eball Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Vote for your prediction and explain why...let's see how many of us get it right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweats Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 The price is going to be too steep to trade within the top 10, maybe even the 11-20 range........i could see a move up a couple of spots within 20, but i think he'll stay at 28, let the board fall to him and carry on......IMO. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Early 20s. Its his MO. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benderbender Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Trade all our picks for a vet Wednesday night so we have nothing to watch Thursday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 (edited) I voted trade to Top 10 (I'm thinking #9 Bears and Rome Odunze), but I admit that will take a lot and I'm biased. We Could also see early 20s and Brian Thomas, Adonai Mitchell, or Worthy. I think Franklin or Ledette come to them later. Edited April 23 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 I think he fights his normal urges and makes a small move back. I really think he's bugged by the fact that he counted on having that 3rd round comp pick and it became a 4th instead. I think (no proof...just hunch) that it's been eating away at him and he wants into that 3rd round where some good value can be found. I look for him to make a deal and slide back to the 30-40 range and pick up a late 3rd. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregg Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Stay at #28. Maybe he trades up if player he likes starts to fall on the draft board but otherwise, I think he stays at #28 and takes a WR. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbitmic Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 He'll move up two or three spots to pick Chop Mayb ... I mean Robinson. In the 2nd they'll move up a few spots again and take Walker the WR from NC. Then they'll try to get back into the 4th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
behind a post WMS69 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 I think it's quite possible someone he loves slips and he pulls the trigger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 I think they'll either stay at 28 or trade up a few a spots. I think the pick will be one of this group...Laiatu Latu, Cooper Dejean, Ladd McConkey, Xavier Worthy and Troy Franklin. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptnCoke11 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 (edited) Hopefully they can find a trade partner 33-37 in that range. Maybe a team desperate enough will give up their 3rd if we throw in a later round pick in the trade down. Edited April 23 by CaptnCoke11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 I’ve had this weird feeling that they were going into the top 10 for a while. I thought that when Diggs was here. If I thought it then, I can’t change now that the need is greater. I can’t shake Beane press conference when he talked about how “he would love a Ja’marr Chase but hopes to never finish bad enough to draft one.” To me, I think that he looks at it as, “swing big on a star WR” and avoid paying that giant bill for 5 years. You can allocate that savings, moving forward to pass rush or whatever. The rising cost of elite receivers makes this the right time to swing big. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Stay at 28. Take BPA (if it happens to be a DE, OL or CB...so be it.) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 I’d guess we trade up. I think somewhere in the 17-23 range is most likely so I voted for the earlier option of the two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweats Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: I’ve had this weird feeling that they were going into the top 10 for a while. I thought that when Diggs was here. If I thought it then, I can’t change now that the need is greater. I can’t shake Beane press conference when he talked about how “he would love a Ja’marr Chase but hopes to never finish bad enough to draft one.” To me, I think that he looks at it as, “swing big on a star WR” and avoid paying that giant bill for 5 years. You can allocate that savings, moving forward to pass rush or whatever. The rising cost of elite receivers makes this the right time to swing big. What you're saying makes sense, however, Beanes' stated philosophy is to build through the draft every year and you can't do that by blowing your load on one player, leaving very little draft capital left to address other concerns. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsPride12 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 16 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: I’ve had this weird feeling that they were going into the top 10 for a while. I thought that when Diggs was here. If I thought it then, I can’t change now that the need is greater. I can’t shake Beane press conference when he talked about how “he would love a Ja’marr Chase but hopes to never finish bad enough to draft one.” To me, I think that he looks at it as, “swing big on a star WR” and avoid paying that giant bill for 5 years. You can allocate that savings, moving forward to pass rush or whatever. The rising cost of elite receivers makes this the right time to swing big. But does he have the ammo to trade up that high? I know he would love to do it but I don't know if he has the means. I think realistically he trades up but more around 18 to early 20's range Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Einstein's Dog Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 I'm thinking the usual small move up, this time for X Worthy. I think the elite speed element (with production at a top level school) offers something unique. The move up is because of the perceived threat of KC thinking the same thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 6 minutes ago, BillsPride12 said: But does he have the ammo to trade up that high? I know he would love to do it but I don't know if he has the means. I think realistically he trades up but more around 18 to early 20's range It won’t be cheap but, realistically, something like 28, 60, 144, ‘25 1st & ‘25 2nd (preferably ours) would seem like enough. The Bills could still use those 4ths, 5ths, etc… to fill out the depth on the DL & secondary. They’d still have an early 2nd next year (at least in theory). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsPride12 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: It won’t be cheap but, realistically, something like 28, 60, 144, ‘25 1st & ‘25 2nd (preferably ours) would seem like enough. The Bills could still use those 4ths, 5ths, etc… to fill out the depth on the DL & secondary. They’d still have an early 2nd next year (at least in theory). I would love to trade up and get one of the premium receiver's but I hate the thought of giving up that much capital as we still have a few other holes that need to be addressed. Either way it's going to be a really interesting draft this year. I'm excited 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpberr Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 I picked a trade up to 11-20 (for Cooper Dejean). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted April 23 Author Share Posted April 23 37 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: I’ve had this weird feeling that they were going into the top 10 for a while. I thought that when Diggs was here. If I thought it then, I can’t change now that the need is greater. I can’t shake Beane press conference when he talked about how “he would love a Ja’marr Chase but hopes to never finish bad enough to draft one.” To me, I think that he looks at it as, “swing big on a star WR” and avoid paying that giant bill for 5 years. You can allocate that savings, moving forward to pass rush or whatever. The rising cost of elite receivers makes this the right time to swing big. Interesting. I think the ONLY time it makes sense to make that kind of a move for a WR is if you already have a franchise QB...which of course the Bills do. You get the stud receiver "on the cheap" for at least three years...then rinse, wash, repeat. I think I'd be down with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 He almost always trades up like 2-3 spots for absolutely no reason. Remember when he traded up for Elam because we just had to have him? That was fun. I'd expect a trade to 22-25 just because 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Boy Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 My guess is he stays. My hope is he doesn’t trade away the farm for a crazy move up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 I still have a bad feeling that if Cooper DeJean is on the board at 28, McD shouts down any WR talk, and the Bills draft DeJean. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 1 hour ago, GunnerBill said: Early 20s. It’s his MO. Yup, this was my vote and what I had in my last mock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in Chicago Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 48 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: I’ve had this weird feeling that they were going into the top 10 for a while. I thought that when Diggs was here. If I thought it then, I can’t change now that the need is greater. I can’t shake Beane press conference when he talked about how “he would love a Ja’marr Chase but hopes to never finish bad enough to draft one.” To me, I think that he looks at it as, “swing big on a star WR” and avoid paying that giant bill for 5 years. You can allocate that savings, moving forward to pass rush or whatever. The rising cost of elite receivers makes this the right time to swing big. You estimate is that the WR room is bottom 3 right now. I honestly dont know the WR qualities of about 15 teams so I cant challenge nor agree with you. However, I took a swag at estimating the WR room quality in different scenarios. Do you agree? Draft one of big 3 + vet addition Top 5 Draft one of big 3 + another in Rd 4 Top 5 Draft 1A tier (BT Jr) + vet addition Top 10 Draft 1A tier (BT Jr) + another in Rd 4 Top 10 (maybe) Draft 2nd tier and any one else Middle of the road Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: It won’t be cheap but, realistically, something like 28, 60, 144, ‘25 1st & ‘25 2nd (preferably ours) would seem like enough. The Bills could still use those 4ths, 5ths, etc… to fill out the depth on the DL & secondary. They’d still have an early 2nd next year (at least in theory). I don't *think* this will happen, but given the Vikings overall roster, which is pretty good, I could see them possibly going 10-7 and I think it's in the realm of possibility that the Bills end up in the same place. I guess all I'm saying is that I wouldn't assume 100 percent that the Vikings will be bad and that their pick will be better. Darnold isn't great, but he's not horrible and he's definitely an upgrade over what they had after Cousins went down last season. Darnold went 4-2 with Carolina in 2022 on a team with a pretty bad roster overall. It is a tough division, though. Edited April 23 by dave mcbride 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Einstein's Dog Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 17 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said: He almost always trades up like 2-3 spots for absolutely no reason. Remember when he traded up for Elam because we just had to have him? That was fun. I'd expect a trade to 22-25 just because True, the trade up seemed anxious for Elam to me. But the move up for Kincaid seemed brilliant (the reaction from the Dallas war room spoke volumes). As mentioned earlier I could see a small move up again to get maybe Worthy on the thought that KC might make the move. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 All depends how the draft falls- I’m inclined to say trade up into the 20’s because he’s done just that the last 2 seasons. I’d be happy with any of the outcomes as long as we don’t take this years version of Kaiir Elam again. Hated that pick. Loved all the other 1st rd picks other than wrong Josh! Ed and Kincaid were the players I wanted most in rd 1 going into their respective drafts. This year….i don’t think I really have a favorite. Lots a players I like. Some WRs, some not. Polkin rd 2 is my only dream this year. So Latu and Polk with our first 2 picks would be dreamy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheyCallMeAndy Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 I’m not married to a R1 WR, so if the value is gone by 28, I’m all for a slight trade back into R2 in order to get an additional R2 and hopefully a R3. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Jokeman Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Move back, he's upset about no 3rd for Edmunds and wants to get some guys that can start in 2024 and maybe 2025 and to me that comes from quality picks early and easiest way to get more is to trade down in Round 1. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 26 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said: You estimate is that the WR room is bottom 3 right now. I honestly dont know the WR qualities of about 15 teams so I cant challenge nor agree with you. However, I took a swag at estimating the WR room quality in different scenarios. Do you agree? Draft one of big 3 + vet addition Top 5 Draft one of big 3 + another in Rd 4 Top 5 Draft 1A tier (BT Jr) + vet addition Top 10 Draft 1A tier (BT Jr) + another in Rd 4 Top 10 (maybe) Draft 2nd tier and any one else Middle of the road I think that’s still a bit aggressive but if they added something like Odunze & Odell they could be top 10ish. I would really like the WR depth but they’d still be a little underwhelming at the top. I feel like it’s a good start though. IMO, the Bills have a couple of strong slot / move guys in Shakir and Samuel. I don’t think either is an elite boundary guy. Having a star though, on a rookie deal, opens up a whole bunch of options moving forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 32 minutes ago, LabattBlue said: I still have a bad feeling that if Cooper DeJean is on the board at 28, McD shouts down any WR talk, and the Bills draft DeJean. I think you're right. In terms of realistic Bills picks at 28 and what I expect they'll actually do, I have DeJean #2 on the board before the 2nd tier WRs (Latu being #1, though a bigger stretch to be available at 28). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheyCallMeAndy Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 38 minutes ago, LabattBlue said: I still have a bad feeling that if Cooper DeJean is on the board at 28, McD shouts down any WR talk, and the Bills draft DeJean. Unless one of the top 4-5 WRs somehow fall to 28, I’d have zero issues with this happening. We have enough 4s, 5s, and 6s to combo them with 60 and move up for a WR on day 2. Ill be a happy dude if we walk into Saturday with one of the top 8 WRs and FS Cooper Dejean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 2 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said: Unless one of the top 4-5 WRs somehow fall to 28, I’d have zero issues with this happening. We have enough 4s, 5s, and 6s to combo them with 60 and move up for a WR on day 2. Ill be a happy dude if we walk into Saturday with one of the top 8 WRs and FS Cooper Dejean. Look at the pick value chart and tell me how the Bills are getting from 60 to say 45 using 4th, 5th and/or 6th round picks. It is not happening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4BillsintheBurgh Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said: I’ve had this weird feeling that they were going into the top 10 for a while. I thought that when Diggs was here. If I thought it then, I can’t change now that the need is greater. I can’t shake Beane press conference when he talked about how “he would love a Ja’marr Chase but hopes to never finish bad enough to draft one.” To me, I think that he looks at it as, “swing big on a star WR” and avoid paying that giant bill for 5 years. You can allocate that savings, moving forward to pass rush or whatever. The rising cost of elite receivers makes this the right time to swing big. I guess I kind of think the opposite of this. The time for me to burn draft picks would have been while Josh was in his lower cap years. We kind of need the picks to hit now to manage the finances unfortunately. In the low cap hit years we are able to grab a Von Miller type player or two, now there is less overhead and more reliance on smaller vet contracts coming in. I am thinking he is going to try and leverage Josh's talent as much as possible and I thought it was an interesting point when he said he needs a selfless guy in this offense. Not sure if the top guys are that, but that's just because of my ignorance. I'm guessing they have identified a few guys who fit the mold they're looking for and I wouldn't be surprised if they're 2nd and lower round guys. The big swing, if taken, will be a deviation from Beane's normal mantra. Will be interesting to see if he is feeling a little pressure to dump some future resources into this year. I thought it was awesome when he positioned us to not give up any future picks when moving up for josh/Edmunds and I think it just underscores his natural aversion to giving the next years picks up. Always room for a tendency breaker though. Can't wait to see on Thursday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4BillsintheBurgh Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 20 minutes ago, LabattBlue said: Look at the pick value chart and tell me how the Bills are getting from 60 to say 45 using 4th, 5th and/or 6th round picks. It is not happening. I think if they don't get a receiver they like at 28, the Diggs 2025 pick gives them some capital to work with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 16 minutes ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said: I think if they don't get a receiver they like at 28, the Diggs 2025 pick gives them some capital to work with. They'd be better off keeping it. It's probably going to be a top 40 pick next year, and while valuable in it's own right, you could also package it next year and have two 1st round picks or one pick near the top 10. Sure, you have to wait a year, but that's worth way more than 3rd round trade value this year, IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Not sure what he'll do but I think sticking at 28 is the least likely scenario. If one of the top 3 WRs makes it to 8ish I think he will try to make a blockbuster trade up. If someone with a 1st round grade is sticking out on his board in the 20s he is going to trade up for them using one of our 4ths. If all the 1st round grades are wiped out by then I predict a trade back with Washington to recoup our 3rd round pick. So it just depends on how the board falls. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Vader Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 1 hour ago, The Jokeman said: Move back, he's upset about no 3rd for Edmunds and wants to get some guys that can start in 2024 and maybe 2025 and to me that comes from quality picks early and easiest way to get more is to trade down in Round 1. I agree with your take. I'm still pissed that we didn't get that 3rd rounder for Edmunds. I do think that Beane will look to move up, but I don't think there will be any takers. Trading down seems very likely. Maybe we move down a couple spots with San Francisco, and get one of their many draft picks. Then find someone early in the second round to trade with? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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