Is Dawson Knox is much more important to this team than we ever thought?

[transplantbillsfan]

Knox injured his wrist against the Jags.  He played 2 more games before going on IR, but admitted he was basically a shell of himself.  3 games since.

 

The entire offseason this offense practiced 12 personnel as our primary offense and it sure looked good weeks 2-4.

 

I keep going back to a podcast by Joe Marino of Locked On Bills sometime over the last few months (can't remember when) about the common misconception about 11 vs. 12 personnel.  It boils down to the fact that teams are actually much more successful passing the ball from 12 and much more successful running from 11.  Maybe someone can remember the episode and post it, but it made perfect sense even though it's the opposite of many would think.

 

So with Knox out at least 1 (?) more game, is he really the cog the offense is missing?  He's also Josh Allen's BFF... might be another component.  

[JerseyBills]

Yes. Ppl severely downplaying his impact because Kincaid is an elite pass catcher

[Chaos]

14 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Knox injured his wrist against the Jags.  He played 2 more games before going on IR, but admitted he was basically a shell of himself.  3 games since.

 

The entire offseason this offense practiced 12 personnel as our primary offense and it sure looked good weeks 2-4.

 

I keep going back to a podcast by Joe Marino of Locked On Bills sometime over the last few months (can't remember when) about the common misconception about 11 vs. 12 personnel.  It boils down to the fact that teams are actually much more successful passing the ball from 12 and much more successful running from 11.  Maybe someone can remember the episode and post it, but it made perfect sense even though it's the opposite of many would think.

 

So with Knox out at least 1 (?) more game, is he really the cog the offense is missing?  He's also Josh Allen's BFF... might be another component.  

Interesting take you might be right

[billsfan_34]

I had these same thoughts the past few weeks.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I think they have found some other players to step in and fill the void of dropping passes

[Rew]

Knox is still by far our best tight end (with respect to all the things the role provides)

 

Edit:  Kincaid is a better receiver and should be on the field, but to the OP's point, Knox being injured/out has had a significant negative impact on the O.

Edited November 14, 2023 by Rew

[MWK]

No. Knox is wildly overpaid and not that good.

[MPL]

I think the actual Bills never made it to England...

Their plane crashed on a mysterious island inhabited by a smoke monster and a group of scientists trying to uncover the island's secrets. No one knows where they are. You might even say they are LOST. Josh Allen is undoubtedly involved in a love triangle with Stefon Diggs and Evangeline Lilly. The NFL, trying to cover everything up, has found doppelgangers for everyone on the team, and while they resemble the actual Bills players and coaches, they're actually very bad at football. 

Dorsey's doppelganger was killed fired for threatening to reveal the coverup. 

Oh, except Gabe Davis somehow made it back and is still just bad at catching footballs. 

[Niagara Dude]

33 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Knox injured his wrist against the Jags.  He played 2 more games before going on IR, but admitted he was basically a shell of himself.  3 games since.

 

The entire offseason this offense practiced 12 personnel as our primary offense and it sure looked good weeks 2-4.

 

I keep going back to a podcast by Joe Marino of Locked On Bills sometime over the last few months (can't remember when) about the common misconception about 11 vs. 12 personnel.  It boils down to the fact that teams are actually much more successful passing the ball from 12 and much more successful running from 11.  Maybe someone can remember the episode and post it, but it made perfect sense even though it's the opposite of many would think.

 

So with Knox out at least 1 (?) more game, is he really the cog the offense is missing?  He's also Josh Allen's BFF... might be another component.  

No because they sucked in games he was available and sucked last season in games he played in.  This team does not have enough elite talent,  outside Allen/Diggs there are no positions that have elite players at and Beane has made a freaking mess with overpaying fringe players. Poyer/Hyde are mediocre talented safeties both making great money.  As for Knox,  his cap number in 2024 will be 14 mllion,  that is stupid cap management.

 

I said before the season that I was worried about this team because they struggled almost all last season and Beane did next to nothing adding new play makers.  

[dorquemada]

Knox is at his best when he is being a nursemaid to Spencer Brown.  Kincaid isn't that guy, but SB can't be on his own out there

[What a Tuel]

2 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:

No because they sucked in games he was available and sucked last season in games he played in.  This team does not have enough elite talent,  outside Allen/Diggs there are no positions that have elite players at and Beane has made a freaking mess with overpaying fringe players. Poyer/Hyde are mediocre talented safeties both making great money.  As for Knox,  his cap number in 2024 will be 14 mllion,  that is stupid cap management.

 

I said before the season that I was worried about this team because they struggled almost all last season and Beane did next to nothing adding new play makers.  

 

The idea that they struggled offensively is silly and not accurate. I know people want to call the eye test or whatever, but its just not accurate.

 

The last 8 games they were scoring nearly 30 points a game and went 7-1 (would've been 8-0 without the Allen fumble against the vikings).

[CincyBillsFan]

20 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

I think they have found some other players to step in and fill the void of dropping passes

Overly simplistic take on what Knox did for the offense.  Sure his drops were a problem but he did make tough catches, especially near the goal line, as well.  And the guy could generate some serious YAC with his imitation Angry Man runs.  But most of all we probably miss his blocking.

 

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

Knox is the epitome of "jack of all trades- master of none"

 

He does everything that a typical starting TE should be able to do. The biggest problem is he's average in all aspects but paid like a top guy at the position. 

 

The one thing he does have is the ability for those "angry runs" that get some people pulling for him more. He's quite literally the Gabe Davis of TEs.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I think the offense is considerably more predictable with him out.  

Just now, BuffaloBillyG said:

Knox is the epitome of "jack of all trades- master of none"

 

He does everything that a typical starting TE should be able to do. The biggest problem is he's average in all aspects but paid like a top guy at the position. 

 

The one thing he does have is the ability for those "angry runs" that get some people pulling for him more. He's quite literally the Gabe Davis of TEs.

 

His hands have been poor all year.  He has a knack for making that big play on 3rd down or whatever though.  

[Aussie Joe]

I hope he isn’t too important… because they will be moving on from him at the end of next year ..

[ngbills]

No and no. Kincaid essentially has replaced Knox. He is a piece they can use but not a reason why they are struggling. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

27 minutes ago, MPL said:

I think the actual Bills never made it to England...

Their plane crashed on a mysterious island inhabited by a smoke monster and a group of scientists trying to uncover the island's secrets. No one knows where they are. You might even say they are LOST. Josh Allen is undoubtedly involved in a love triangle with Stefon Diggs and Evangeline Lilly. The NFL, trying to cover everything up, has found doppelgangers for everyone on the team, and while they resemble the actual Bills players and coaches, they're actually very bad at football. 

Dorsey's doppelganger was killed fired for threatening to reveal the coverup. 

Oh, except Gabe Davis somehow made it back and is still just bad at catching footballs. 

This is an amazing theory 😂😂😂

[MPL]

27 minutes ago, MPL said:

I think the actual Bills never made it to England...

Their plane crashed on a mysterious island inhabited by a smoke monster and a group of scientists trying to uncover the island's secrets. No one knows where they are. You might even say they are LOST. Josh Allen is undoubtedly involved in a love triangle with Stefon Diggs and Evangeline Lilly. The NFL, trying to cover everything up, has found doppelgangers for everyone on the team, and while they resemble the actual Bills players and coaches, they're actually very bad at football. 

Dorsey's doppelganger was killed fired for threatening to reveal the coverup. 

Oh, except Gabe Davis somehow made it back and is still just bad at catching footballs. 

Oh, and at the end of the season, everyone will wonder if the team was actually just in purgatory the entire time. But the twist is that we, the fans, are the ones in purgatory. 

[ALLinALLEN]

Outside of blocking I don't see how losing him would cause this team to score only 1 td while leading in the last 24 quarters (saw this stat somewhere). Especially with Kincaid playing great. 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

34 minutes ago, MPL said:

I think the actual Bills never made it to England...

Their plane crashed on a mysterious island inhabited by a smoke monster and a group of scientists trying to uncover the island's secrets. No one knows where they are. You might even say they are LOST. Josh Allen is undoubtedly involved in a love triangle with Stefon Diggs and Evangeline Lilly. The NFL, trying to cover everything up, has found doppelgangers for everyone on the team, and while they resemble the actual Bills players and coaches, they're actually very bad at football. 

Dorsey's doppelganger was killed fired for threatening to reveal the coverup. 

Oh, except Gabe Davis somehow made it back and is still just bad at catching footballs. 

[billsfan714]

No his season high in receiving yards is 25.  If its blocking, throw another tackle next to Spencer.  If you're telling me 15-25 yards is key part of our offense i say we got other problems.

[Nextmanup]

No; Knox would likely be cut if we could without the massive cap damage that would cause.

 

He's the highest paid blocking TE in the league.

 

Congratulations Mr. Beane!

 

 

 

[T master]

Every good player missing due to injury is not good for the team Knox is a proven player leaves it all on the field but he is only 1/11th of that side of the ball . He will definitely help but not the cure all .

 

18 minutes ago, ngbills said:

No and no. Kincaid essentially has replaced Knox. He is a piece they can use but not a reason why they are struggling. 

 

Replaced i'd say not just yet . In the passing game yah but Knox can & has when healthy made some pretty remarkable plays for the Bills which is the reason he was resigned .

 

 Use them both to scheme to their strengths for every situation you can't just replace a good player well rarely .

[Mike in Horseheads]

NO!

[BuffaloBillyG]

49 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

I think the offense is considerably more predictable with him out.  

 

His hands have been poor all year.  He has a knack for making that big play on 3rd down or whatever though.  

Both things could easily be said about Davis. Though with Davis he has more success on 1st and 2nd converting for a 1st down (when he catches it)

[First Round Bust]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Knox is the epitome of "jack of all trades- master of none"

 

He does everything that a typical starting TE should be able to do. The biggest problem is he's average in all aspects but paid like a top guy at the position. 

 

The one thing he does have is the ability for those "angry runs" that get some people pulling for him more. He's quite literally the Gabe Davis of TEs.

he is good at pounding beers with Josh and his Bills buddies at Sabres games in Josh suite

[947]

The 12 personnel clearly didn't work the way they expected. But why do we even need to feature 2 TE sets? Our offense works best in a Spread.

 

Kincaid clearly needs to be on the field almost every play, and he isn't really a true TE anyway. Use Kincaid as a slot & Knox at TE, call it 11-personnel, profit. Shakir comes in for 4-WR sets & takes some of Gabe's reps in 2 or 3-WR sets.

[WotAGuy]

1 hour ago, ALLinALLEN said:

Outside of blocking I don't see how losing him would cause this team to score only 1 td while leading in the last 24 quarters (saw this stat somewhere). Especially with Kincaid playing great. 

The Bills have had the lead during the last 24 quarters?  What, for maybe two minutes?  How many TDs can they score in 2 minutes?

[bigduke6]

well,  we did completely rework an offense that relied on 2 above average TEs,  only to have one go down,  and have to revert to 3 WR sets again.  so ya,  he is kind of important.

[BBFL]

2 hours ago, What a Tuel said:

 

The idea that they struggled offensively is silly and not accurate. I know people want to call the eye test or whatever, but its just not accurate.

 

The last 8 games they were scoring nearly 30 points a game and went 7-1 (would've been 8-0 without the Allen fumble against the vikings).

To me, struggling to reduce or negate turnovers is in-fact struggling offensively. 
 

Throughout this season that is the sole reason we’ve lost games… starting slow and turning the bal over isn’t winning formula. 
 

Defense has had let down moments but the offense has had far more. Dorsey was the start to fix the problem, let’s see what else unfolds. 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, billsfan714 said:

No his season high in receiving yards is 25.  If its blocking, throw another tackle next to Spencer.  If you're telling me 15-25 yards is key part of our offense i say we got other problems.

 

another tackle isn't a receiving threat.

 

Part of the reason 12 personnel is theoretically so successful for the passing game is because when you have 2 TEs in the lineup, you're in traditional run formations and the D has to make a choice to either play the run with a traditional 3 LB setup or go into a nickel formation, putting a mismatched smaller DB on either Knox or Kincaid.

 

That was kinda the whole idea of what this offense was moving towards in terms of philosophy for this season.  It was working while Knox was on the field and healthy, regardless of what his actual numbers were.

 

Call him a decoy if you want.  Another tackle would not be a decoy.  And you can't really substitute any other TE we have on the roster for Knox because they aren't the dual (blocker & receiver) threat that he is.

[transplantbillsfan]

42 minutes ago, 947 said:

The 12 personnel clearly didn't work the way they expected. But why do we even need to feature 2 TE sets? Our offense works best in a Spread.

 

Kincaid clearly needs to be on the field almost every play, and he isn't really a true TE anyway. Use Kincaid as a slot & Knox at TE, call it 11-personnel, profit. Shakir comes in for 4-WR sets & takes some of Gabe's reps in 2 or 3-WR sets.

 

It kinda did, though... at least while Knox was healthy.

[Matt_In_NH]

correlation/causation

[PBF81]

They are a lot of ways that they could be using just about everyone on our offense, but don't.  

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

6 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

correlation/causation

 

straw man...

 

I can play the logical fallacy game, too 

 

Let me know if you actually want to talk about it.

[YoloinOhio]

Why so they can more evenly distribute the drops?

[Matt_In_NH]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

straw man...

 

I can play the logical fallacy game, too 

 

Let me know if you actually want to talk about it.

its not fallacy, two things being correlated does not mean event A caused event B.  It is not very logical that Dawson Knox is the key to the Bills offensive success.

[billsfan714]

23 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

another tackle isn't a receiving threat.

 

Part of the reason 12 personnel is theoretically so successful for the passing game is because when you have 2 TEs in the lineup, you're in traditional run formations and the D has to make a choice to either play the run with a traditional 3 LB setup or go into a nickel formation, putting a mismatched smaller DB on either Knox or Kincaid.

 

That was kinda the whole idea of what this offense was moving towards in terms of philosophy for this season.  It was working while Knox was on the field and healthy, regardless of what his actual numbers were.

 

Call him a decoy if you want.  Another tackle would not be a decoy.  And you can't really substitute any other TE we have on the roster for Knox because they aren't the dual (blocker & receiver) threat that he is.

Sorry I must of missed the defensive  mismatches with Knox's season high 25 yards.in game.   Im sure hes keeping D coordinators up at night.

 

[transplantbillsfan]

11 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

its not fallacy, two things being correlated does not mean event A caused event B.  It is not very logical that Dawson Knox is the key to the Bills offensive success.

 

It's not logical to you only because of his lack of tangible offensive production.  Knox was on the field more than Kincaid was when he was healthy and during that stint that Knox was there and healthy, the offense was its most productive.

 

It's not everything.  But it's not nothing.

[transplantbillsfan]

18 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Why so they can more evenly distribute the drops?

 

Is this actually the Yolo we all know from (what now seems like) way back when?