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Don't expect a "true WR1" to end up in Buffalo for this year...


blacklabel

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I think I've mentioned this in some other threads but it all gets lost in the shuffle.

 

Seems almost every other day we have new threads about how badly the Bills need a number one wide receiver. I'm not saying I disagree, they certainly need some playmakers added to the receiver room, however...

 

I wouldn't hold my breath that they acquire a big-time pass catcher.

 

There are a few reasons, mostly everyone already knows the first two: there's not much in free agency and while there are a handful of receivers in the draft who *could* develop into a number one guy,  there aren't any prospects that are ready to assume that role right from the start. A trade can always happen but I doubt Beane is willing to give up too much at this point, especially after he got the short end of the stick on the KB deal.

 

But the other reason, probably the most important reason we won't see them add a guy like that is because Brian Daboll is their OC. That's not a negative comment, by the way. Daboll spent a long time in New England where Tom Brady only had a "true WR1" like, once, and that was Randy Moss. Other than that, Brady has been throwing to an assorted collection of receivers, backs and tight ends for his entire career. They always have a stable of versatile running backs that can make plays coming out of the backfield. They've usually always rolled with at least one monster a TE (Gronk) and have in past seasons added another monster TE that would be a #1 anywhere else (Martellus Bennett), and slot guys like Edelman and Welker have been their leading receivers more than a few times. Belichick has always put a lot of value in versatility. It's the reason the Pats offense is always able to morph back and forth from a pass-heavy attack to a run-heavy attack or something more balanced. Whatever defense they face, they tailor their offense to exploit weaknesses in that defense. Some teams have their schemes and it's "our guys can beat your guys" and that's that, but more and more you're seeing teams that want to have more than just one offensive identity.

 

Daboll is cut from that same cloth. He's said it since day one, that his offense would be a multi-faceted unit capable of switching gears based upon their opponent. And McDermott, like Belichick, is another coach who values versatility. 

 

I'm not saying that they'll never have an established go-to receiver, but I don't expect it in 2019 just given the circumstances. Really, I'd expect them to add pieces to every offensive skill group; backs, receivers and tight ends. Again, Daboll worked with Gronk, and then you have McBeane who are following the formula they used in Carolina where they had Greg Olsen. On the bright side, while the draft isn't very deep for receivers, it's shaping up to be pretty good for tight ends, so maybe McBeane finds his own Greg Olsen there. 

 

Overall, I expect them to follow the same type of formula outlined above and honestly, it's a proven method that shows you can win without a big-time WR. 

Edited by blacklabel
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I have said a few times lately that the concept of a #1 QB is overrated, but I think Daboll would welcome an upgrade or two at the WR position.  I want guys who can get open and catch the ball.  Whether or not that earns somebody a label of #1 receiver, I don't much care.

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Okay.  I feel like you’re making a lot of assumptions here.  Who’s to say that a DK Metcalf or N’Keal Harry couldn’t immediately step in and be our best WR?  I kinda get the Daboll thing, but he was never responsible for personnel decisions in NE.  BB made all those calls.  Who’s to say what he will do now that he may have some “clout?”

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That may have been their tactic heading into this season with a rookie and unproven Peterman.  The strategy may be rethought now that they know what they have in Allen and what is best for his future development.  As I've (and many others) said before, getting a top flight TE is much more important than a #1 WR at this point.

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They might, Johnny, and I wouldn't mind if Buffalo drafted one of them and it did happen.  Where I think the whole concept is overrated is in the whole process of a QB reading defenses and deciding where to throw the ball.  Sometimes when a QB is not as skilled in reading defenses as one would like, he will tend to "lock on" to his #1 guy and force the throw, even if other receivers are more open.  I would rather my QB have the ability to makes reads and enough confidence in most if not all of his receivers so that a defensive strategy of taking away the #1 receiver cannot work.

12 minutes ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

Okay.  I feel like you’re making a lot of assumptions here.  Who’s to say that a DK Metcalf or N’Keal Harry couldn’t immediately step in and be our best WR?  I kinda get the Daboll thing, but he was never responsible for personnel decisions in NE.  BB made all those calls.  Who’s to say what he will do now that he may have some “clout?”

 

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Sign one of either Tate or Tyrell.  Then also sign Humphries.  Enter draft with:

 

WR1 - Tate/Tyrell

WR2 - Foster

WR3 - Humphries (in a Kupp type role, could also compete for #2 spot)

WR4 - Zay (lets see how he shakes out when competing against better WR's for his roster spot)

WR5 - McKenzie (depth and ST guy)

 

This is a deep WR class once you get outside the first 15 picks.  We now have no pressure to go WR in the early rounds unless there is a guy they love.  We can now maybe look at a guy like Fant or one of the other TEs in rounds 1 through 3, especially since this isnt a good FA year for TE.  Also focus on OL and other needs early too.  

 

Go out and also bring in some vets on the OL and sign a RB like Ingram or another quality vet to share the load with McCoy next year...and BOOM, divisional crown is a real possibility and we could be a dangerous team next year.  

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3 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

They might, Johnny, and I wouldn't mind if Buffalo drafted one of them and it did happen.  Where I think the whole concept is overrated is in the whole process of a QB reading defenses and deciding where to throw the ball.  Sometimes when a QB is not as skilled in reading defenses as one would like, he will tend to "lock on" to his #1 guy and force the throw, even if other receivers are more open.  I would rather my QB have the ability to makes reads and enough confidence in most if not all of his receivers so that a defensive strategy of taking away the #1 receiver cannot work.

 

 

So having an elite WR is a bad thing?

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If they can't get a WR, I hope they add more diversity to the backfield.

 

I kinda like the idea of them having a bruiser that can wear down a front 7, bring them in, and maybe force the D to keep some bigger, slower guys on the field...opening up the passing game a bit.

This guy caught my eye, and might be available in the later rounds or even as an UDFA

 

 

 

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Just now, Johnny Hammersticks said:

 

So having an elite WR is a bad thing?

Not at all, but an elite WR combined with a somewhat less competent QB can lead to vulnerabilities on offense.  If you've got an elite WR and QB, you're going to be fine.  If you can only have one, you're almost certainly better off with the elite QB and a group of decent WRs.

3 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

We might already have one in Foster...look at how his numbers stack up against the rest of the NFL since week 10:

 

 

He might become an elite WR.

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Why can’t we aspire for our team to have the WR Corp so good it’s like there are multiple #1s?? 

 

Whats wrong with Woods/Kupp/Cooks line up or Thielen /Diggs or AB/JuJu.... etc. 

 

Fast guys with great hands, big catch radii, good at separating, etc!!  We want it all!!

 

5 minutes ago, dwight in philly said:

I know this is purely hypothetical.. and unrealistic. but as i sit drinking beer watching the Red Zone. i find myself wondering what it would be like to have Mike Evans..;  maybe cost a first round pick.. 

 

He might be the best of that class. Might be worth it

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Ever since Tom Brady took Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney to the AFC Title Game, I have tended to believe you don't need a superstar WR to be a Playoff team. 

 

When I watch the Playoffs, I think they tend to boil down to Quarterback play and Defense. 

 

So I think its important that the Bills improve the depth, but chasing a true #1 who is "open when he's not open" has not been a fruitful venture for the Bills in the last 5 years. 

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1 hour ago, blacklabel said:

I think I've mentioned this in some other threads but it all gets lost in the shuffle.

 

Seems almost every other day we have new threads about how badly the Bills need a number one wide receiver. I'm not saying I disagree, they certainly need some playmakers added to the receiver room, however...

 

I wouldn't hold my breath that they acquire a big-time pass catcher.

 

There are a few reasons, mostly everyone already knows the first two: there's not much in free agency and while there are a handful of receivers in the draft who *could* develop into a number one guy,  there aren't any prospects that are ready to assume that role right from the start. A trade can always happen but I doubt Beane is willing to give up too much at this point, especially after he got the short end of the stick on the KB deal.

 

But the other reason, probably the most important reason we won't see them add a guy like that is because Brian Daboll is their OC. That's not a negative comment, by the way. Daboll spent a long time in New England where Tom Brady only had a "true WR1" like, once, and that was Randy Moss. Other than that, Brady has been throwing to an assorted collection of receivers, backs and tight ends for his entire career. They always have a stable of versatile running backs that can make plays coming out of the backfield. They've usually always rolled with at least one monster a TE (Gronk) and have in past seasons added another monster TE that would be a #1 anywhere else (Martellus Bennett), and slot guys like Edelman and Welker have been their leading receivers more than a few times. Belichick has always put a lot of value in versatility. It's the reason the Pats offense is always able to morph back and forth from a pass-heavy attack to a run-heavy attack or something more balanced. Whatever defense they face, they tailor their offense to exploit weaknesses in that defense. Some teams have their schemes and it's "our guys can beat your guys" and that's that, but more and more you're seeing teams that want to have more than just one offensive identity.

 

Daboll is cut from that same cloth. He's said it since day one, that his offense would be a multi-faceted unit capable of switching gears based upon their opponent. And McDermott, like Belichick, is another coach who values versatility. 

 

I'm not saying that they'll never have an established go-to receiver, but I don't expect it in 2019 just given the circumstances. Really, I'd expect them to add pieces to every offensive skill group; backs, receivers and tight ends. Again, Daboll worked with Gronk, and then you have McBeane who are following the formula they used in Carolina where they had Greg Olsen. On the bright side, while the draft isn't very deep for receivers, it's shaping up to be pretty good for tight ends, so maybe McBeane finds his own Greg Olsen there. 

 

Overall, I expect them to follow the same type of formula outlined above and honestly, it's a proven method that shows you can win without a big-time WR. 

Actually, I'm not sure I care if they ever get a "true" #1.

 

I agree with what you said, and not just because Daboll is the OC.  I think if you look around league, real success in the league is rarely determined by having a "true" #1 wide receiver.   They're nice to have, but not essential.   

 

Seattle doesn't have a "true" #1.  Arizona did and never won.  Atlanta does and never won.  Cincinatti.  Detroit.  Houston.   Moss only won with Belichick (or did the Giants beat them that year?).. 

 

I don't think that lesson is lost on McBeane.  They're building a team, not a collection of talented players.   

 

Add to that the fact that "true" #1 wide receivers sometimes (and more than most other positions) are prima donnas.  Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown are the latest examples.  That's also a no no in McBeane land.  

 

McBeane are going to keep getting the best players that fit what they're doing.  If a "true" #1 comes along with the character, determination and competitiveness that they're looking for, they'll grab him.  A HInes Ward (not a #1), an Andre Reed (not really a true #1), a Larry Fitzgerald.   But until that guy comes along, Allen will be throwing to guys many people here won't like.  

 

Look at Minnesota.  Look at the Rams.  Look at the Chiefs.   

 

One of the dumbest comments we on TV these days is "So-and-so has completed passes to NINE different receivers today."  They say it like it's a big deal and it shows how So-and-so sees the field, etc.   It's baloney.   Offenses are DESIGNED to spread the ball around.   They take advantage of mismatches all over the field, and they don't throw a lot to the #1 because the #1 gets doubled a lot.   

 

"True" #1 wideouts are overrated in terms of building a winner.   Love to have one, no doubt, but they just aren't that important.   Stud left tackle is more important.   A stud GUARD may be more important.  A stud center definitely is.   And three or four guys on the defense are more important.  

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33 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

They will draft two and sign another in Free Agency..

 

I don’t know what else they can reasonably be expected to do..

 

 

Yes.  I think they draft a TE also.  Rounds 2 to 4 should get some decent options with upside.  

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41 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Ever since Tom Brady took Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney to the AFC Title Game, I have tended to believe you don't need a superstar WR to be a Playoff team. 

 

When I watch the Playoffs, I think they tend to boil down to Quarterback play and Defense. 

 

So I think its important that the Bills improve the depth, but chasing a true #1 who is "open when he's not open" has not been a fruitful venture for the Bills in the last 5 years. 

 

agreed.   I said in an earlier post somewhere, look the Eagles and Bears.  They have some good receivers who get open (like we do) but they don't have a 1000 yard WR (Ertz the tight end had a monster year)

 

We will be fine getting one more good college WR, one TE and then all big boys on both sides of the line.   Maybe a LB.

 

Beane says drafting for need can hurt a team, and he's probably sticking to that which means very likely he does DLine in the first.

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Dunno but it sure would be nice to see a Bills player routinely winning 1 on 1 opportunities or making contested catches a routine thing.  Last guy who seemingly got open in big situations was Stevie J.  Last guy who plain out roasted dbs was Moulds  Bills have never had a TE like that

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1 hour ago, wiskibreth said:

I like that Humphreys kid from Tampa Bay. Kid catches balls. Gets better every year.  I think he can be a Beasley/Welker/Edleman type in this offense.    I'd also Draft one.

Humphries would be a nice edition especially if we could get him at a reasonable price. Then draft one of the top tight ends and another wr in middle rounds. I would not mind if they got a second tight end in the draft this year as it appears to be pretty deep. 

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2 hours ago, blacklabel said:

I think I've mentioned this in some other threads but it all gets lost in the shuffle.

 

Seems almost every other day we have new threads about how badly the Bills need a number one wide receiver. I'm not saying I disagree, they certainly need some playmakers added to the receiver room, however...

 

I wouldn't hold my breath that they acquire a big-time pass catcher.

 

There are a few reasons, mostly everyone already knows the first two: there's not much in free agency and while there are a handful of receivers in the draft who *could* develop into a number one guy,  there aren't any prospects that are ready to assume that role right from the start. A trade can always happen but I doubt Beane is willing to give up too much at this point, especially after he got the short end of the stick on the KB deal.

 

But the other reason, probably the most important reason we won't see them add a guy like that is because Brian Daboll is their OC. That's not a negative comment, by the way. Daboll spent a long time in New England where Tom Brady only had a "true WR1" like, once, and that was Randy Moss. Other than that, Brady has been throwing to an assorted collection of receivers, backs and tight ends for his entire career. They always have a stable of versatile running backs that can make plays coming out of the backfield. They've usually always rolled with at least one monster a TE (Gronk) and have in past seasons added another monster TE that would be a #1 anywhere else (Martellus Bennett), and slot guys like Edelman and Welker have been their leading receivers more than a few times. Belichick has always put a lot of value in versatility. It's the reason the Pats offense is always able to morph back and forth from a pass-heavy attack to a run-heavy attack or something more balanced. Whatever defense they face, they tailor their offense to exploit weaknesses in that defense. Some teams have their schemes and it's "our guys can beat your guys" and that's that, but more and more you're seeing teams that want to have more than just one offensive identity.

 

Daboll is cut from that same cloth. He's said it since day one, that his offense would be a multi-faceted unit capable of switching gears based upon their opponent. And McDermott, like Belichick, is another coach who values versatility. 

 

I'm not saying that they'll never have an established go-to receiver, but I don't expect it in 2019 just given the circumstances. Really, I'd expect them to add pieces to every offensive skill group; backs, receivers and tight ends. Again, Daboll worked with Gronk, and then you have McBeane who are following the formula they used in Carolina where they had Greg Olsen. On the bright side, while the draft isn't very deep for receivers, it's shaping up to be pretty good for tight ends, so maybe McBeane finds his own Greg Olsen there. 

 

Overall, I expect them to follow the same type of formula outlined above and honestly, it's a proven method that shows you can win without a big-time WR. 

So you don't see Beane attempting to make a trade for a number 1 guy? There might not be a whole lot in free agency and a rookie might not make an immediate impact but I don't see why Beane wouldn't look into making a trade for a top notch receiver

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2 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

Okay.  I feel like you’re making a lot of assumptions here.  Who’s to say that a DK Metcalf or N’Keal Harry couldn’t immediately step in and be our best WR?  I kinda get the Daboll thing, but he was never responsible for personnel decisions in NE.  BB made all those calls.  Who’s to say what he will do now that he may have some “clout?”

 

I said at the very beginning that one of these prospects could turn out to be a big time receiver, but as of right now the wide receivers in this draft aren't in the same class as guys that often come to mind when you think of a #1 receiver. 

 

And my point on Daboll was that he's going to carry over some of the things he learned in New England and one of the things he learned there was that you don't need a premiere wide receiver to win.

 

Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans... all those dudes are sitting on the couch.  The whole idea is that a "true #1 WR" doesn't make or break a team.

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2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Sign one of either Tate or Tyrell.  Then also sign Humphries.  Enter draft with:

 

WR1 - Tate/Tyrell

WR2 - Foster

WR3 - Humphries (in a Kupp type role, could also compete for #2 spot)

WR4 - Zay (lets see how he shakes out when competing against better WR's for his roster spot)

WR5 - McKenzie (depth and ST guy)

 

This is a deep WR class once you get outside the first 15 picks.  We now have no pressure to go WR in the early rounds unless there is a guy they love.  We can now maybe look at a guy like Fant or one of the other TEs in rounds 1 through 3, especially since this isnt a good FA year for TE.  Also focus on OL and other needs early too.  

 

Go out and also bring in some vets on the OL and sign a RB like Ingram or another quality vet to share the load with McCoy next year...and BOOM, divisional crown is a real possibility and we could be a dangerous team next year.  

I really love the athleticism of Fant and I believe he is the type of TE that is perfect for Allen, particularly if the team keeps adding speed at the WR position. 

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It helps in NE that they have the best QB of all time, but you don’t need Randy Moss (when he’s in the mood to try). You need a number of competent options in all the skill positions. Guys who can separate, compete and hold onto the ball. We will be adding talent, and we can hope one becomes a HOF player, but it’s not necessary. 

Edited by Augie
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3 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

I really love the athleticism of Fant and I believe he is the type of TE that is perfect for Allen, particularly if the team keeps adding speed at the WR position. 

 

Yeah I think Fant would be an ideal guy to draft, and I would love to see us do a small trade down and pick up more draft assets and take him.  BUT...that is assuming we shored up WR in Free Agency, especially with guys who can go deep and get the ball.  If we say signed just one solid WR, then I would still prefer to go WR in the first at that point and target one of the other TEs maybe in the 2nd or 3rd.  Its imperative we get guys who can both get deep and also go get the ball and catch it.  Allen is too big of a weapon to not have that dimension to our offense.  

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If we don't acquire 2 or 3 WRs markedly better than what we have now, I would expect our futile passing game to continue.  We will never have a very good team or a good passing game or an effective QB until we get some studs at WR IMHO.  Look at who Jimbo had ...

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1 hour ago, Augie said:

It helps in NE that the have the best QB of all time, but you don’t need Randy Moss (when he’s in the mood to try). You need a number of competent options in all the skill positions. Guys who can separate, compete and hold onto the ball. We will be adding talent, and we can hope one becomes a HOF player, but it’s not necessary. 

Ive said for a long time that moss couldve been the hands down best wr in the game if he wanted to/ had the right attitude.   

 

with that said, besides the deep balls to foster and occasionally mckenzie, thats what we were lacking.  we know benjamin was a snail running his routes.  zay came on towards the end of the year and showed promise.  i just want a receiver like Deandre hopkins, who is blanket covered but can still make a contested catch.  i feel like its been forever since we had a guy who no matter what you threw the ball his way and you can count on him to come down with it

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4 hours ago, GG said:

That may have been their tactic heading into this season with a rookie and unproven Peterman.  The strategy may be rethought now that they know what they have in Allen and what is best for his future development.  As I've (and many others) said before, getting a top flight TE is much more important than a #1 WR at this point.

Two TEs actually ,whom need defending might be something he would enjoy ?


 

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40 minutes ago, Moulds_80 said:

i just want a receiver like Deandre hopkins, who is blanket covered but can still make a contested catch.  i feel like its been forever since we had a guy who no matter what you threw the ball his way and you can count on him to come down with

 

I agree 110% this is what we need. 

 

We had 2 guys pretty much like that but let them go.  Sammy and Woods.  We need guys like that or better.

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2 hours ago, Augie said:

It helps in NE that they have the best QB of all time, but you don’t need Randy Moss (when he’s in the mood to try). You need a number of competent options in all the skill positions. Guys who can separate, compete and hold onto the ball. We will be adding talent, and we can hope one becomes a HOF player, but it’s not necessary. 

you are onto something.

it is a great example of how to win each week.
able to play to your opponent's weaknesses.
Multi faceted skill players does that for you.

such as when Bill B ran all day against us. and then can turn around and throw 45 times the next week.

2 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

Bill's need 3 WRs either 2 from FA 1 draft 2nd+ round. Or 2 WRs draft 1+ round and 1 FA.

and what type of receivers might you wish for ?

1 hour ago, reddogblitz said:

If we don't acquire 2 or 3 WRs markedly better than what we have now, I would expect our futile passing game to continue.  We will never have a very good team or a good passing game or an effective QB until we get some studs at WR IMHO.  Look at who Jimbo had ...

well. it should not be too hard to do.
 but i feel it will be a composition of things.
O Line. Coaching, and some  guys Allen can trust.
Foster is likely one and Zay is the other. beyond that..

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4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Sign one of either Tate or Tyrell.  Then also sign Humphries.  Enter draft with:

 

WR1 - Tate/Tyrell

WR2 - Foster

WR3 - Humphries (in a Kupp type role, could also compete for #2 spot)

WR4 - Zay (lets see how he shakes out when competing against better WR's for his roster spot)

WR5 - McKenzie (depth and ST guy)

 

This is a deep WR class once you get outside the first 15 picks.  We now have no pressure to go WR in the early rounds unless there is a guy they love.  We can now maybe look at a guy like Fant or one of the other TEs in rounds 1 through 3, especially since this isnt a good FA year for TE.  Also focus on OL and other needs early too.  

 

Go out and also bring in some vets on the OL and sign a RB like Ingram or another quality vet to share the load with McCoy next year...and BOOM, divisional crown is a real possibility and we could be a dangerous team next year.  

Tyrell Williams would cost & produce the same as Tate but so much younger. I still think T. Williams would be a perfect #2 guy and we'd have to draft a TE as our #1 receiver.  We just can't get everything this spring.  It will take 19 & 20. Fant would be a huge pu if he fell to the 2nd round?

Edited by LABILLBACKER
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