Andy Benoit: Should We Believe in the Buffalo Bills?

[26CornerBlitz]

Should We Believe in the Buffalo Bills?

 

The Buffalo Bills are 3-1, but what are they really made of?

 

Instead of asking if first-time head coach Sean McDermott’s 3-1 Buffalo Bills are for real, let’s ask a more pertinent question: Can McDermott’s Bills continue to win with their style of play? Buffalo’s three victories are “very real” (in pro football, almost all victories are), but they were achieved via stingy defense and an ultra-controlled offense—a combination that hasn’t produced many serious contenders since the early 2000s.

[Magox]

I'm still skeptical that it can net us better than a 10-6 record. I think that is our realistic ceiling for this year, we simply don't have the talent level and depth to match on sustained basis the best teams in the league. Next year's team will have more talent and as a result the play calling will adjust to the new infusion of talent this team will gain.

[TH3]

Should We Believe in the Buffalo Bills?

 

Instead of asking if first-time head coach Sean McDermott’s 3-1 Buffalo Bills are for real, let’s ask a more pertinent question: Can McDermott’s Bills continue to win with their style of play? Buffalo’s three victories are “very real” (in pro football, almost all victories are), but they were achieved via stingy defense and an ultra-controlled offense—a combination that hasn’t produced many serious contenders since the early 2000s.

But it has produced playoff teams...

[Acantha]

Should We Believe in the Buffalo Bills?

 

Instead of asking if first-time head coach Sean McDermott’s 3-1 Buffalo Bills are for real, let’s ask a more pertinent question: Can McDermott’s Bills continue to win with their style of play? Buffalo’s three victories are “very real” (in pro football, almost all victories are), but they were achieved via stingy defense and an ultra-controlled offense—a combination that hasn’t produced many serious contenders since the early 2000s.

He's right, especially when looking at how severely thin this team is at most positions. But...

 

But it has produced playoff teams...

That's really the key here. For the Bills (fan base), a wild card game is a Super Bowl. Consistent defense and a little luck can get them in, and that's all it takes for an outstandingly successful season.

Edited October 4, 2017 by Acantha

[starrymessenger]

Fair take imo. Assuming injuries dont derail things and MD can get his head out of his pants I think the D can hold up if they are not seeing the field all afternoon. I think AB is underappreciating Gaines and Poyer. If all of that is true and if the Bills are serious about giving it their best shot this year their fortunes will rise or fall based on the performance of the O. Unless they find some WR help they will not be nearly the team they could be. Specifically they need a sure handed good route running legitimate deep ball threat who cn develop chemistry with TT. They can only fnd that via trade (and Arizona would be a good place to knock on the door imo).

Edited October 4, 2017 by starrymessenger

[H2o]

But it has produced playoff teams...

And SB Champions. If we can ever totally get the running game on track again, the defense keeps performing at this level, and Tyrod keeps up his play then we could be more than just a team who squeaks into the playoffs for the first time in 17 years.

[Bray Wyatt]

a couple issues here, while our offense hasn't scored lots of points, we have played some really great defenses which he didn't acknowledge. He also states we have these offensive powerhouses coming up but down plays what we did to Atlanta. It seems to me he is looking for things to prove that we wont succeed imo. It doesn't mean the points he makes aren't valid, just seems to me it was written as a piece to back up what he already thought instead of using data to reach a conclusion on its own

[Kelly the Dog]

One thing we don't know yet, because Opie's has only been the head coach of four games at any level in his life (preseason doesn't count), is whether he has been playing things so close to the vest because that is what he believes and he isn't going to stray, or, does he take each game as it comes like he should and a lot of good coaches do, and the way they have played out so far have all been close so he didn't need to,open the offense up, he didn't need to blitz more or take chances more on defense, he didn't need to do anything other than play this one score style of game.

 

I'm not sure either way. He seems slightly conservative but I'm not at all convinced that this is how we are always going to play. This allegedly impossible to sustain way.

[dollars 2 donuts]

He's right, especially when looking at how severely thin this team is at most positions. But...

 

That's really the key here. For the Bills (fan base), a wild card game is a Super Bowl. Consistent defense and a little luck can get them in, and that's all it takes for an outstandingly successful season.

 

 

Agreed, and I agree with you first point, which wasn't copied in this response.

Edited October 4, 2017 by dollars 2 donuts

[Marv's Neighbor]

Belief has never been a question with me, it's the disappointment that can be difficult.

[Acantha]

a couple issues here, while our offense hasn't scored lots of points, we have played some really great defenses which he didn't acknowledge.

Current scoring defense rankings:

 

Jets: 22

Carolina: 7

Denver: 9

Atlanta: 19

 

I think those defensive rankings line up pretty well with how well our offense has performed against them. Not great news for the next two games, especially considering the loss of JM, as Cinci is #5 and Tampa is #4.

 

After that the difficulty loosens up, except our two games at the end of the season against the #2 Dolphins.

[kota]

I believe that the offense will only grow throughout the season. WE have seen strides the last few weeks already. Once Shady is going and Taylor gets more confident with his new WR's they will be better. Look for a big jump after the Bye week. They just need to get though this week with this style of football.

[boyst]

But it has produced playoff teams...

the falcons, Giants and Ravens were 3 teams that had similar attributes to what we do on the field.

The Giants super bowl D's had little respect. Most don't ever look at the D and appreciate what it can do by just sustaining itself and stopping consistent offensive production. Offensive penetration of a good d should be limited and a bend but not break type of system. We saw a bend but not break d in Atlanta.

Edited October 4, 2017 by Boyst62

[Kirby Jackson]

the falcons, Giants and Ravens were 3 teams that had similar attributes to what we do on the field.

The Giants super bowl D's had little respect. Most don't ever look at the D and appreciate what it can do by just sustaining itself and stopping consistent offensive production. Offensive penetration of a good d should be limited and a bend but not break type of system. We saw a bend but not break d in Atlanta.

They create turnovers too and rarely turn the ball over. That is an underrated aspect of this team and fits the "bend but don't break model." They make a few plays to get them off the field.

[Kelly the Dog]

They create turnovers too and rarely turn the ball over. That is an underrated aspect of this team and fits the "bend but don't break model." They make a few plays to get them off the field.

I was thinking earlier about which I would prefer. A Qb who had a 1 TD 0 INT game. Or one that had 2 TDs but 1-2 INTs. Normally I think I take the two TDs and try to weather the turnovers. With a good to great defense I think I take the 1-0 guy, which is Tyrod.

[Watkins101]

Current scoring defense rankings:

 

Jets: 22

Carolina: 7

Denver: 9

Atlanta: 19

 

I think those defensive rankings line up pretty well with how well our offense has performed against them. Not great news for the next two games, especially considering the loss of JM, as Cinci is #5 and Tampa is #4.

 

After that the difficulty loosens up, except our two games at the end of the season against the #2 Dolphins.

Who are averaging 8.3 points per game, so Im not worried about them.

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

No media assessment of the Bills @ Falcons would be complete without mentioning the loss of Jones and Sanu for the second half, especially when you consider how they torched the Bills defense in the first half.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh, wait...

[Bray Wyatt]

Current scoring defense rankings:

 

Jets: 22

Carolina: 7

Denver: 9

Atlanta: 19

 

I think those defensive rankings line up pretty well with how well our offense has performed against them. Not great news for the next two games, especially considering the loss of JM, as Cinci is #5 and Tampa is #4.

 

After that the difficulty loosens up, except our two games at the end of the season against the #2 Dolphins.

 

 

I see Cincy as #3 scoring D and tampa as #16

 

Also, our offense is based on running the ball and we have faced 3 of the top 12 teams against the run (Denver, Carolina and Atl) \\

 

Cincy is lower on the run D side at #17 whereas tampa is #5

[YoloinOhio]

They create turnovers too and rarely turn the ball over. That is an underrated aspect of this team and fits the "bend but don't break model." They make a few plays to get them off the field.

pretty much the KC model.

[Rico]

I'm still skeptical that it can net us better than a 10-6 record. I think that is our realistic ceiling for this year, we simply don't have the talent level and depth to match on sustained basis the best teams in the league. Next year's team will have more talent and as a result the play calling will adjust to the new infusion of talent this team will gain.

Agree. Playoffs this year would be spectacular, but right now Im happy that the process looks pretty solid moving into the future.

[Philly McButterpants]

Why is MMQB's talking point about McD "obnoxious" about turnovers. Should he not be that?

[Mat68]

This is the exact style Seattle utilized to win a Superbowl and multiple NFC titles. The whole this style hasn't been effective is in accurate. Brady, Brees, Rodgers, get all the press but Denver and Seattle have been involved in numerous superbowls the last 5 years. You could even put Carolina into that as well.

[Boatdrinks]

Too soon to tell. More data is needed. This style of play has produced wild card teams, but he's correct in that few have been serious contenders. Many comparisons just don't quite fit. The Chiefs for example have far more offensive firepower than the Bills do. And don't confuse " impossible " to sustain with unlikely. Takeaways can be fleeting and dry up for stretches at a time. The close to the vest offense will limit turnovers, but the lack of weapons limits opportunities. It stands to reason that the Offense will need to do more in the next few months to produce wins. It's just too soon to tell. Another road win in week 5 will bey key if the Bills are to punch their first playoff ticket since the millenium.

This is the exact style Seattle utilized to win a Superbowl and multiple NFC titles. The whole this style hasn't been effective is in accurate. Brady, Brees, Rodgers, get all the press but Denver and Seattle have been involved in numerous superbowls the last 5 years. You could even put Carolina into that as well.

 

Style is one thing. The SEA and DEN Super Bowl defenses had a lot more talent on them. No legion of boom here.

[Kirby Jackson]

I was thinking earlier about which I would prefer. A Qb who had a 1 TD 0 INT game. Or one that had 2 TDs but 1-2 INTs. Normally I think I take the two TDs and try to weather the turnovers. With a good to great defense I think I take the 1-0 guy, which is Tyrod.

That's why I said in a different thread that he's ironically a great fit as we are constructed. Long sustained drives and no turnovers with an elite defense is a winning recipe.

[Mat68]

Too soon to tell. More data is needed. This style of play has produced wild card teams, but he's correct in that few have been serious contenders. Many comparisons just don't quite fit. The Chiefs for example have far more offensive firepower than the Bills do. And don't confuse " impossible " to sustain with unlikely. Takeaways can be fleeting and dry up for stretches at a time. The close to the vest offense will limit turnovers, but the lack of weapons limits opportunities. It stands to reason that the Offense will need to do more in the next few months to produce wins. It's just too soon to tell. Another road win in week 5 will bey key if the Bills are to punch their first playoff ticket since the millenium.

 

Style is one thing. The SEA and DEN Super Bowl defenses had a lot more talent on them. No legion of boom here.

 

Not saying it is. However, top defense with ball control run heavy offense is what has won since forever. Even now. Talent and name recognition is one thing If Buffalo maintains have a top 5 defense its a mute point. Top 5 defense and a ball control offense that can make a handful of big plays is sustainable winning football. KC, Seattle, Denver, Carolina, all have been doing it for a few years now. Before the nicknames, No fly zone, Legion of Boom they were solid units.

[BobChalmers]

Current scoring defense rankings:

 

Jets: 22

Carolina: 7

Denver: 9

Atlanta: 19

 

I think those defensive rankings line up pretty well with how well our offense has performed against them. Not great news for the next two games, especially considering the loss of JM, as Cinci is #5 and Tampa is #4.

 

After that the difficulty loosens up, except our two games at the end of the season against the #2 Dolphins.

 

Cincy can't score either though - this week could very well be the Carolina game in reverse - something like Bills win 11-6 behind Haushkamatic.

 

And the Dolphins are easily the worst scoring offense in the league right now, so I feel pretty good about winning low scoring games against them.

That's why I said in a different thread that he's ironically a great fit as we are constructed. Long sustained drives and no turnovers with an elite defense is a winning recipe.

 

He'd be an even better fit if we had some good WR targets for more bombs, which he's as good as any QB in the league at launching.

Edited October 4, 2017 by BobChalmers

[Charles Romes]

Well said: the wild card game is our super bowl.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Well said: the wild card game is our super bowl.

Screw that.

 

Keep pace with NE and win one of those games and the Div could be ripe for the Bills

[dave mcbride]

 

Not saying it is. However, top defense with ball control run heavy offense is what has won since forever. Even now. Talent and name recognition is one thing If Buffalo maintains have a top 5 defense its a mute point. Top 5 defense and a ball control offense that can make a handful of big plays is sustainable winning football. KC, Seattle, Denver, Carolina, all have been doing it for a few years now. Before the nicknames, No fly zone, Legion of Boom they were solid units.

The Bills' defensive talent is leagues worse than that on Denver, Seattle, and Carolina. What's going on right now is nice, but I don't think it's sustainable. I hope i'm wrong, of course.

[billz4life820]

I am still on the fence whether the success can be sustained.... I think the offense still really needs to improve

[Boatdrinks]

Well said: the wild card game is our super bowl.

Realistically, yes. Until Brady drops off measurably or this offense shows it can put up 30 with regularity.

[billsfan60]

I believe that the offense will only grow throughout the season. WE have seen strides the last few weeks already. Once Shady is going and Taylor gets more confident with his new WR's they will be better. Look for a big jump after the Bye week. They just need to get though this week with this style of football.

Agreed. This is the defining game. Just hold the fort for one more week.

[BuffaloBill]

I disagree with his point that the Bills lack a pass rusher. This was key strength pre-Rex. Granted the line heads aged and features new players in some spots but the Bills D line was able to consistently generate pressure with a 4-3 alignment.

[26CornerBlitz]

@BuffaloBillsPR

#Shoutout: One reason for the @buffalobills 3-1 start this season is the #Bills have won the turnover battle in all three of the team's wins

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Cincy can't score either though - this week could very well be the Carolina game in reverse - something like Bills win 11-6 behind Haushkamatic.

 

And the Dolphins are easily the worst scoring offense in the league right now, so I feel pretty good about winning low scoring games against them.

 

 

He'd be an even better fit if we had some good WR targets for more bombs, which he's as good as any QB in the league at launching.

I wholeheartedly agree.

[Wayne Arnold]

No.

 

Not unless the offense gets better and McDermott starts to trust them by ending his head-scratching (mostly conservative) game management decisions. (Kicking FG from the 1, three straight runs before trusting his kicker to make a 50+ yard FG.)

This is the exact style Seattle utilized to win a Superbowl and multiple NFC titles. The whole this style hasn't been effective is in accurate. Brady, Brees, Rodgers, get all the press but Denver and Seattle have been involved in numerous superbowls the last 5 years. You could even put Carolina into that as well.

 

Not true at all. Those Seattle teams were extremely efficient on offense.

Edited October 4, 2017 by Wayne Arnold

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Shaq has looked pretty solid IMO... and Yarbrough really brings it off the bench. I'm more concerned about LB depth than DE depth tbh.

[blacklabel]

I disagree with his point that the Bills lack a pass rusher. This was key strength pre-Rex. Granted the line heads aged and features new players in some spots but the Bills D line was able to consistently generate pressure with a 4-3 alignment.

 

I like reading Benoit's stuff but I also disagreed with his take on the pass rusher situation. Hughes has been lights out and Lawson is coming along. Yarborough provides solid depth. Plus, all but Mario Williams are still on the line that set franchise records in sacks in 2013 and 2014. I hope they start getting more production from Dareus soon, but yeah, I think they're alright with pass rushers.

[Acantha]

 

 

I see Cincy as #3 scoring D and tampa as #16

Just checked NFL.com again and they say it's 4 and 5. I dunno.

 

 

Cincy can't score either though - this week could very well be the Carolina game in reverse - something like Bills win 11-6 behind Haushkamatic.

 

And the Dolphins are easily the worst scoring offense in the league right now, so I feel pretty good about winning low scoring games against them.

Based on performances so far, I expect 3 wins there. But I'm not worried about this Defense handling anyone's offense outside of Brady. Good or bad on that side of the ball is one thing, but if we're as awful at moving the ball as we were against Carolina (against these two higher rated defenses) it's still going to be tough going. If Glenn comes back it will help.

[BobbyC81]

I see Cincy as #3 scoring D and tampa as #16

 

Also, our offense is based on running the ball and we have faced 3 of the top 12 teams against the run (Denver, Carolina and Atl) \\

 

Cincy is lower on the run D side at #17 whereas tampa is #5

And after Tampa plays the Pats this week, their scoring defense should be even lower.