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2019 NFL Draft: Bills officially picking 9th


Virgil

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6 minutes ago, Zebrastripes said:

If the BPA is a QB the phone will be ringing off the hook with trade offers.

with possibly 4 teams drafting ahead of us that could potentially be in the market for a QB, i wouldn't  put much faith in the BPA at 10 being anything close to a QB.

Edited by Foxx
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3 minutes ago, Zebrastripes said:

How so?

Because I think what really happens is teams rate prospects and put them into tiers. 

 

So if a Safety is a 7.6 this year and an OT is a 7.5 they fall into the same band and the Bills would take the OT. 

 

I think teams group similarly graded players and then pick from need out of that group. 

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6 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Because I think what really happens is teams rate prospects and put them into tiers. 

 

So if a Safety is a 7.6 this year and an OT is a 7.5 they fall into the same band and the Bills would take the OT. 

 

I think teams group similarly graded players and then pick from need out of that group. 

I agree with that.

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17 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

So take the less talented player because it's a need. What a terrible way to draft. Good thing beane said he will take BPA

That’s asinine. You aren’t going to find a difference that great between whoever you think is the best Defensive player and every single player left on offense. You do not need anything on defense and certainly not in the top 10 of a draft. You just do not take a defensive player at 10. Phrase it anyway you want. The defense is fine, if not excellent. The only work this team has done is on the defense. Enough. It’s built. Fix the disgraceful talent level on the offense. You don’t keep taking CJ Spiller when you have Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch. That’s what an idiot would do. Make the team better. There is a finite amount of assets to do so. Pushing starters to the bench will not help you. Fix the areas that are wastelands. Almost every position on offense currently is.

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Actually all these reports saying Bills picking 9th or 10th are correct because the ones saying 10th are based on all game results before IND/TEN game is concluded while the ones saying 9th is based on the assumption that IND/TEN doesn't end in a tie. At this moment (before IND/TEN game is ended), Bills' pick is 10th based on Bills having higher strength of schedule than Broncos. Currently Broncos' SOS is 133W/121L=0.5236 while Bills' SOS is 132W/120L=0.5238.

 

However, as long as IND/TEN game doesn't end in a tie, Bills' SOS then becomes 133W/121L, which is the same as Broncos. In this case, we go to the next tiebreakers and Bills in the end would get 9th pick due to worse strength of victory.

 

In other words, as long as IND/TEN game isn't a tie, Bills should get 9th pick.

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Winning today was sweet.

Dropping from 7th to 9th in the draft is worth 150 value points - the value of a mid 3rd round pick.

It was great to send Kyle off on a high note.

It was great to see Josh Allen account for 5 TDs and get to .500 as a starter.

 

 

Edited by Rock'em Sock'em
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33 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

So take the less talented player because it's a need. What a terrible way to draft. Good thing beane said he will take BPA

Let me explain something to you:  No one knows who the “best player available” is at any particular spot in the draft, especially when you are comparing, for example, a DT with a WR.  Some people might think they know, but they don’t.  And at any rate, I would argue that a really good WR is far more valuable than a great DT, especially on this team.

 

The Bills need offensive playmakers and a couple offensive linemen.  Those are the guys they need to be looking at in the first three rounds.  

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42 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Get a Center.  Move Heaven and Earth to get this team a center.  

 

I thînk getting a young veteran is best for Josh Allen. I think we go all in on Mitch Morse. There is the Andy Reid connection and others in our front office connected to KC. He's the perfect fit. I also like the kid from Wisconsin, but a young veteran really takes the pressure off of Allen. 

 

I think Paradis goes to the Jets. 

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1 hour ago, Mark Vader said:

The Raiders on the other hand, would be a great move. If the Raiders want a QB with their top pick then want another highly rated defensive player, they have the draft capital to do it.

The Bills could easily ask for the Raiders remaining top picks in the 20's, then be put in a situation where selecting both an O-Lineman & Wide Receiver would make more sense, value wise.

 

I would love this. Give me 2 lower 1st round picks in exchange for pick 9. It makes sense for the Raiders too because they have a lot of picks and they need top 10 talent on their team.

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16 minutes ago, mannc said:

Let me explain something to you:  No one knows who the “best player available” is at any particular spot in the draft, especially when you are comparing, for example, a DT with a WR.  Some people might think they know, but they don’t.  And at any rate, I would argue that a really good WR is far more valuable than a great DT, especially on this team.

 

The Bills need offensive playmakers and a couple offensive linemen.  Those are the guys they need to be looking at in the first three rounds.  

So if the next best wr is graded as a mid to late round pick by your scouts and the dt is graded out as a top 5 pick you would take the wr. That is idiotic and how you end up like the raiders

 

If nobody knows who the best players available are why do the first few rounds have a better success rate than last few?

Edited by Not at the table Karlos
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If the players grade out closely , other factors such as need come in. If a player remains on the board that you have graded much higher than the others you take him. Maybe even move up. Unless that player is an RB and it’s the first round. I’ve never loved the term BPA as it’s usually a massive oversimplification. 

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1 hour ago, Manther said:

I agree with that.

I think how teams address a glaring need is to move around the board to line that need up with BPA unless some player is rated much higher than the slot the team is in then they will likely take thay upgrade.

We did that last year with Edmonds.  

Edited by formerlyofCtown
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27 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

If the players grade out closely , other factors such as need come in. If a player remains on the board that you have graded much higher than the others you take him. Maybe even move up. Unless that player is an RB and it’s the first round. I’ve never loved the term BPA as it’s usually a massive oversimplification. 

 Yes! I have made this point several times in the past but you do it more succinctly . Thank you. It’s a sliding scale. Need, all other things  considered, does, indeed, factor in ...in a significant way. 

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3 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

I believe it comes down to a coin flip

 

Last time Denver picked one pick before Buffalo in the top 10 they got Von Miller, Buffalo got MD.

 

I hope we win that coin flip...

 

According to BuffaloRumblings, who said they spoke with someone at the NFL, it won't come down to a coin flip and it's officially going to be 9th

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6 minutes ago, Beach said:

this thread has had the number changed a few times, maybe the word that needs to be changed is "officially"

 

In fairness, it was originally posted as 9th. I wasn’t the one who changed it 

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18 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 Wrong...as long as the Ind/Ten  game isn't a tie we are 9

 

No, you are wrong. The NFL cannot be wrong. They are the horse's mouth.

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

 

NFL.com deleted their tweet.  So yes, they were wrong 

 

No, you are wrong. The article is still there:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001006117/article/2019-nfl-draft-order-cardinals-own-top-pick-giants-to-take-qb

3 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

In fairness, it was originally posted as 9th. I wasn’t the one who changed it 

 

But that was wrong.

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Just now, from_dunkirk said:

 

No, you are wrong. The NFL cannot be wrong. They are the horse's mouth.

 

No, you are wrong. The article is still there:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001006117/article/2019-nfl-draft-order-cardinals-own-top-pick-giants-to-take-qb

 

Let’s make a wager shall we?  Loser changes their avatar to Brady for a week?

 

And I probably am wrong.  No one seems to be able to figure it out.  But I will say this, even Denver just tweeted that they are picking 10th.....

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3 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Let’s make a wager shall we?  Loser changes their avatar to Brady for a week?

 

And I probably am wrong.  No one seems to be able to figure it out.  But I will say this, even Denver just tweeted that they are picking 10th.....

 

It's all good Virgil.  Some sites are showing the "current" standings with the current SOS and others are doing the probable.

It seems most know the SOS will change and they show the Bills at 9.

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