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Alphadawg7

Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

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59 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

 

...and I don't think it is us just going to bat for the kid and being in his corner.  What it really comes down to is that he has improved and may improve even more in his third season, with better oline, but other young receivers around him.

 

......not to mention a QB with a year under his belt! I pray that make a HUGE difference! 

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1 hour ago, Kelly the Dog said:

All I know is that I don't want Zay Jones to be anything above our #4 WR. We need a solid vet and a potential young star either through the draft, trade or FA. Then hopefully Foster improves and maybe Duke leapfrogs Jones.

 

Even if he has taken the next step you wouldn't want him to be above the #4 WR?  This is just silly and shows you just don't like the guy one bit and no matter what he does you are still not going to like or want him involved with the offense.

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7 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

 

Even if he has taken the next step you wouldn't want him to be above the #4 WR?  This is just silly and shows you just don't like the guy one bit and no matter what he does you are still not going to like or want him involved with the offense.

He improved dramatically last year all the way up to still not being good. If he improved the same amount I don’t want him in the top three which is on the field a substantial amount of time. It’s not only drops. He doesn’t do a lot of things well. 

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22 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I was thinking the same thing.  Foster is a keeper.  His big play ability keeps him on the field.  McKenzie will get touches because he has exceptional quickness and is effective.  Everyone says we need to add 1-2 WRs and a TE.  Say we add 2 WRs, one in the draft and FA.  Add those to foster, McKenzie and Zay.  He provides decent depth but needs to improve or he won’t get a 2nd deal with the Bills.  If we add 3 WRs, he may not make it another season with us

 

Dont forget Duke...he has a real shot to both make this team and play a relevant role.  Talent was never his issue.

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1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Its fun to have these sort of thought experiments, but its never going to happen. 

 

He is on his rookie deal, it costs as little as it can to keep him.  Plus, he is in his third year, will almost certainly continue to improve, and has produced way more than any other street FA would.  There is just no incentive to cut him.  

Year 3 is a key year for WRs.

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53 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

@Alphadawg7

 

Alpha on a team that was hideous on offense, which I know he was part of, he caught 56, for 656 yards, and 7 TDs. Hhis receptions, yards, and TDs led the team and he now has 2 years under his belt, which is important in the NFL when it comes to receivers.

 

I just don't see a former CFL player, or a rookie coming in and taking over the lead on this team.

 

If I am wrong, it would be great, because I would imagine you'd be looking at a rookie with 70 grabs and maybe Zay around 58-60.  However, I just don't see it.

 

Now, if we get a FA WR, depending upon the FA, I might see somethings differently.  However, not to the degree of him not being on this team.  He was this Coach's 2nd overall pick.  

 

Nothing wrong with your response here or really anyone elses, I know I am going a bit out on a limb, but its honestly my gut feeling right now.  And that can certainly change, I made this post based on my expectation on what I think Beane is going to bring in at WR.  

 

Couple counter thoughts on some of your points.  

 

Zays production:  The reality is, someone has to catch the ball.  If you are good enough to make the NFL, and play enough snaps, youre going to have some level of production especially since he started the whole season.  And you can argue an UDFA rookie who got cut came back and surpassed him as the better reciever in the 2nd half of the season.  

  • Also, Zay gets a LOT of production when the coverage breaks down and Allen is scrambling.  If our WR's were winning on their routes more, Allen would have options early and not have to scramble as much to buy time.  We need WR's that get open on their initial route, not just after coverage breaks down when Allen is improvising.  

Duke and your CFL player comment:  Honestly, I would normally agree with you here.  However, Duke is not your "normal" CFL case.  He did not wind up in the CFL because of a lack of talent or the inability to play in the NFL.  Talent has never been the issue, he made off field mistakes that took those opportunities away.  He went to the CFL to mature (which he apparently did) and earn his shot in the NFL where he was the leagues best WR.  He is young, matured, and hungry to prove he belongs, I would not under estimate his ability to make this team.  Lot of people here didnt think much of Cameron Wake going to Miami, while some of us really wanted him and thought he had a ton of potential. 

 

I have nothing against Zay and would LOVE him to prove to be a good WR and make this team.  But its a numbers game, and Zay has NOT made the most of his opportunities.  

 

End of the day, its a numbers game.  Most WRs they will keep is 6, and that 6th will certainly be a big ST contributor.  And they may only keep 5.  With Foster, Zay and Duke already here, and a likely ST guy we are at 4.  Adding 2 two more guys puts us at 6.  

 

So for me, I think if Zay is falling to 4th or lower on the depth chart, Beane will try and trade him before his value drops lower sitting on our bench for a season.  And I think Zay is going to fall to at least 4th once we get into camp and preseason some and he could be a late trade like AJM was.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I disagree mostly because he drafted him and those guys always get more timeI think he will get more chances for that reason. I also think that McD knows that the QB situation hasn’t been ideal for a developing WR. In addition, he’s shown the ability to make plays have big games, he hasn’t been a complete no show. I believe that he will get his full rookie contract to prove himself and the Bills will make a decision on him at that point. 

 

...nice assessment Yolo and I agree....:thumbsup:

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1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I looked at the numbers, the improvement  was  more impressive than i thought.  Just based on target/receptions, he caught 36% in '17 up to 55% to '18.

and that is important to keep in mind.

 He got off to a horrid start as a Bill. on and off the field, nearly epic bad first season. Epic bad.
Last he looked to me he ran better routes. he absolutely has more work to do. I think strongly Bills give him plenty of competition.

 But i also believe he earned his keep well enough/

 

 Late bloomer. real late  lol.
needs to work on separation on the short area routes. Josh does not trust him enough yet either.Both guy sare young.

  I respect my friends original post. and certainly has logic behind his effort : )
 

#missBobWoods

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34 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Dont forget Duke...he has a real shot to both make this team and play a relevant role.  Talent was never his issue.

There must be a solid reason Zay fell apart emotionally  his first year.
We most all know he was pretty damned decent in College. and most of us liked the pick because he looked solid day one starter to me. in slot as w 2B or #3.

Hope they give him another year 

 Full on for upgrades via draft draft and of course FA though !  The room needs plenty of help regardless

 fix the Offense in one offseason McBeanes.

 Go Bills

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I could see him dropping down the depth chart, but probably not off the team. Just not enough talent to replace him. That includes Duke - who I think is far more likely than Zay to get cut. 

Edited by skibum

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If they determine he isn’t worthy of a spot, then I think Zay will be gone. Unlike past regimes, these guys so far have not been afraid to admit mistakes,  cut their losses, and move on. :thumbsup:

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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Dont forget Duke...he has a real shot to both make this team and play a relevant role.  Talent was never his issue.

I love the signing and really like what I’ve seen on tape from duke.  That being said, in just gong to consider him a bonus if he works out.  I’m not counting on him to do well, but I am really eager to see him play.  Love that physicality 

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1 minute ago, NewEra said:

I love the signing and really like what I’ve seen on tape from duke.  That being said, in just gong to consider him a bonus if he works out.  I’m not counting on him to do well, but I am really eager to see him play.  Love that physicality 

Expectations should be tempered here. 
 To consider  Bills releasing Jones before we even see Williams in OTAs because some are assuming he will rise up the depth chart as soon as OTAs start : ) is a bit of a stretch for me.

and saying Foster is a better WR is also  a too early to tell call . He certainly brings a needed facet to Allens arm and Dabolls scheme. but they have different skill sets imo.

 

6 minutes ago, Rico said:

If they determine he isn’t worthy of a spot, then I think Zay will be gone. Unlike past regimes, these guys so far have not been afraid to admit mistakes,  cut their losses, and move on. :thumbsup:

if they can improve on the position? i trust they will. and if Jones gets pushed off the roster because of that? just fine by me. Jones will find work

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The trade up for Zay is one if the worst draft day decisions in a long time.  I hated it at the time (loved JuJu who was drafted after the Bills original pick) and it is even worse after you see how good Kupp is.  That said, he has a value as a shaky 2 or solid 3 receiver.  Like the Bengals with Ross, what do you really gain by letting him go now?  He has low trade value.

 

so unless he fights for Jesus again or some dumb team makes a dumb offer, you are better off keeping him.  

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Haven’t read the entire thread so apologies if this is a repeat. I have stated in multiple WR discussions about the length of time it takes for WR’s to come into their own. This includes hall of famers. 

 

Zay will have a long leash, as he should. 

Edited by TroutDog
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2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I disagree mostly because he drafted him and those guys always get more timeI think he will get more chances for that reason. I also think that McD knows that the QB situation hasn’t been ideal for a developing WR. In addition, he’s shown the ability to make plays have big games, he hasn’t been a complete no show. I believe that he will get his full rookie contract to prove himself and the Bills will make a decision on him at that point. 

 

No issue with your post, but I just don't know I see the inspiration for the  "big games" comment.  In 30 career games:

  • He has never had a 100 yard game.  
  • He has also broken 70 yards just twice.  
  • He has had under 40 yards in 22 of his career 30 games (including 10 times in 2018 as a 16 game starter).
  • He's only had more than 6 catches in a game once. 
  • He has only had more than 5 catches in a game 5 times.
  • 9 career TD's isn't terrible, however 4 of them (almost half) came in both games against the lowly Dolphins this year. 

So not really seeing the big game potential from him.  And he hasn't really shown the ability to make plays.  He has lost us games because of his inability to make the play and also bobbled some other important catches that should have been routine.  

 

He can still keep getting better, and I will root for him too.  My bold prediction is not about not liking him, its rooted in believing that Beane is adding at least 2 more WRs after already adding Duke.  And if Zay isn't finding a way to separate himself and looking at being in a limited role in 2019, I think Beane will trade him before that limited role diminishes his value further.  

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27 minutes ago, Rico said:

If they determine he isn’t worthy of a spot, then I think Zay will be gone. Unlike past regimes, these guys so far have not been afraid to admit mistakes,  cut their losses, and move on. :thumbsup:

 

This is exactly where my gut feeling comes from.  They will make what they feel is the best decision for the team, not make decisions over concern of looking like they made a mistake.  And really, its not a "they" in regards to Zay since Beane wasn't even here yet.  

 

I hope Zay gets there, nothing personal against him.  My thing is that when you have a young WR you can usually point to things they do really well and things they need to improve on to get to the next level.  I cant point to anything today that I could honestly say Zay does really well.  

 

I hope he reads this and goes out and proves me wrong, but its been 2 years and I am still searching for something I can say he does really well.  

13 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

Haven’t read the entire thread so apologies if this is a repeat. I have stayed in multiple WR discussions about the length of time it takes for WR’s to come into their own. His includes hall of famers. 

 

Zay will I’ll have a long leash, as he should. 

 

No worries, and I understand.  The difference here is, we are going to rebuild our whole WR room.  Normally you got a young guy and some established quality WR's or better on the team allowing you to be more patient.  

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I’d be disappointed if he’s top 2 on the depth chart, I’d be shocked if he’s 7th or lower though.

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Eric Moulds, Year 1 and 2

Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Rush Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Touch Y/Tch YScm RRTD Fmb AV
1996 23 BUF KR/wr 80 16 5 37 20 279 14.0 2 47 1.3 17.4 54.1% 12 44 0 11 3.7 2.8 0.8 32 10.1 323 2 1 3
1997 24 BUF KR/WR 80 16 8 52 29 294 10.1 0 32 1.8 18.4 55.8%

 

Zay Jones, Year 1 and 2

  Games Receiving Rushing Total Yds      
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Rush Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Touch Y/Tch YScm RRTD Fmb AV
2017 22 BUF WR 11 15 10 74 27 316 11.7 2 33 1.8 21.1 36.5%               27 11.7 316 2 0 3
2018 23 BUF WR 11 16 15 102 56 652 11.6 7 57 3.5 40.8

54.9%

 

 

Eric Moulds, Year 3.

1998* 25 BUF WR 80 16 15 116 67 1368 20.4 9 84 4.2 85.5 57

 

Yes, I know, 2 different players.  My point is that you don't cut a guy on year 2 of a rookie contract because there is a learning curve for WRs and year 3 is often when it "clicks" and you get to see the player's true potential.  

 

I'll give it one more year and hope for the best. 

 

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I'm expecting people to be underwhelmed by the new wr corp.

Jones will be near the top of that group.

Teams that don't believe in #1 wr's probably don't use a 1st round pick on one.

 

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2 minutes ago, ChicagoRic said:

Eric Moulds, Year 1 and 2

Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Rush Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Touch Y/Tch YScm RRTD Fmb AV
1996 23 BUF KR/wr 80 16 5 37 20 279 14.0 2 47 1.3 17.4 54.1% 12 44 0 11 3.7 2.8 0.8 32 10.1 323 2 1 3
1997 24 BUF KR/WR 80 16 8 52 29 294 10.1 0 32 1.8 18.4 55.8%

 

Zay Jones, Year 1 and 2

  Games Receiving Rushing Total Yds      
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Rush Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Touch Y/Tch YScm RRTD Fmb AV
2017 22 BUF WR 11 15 10 74 27 316 11.7 2 33 1.8 21.1 36.5%               27 11.7 316 2 0 3
2018 23 BUF WR 11 16 15 102 56 652 11.6 7 57 3.5 40.8

54.9%

 

 

Eric Moulds, Year 3.

1998* 25 BUF WR 80 16 15 116 67 1368 20.4 9 84 4.2 85.5 57

 

Yes, I know, 2 different players.  My point is that you don't cut a guy on year 2 of a rookie contract because there is a learning curve for WRs and year 3 is often when it "clicks" and you get to see the player's true potential.  

 

I'll give it one more year and hope for the best. 

 

I won’t cut him either.  But Moulds was sitting behind HOFers.  The last 2 years have been some of the worst group of receivers in team history.  

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I remember people saying don't re-sign Woods.  They were also wrong.

Edited by Just Joshin'

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9 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I won’t cut him either.  But Moulds was sitting behind HOFers.  The last 2 years have been some of the worst group of receivers in team history.  

 

Sitting behind 1 HOFer.  96 and 97 was Andre Reed at the tail end of his career getting the ball from a past-his prime Jim Kelly and then Todd Collins.....

 

Quinn Early, Steve Tasker (as a WR) Russell Copeland and Chris Brantley are not HOF material. 

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