2024 WR Draft Class

[nosejob]

17 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Next year’s first might not even be worth pick 41 in this draft.  You are unlikely to get 41+ more for it.  It’s poor business overall trading future picks.

I know where you stand on this, but in my gut BB is gonna produce 2 extra picks and look to stock the cupboard. And how is he gonna achieve that?

It sure as Hell ain't gonna be by using late round picks.  They wouldn't get us to 100.

 

Trading back from 28 just to have something to move up from 60 with would not make much sense....to me.

So it's gonna have to come from 25. And if next year we're supposed to have plenty of FA money, we should try to make hay in this draft.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Next year’s first might not even be worth pick 41 in this draft.  You are unlikely to get 41+ more for it.  It’s poor business overall trading future picks.

If next years WR at #28 was going to be a better prospect than a WR at 41+ this year, this would be a good point.

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

If next years WR at #28 was going to be a better prospect than a WR at 41+ this year, this would be a good point.

You don’t know that next year’s pick will be #28, could be in the teens if the season doesn’t go according to our wishes.

 

And we don’t know that the guys available at 41 are any better than they could get next year in the first.  Who is the special star they can get at 41 that is sure to be better than a first round one next year?  But, I am fine with addressing WR this year at 28 and maybe even 60, just recognize they are likely to need a starting DE next year to replace Miller and a starter at CB to replace Douglas who will be 31 then.

Edited April 13 by OldTimer1960

[BillsFooteball]

If WR is the pick I’m  getting the feeling the only thing bills won’t do is stay put at 28.

They either go all in trade up for Nabers

or it comes to pick 28 and Harrison, Odunze, Nabers, Thomas, and Mitchell are off the board. I can see trade back there. Sure they can take Legette, Coleman, Franklin but no way at 28…right? 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

😬

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

29 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

😬

 

 

IMO Coleman is either a huge bust like Chase Claypool without the 1 season  or the Josh Allen of WR’s

 

& I believe the bust chance is WAY too high to warrant picking him at 28, maybe even 60 depending who else is there

[Kirby Jackson]

 

[SirAndrew]

2 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

IMO Coleman is either a huge bust like Chase Claypool without the 1 season  or the Josh Allen of WR’s

 

& I believe the bust chance is WAY too high to warrant picking him at 28, maybe even 60 depending who else is there

I don’t like Coleman much. I know every player is unique, and you shouldn’t hold their school against them, but FSU guys scare me. They don’t play smart or disciplined football. FSU attracts very athletically gifted players, but also seem to lack discipline, and football smarts. I watch college ball, and rarely love what I see from FSU guys the past few seasons. It’s all about potential with their guys. It’s exactly what you say, a huge bust potential. 

[Low Positive]

1 hour ago, SirAndrew said:

I don’t like Coleman much. I know every player is unique, and you shouldn’t hold their school against them, but FSU guys scare me. They don’t play smart or disciplined football. FSU attracts very athletically gifted players, but also seem to lack discipline, and football smarts. I watch college ball, and rarely love what I see from FSU guys the past few seasons. It’s all about potential with their guys. It’s exactly what you say, a huge bust potential. 

How do you feel about Michigan State guys? Because that’s where Coleman was until their coaching situation hit the fan.

[SirAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

How do you feel about Michigan State guys? Because that’s where Coleman was until their coaching situation hit the fan.

Good point, apparently I don’t think anything about Michigan State 😆 He just struck me as the perfect FSU guy, all potential. Potential is a dangerous thing when you’ve got plenty of receivers who produced more at the college level. I’ve never liked “potential” players who didn’t dominate at major programs. I’ll take that chance on a small school guy who doesn’t have crazy stats, but this draft has too many guys who produced more in college than Coleman. 

Edited April 14 by SirAndrew

[OldTimer1960]

15 hours ago, SirAndrew said:

Good point, apparently I don’t think anything about Michigan State 😆 He just struck me as the perfect FSU guy, all potential. Potential is a dangerous thing when you’ve got plenty of receivers who produced more at the college level. I’ve never liked “potential” players who didn’t dominate at major programs. I’ll take that chance on a small school guy who doesn’t have crazy stats, but this draft has too many guys who produced more in college than Coleman. 

I’m not a big Coleman advocate either, but I think it’s inaccurate to say he has been unproductive.  108 receptions and 18 TDs over the last two seasons against high level competition with less than stellar QB play isn’t bad.

[DJB]

@Solomon Grundy

@HappyDays

 

You two seem to be the resident Coleman fans. Can you elaborate what you like about him and how he’s going to be successful at the next level? And why he is worthy of pick 28? 
 

I’ve been vocal about my disdain for Coleman and why he is not worthy of being picked in round 1 with all the red flags I see, however I’m always open to ideas and seeing new perspectives on players . 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, DJB said:

@Solomon Grundy

@HappyDays

 

You two seem to be the resident Coleman fans. Can you elaborate what you like about him and how he’s going to be successful at the next level? And why he is worthy of pick 28? 
 

I’ve been vocal about my disdain for Coleman and why he is not worthy of being picked in round 1 with all the red flags I see, however I’m always open to ideas and seeing new perspectives on players . 

I'll add to this request: how do you answer the concern that Coleman would likely have to get a lot of snaps as a big slot to be productive? I don't want to add a player that largely needs Kincaid to be off the field for the best chance of success.

[Donuts and Doritos]

 

 

[gonzo1105]

18 hours ago, SirAndrew said:

I don’t like Coleman much. I know every player is unique, and you shouldn’t hold their school against them, but FSU guys scare me. They don’t play smart or disciplined football. FSU attracts very athletically gifted players, but also seem to lack discipline, and football smarts. I watch college ball, and rarely love what I see from FSU guys the past few seasons. It’s all about potential with their guys. It’s exactly what you say, a huge bust potential. 

You are too much looking at before Mike Norvell became the HC. This past years team was extremely disciplined and sound in all aspects this past year. They don’t taunt like teams of the past or do look at me dancing. They just went out and played ball and beat the snot out of teams. 

[MiracleAtRich1393]

17 hours ago, Low Positive said:

How do you feel about Michigan State guys? Because that’s where Coleman was until their coaching situation hit the fan.

This is a good point. How did he look next to Jayden Reed when they shared the field in the same system? I liked Reed a lot coming out last year and he has had a nice early return 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, DJB said:

@Solomon Grundy

@HappyDays

 

You two seem to be the resident Coleman fans. Can you elaborate what you like about him and how he’s going to be successful at the next level? And why he is worthy of pick 28? 
 

I’ve been vocal about my disdain for Coleman and why he is not worthy of being picked in round 1 with all the red flags I see, however I’m always open to ideas and seeing new perspectives on players . 

 

I'll start off by pointing out every WR we're talking about as a possibility at #28 has a red flag or two in their game. That's inescapable at the bottom of the 1st round. That's why I'm banging the drum for a trade down and then double dipping at WR with our first two picks. Maximize the chance that we get a stud at the position while also picking up a 3rd rounder this year.

 

I worry that I've been overselling my affinity for Keon Coleman. I don't think he's a true 1st round grade WR - in my eyes only three of those exist in this class. I just think his traits are winning traits in the NFL and that he would mesh well with Josh Allen. The upside pro comparison I would point to is Nico Collins. He also had questions on if he could separate coming out of Michigan, but his size and strength have turned him into a true #1 WR.

 

I'm not saying anything groundbreaking here - size and strength are winning traits in the NFL. Those traits will allow Coleman to power through press coverage, box out defenders at his route break to create leverage, win the ball in the air, and bully defenders with the ball in his hands. The reason I am especially valuing those traits for the Bills is that I have seen our smaller WRs get pushed around in the playoffs for several years in a row now. I've seen Allen give his WR a chance to win the ball against 1v1 coverage only for the WR to lose the contest.

 

Of course it's possible he will fail. He isn't going to win with speed or twitchiness. Perhaps he will struggle more than anticipated against physical coverage and he'll be relegated to the slot as some have predicted. I just see a lot people overemphasizing his red flags and underemphasizing his strengths, while doing the opposite with their own favored prospect. Personally I think the talk of separation metrics and contested catch percentage is a lot of bunk. WRs aren't usually creating yards of separation in the NFL. Their job is to create leverage to open up a throwing window. Coleman does plenty of that on film. As far as contested catches, Jordan Travis is a pure college QB that only throws into windows he can clearly see. Zero anticipation and modest arm strength meant that contested catches ended up being more contested than they should have been. There are times on film where Coleman is breaking wide open but by the time the ball gets to him the DB has caught up and made it into the window and is able to easily punch the ball away. With a QB like Allen, the ball will be on him immediately before the CB has a chance to do anything about it. I come away impressed by Coleman's college production because his skill set doesn't mesh well with a pure college QB.

 

2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I'll add to this request: how do you answer the concern that Coleman would likely have to get a lot of snaps as a big slot to be productive? I don't want to add a player that largely needs Kincaid to be off the field for the best chance of success.

 

I don't know why Coleman would have issues beating press at the next level. He's already big and strong, and not even 21 yet so he probably has more room to grow into his already NFL caliber frame. He's reportedly very competitive and motivated to cash out in the NFL (some may scoff at this, but money is by far the greatest motivator) so I am confident he'll work hard on his release package. He has the frame of a true X.

[Dr. Who]

57 minutes ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

 

 

I really enjoyed this breakdown (partly because I pretty much agree with their analyses.) The last twenty minutes or so when they are talking about their top 6 are absolutely worth a listen. If Beane somehow pulled off grabbing Ladd McConkey and one of Mitchell or Thomas, it would be a home run draft. Folks who don't think McConkey is an X should pay attention to what they say here. 

[OldTimer1960]

After the top 3 and Thomas Jr, I think Mitchell is probably the next guy, but I will admit that I really like McConkey, too.  After them, I think we fans really need to be open to guys that have been characterized as mostly slot guys.  If they aren’t open to guys like Pearsall and Wilson then the “deep pool of WRs” gets a lot shallower.  
 

Just get good football players at important positions - don’t reach for need.

[Warriorspikes51]

I’d be thrilled with Legette and Franklin

 

Perhaps Xavier at 28 and then move up from 60 for Franklin?

 

Or if Beane is confident both make it to Round 2, trade down with WSH or CAR and hopefully pick up a 3rd 

 

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

After the top 3 and Thomas Jr, I think Mitchell is probably the next guy, but I will admit that I really like McConkey, too.  After them, I think we fans really need to be open to guys that have been characterized as mostly slot guys.  If they aren’t open to guys like Pearsall and Wilson then the “deep pool of WRs” gets a lot shallower.  
 

Just get good football players at important positions - don’t reach for need.

 

I'd take Legette, Mitchell and Worthy as my next 3 after the top 3 plus Thomas (although I'd take Legette over Thomas personally) and I'd take Franklin, Coleman and Baker before Pearsall and Wilson. McConkey is right in the middle of that group for me.... after Legette, Mitchell and Worthy but before the rest. 

Edited April 14 by GunnerBill

[Turbo44]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd take Legette, Mitchell and Worthy as my next 3 after the top 3 plus Thomas (although I'd take Legette over Thomas personally) and I'd take Franklin, Coleman and Baker before Pearsall and Wilson. McConkey is right in the middle of that group for me.... after Legette, Mitchell and Worthy but before the rest. 

I can’t wrap my head around worthy. Super fast 40 but he’s not a one trick pony as he had 3 years of nice production. Still I don’t know if I could draft him early??

[Warriorspikes51]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd take Legette, Mitchell and Worthy as my next 3 after the top 3 plus Thomas (although I'd take Legette over Thomas personally) and I'd take Franklin, Coleman and Baker before Pearsall and Wilson. McConkey is right in the middle of that group for me.... after Legette, Mitchell and Worthy but before the rest. 

 

 

Big 3

 

BTJ

 

Legette

Worthy

AD Mitchell

Franklin

Pearsall
 

McConkey

Wilson

Baker

Coleman

 

McConkey could be very good, but IMO he’s too similar to what we already have and I thought I saw he was awful against press man. We need someone who can beat man. Badly. 

[DCOrange]

Matt Harmon's tiered rankings so far:

1. MHJ - #1 out of 61 WRs he's graded since 2021 - Top 10 Pick
2. Rome Odunze - #3 - Top 10 pick
3. Malik Nabers - #8 - Top 10 pick
4. Brian Thomas Jr. - #12 - Clear 1st rounder
5. Ricky Pearsall - #17 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
6. Ladd McConkey - #18 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
7. Adonai Mitchell - #20 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
8. Xavier Worthy - #27 - Priority Round 2
9. Keon Coleman - #32 - Good Day 2 Option
10. Roman Wilson - #48 - Late 3rd/Early 4th

https://receptionperception.com/matt-harmons-nfl-draft-prospect-wr-rankings-2021-2023-stacked/

[Brandon]

3 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Matt Harmon's tiered rankings so far:

1. MHJ - #1 out of 61 WRs he's graded since 2021 - Top 10 Pick
2. Rome Odunze - #3 - Top 10 pick
3. Malik Nabers - #8 - Top 10 pick
4. Brian Thomas Jr. - #12 - Clear 1st rounder
5. Ricky Pearsall - #17 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
6. Ladd McConkey - #18 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
7. Adonai Mitchell - #20 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
8. Xavier Worthy - #27 - Priority Round 2
9. Keon Coleman - #32 - Good Day 2 Option
10. Roman Wilson - #48 - Late 3rd/Early 4th

https://receptionperception.com/matt-harmons-nfl-draft-prospect-wr-rankings-2021-2023-stacked/

 

I've kind of suspected that Pearsall was being undervalued and might actually sneak into the late 1st.  I'm not sure I'd put him ahead of Worthy,  but I'm not sure I wouldn't,  either.  I like McConkey at 28 better than both. 

 

 

[DCOrange]

7 hours ago, DJB said:

@Solomon Grundy

@HappyDays

 

You two seem to be the resident Coleman fans. Can you elaborate what you like about him and how he’s going to be successful at the next level? And why he is worthy of pick 28? 
 

I’ve been vocal about my disdain for Coleman and why he is not worthy of being picked in round 1 with all the red flags I see, however I’m always open to ideas and seeing new perspectives on players . 

I think I'm high on Coleman relative to most here. Similar to @HappyDays, I'm not sure he's really a 1st round grade to me. Pre-Combine, I had a late 1st round grade on him and Franklin as my #4 and #5 WR in the class. If they had done what they had to do at the Combine, I probably would have felt pretty good about potentially taking them at #28, but either way, they were always more fringe 1st round types. To me, it's the big 3 and Brian Thomas as clear 1st rounders and then nobody after that is clear.

 

I readily admit Coleman has a lot of red flags; probably more red flags than any other WRs that are being considered in the first two days of the draft. The main things I like/the reasons I'm willing to look past a lot of the red flags:

• Athleticism - Altogether, Coleman is a good, borderline great athlete for the position. The 4.6 forty really hurts, but as has been said ad nauseum, while he's certainly not a burner, he does seem to play faster than the 4.6 time would suggest.
• Age/Breakout Age - Coleman is the 2nd youngest WR in the class and tied for the 5th youngest breakout age in the class. While he's obviously fairly raw, he's at the age where being relatively raw is okay, and he at least has the physical tools you want (minus the mediocre speed) and has been fairly productive despite being relatively raw.
• Motor - He's a high-effort player on the field. Tenacious run blocker to the point that Michigan State would motion him across the formation to be the lead blocker on run plays as if he was a blocking tight end. It sounds like he's a very hard worker behind the scenes/a player that keeps his teammates energized.
• Short-Term Upside - Despite being a stacked WR class, I think a lot of these highly touted WRs are guys where you're not entirely sure if they have something they can immediately hang their hat on to bring immediate value. A lot of well-rounded types that could be really good players, but not a ton of guys that feel like they can do something that's relatively unguardable the second they enter the league. Coleman has that IMO with his ability to box out DBs for back-shoulder throws, make contested catches, and elevate to get to passes that nobody else can.
• Long-Term Upside - As I've kinda laid out already, he has the physical tools, he has youth on his side, and he's been fairly productive despite being pretty raw skill-wise. A lot of areas where he can further develop his skills to take his game to another level and seemingly has the motor you look for to max out that potential.

I love Matt Harmon as a WR analyst and he makes a pretty strong case for the transition to big slot WR. He very well may be right, and if he is, Coleman doesn't make a lot of sense for Buffalo. I tend to think of Coleman similarly to how I thought about Josh Allen when he was coming out of Wyoming. I totally acknowledge all the metrics and stuff that suggest he will be a bust and should not warrant any serious consideration. I just tend to think he has the mental makeup and physical tools to be the outlier. It's admittedly a pretty high-risk play.

 

I think I'd probably lean towards taking a different position at #28 or trading down rather than reaching on Coleman or Franklin, but those two remain at the top of my list after the big 3 and Thomas as far as WRs go.

[LEBills]

33 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Matt Harmon's tiered rankings so far:

1. MHJ - #1 out of 61 WRs he's graded since 2021 - Top 10 Pick
2. Rome Odunze - #3 - Top 10 pick
3. Malik Nabers - #8 - Top 10 pick
4. Brian Thomas Jr. - #12 - Clear 1st rounder
5. Ricky Pearsall - #17 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
6. Ladd McConkey - #18 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
7. Adonai Mitchell - #20 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
8. Xavier Worthy - #27 - Priority Round 2
9. Keon Coleman - #32 - Good Day 2 Option
10. Roman Wilson - #48 - Late 3rd/Early 4th

https://receptionperception.com/matt-harmons-nfl-draft-prospect-wr-rankings-2021-2023-stacked/

I said earlier in this thread that I think Harmon is an excellent WR talent evaluator, and many other guys I respect think veryyy highly of Pearsall.

But I think it’s just way too high. In a class of a lot of skinny wide receivers, I thought Pearsall was the worst when there was contact at any point. Getting pushed on his routes, not surviving the catch through contacting the ground, getting pushed backwards on every hit, breaking very few tackles and getting the ball ripped right out of his hands after the catch. He does have some elusiveness and nice route running to be a possession/slot receiver. But I think that’s too low a ceiling to be the 5th ranked player in this awesome class. For a nearly 24 year old player, I think he is one the draft YouTubers are too high on. 

 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

There are just too many options for me to wrap my head around what the Bills will end up doing. The variables are too great. The one thing I get more and more confident about as we get closer and the more I read, is that we will not be moving up for a big 3 into the top 10. I’d be surprised if we went into the teens even. 

[section122]

6 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I’d be thrilled with Legette and Franklin

 

Perhaps Xavier at 28 and then move up from 60 for Franklin?

 

Or if Beane is confident both make it to Round 2, trade down with WSH or CAR and hopefully pick up a 3rd 

 

 

Analytics really seem to love franklin this year.  Pff has him very highly rated as well.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I’m hoping they draft Ladd now because he’s the only WR Josh would hang out with.

[Chicken Boo]

51 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

Analytics really seem to love franklin this year.  Pff has him very highly rated as well.

 

Matt Harmon's ranking of Franklin outside the top let's me know to never follow his scouting of receivers.  

[Solomon Grundy]

11 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'll start off by pointing out every WR we're talking about as a possibility at #28 has a red flag or two in their game. That's inescapable at the bottom of the 1st round. That's why I'm banging the drum for a trade down and then double dipping at WR with our first two picks. Maximize the chance that we get a stud at the position while also picking up a 3rd rounder this year.

 

I worry that I've been overselling my affinity for Keon Coleman. I don't think he's a true 1st round grade WR - in my eyes only three of those exist in this class. I just think his traits are winning traits in the NFL and that he would mesh well with Josh Allen. The upside pro comparison I would point to is Nico Collins. He also had questions on if he could separate coming out of Michigan, but his size and strength have turned him into a true #1 WR.

 

I'm not saying anything groundbreaking here - size and strength are winning traits in the NFL. Those traits will allow Coleman to power through press coverage, box out defenders at his route break to create leverage, win the ball in the air, and bully defenders with the ball in his hands. The reason I am especially valuing those traits for the Bills is that I have seen our smaller WRs get pushed around in the playoffs for several years in a row now. I've seen Allen give his WR a chance to win the ball against 1v1 coverage only for the WR to lose the contest.

 

Of course it's possible he will fail. He isn't going to win with speed or twitchiness. Perhaps he will struggle more than anticipated against physical coverage and he'll be relegated to the slot as some have predicted. I just see a lot people overemphasizing his red flags and underemphasizing his strengths, while doing the opposite with their own favored prospect. Personally I think the talk of separation metrics and contested catch percentage is a lot of bunk. WRs aren't usually creating yards of separation in the NFL. Their job is to create leverage to open up a throwing window. Coleman does plenty of that on film. As far as contested catches, Jordan Travis is a pure college QB that only throws into windows he can clearly see. Zero anticipation and modest arm strength meant that contested catches ended up being more contested than they should have been. There are times on film where Coleman is breaking wide open but by the time the ball gets to him the DB has caught up and made it into the window and is able to easily punch the ball away. With a QB like Allen, the ball will be on him immediately before the CB has a chance to do anything about it. I come away impressed by Coleman's college production because his skill set doesn't mesh well with a pure college QB.

 

 

I don't know why Coleman would have issues beating press at the next level. He's already big and strong, and not even 21 yet so he probably has more room to grow into his already NFL caliber frame. He's reportedly very competitive and motivated to cash out in the NFL (some may scoff at this, but money is by far the greatest motivator) so I am confident he'll work hard on his release package. He has the frame of a true X.

To add to this assessment, HE CATCHES THE FOOTBALL!! Think DeAndre Hopkins. Another thing I like about him is when he catches the ball he always fall forward/gain extra yardage. A chain mover so to speak. I just think he is the kind of receiver meant for Buffalo weather. 

[Richard Noggin]

6 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Matt Harmon's tiered rankings so far:

1. MHJ - #1 out of 61 WRs he's graded since 2021 - Top 10 Pick
2. Rome Odunze - #3 - Top 10 pick
3. Malik Nabers - #8 - Top 10 pick
4. Brian Thomas Jr. - #12 - Clear 1st rounder
5. Ricky Pearsall - #17 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
6. Ladd McConkey - #18 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
7. Adonai Mitchell - #20 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
8. Xavier Worthy - #27 - Priority Round 2
9. Keon Coleman - #32 - Good Day 2 Option
10. Roman Wilson - #48 - Late 3rd/Early 4th

https://receptionperception.com/matt-harmons-nfl-draft-prospect-wr-rankings-2021-2023-stacked/

 

Paywall content? AND no Franklin or Legette in top-10? Fascinatingly contrarian/cynical view of two prospects with otherwise strong advanced numbers and notable (but opposite) physical profiles and historic production.  

 

6 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I think I'm high on Coleman relative to most here. Similar to @HappyDays, I'm not sure he's really a 1st round grade to me. Pre-Combine, I had a late 1st round grade on him and Franklin as my #4 and #5 WR in the class. If they had done what they had to do at the Combine, I probably would have felt pretty good about potentially taking them at #28, but either way, they were always more fringe 1st round types. To me, it's the big 3 and Brian Thomas as clear 1st rounders and then nobody after that is clear.

 

I readily admit Coleman has a lot of red flags; probably more red flags than any other WRs that are being considered in the first two days of the draft. The main things I like/the reasons I'm willing to look past a lot of the red flags:

• Athleticism - Altogether, Coleman is a good, borderline great athlete for the position. The 4.6 forty really hurts, but as has been said ad nauseum, while he's certainly not a burner, he does seem to play faster than the 4.6 time would suggest.
• Age/Breakout Age - Coleman is the 2nd youngest WR in the class and tied for the 5th youngest breakout age in the class. While he's obviously fairly raw, he's at the age where being relatively raw is okay, and he at least has the physical tools you want (minus the mediocre speed) and has been fairly productive despite being relatively raw.
• Motor - He's a high-effort player on the field. Tenacious run blocker to the point that Michigan State would motion him across the formation to be the lead blocker on run plays as if he was a blocking tight end. It sounds like he's a very hard worker behind the scenes/a player that keeps his teammates energized.
• Short-Term Upside - Despite being a stacked WR class, I think a lot of these highly touted WRs are guys where you're not entirely sure if they have something they can immediately hang their hat on to bring immediate value. A lot of well-rounded types that could be really good players, but not a ton of guys that feel like they can do something that's relatively unguardable the second they enter the league. Coleman has that IMO with his ability to box out DBs for back-shoulder throws, make contested catches, and elevate to get to passes that nobody else can.
• Long-Term Upside - As I've kinda laid out already, he has the physical tools, he has youth on his side, and he's been fairly productive despite being pretty raw skill-wise. A lot of areas where he can further develop his skills to take his game to another level and seemingly has the motor you look for to max out that potential.

I love Matt Harmon as a WR analyst and he makes a pretty strong case for the transition to big slot WR. He very well may be right, and if he is, Coleman doesn't make a lot of sense for Buffalo. I tend to think of Coleman similarly to how I thought about Josh Allen when he was coming out of Wyoming. I totally acknowledge all the metrics and stuff that suggest he will be a bust and should not warrant any serious consideration. I just tend to think he has the mental makeup and physical tools to be the outlier. It's admittedly a pretty high-risk play.

 

I think I'd probably lean towards taking a different position at #28 or trading down rather than reaching on Coleman or Franklin, but those two remain at the top of my list after the big 3 and Thomas as far as WRs go.

 

I admit to thinking Coleman could be a rare guy, like Josh Allen, who defeats the analytics community's "math" at the next level. For WR testing considerations, why shouldn't scouts/analysts be devaluing the 40 in favor of the gauntlet? The gauntlet drill might be emerging as an increasingly valued "game speed" indicator, and has a notable champion for its validity, in Puka Nacua. Turns out, Coleman's combine profile/testing overlaps with and actually outperforms Nacua. If Coleman ends up producing at a level equal to or above the 2024 WRs drafted before him, then we'll undoubtedly see an immediate, system-wide elevation of the combine gauntlet drill.

 

The major red flag that persists for Coleman is Yards per Route Run: he and AD Mitchell both have brutal YPRR, and Coleman can't fall back on Mitchell's 4.3 testing. But I'd argue that Coleman is a stronger, more determined athlete overall who is more likely to continue to improve his game. 

 

2 hours ago, section122 said:

 

Analytics really seem to love franklin this year.  Pff has him very highly rated as well.

 

Franklin's bad combine has him way down on the general WR prospect sexy scale, but his college numbers are forever way UP at the top of the class. 

 

Kind of unrelated: check out Khalil Shakir's top-5ish explosivity (depth/target x YAC) comps last season

 

 

Edited April 15 by Richard Noggin

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I worry that I've been overselling my affinity for Keon Coleman. I don't think he's a true 1st round grade WR - in my eyes only three of those exist in this class. I just think his traits are winning traits in the NFL and that he would mesh well with Josh Allen. 

 

 

Equally I think I am sometimes perceived as hating him. Which I don't. I have him at #50 on my board. Daniel Jeremiah has him at #43. I don't think I'm way off the consensus on him. I'm at the lower end of the range, sure. But if the Bills took another position at #28 and Coleman made it to #60 (he won't) I'd be fine with picking him there or even trading up a few spots. He just isn't a pick at #28 or slide back 5 or 6 spots into the top of round 2 and picks option for me. I think that would be bad value because while I think he is a starter and a contributor in an NFL offense I don't see him as a difference maker and I suspect there will still be guys I have in that tier there in the late 20s and early 30s. I'm with Matt Harmon on the big slot thing. Indeed I'd said that here before Harmon said it. 

Edited April 15 by GunnerBill

[ToGoGo]

12 hours ago, Turbo44 said:

I can’t wrap my head around worthy. Super fast 40 but he’s not a one trick pony as he had 3 years of nice production. Still I don’t know if I could draft him early??

Maybe I’m the only one but watching his highlights he doesn’t seem as fast as his 40. Legette looks faster than him. 
 

Does anybody else think his game speed is not as fast as his 40 time? 

[mannc]

10 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I think I'm high on Coleman relative to most here. Similar to @HappyDays, I'm not sure he's really a 1st round grade to me. Pre-Combine, I had a late 1st round grade on him and Franklin as my #4 and #5 WR in the class. If they had done what they had to do at the Combine, I probably would have felt pretty good about potentially taking them at #28, but either way, they were always more fringe 1st round types. To me, it's the big 3 and Brian Thomas as clear 1st rounders and then nobody after that is clear.

 

I readily admit Coleman has a lot of red flags; probably more red flags than any other WRs that are being considered in the first two days of the draft. The main things I like/the reasons I'm willing to look past a lot of the red flags:

• Athleticism - Altogether, Coleman is a good, borderline great athlete for the position. The 4.6 forty really hurts, but as has been said ad nauseum, while he's certainly not a burner, he does seem to play faster than the 4.6 time would suggest.
• Age/Breakout Age - Coleman is the 2nd youngest WR in the class and tied for the 5th youngest breakout age in the class. While he's obviously fairly raw, he's at the age where being relatively raw is okay, and he at least has the physical tools you want (minus the mediocre speed) and has been fairly productive despite being relatively raw.
• Motor - He's a high-effort player on the field. Tenacious run blocker to the point that Michigan State would motion him across the formation to be the lead blocker on run plays as if he was a blocking tight end. It sounds like he's a very hard worker behind the scenes/a player that keeps his teammates energized.
• Short-Term Upside - Despite being a stacked WR class, I think a lot of these highly touted WRs are guys where you're not entirely sure if they have something they can immediately hang their hat on to bring immediate value. A lot of well-rounded types that could be really good players, but not a ton of guys that feel like they can do something that's relatively unguardable the second they enter the league. Coleman has that IMO with his ability to box out DBs for back-shoulder throws, make contested catches, and elevate to get to passes that nobody else can.
• Long-Term Upside - As I've kinda laid out already, he has the physical tools, he has youth on his side, and he's been fairly productive despite being pretty raw skill-wise. A lot of areas where he can further develop his skills to take his game to another level and seemingly has the motor you look for to max out that potential.

I love Matt Harmon as a WR analyst and he makes a pretty strong case for the transition to big slot WR. He very well may be right, and if he is, Coleman doesn't make a lot of sense for Buffalo. I tend to think of Coleman similarly to how I thought about Josh Allen when he was coming out of Wyoming. I totally acknowledge all the metrics and stuff that suggest he will be a bust and should not warrant any serious consideration. I just tend to think he has the mental makeup and physical tools to be the outlier. It's admittedly a pretty high-risk play.

 

I think I'd probably lean towards taking a different position at #28 or trading down rather than reaching on Coleman or Franklin, but those two remain at the top of my list after the big 3 and Thomas as far as WRs go.

Coleman’s 40 time is about the same as Puka Nakua’s…it’s not a disqualifier…and I think Nakua is pretty good comp…both guys are bigger receivers who seem to go all-out all the time and love to catch the ball in traffic.

Edited April 15 by mannc

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Can someone tell me how Pearsall has suddenly shot up draft boards? He hasn't had the production of many of the others, doesn't have elite size and I was seeing him as back of 2nd -3rd round by most sites. 

 

Personally i would stay very far away. Another slot receiver? No thank you.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Can someone tell me how Pearsall has suddenly shot up draft boards? He hasn't had the production of many of the others, doesn't have elite size and I was seeing him as back of 2nd -3rd round by most sites. 

 

Personally i would stay very far away. Another slot receiver? No thank you.

 

He isn't in my WR12. I don't get it either. I think he can play outside, he isn't totally restricted to the slot, but in a class like this he doesn't belong anywhere near round 1. To be honest he'd feel like a consolation prize at #60 to me unless the Bills are double dipping at receiver. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He isn't in my WR12. I don't get it either. I think he can play outside, he isn't totally restricted to the slot, but in a class like this he doesn't belong anywhere near round 1. To be honest he'd feel like a consolation prize at #60 to me unless the Bills are double dipping at receiver. 

And just...we have Khalil Shakir. We have a proven commodity, in the building, to fill the role Pearsall would provide. 

 

If we are to take a flier on a guy in late second I'd rather they take a gamble on Polk because at the very least he fills a different role.

And if the Bills are passing on a WR at 28 or moving back I would absolutely look for Franklin, Mitchell, Worthy, McConkey, or Legette before Pearsall, easily.

[DCOrange]

6 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Matt Harmon's ranking of Franklin outside the top let's me know to never follow his scouting of receivers.  

I don’t think he’s scouted Franklin yet. The 10 I listed are the only 10 he’s published so far.