Eric Moulds' best days were 15-20 years ago and the league's dramatically changed since then. The PI and RTP calls, among other things, make this even more a passing league than it was in the late 90s/early 00s.  These comparisons are moot and not representative of the opportunity that WR's have presented now to succeed at the start of their career.

 

And, one player's career has absolutely nothing to do with another's.  Besides, Moulds and Jones are completely different players.  Before he got older, Moulds could run by people but Jones is not a burner (cue the person citing his 40 time).  

[CaptnCoke11]

At worst he’ll be #4 and he’s on a rookie deal so i think he’s safe 

[Teddy KGB]

He sucks but he should be safe for one more season.  

[BillsSB2020]

11 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Duke is a possession guy and not elusive enough to play from the slot. 

 

 

No one hates him. It's a matter that as a 2nd round pick he's not exactly performing in a pass-heavy league the way many fans expected.  Especially when compared to other recent 2nd round picks. 

 

 

Eric Moulds' best days were 15-20 years ago and the league's dramatically changed since then. The PI and RTP calls, among other things, make this even more a passing league than it was in the late 90s/early 00s.  These comparisons are moot and not representative of the opportunity that WR's have presented now to succeed at the start of their career.

 

And, one player's career has absolutely nothing to do with another's.  Besides, Moulds and Jones are completely different players.  Before he got older, Moulds could run by people but Jones is not a burner (cue the person citing his 40 time).  

I'm not disputing your entire premise, but I distinctly remember Moulds getting caught from behind in the Dolphins playoff game and fumbling. Such a deflating play. Maybe it was T Buck who caught him. Not quite sure. I love Moulds, but he was no burner.

Edited February 28, 2019 by BillsSB2020

[Rc2catch]

Unless they were to swing some huge kind of trade plus sign a few free agents I would think Zay is safe. 

Cheap contract, still room to improve.. Doesn’t make sense to let him go for nothing 

[RocCityRoller]

I thought he came on pretty well at the end of the year and started to establish a rapport with JA.

 

56/ 650 and 7 TDs. Not bad for a guy playing with 4 QBs, a fat cow across from him and nothing from the RB position.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

More from McD:

 

“At the end of the day I’m looking for a guy that can affect a defense, from a matchup standpoint, and a guy that people have to be mindful of,” McDermott said. “Other than that I want them to get open, catch the ball and put the ball down - and then come back and do it again.”

 

Hmmmmm...how many of these traits are strengths of Zay that McD wants from his WR's?

1. Affect a defense from a matchup standpoint:  Nope
2. A guy that people have to be mindful of:  Nope
3. Gets open:  Nope
4. Catch the ball:  Nope
5. Come back and do it again (consistency):  Nope

 

Prove me wrong Zay, but right now you don't come to mind when I hear our coaches and GM talk about what they want in a WR.

Edited February 28, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, RocCityRoller said:

I thought he came on pretty well at the end of the year and started to establish a rapport with JA.

 

56/ 650 and 7 TDs. Not bad for a guy playing with 4 QBs, a fat cow across from him and nothing from the RB position.

 

Zay was phenomenal when games were out of reach.  His big day at NYJ with 8 catches for 93 yards and 2 TDs largely occurred when Buffalo was up 2 scores.  

 

When it matters, ZJ's targets aren't high. Blame it on the QB, OL, whatever...he's not a factor when it matters.  At least not yet. 

[KOKBILLS]

I think Zay is our #3 in 2019 behind D.K. and Foster...

[Chandler#81]

9 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I disagree mostly because he drafted him and those guys always get more timeI think he will get more chances for that reason. I also think that McD knows that the QB situation hasn’t been ideal for a developing WR. In addition, he’s shown the ability to make plays have big games, he hasn’t been a complete no show. I believe that he will get his full rookie contract to prove himself and the Bills will make a decision on him at that point. 

 

I agree -to disagree- with you that Zay will see his full rookie contract unless we draft the next Rice & Reed before then. I was ready to move on from him after his disastrous rookie season and naked suicide attempt (?), but he improved significantly this past season and built a rapport with a fellow McBeane draft pick at QB. 3rd year is typically when WRs really break out, too.

[Chandler#81]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Honestly, I almost added that to my OP.  Its not crazy either, as Zay could be a better fit for the slot role there with Daltons more average arm and Ross could be of more interest to the Bills for Allens deep ball.  

 

I don't think its crazy to propose, however, I think the Bengals would be more interested in draft picks than another WR given they have 2 other very good WR's already.  

Props to you Alphadawg7. You’ve shown our newbs how to create a thread with a possibly polarizing theme and oversee and interact with the thread. You win best poster for the rest of the month!??

[Alphadawg7]

38 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Props to you Alphadawg7. You’ve shown our newbs how to create a thread with a possibly polarizing theme and oversee and interact with the thread. You win best poster for the rest of the month!??

 

Aw shucks *blushing* thanks 

 

You can send my prize money to my Venmo 

[GunnerBill]

I don't think he is a lock. 

[Hebert19]

I see OPs point but no chance.  

 

1.  Cap hit of 1.8M is cheap.   Less than Andrew Holmes was to play special teams. 

2.  1.5 dead cap of cut. 

3.  You dont give up on a 23 year old that caught 56 passes and 7 TDs in his second year. 

4.   Wr is our weakest position.  Unless we sign 1 or 2 guys and draft someone high there is no way hes not in the top 5 or 6 wrs.

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

I see OPs point but no chance.  

 

1.  Cap hit of 1.8M is cheap.   Less than Andrew Holmes was to play special teams. 

2.  1.5 dead cap of cut. 

3.  You dont give up on a 23 year old that caught 56 passes and 7 TDs in his second year. 

4.   Wr is our weakest position.  Unless we sign 1 or 2 guys and draft someone high there is no way hes not in the top 5 or 6 wrs.

 

Already had one "off-field" issue and was overtaken by Foster on the outside and McKenzie in the slot in the last 3rd of last season. I think he more than likely makes the roster but I don't think he is even close to a lock at this point and Alpha set the arguments for why out cogently.

 

[Blokestradamus]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Already had one "off-field" issue and was overtaken by Foster on the outside and McKenzie in the slot in the last 3rd of last season. I think he more than likely makes the roster but I don't think he is even close to a lock at this point and Alpha set the arguments for why out cogently.

 

If Zay ends up being surpassed to the point of being the 4th or even 5th best option at WR, he's done. Most depth WR's play on teams and Zay has played 6 ST snaps over the last 2 seasons.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

If Zay ends up being surpassed to the point of being the 4th or even 5th best option at WR, he's done. Most depth WR's play on teams and Zay has played 6 ST snaps over the last 2 seasons.

 

Yep. Another very good point.

[BobbyC81]

13 hours ago, Augie said:

I think he stays. He’s cheap and his leap from year 1 to year 2 was impressive and makes me hope he keeps improving. I think there may have some some stuff messing up his head year 1. 

 

At times this season he reminded me of Jarvis Landry.

[GreggTX]

13 hours ago, mannc said:

I thought that might be the case last year.  I think this year Zay’s safer, but not a lock to make the team.  Cutting him would mean Sean admitting to a bad mistake, which he won’t do unless there’s really no other choice.

 

McDermott did not scout, grade or draft Jones or anyone else that offseason. That's not his job, but sure, he's consulted. I'm amazed that some folks are so confused about this. Also, if your contention that McDermott won't release a player he ordered either Whaley or Beane to sign because he's too vain to admit that he made a mistake is true, then Kelvin Benjaman would still be on our roster. I apologize if that comes off as brash. I just disagree with the comment you made.

Edited February 28, 2019 by GreggTX

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Can’t believe people are agreeing with this silly take lol

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

Can’t believe people are agreeing with this silly take lol

 

Not agreeing... just not dismissing out of hand either.

[Jpsredemption]

I’m not saying cut the guy but despite some ok touchdown numbers from last year he was still wildly inconsistent and drop prone. He has no one special quality for a wideout. Make or break year.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

Can’t believe people are agreeing with this silly take lol

Its the offseason. 

 

I guess the other 2, 4, or 5 Zay is a bust threads didn't discuss this enough.  

 

Was Zay EVER supposed to be the # 1 or just a cog int he wheel. 

 

This is year 3. (the average life span of a NFL player) I'll pass judgement after the season. 

45 minutes ago, Jpsredemption said:

I’m not saying cut the guy but despite some ok touchdown numbers from last year he was still wildly inconsistent and drop prone. He has no one special quality for a wideout. Make or break year.

Yes He's drop passes.   

 

Believe it or not no WR is 100% on catching balls. 

 

Zay "may suck", but as it was discussed in last seasons Zay sucks threads he was still the leading WR on the team with catches and yards.  

 

[MrEpsYtown]

I tend to agree with the OP. Zay Jones to the Chargers for Forrest Lamp and a pick. 

 

This reunites Zay with Phil McGeoghan and it allows the Chargers to replace Tyrell Williams with a cheaper guy. We get a nice guard prospect, who would be a top 1-2 interior player in this draft. Chargers throw in a pick because we are assuming some risk as Lamp has barely played since he was drafted. 

 

I think it's a win-win for both teams. 

[WideRightRevenge]

15 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Hands:  Struggles catching the ball.  Makes easy catches look hard and drops too many passes.

I agree year 1 was a disaster .. I also agree year 2 that a lot of stats were in garbage time .. but the kid had 399 catches at ECU ... not sure how that occurs if one struggles catching the ball ... I think he is overthinking things when his number is called and needs to breathe through his eyelids and let his natural talent take over.  I look forward to his Year 3 (and year 2 with Josh).

 

15 hours ago, Flip Johnson said:

The Bills need WRs. 

They have a 23yr old that they invested a 2nd round pick in.

He is cost-controlled.

He more than doubled his catches in year 2.

 

There is zero chance he gets cut this year.

 

Preach Flip

[badassgixxer05]

I thought Jones was pretty solid in the back half of the season. Seemed to be getting in a grove with Allen. I think he will be a big part of the offense going into this season personally. Lets see a break out year 3!

[mannc]

11 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

3) was Moulds’ 1995 season the most dominant receiving season in Bills’ history?

 

You meant 1998, I assume.  Answer: yes.  He was an absolute beast.  Go watch highlights of the “just give it to ‘em” game.  Unstoppable.

[mannc]

2 hours ago, GreggTX said:

 

McDermott did not scout, grade or draft Jones or anyone else that offseason. That's not his job, but sure, he's consulted. I'm amazed that some folks are so confused about this. Also, if your contention that McDermott won't release a player he ordered either Whaley or Beane to sign because he's too vain to admit that he made a mistake is true, then Kelvin Benjaman would still be on our roster. I apologize if that comes off as brash. I just disagree with the comment you made.

Astro made the same point upthread, and it’s a fair one.  But Benjamin was such an obvious turd that he just HAD to go.  

 

If Jones gets cut, it will be because we have significantly upgraded the WR room, which would be great news.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

23 minutes ago, WideRightRevenge said:

I agree year 1 was a disaster .. I also agree year 2 that a lot of stats were in garbage time .. but the kid had 399 catches at ECU ... not sure how that occurs if one struggles catching the ball ... I think he is overthinking things when his number is called and needs to breathe through his eyelids and let his natural talent take over.  I look forward to his Year 3 (and year 2 with Josh).

 

according to some 

 

garbage time was nearly every game.,

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

For those who called out for a look at 

 

Michael Crabtree or Pierre Garcon

 

their catch rate is worse that Zay's 

 

[Orlando Tim]

16 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I disagree mostly because he drafted him and those guys always get more timeI think he will get more chances for that reason. I also think that McD knows that the QB situation hasn’t been ideal for a developing WR. In addition, he’s shown the ability to make plays have big games, he hasn’t been a complete no show. I believe that he will get his full rookie contract to prove himself and the Bills will make a decision on him at that point. 

The first line is most important- guys like NFL head coaches need to be proven wrong after they make a decision and Zay has not been proven bad- even though he is a long way from proven good. Also i do not think we will have 5 better recievers this year on roster and he is not a huge salary.

[DCOrange]

7 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

For those who called out for a look at 

 

Michael Crabtree or Pierre Garcon

 

their catch rate is worse that Zay's 

 

Garcon, yes. Crabtree, not really. If you look at their pages on PlayerProfiler.com, they weed out uncatchable targets and then look at the catch rate after the fact. Zay improved from 57.4% (which was basically the worst in the NFL) to 71.8%. Crabtree was at 75% this year (up from just under 70% the year before).

 

As for the OP, I personally think he SHOULD be on the roster bubble this year; we'll see how the offseason goes though. I'd like to see them add 3 legitimate WRs to the roster (along with a bunch of likely training camp fodder types) and make Zay earn his spot, but I'm not entirely sure we'll do that.

Edited February 28, 2019 by DCOrange

[GunnerBill]

44 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I tend to agree with the OP. Zay Jones to the Chargers for Forrest Lamp and a pick. 

 

This reunites Zay with Phil McGeoghan and it allows the Chargers to replace Tyrell Williams with a cheaper guy. We get a nice guard prospect, who would be a top 1-2 interior player in this draft. Chargers throw in a pick because we are assuming some risk as Lamp has barely played since he was drafted. 

 

I think it's a win-win for both teams. 

 

Depends whether you project Jonah as a guard or a tackle..... but he is the only potential interior guy I have a higher grade on than I had on Lamp coming out. If you categorise Jonah as a tackle then I have no interior guys in this draft graded as highly as I had Lamp two years ago. 

[MrEpsYtown]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Depends whether you project Jonah as a guard or a tackle..... but he is the only potential interior guy I have a higher grade on than I had on Lamp coming out. If you categorise Jonah as a tackle then I have no interior guys in this draft graded as highly as I had Lamp two years ago. 

 

Would you do that trade Gunner? 

[auburnbillsbacker]

He improved from year 1 to year 2 and will be better next season.  Some WRs excel immediately but most take a few years.  He will be on the team and will be on the field a significant amount of snaps.   It is also my prediction that he ends up with more receiving yards and TDs than any WR we draft.  

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Would you do that trade Gunner? 

 

Yes.... although I still want them to go after one of the top FA guards too (ideally Spain) and then with Spain, Long (who is a serviceable G and a poor C in my view), Teller and Lamp you have a strong stable of guards to compete in camp. You pencil Spain in as the starter at LG and you let the other three battle it out. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Has experience inside and outside - Was our leading WR last year, had 7 TDs.  He seemed to get a lot better with Allen by the end of the year.  Had 5 TDs in the last 5 weeks, and had a really nice game with Barkley.  The only Goose egg was against Jax - and we didn't really pass much in that one.

[Bing Bong]

hot take but I like the discussion. Seriously doubt he gets cut, at the worst I'm sure he beats out Duke if they're having a battle in preseason. We oughta keep 5 WRs on deck and not seeing us with 4 new WRs without Foster. 

 

We've already cleaned house at WR, there's plenty of room for new ones. I think McDermott's rhetoric is rationalizing why he'd keep 2 returning WRs, not one. Not to mention he's clearly talking about receiving options at TE and possibly RB as well. 

 

I'd give serious pause to cut Zay, and I've been a big critic myself. But I really want to see our WR under a rookie deal drafted get a 3rd before making a snap decision. That's typically when WRs show their chops if they aren't performing to draft status, or when they can be written off. A few of the attributes you listed (I can only think of hands right now - most important for me) seems like the sort of WR we thought we were drafting. If Zay does indeed improve much closer to what his draft day potential indicated in year 3, then he should significantly improve as a possession WR.

 

That's been his biggest struggle. Being a WR drafted for his hands and being so prolific in college and completely losing that key attribute he was drafted for. And he got a bit better but certainly still ticks me off with drops.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

For those who called out for a look at 

 

Michael Crabtree or Pierre Garcon

 

their catch rate is worse that Zay's 

 

Catch rates are always lower for guys who run deeper routes (and Christ, RBs usually have catch rates between 75 and 80 percent). Jones doesn't run many deep routes.