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Alphadawg7

Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

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I think he stays.  It's hard to imagine the Bills having 5 WR's who are better than him.  I'm reserving the 6th WR as a special teams guy.  Plus Zay is on a cheap rookie deal.

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10 minutes ago, Augie said:

I think he stays. He’s cheap and his leap from year 1 to year 2 was impressive and makes me hope he keeps improving. I think there may have some some stuff messing up his head year 1. 

 

1 minute ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I looked at the numbers, the improvement  was  more impressive than i thought.  Just based on target/receptions, he caught 36% in '17 up to 55% to '18.

 

 

...and I don't think it is us just going to bat for the kid and being in his corner.  What it really comes down to is that he has improved and may improve even more in his third season, with better oline, but other young receivers around him.

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I thought he improved last year

 

Having said that....Zay is in real trouble because the bills are in a position to be VERY aggressive in getting pass catcher's this offseason.......this will not be a situation where lack of talent allows Zay to not be consistant.

 

Does he answer the bell?

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38 minutes ago, mannc said:

I thought that might be the case last year.  I think this year Zay’s safer, but not a lock to make the team.  Cutting him would mean Sean admitting to a bad mistake, which he won’t do unless there’s really no other choice.

 

True, however they did cut KB even though they spent a 3rd on him and he they could have let him walk a handful of weeks later if they were concerened with how cutting him would look. So I do think McD and Beane will put the team first over looking wrong.  

 

 

32 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I'll say Zay makes the team this year..

 

He is still cheap, and players with only 2 years experience can still improve...

 

Look no further than this time last year when similar threads were being started about Shaq Lawson

 

 

 

 

True but we didn’t add a high level free agent or draft pick to challenge him for his roster spot.  We are likely adding a WR early in draft, and could add a total of 2 to 3 more to go with duke also competing.  So Shaq wasn’t staring down the barrel of the same threat to his spot as Zay will be

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38 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

Listened to McD on WGR interview after his press conference.  He mentioned changes in the coaching staff...that coaches need to be all in, all the time and giving maximum effort.  You got the impression (and Murphy and Tasker mentioned this) that Robiske wasn't doing that as a coach.  Improving the WR corps has to include improving the coaches.

 

Probably all 4 guys to be honest that they let go. There is a common theme. 4 older coaches with long track records of success who may have been stuck in their ways and didn’t want to change or thought their job status was secure replaced by 4 guys who are all younger and haven’t had the taste yet or being a full time guy besides Dorsey. Guys who will be hungry to make a difference on the staff. 

Edited by gonzo1105
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16 minutes ago, Flip Johnson said:

 

This is the rare, well-written, carefully reasoned, totally ridiculous take on this board.

 

The Bills need WRs. 

They have a 23yr old that they invested a 2nd round pick in.

He is cost-controlled.

He more than doubled his catches in year 2.

 

There is zero chance he gets cut this year.

 

 

I said traded, not cut.  

 

And being 23 in not relevant given we already have young players in foster, duke and any rookies we draft.

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I don't see the point in cutting him. Maybe a trade if you can get some assets.

 

He seems like the type to play better when he has more talent around him. I don't think he can function as a #1. But as a 3rd option I think he could be effective.

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Zay was pretty productive the last 8 weeks of the season...I think you'd be surprised at how his numbers stacked up against other WR's in the NFL if you went and looked at them over that time frame...

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Zay showed improvement last year, which is a positive for him.  I think he makes the team this year unless the Bills get such an infusion of WR talent, which I can't imagine, that it pushes him out.

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23 minutes ago, Flip Johnson said:

 

This is the rare, well-written, carefully reasoned, totally ridiculous take on this board.

 

The Bills need WRs. 

They have a 23yr old that they invested a 2nd round pick in.

He is cost-controlled.

He more than doubled his catches in year 2.

 

There is zero chance he gets cut this year.

 

Stellar take. 

 

OP put a ton of work into the post, and it was well done, but at the end of the day, you can write a whole book on the topic, it is still going to be completely absurd to think Zay is going to get cut. 

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NextGen stats shows him at 2.8 yards separation, which is about average.  Foster is at 2.7, as is Michael Thomas.

 

He’ll have a locker.

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3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

True but we didn’t add a high level free agent or draft pick to challenge him for his roster spot.  We are likely adding a WR early in draft, and could add a total of 2 to 3 more to go with duke also competing.  So Shaq wasn’t staring down the barrel of the same threat to his spot as Zay will be

 

You don't consider Murphy as someone who was added last year to compete with Shaq? I wouldn't say Murphy is high level, but he was one of a few that they elected to spend very sparse available cap dollars on last offseason

 

I think if Shaq didn't improve last year on what he showed the first two years he would be gone by now.. maybe not at the start of last season but probably by the end...

 

I agree with you that they will add another three WR's this offseason..  one in FA, one early in the draft and probably another on Day 3 so competition will certainly be on...

 

Its not a definite he makes it but unless he looks appalling I'd probably give him the benefit of the doubt considering they will be going into the season with a pretty inexperienced group.. at least he has two years of NFL experience..

 

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@Alphadawg7

 

Alpha on a team that was hideous on offense, which I know he was part of, he caught 56, for 656 yards, and 7 TDs. Hhis receptions, yards, and TDs led the team and he now has 2 years under his belt, which is important in the NFL when it comes to receivers.

 

I just don't see a former CFL player, or a rookie coming in and taking over the lead on this team.

 

If I am wrong, it would be great, because I would imagine you'd be looking at a rookie with 70 grabs and maybe Zay around 58-60.  However, I just don't see it.

 

Now, if we get a FA WR, depending upon the FA, I might see somethings differently.  However, not to the degree of him not being on this team.  He was this Coach's 2nd overall pick.  

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30 minutes ago, DCbillsfan said:

I think he stays.  It's hard to imagine the Bills having 5 WR's who are better than him.  I'm reserving the 6th WR as a special teams guy.  Plus Zay is on a cheap rookie deal.

Actually.....a very good point brought here

 

Does Zay play ST's?

 

Because that could end up being a factor

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7 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Stellar take. 

 

OP put a ton of work into the post, and it was well done, but at the end of the day, you can write a whole book on the topic, it is still going to be completely absurd to think Zay is going to get cut. 

 

Again, just to clarify I said traded, not cut.  

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22 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

True, however they did cut KB even though they spent a 3rd on him and he they could have let him walk a handful of weeks later if they were concerened with how cutting him would look. So I do think McD and Beane will put the team first over looking wrong.  

 

 

 

True but we didn’t add a high level free agent or draft pick to challenge him for his roster spot.  We are likely adding a WR early in draft, and could add a total of 2 to 3 more to go with duke also competing.  So Shaq wasn’t staring down the barrel of the same threat to his spot as Zay will be

Both good points.

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We need to add 3 Wrs this offseason

 

#1 sign Donte Moncreif 

#2 either draft DK in 1st or Hakeem in 2nd

#3 draft Andy Isabella in 3rd

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If the rookie we draft is DK Metcalf, there's no way he's ready to start in year 1. That guy is as raw of a first round WR prospect I've ever seen. He makes Zay's route running look polished. Zay will probably still be our Slot WR in 2019.

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I argue for patience with Zay and any young WR.  

 

Here are the first two year stats for one of the very best receivers in Bills’ history:

49 catches, 575 yards, 11.7 ypc, 2 TDS

 

Here are Zay Jones’ stats for his first two seasons:

83 catches, 968 yards, 11.7 ypc, 9 TDS

 

For sure, passing is more prevalent and easier today than it was when the all-time great played, but the point is that if the Bills had given up on that player because he didn’t burn up the league in his first two years, they would have missed out on a great player.

 

That great player was Eric Moulds.

 

To point to a more current example at a different position, Jerry Hughes was traded to the Bills because the Colts gave up on him early.

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Checking in to say, Zay will be fine.  And he'll remain on the roster.  He remains a good value on his rookie deal.  Why discard the investment now while he's on the upswing?

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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I could be wrong, but this is just what I believe based on the additions I expect Beane to make in the WR room.  I have no issues if others don't agree, just my opinion on the matter, nothing more.  

 

I have consistently said this all off season, and McDermott just said something again that enforces that belief.  I think they see how the Rams cleared out their WR room and so did the Bears and in both cases their young QB's took big strides as passers.  Eagles did the same for Wentz too.  

 

"We're looking for guys that can get open and catch the ball."  Yes, that is an obvious trait for any WR, but also its telling that he and Beane keep making these comments given the struggles all year, including Zay, to do these very basic things.  

 

I think the WR room will be crowded once free agency and the draft is over (likely 2 to 3 additions) and Zay is going to be someone who has to really impress in camp to make this roster.   Right now, there is not one part of being a wide receiver that Zay does particularly well outside of his reported good work ethic.  

 

  1. Hands:  Struggles catching the ball.  Makes easy catches look hard and drops too many passes.
  2. Separation:  Has struggled to get separation, especially playing on the outside.  
  3. Route Running:  Part of his issue with getting separation is his inconsistent route running.
  4. Speed:  He has average speed.  He is fast enough to play in the league, but to be consistent with his speed he needs to be a good route runner.  
  5. Physicality:  He is easily man handled by physical corners.  Games like the Lions and Pats this year he was dominated physically for example.  
  6. Contested Catches:  One of the weakest part of his game.
  7. Catch Radius:  Very limited mostly due to his inconsistent hands and lack of physicality.  

 

Foster:  Penciled in as a projected #2 WR.  However, if we bring in a potential starter in FA and also draft one early, then Foster is no lock for #2 and could be used more out of the slot or as a deep threat.  Additionally, if we draft say Metcalf or make a splashy trade for someone like Brown (less likely), then Duke could make a real challenge for #2 as a big catch radius compliment to a #1 who poses a real deep threat opposite him. 

 

Duke:  He has to prove himself in the NFL, I get that.  But if we take an honest assessment of him, his issues were never talent related.  He isn't a speed burner, but he has a big catch radius, runs good routes, and has great hands.  He could legit compete for the #2 opposite a big play #1.  Even if not a #2, its more than reasonable he has a legit shot to make this team and compete for minutes.  

 

Zay:  Best suited for the slot, however his lack of consistent hands and his issues with separation make his spot there vulnerable.  If our top 2 WR's this next season dont include Foster, then I can easily see Foster challenging to play in the slot, and he already has surpassed Zay.  

 

We are adding at least 2 additonal WR's (and maybe 3) this offseason expected to start or compete to start to go along with the 3 guys already here.  With McD and Beanes consistent comments about getting open and catching the ball, I think Zay is in trouble and will be a training camp trade for a 4th round or conditional 5th round pick.  

I was thinking the same thing.  Foster is a keeper.  His big play ability keeps him on the field.  McKenzie will get touches because he has exceptional quickness and is effective.  Everyone says we need to add 1-2 WRs and a TE.  Say we add 2 WRs, one in the draft and FA.  Add those to foster, McKenzie and Zay.  He provides decent depth but needs to improve or he won’t get a 2nd deal with the Bills.  If we add 3 WRs, he may not make it another season with us

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1 hour ago, Flip Johnson said:

 

This is the rare, well-written, carefully reasoned, totally ridiculous take on this board.

 

The Bills need WRs. 

They have a 23yr old that they invested a 2nd round pick in.

He is cost-controlled.

He more than doubled his catches in year 2.

 

There is zero chance he gets cut this year.

 

Good post, agree 100%.  He will be on the team in 2019.  Maybe the role reduced but on the team.

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