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Which QB is most likely to fall?


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I have a feeling, the Browns take Allen first overall and Darnold falls to #4.  This assumes the Giants take Barkely.  If Darnold is available at #4 do you move up?  I don't know.  His turnovers scare me as does the history of recent USC QB's.  

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Out of the five, history says Baker Mayfield.

 

When players fall farther than expected, it's usually because of undesirable physical traits.

With Quarterbacks, that usually means height and size. 

 

With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if all are gone before #12.

 

 

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As long as the Giants pick someone other then a QB I think both Allen and Mayfield fall. I dont think Denver picks a QB at 5, they need DB help. After them the only other team would be Miami, I cant see them taking a QB with all the cuts they've been making. 

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The success rate of 1st round quarterbacks with a college career completion % below 58% in the last two decades is awful.  Michael Vick is the exception, but he brought exceptional skills with his legs.  Josh Allen is the most likely to bust.

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17 minutes ago, Davejr511 said:

As long as the Giants pick someone other then a QB I think both Allen and Mayfield fall. I dont think Denver picks a QB at 5, they need DB help. After them the only other team would be Miami, I cant see them taking a QB with all the cuts they've been making. 

And the restructure they just gave Tanny....

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Allen. I think he’s the smokescreen all the teams are using to hide who they really want. 

 

Mayfield is my 2nd choice, but I don’t see him falling past 12. 

 

I could see all the other guys dropping to round 2

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1 hour ago, Davejr511 said:

As long as the Giants pick someone other then a QB I think both Allen and Mayfield fall. I dont think Denver picks a QB at 5, they need DB help. After them the only other team would be Miami, I cant see them taking a QB with all the cuts they've been making. 

I agree.  If the draft starts Darnold/Barkely and Denver goes with a player to win now, then the Bills can sit back and wait for pick 8 or so.  Miami is not trading up. Arizona could try to jump over the BIlls.  If Allen and Mayfield are still on the board at 6 then the Bills are set to get one of them.  

 

I want Allen.

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Remember when people had to decide between Peyton Manning and a walking headcase, and it seemed so hard? I wish I had a clue about these guys.They all scare me in some way, but one or two will probably emerge as very good long term solutions. If I got to pick one it’s Darnold, partly because of Rosen’s concussion history, and despite the TO’s. 

 

Who falls? I’d guess Allen due to accuracy. Since I’m so often wrong, he’s probably a lock for the Browns at #1. 

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3 hours ago, Dadonkadonk said:

I have a feeling, the Browns take Allen first overall and Darnold falls to #4.  This assumes the Giants take Barkely.  If Darnold is available at #4 do you move up?  I don't know.  His turnovers scare me as does the history of recent USC QB's.  

No way any GM with half a brain is taking Allen over Darnold or Rosen. Even his most fervid supporters admit his shortcomings and the need for two or more years of committed work to make him into a top starter. But because we're talking about the Browns, then, yeah, I wouldn't be completely shocked if they took Falk or Rudolph. Still, I think they take Darnold, the Giants take Barkley and the Jets take Rosen.

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On 3/18/2018 at 5:08 PM, Boatdrinks said:

Mayfield. QBs under 6" 1 don't go in top ten or even first round. Only recent example is Manziel. He'll drop, who knows how far. I think Jackson will go earlier than some predictions. 

 

I'm starting to get the same feeling. 

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2 minutes ago, McBean said:

I’d rather get kicked in the nuts.

What would you think if the Bills paid major scoots to move up to the #2 spot. Then selected Allen ( Darnold off board at 1). McDermott and Beane said " we think he's going to lead this franchise to great things" . How would you feel about this? 

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On March 18, 2018 at 5:08 PM, Boatdrinks said:

Mayfield. QBs under 6" 1 don't go in top ten or even first round. Only recent example is Manziel. He'll drop, who knows how far. I think Jackson will go earlier than some predictions. 

 

59 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I'm starting to get the same feeling. 

Right into the Bills lap!!! Watch out for Arizona trying to move up.

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1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said:

What would you think if the Bills paid major scoots to move up to the #2 spot. Then selected Allen ( Darnold off board at 1). McDermott and Beane said " we think he's going to lead this franchise to great things" . How would you feel about this? 

 

I would question their judgement because nothing about Josh Allen screams first rounder. He’s tall and has a strong arm. That’s it.

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On 3/18/2018 at 2:05 PM, Davejr511 said:

As long as the Giants pick someone other then a QB I think both Allen and Mayfield fall. I dont think Denver picks a QB at 5, they need DB help. After them the only other team would be Miami, I cant see them taking a QB with all the cuts they've been making. 

I think that this is wishful thinking.  If I were running a team with a fading 37 y.o. QB who never carried the team (Giants), I would strongly consider a QB at 2.  Likewise, if I were Denver, I would be looking for the long-term replacement for the QB signed in FA (Keenum).

On 3/18/2018 at 2:24 PM, NewDayBills said:

I want Allen more than any QB in the draft, if he doesn't fall, I want Rudolph as my plan b.

Agree on Rudolph, not as much on Allen but he (Allen) has talent for sure.

Edited by OldTimer1960
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2 hours ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Honestly I think Mayfield slips out of the top 10. My belief (and I've been wrong before) is that fans like him better than scouts/GMs do.

Yep cuz most fans like to think that shorter guys like Mayfield could be next Brees or Wilson but forget about guys like Cade McNown, Rex Grossman had struggles. As everyone loves the little engine that could but more often in the NFL it's can not.

38 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Rosen and Jackson.  I think similar to Matt Ryan his size and durabliity will be questioned.  

Ryan fell all the way to 3. I'd love to get Rosen but not sure the Giants looking to move down unless Barkley goes 1st overall.

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I think if anyone we really want is there at 4 or beyond, we're trying to move up at every spot until we find a partner or our pick is taken. And honestly, if all 4 of the top QB's are gone before we can get one, I think we should move back and pick up extra picks instead of reaching for Jackson or Rudolph at 12.

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On 3/18/2018 at 10:57 AM, BuffAlone said:

Mayfield will fall to 12 or beyond.

 

 

Wouldn't doubt it. Scouts and drafters are suckers for measurables.  As the draft gets closer they will get more and more nervous about putting their neck on the line with a short QB.

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