Ed Oliver OUT Sunday

[MasterStrategist]

9 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

You realize BY FAR this team has the fewest Man Games lost to injury in the NFL over his tenure, right?  Like I am talking about 2nd place is not even in the rearview mirror on a long straight road if you want a driving analogy. People simply don't understand how many players are injured on other teams...far more than on the Bills.

 

Last year the Bills had 140 man games lost to injury, 4th lowest in the NFL. Tennessee had almost 350 by comparison! Year before that a team had over 400! Every year under McD Bills have been top 5 fewest man games lost, with 140 being the MOST they have ever had...usually its between 100-120, including least in the NFL twice and under 100 once.

 

We think injuries were bad last year and by comparison to previous Bills teams under McD they were...but compared to the rest of the NFL they are still very much far better off.

I'm not trying to sway anyone's opinion on this topic.  But I think another metric is Cap space lost/missed.

 

One thing to have backups miss games, but you need to "normalize"/adjust for the fact we are missing significantly paid players.

 

I haven't looked at this metric for all teams, just for us right now:

1. Players on IR: $33.9m of our 2023 cap

2. Total 2023 team cap=$225m

 

Thats 15% of our cap, practically flushed down the toilet this season.  And that's just our IR guys, Tre/Milano/Jones.  Would have to add in impacts of 4/17ths of Von, 1/17th Groot, 1/17th Ed, etc etc to get a true picture.

 

So yes, man games lost is important.  But who those players are/impact on cap is just as if not more important perspective to consider.

 

1 more example just on IR, Baltimore Ravens: from 2021, when they got really snake bit - 48.5m IR of 182.8m total (26%).  They finished the year 8-9, Lamar had a down year and missed 4 games too.

 

It would be interesting if any advanced stats on "missed cap" stats were compiled.

 

 

https://x.com/agetzenberg/status/1715396746061156530?s=20

 

Interesting development perhaps on Ed.

 

Coach ruled him out this week but didn't say he'd miss practice.  So perhaps just encouraging for the TNF TB game.

[Brand J]

40 minutes ago, Gregg said:

Allen and company will score more than 30 points. Injuries or no injuries the Pats won't match the Bills score for score.

I thought the same going into the Giants game. GMen had given up no less than 24 pts in every game and had just allowed Miami to run and pass up and down the field to the tune of over 500 yards. The Bills had 0 points through three quarters against that same group. Just never know.

[Big Turk]

Just now, MasterStrategist said:

I'm not trying to sway anyone's opinion on this topic.  But I think another metric is Cap space lost/missed.

 

One thing to have backups miss games, but you need to "normalize"/adjust for the fact we are missing significantly paid players.

 

I haven't looked at this metric for all teams, just for us right now:

1. Players on IR: $33.9m of our 2023 cap

2. Total 2023 team cap=$225m

 

Thats 15% of our cap, practically flushed down the toilet this season.  And that's just our IR guys, Tre/Milano/Jones.  Would have to add in impacts of 4/17ths of Von, 1/17th Groot, 1/17th Ed, etc etc to get a true picture.

 

So yes, man games lost is important.  But who those players are/impact on cap is just as if not more important perspective to consider.

 

1 more example just on IR, Baltimore Ravens: from 2021, when they got really snake bit - 48.5m IR of 182.8m total (26%).  They finished the year 8-9, Lamar had a down year and missed 4 games too.

 

It would be interesting if any advanced stats on "missed cap" stats were compiled.

 

 

 

Baltimore ALWAYS have tons of injuries and former players have BLASTED their training staff on social media over the past 2 years for their rehab/training protocols which they claim get them injured more frequently and end up making them get hurt worse by trying to rush them back.  Also were voted the worst training staff in the NFL by players so that's not nothing either.  Injury management/prevention is definitely a thing that can be controlled to a larger degree than most people think.  Not the obvious serious injuries like tears and freak plays where someone rolls up on a player, etc, but in terms of making sure a slight injury doesn't turn into a moderate injury and a moderate injury doesn't turn into a season-ending injury, etc, it definitely can be and some teams do a far better job of that than others in terms of prioritizing treatments, type of treatments, rest days, etc.

[BBFL]

Well this is a little rough. Guess it’s time for Poona and Settle to step up with Phillips. Got to believe Rousseau is going to see a decent amount of rotations inside seeing as he’s had success there. 
 

Time to stack the box and make Mac Jones beat us. Can’t let Stevenson and Elliot gain any confidence. 

[Bills!Win!]

After the past 2 years the injuries don’t phase me any more 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

Perhaps that's why the 1-2 game injuries don't turn into the 3-4 game injuries like other teams have after they try to play hurt and injure it worse?

 

 

The flip side is an effort like the DL gave in that Cinci playoff game.   Just gutless.   I think the general mentality in football is to push thru injuries,  take the needle and if you don't then someone might take your job and that creates an urgency to be available and perform.  And then succeeding thru adversity builds character.    Everyone is hurt by the time the playoffs begin but they have always wilted in the playoffs defensively and that could be a factor of not laying the foundation needed in-season to succeed deep into the postseason. 

[MasterStrategist]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Baltimore ALWAYS have tons of injuries and former players have BLASTED their training staff on social media over the past 2 years for their rehab/training protocols which they claim get them injured more frequently and end up making them get hurt worse by trying to rush them back.  Also were voted the worst training staff in the NFL by players so that's not nothing either.  Injury management/prevention is definitely a thing that can be controlled to a larger degree than most people think.  Not the obvious serious injuries like tears and freak plays where someone rolls up on a player, etc, but in terms of making sure a slight injury doesn't turn into a moderate injury and a moderate injury doesn't turn into a season-ending injury, etc, it definitely can be and some teams do a far better job of that than others in terms of prioritizing treatments, type of treatments, rest days, etc.

All this makes sense.

 

My post was just to point out another "statistic" that would be interesting/helpful to use in comparisons, when assessing how bad our injury situation has been/impact on team.

 

IMO, I don't think we're too conservative with injuries either.  We have state of the art training facilities/top end staff, if anything we are ahead of the NFL curve in certain aspects.  Just poor luck with some key guys.

[RobbRiddick]

49 minutes ago, Bogie_Klinkhammer said:

ED has a toe 

No wonder he can't play if he only has one toe

[BBFL]

6 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said:

After the past 2 years the injuries don’t phase me any more 

Josh 100% would. 

#PhaseRunner

[HappyDays]

It's a foot/toe strain and doesn't appear to be serious. Per my usual source.

[machine gun kelly]

57 minutes ago, JÂy RÛßeÒ said:

we ready for another game like the one here 2 years ago where they passed 3 times cause they could run whenever they wanted to?

There were 60 mph winds that day, and they had a slightly better team.  Although breezy Sunday, it won’t be anything like that night in Buffalo.

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

No wonder he can't play if he only has one toe

 

I've had what I can only imagine was similar to turf toe and it hurt so bad I couldn't even put any pressure on it to walk...couldn't even imagine trying to run and play football on something like that.

[RobbRiddick]

7 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

I thought the same going into the Giants game. GMen had given up no less than 24 pts in every game and had just allowed Miami to run and pass up and down the field to the tune of over 500 yards. The Bills had 0 points through three quarters against that same group. Just never know.

 

Yeah, I'll believe it when it happens. We tend to get very cocky about the Bills when they play bad teams when in actual fact they've played down to the opponent enough times over the years for me to never take anything for granted. Maybe I'm just an eternal pessimist but it wouldn't surprise me to see Mac Jones play his best game of the season, even if we end up winning.

 

I'd love a game where we can relax in the 4th quarter and think about the next game 

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

It's a foot/toe strain and doesn't appear to be serious. Per my usual source.

 

nice. Did he say anything else about the Harris injury?

12 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

I thought the same going into the Giants game. GMen had given up no less than 24 pts in every game and had just allowed Miami to run and pass up and down the field to the tune of over 500 yards. The Bills had 0 points through three quarters against that same group. Just never know.

 

Daboll didn't know every answer to the test that he could give the DC with Miami tho.  

 

Wink Martindale was coaching D against us like he just got kicked off Tic Tac Dough.

 

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by Big Turk

[BuffaloBillyG]

Still think he's going to be out. Likely means he has a chance to play Thursday. A good sign indeed.

[RobbRiddick]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

It's a foot/toe strain and doesn't appear to be serious. Per my usual source.

Every time you mention your source I imagine this guy

 

 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

49 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Our elite offense needs to get off the rollercoaster carry the weight.   

Are we saying the Giants defense is better?  I just have zero confidence in predicting what the offense is going to look like on any given day.

Giants defense is better than the pats missing Gonzalez/judon. Dexter Lawrence is incredible idk how he doesn’t get more league wide hype   Part of it was definitely Daboll pretty much knowing exactly what we were going to do all game long too though lol 

 

Giants defense has been getting screwed all year by their abysmal offense 

[julian]

21 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Other teams lose plenty of crucial starters too...Look at San Fran for instance.  Bills did have 4th or 5th most DVOA lost to starters last year, so they were relatively high on that list, but 49ers lost their starting QB...TWICE! Imagine the Bills losing Josh, replacing him with Kyle, then losing him and replacing him with Barkley and STILL going to the Championship Game. Mind boggling how Shanahan's offense makes QB's almost irrelevant.  

Got it, I think QB is obviously in a group of its own and much more predictive of outcome due to injury, maybe other position losses are more difficult to fully judge impact, IDK.

 

 The DVOA you cited is very interesting, thanks for your take.

[SWATeam]

8 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Daboll didn't know every answer to the test that he could give the DC with Miami tho.  

 

I will add this to the ever growing list of excuses.  Funny I didn't hear much about this heading into the game.  I'm sure you had it as being close though?

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, julian said:

Got it, I think QB is obviously in a group of its own and much more predictive of outcome due to injury, maybe other position losses are more difficult to fully judge impact, IDK.

 

 The DVOA you cited is very interesting, thanks for your take.

 

He is a great twitter follow for this, btw...

 

 

[zow2]

Good, McDermott is probably giving these guys unofficial "vet rest" games if they are dinged up a bit.  I'm sure if it was the playoffs he'd be in there this Sunday.  Keep the team as healthy as they can for the long haul.

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

I will add this to the ever growing list of excuses.  Funny I didn't hear much about this heading into the game.  I'm sure you had it as being close though?

 

Didn't think it would be that important, but clearly it was. That's why they play the games on the field and not on paper.

Edited October 20, 2023 by Big Turk

[Bob Jones]

Earlier this week I thought somebody made a real good point when they said that all these injuries may be indirectly caused because these players virtually never go full speed/full contact in practice. 40 years ago in HS, we went full pads and full contact every practice, and I never got hurt! 😉😂

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

sure, why not?

 

why not lose a couple more starters while we're at it?

 

indian burial ground man

 

[I'm Spartacus]

Time for Poona the fire hydrant to show up and justify the preseason hype he was getting to come here.

[julian]

40 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

He is a great twitter follow for this, btw...

 

 

Awesome, thanks brother

[Franco_92]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

It's a foot/toe strain and doesn't appear to be serious. Per my usual source.

Sean also said Milano had his surgery - do you know if it's confirmed that his ACL is ok/new odds on him being healed in January? 

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Gregg said:

Allen and company will score more than 30 points. Injuries or no injuries the Pats won't match the Bills score for score.

 

We said that re: the Giants as well, who were playing with their backup QB.  

 

 

1 hour ago, Bob Jones said:

Earlier this week I thought somebody made a real good point when they said that all these injuries may be indirectly caused because these players virtually never go full speed/full contact in practice. 40 years ago in HS, we went full pads and full contact every practice, and I never got hurt! 😉😂

 

Or because our defense is such a hyper defense that is so fast-paced.  The downside is that it obviously creates concern for whether or not they can keep that quasi-frenetic pace up.  IMO that's a source for a lot of these injuries.  I could very well be off though.  

 

 

[HOUSE]

Belichick will run the ball 55 times

Yes, he is that crazy.....

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I think @Coach Tuesday point is that they tend to be hyper-cautious with injuries.   And I do wonder if that creates an "oh I'm hurt, shouldn't play full speed" mentality with a guy like Ed Oliver that contributes to his disappearances every time he gets knicked up.    I thought Groot played tentative last game as well coming off an injury that didn't even take him out of the Miami game two weeks earlier.    Does their abundance of caution help or enable/create excuses for effort falling off. 

 

 

Yeah I mean it sounds like Oliver has a stubbed toe, basically - he has a history of foot injuries that crop up just when he's starting to come on strong, and which tend to become excuses for his leveling-off or missing time.  Now they're ruling him out for a divisional road game where they are already thin at the position, against a power-running team.  Really he can't suit up at least as a rotational pass rush option?  It just seems like it's a bit too easy for players to tap out under this regime.

Edited October 20, 2023 by Coach Tuesday

[Xwnyer]

NE a will run the ball up the middle all day long and toss in some nice play action. 

[Special K]

2 hours ago, Gregg said:

Allen and company will score more than 30 points. Injuries or no injuries the Pats won't match the Bills score for score.

 

That's exactly what we were saying before the Giants game!!🙂

 

I do agree with you, but nothing is a guarantee.

 

If the Bills played the Pats 10 times, the Bills would win 9 out of 10 times, but there's always that one.

[buffblue]

Time to fire up Rhamondre Stevenson in fantasy. Gonna be a challenge against the run. Hopefully the good offense shows up and it becomes a moot point.

 

Really sucks about Oliver. This is such a critical game for staying in the division race with the Dolphins, even if they lose to Philly. Can't go to 1-2 AFC East and 2-3 AFC with the Bengals the next conference team on the schedule. 

Edited October 20, 2023 by buffblue

[Big Turk]

43 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

Sean also said Milano had his surgery - do you know if it's confirmed that his ACL is ok/new odds on him being healed in January? 

 

I thought they already said ACL was fine

6 minutes ago, buffblue said:

Time to fire up Rhamondre Stevenson in fantasy. Gonna be a challenge against the run. Hopefully the good offense shows up and it becomes a moot point.

 

Really sucks about Oliver. This is such a critical game for staying in the division race with the Dolphins, even if they lose to Philly. Can't go to 1-2 AFC East and 2-3 AFC with the Bengals the next conference team on the schedule. 

 

You realize the Pats have among the worst OLine and the worst running game in the NFL this year right?  It's not like normal where they still can run the ball. They are 31st in both running and passing this year and Stephenson hasn't even hit 60 yards in a game and is averaging under 3 YPC.

23 minutes ago, Bogie_Klinkhammer said:

Belichick will run the ball 55 times

Yes, he is that crazy.....

 

For 125 yards.  Good luck.

Edited October 20, 2023 by Big Turk

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, JÂy RÛßeÒ said:

we ready for another game like the one here 2 years ago where they passed 3 times cause they could run whenever they wanted to?

 

May a panda sit on your head.

[BananaB]

Hope the O gets their ***** together

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Gregg said:

No surprise as he wasn't practicing the past 2 days. Hopefully he can be ready by Thursday for Tampa Bay.

 

I'm thinking that may in part underlie the decision for him to be out....he was either going to play but be hampered Sunday then not be able to recover for Tampa, or, he might be able to play vs. Tampa if he's out now.

 

This is not gonna be pretty, No Lie.

[SoonerBillsFan]

3 hours ago, BigDingus said:

This is reminding me of last year again... Multiple key defensive players out every game 😓

 

Just can't catch a break. 

IF this keeps up, Terry needs to find out WTH is going on with our strength and conditioning staff

[GunnerBill]

That sucks. Tim Settle, Jordan Phillips, Poona Ford and Kendal Vickers. Yikes. 

 

Good job the Patriots suck. 

[buffblue]

16 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

You realize the Pats have among the worst OLine and the worst running game in the NFL this year right?  It's not like normal where they still can run the ball. They are 31st in both running and passing this year and Stephenson hasn't even hit 60 yards in a game and is averaging under 3 YPC.

And you realize that the Pats oline has been decimated by injuries but are likely getting back 3 of their 4 best lineman this week in Onwenu, Strange, and Brown, yes? 

Edited October 20, 2023 by buffblue