OK all you smart guys...

[Dan Darragh]

I'm tired of reading about how Davis "isn't a good WR2 but he'd make a decent WR3." Can any of you provide a coherent explanation what the qualities of a good WR3 are that are different from a good WR2?

 

(I doubt it.)

 

[Dr.Sack]

1 minute ago, Dan Darragh said:

I'm tired of reading about how Davis "isn't a good WR2 but he'd make a decent WR3." Can any of you provide a coherent explanation what the qualities of a good WR3 are that are different from a good WR2?

 

(I doubt it.)

 

I think more and more a good WR2 is someone who plays from the slot a la St-Brown, or someone who has WR1 talent but plays behind an All-Pro ala Devonta Smith, Jalen Waddle, Tee Higgins pre-Burrow injury. 

[SCBills]

Davis doesn’t win off the LOS quick enough to be a reliable chain mover.  
 

A WR2 needs to have that in their bag.  
 

It’s a huge reason our offense is so high variance. 

[HappyDays]

Sure. A good WR3 takes advantage of attention given to better pass catchers around him and lesser coverage from depth CBs. That's Davis in a nutshell. His most efficient year was as a rookie in 2020 when he would regularly end up streaking wide open downfield because defenses had so much else to worry about. When defenses can focus on stopping him because he's a full time #2, he loses those advantages and ends up looking like a marginal player.

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by HappyDays

[AlfaBill]

8 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

I'm tired of reading about how Davis "isn't a good WR2 but he'd make a decent WR3." Can any of you provide a coherent explanation what the qualities of a good WR3 are that are different from a good WR2?

 

(I doubt it.)

 

All good answers to your question 

[Heavy Kevi]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Sure. A good WR3 takes advantage of attention given to better pass catchers around him and lesser coverage from depth CBs. That's Davis in a nutshell. His most efficient year was as a rookie in 2020 when he would regularly end up streaking wide open downfield because defenses had so much else to worry about. When defenses can focus on stopping him because he's a full time #2, he loses those advantages and ends up looking like a marginal player.

 

 

This.

 

When there is no attention on him, he feasts.

 

But when they are paying attention, he's not open because he doesn't have the whole route tree; and when you really need it, he drops the ball (in every literal and figurative sense).

 

Hands is probably the biggest problem for him though. I think of a great #2 as a guy who may be physically limited enough to keep him from being a #1, but understands the game enough to be in the right place, and to CATCH the ball when it matters.

 

Hines ward. Cole Beasley. wes welker. Julian Edelman. Some examples that fit that mold of not physically gifted but gamers when it matters. And the prototype at WR2.

 

Not sure how much $.02 is worth these days with inflation, but there's mine 

[SoCal Deek]

Two important qualities:

 

1. Catch the ball when thrown to you.

2. Hold onto the ball after catching the ball thrown to you. 
 

Any questions?

[NickelCity]

We're starving for receivers who can separate reliably (outside of diggs). It's completely choking the offense. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Dan Darragh said:

I'm tired of reading about how Davis "isn't a good WR2 but he'd make a decent WR3." Can any of you provide a coherent explanation what the qualities of a good WR3 are that are different from a good WR2?

 

(I doubt it.)

 

 

 

This sh!t has been explained ad nauseam and you act like it's never been explored here on TSW.   

 

It's as clear as day.......... @HappyDays explained it well.

 

He only runs a few routes well and he needs lesser coverage players across from him to be a more consistent version of himself.   If he's getting 6 targets a game with a CB1 or CB2 across from him......with his limitations........his mistakes are going to pile up and be costly.   

[Richard Noggin]

I'd say catch percentage is a pretty good measure of reliability/efficiency, which is pretty damned important for whomever gets the 2nd most targets on a given offense. While Davis has ridiculously high YPC numbers over his career, he also has ridiculously LOW catch% numbers, meaning he's a dangerous deep threat but definitely not a go-to guy. Targeting Davis is nearly a 50/50 proposition, which is unacceptably inefficient.

 

Diggs caught 10 of 16 targets today, for example, which was actually really BAD for him (but still over 60%). He's usually MUCH more efficient. 

[Dan Darragh]

51 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Two important qualities:

 

1. Catch the ball when thrown to you.

2. Hold onto the ball after catching the ball thrown to you. 
 

Any questions?

Yes.

 

If you can't do either one, does that make you a decent WR3?

[SoCal Deek]

3 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

Yes.

 

If you can't do either one, does that make you a decent WR3?

I maintain it doesn’t make you much of a WR at all. Now, I’m not a Davis hater but I have to wonder what this team is doing with him. He seems like a total afterthought in this offense.

Edited October 16, 2023 by SoCal Deek

[PatsFanNH]

4 hours ago, SCBills said:

Davis doesn’t win off the LOS quick enough to be a reliable chain mover.  
 

A WR2 needs to have that in their bag.  
 

It’s a huge reason our offense is so high variance. 

So by your definition Meyers (LV Raiders WR now) is a good WR 2.

[JimBob2232]

This is a really good thread. I haven’t thought of it much. Gabe is a solid WR and had come up big for us many times.  I don’t get lost in #2 vs #3 - but what we are really missing is that underneath player who plays the slot.   Someone in the Welker/Beasley/Kupp mold.   That would make a huge difference.  I think we thought Kinkaid would be that guy. So far haven’t seen it.  Might be play calling - but that rol would be huge for exploiting the passing game and freeing up Gabe. 
 

I hope we re-sign Gabe, but I suspect he will command more than I’d be comfortable with and we’ll watch him explode somewhere else in a couple years. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

4 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Two important qualities:

 

1. Catch the ball when thrown to you.

2. Hold onto the ball after catching the ball thrown to you. 
 

Any questions?

 

 

3 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

I'd say catch percentage is a pretty good measure of reliability/efficiency, which is pretty damned important for whomever gets the 2nd most targets on a given offense. While Davis has ridiculously high YPC numbers over his career, he also has ridiculously LOW catch% numbers, meaning he's a dangerous deep threat but definitely not a go-to guy. Targeting Davis is nearly a 50/50 proposition, which is unacceptably inefficient.

 

Diggs caught 10 of 16 targets today, for example, which was actually really BAD for him (but still over 60%). He's usually MUCH more efficient. 

Gabe Davis has caught 70% of the balls thrown to him this year. (21 catches on 30 targets). Most of his catches have been for 1st down or TDs. He's having the most efficient season of his career by FAR.

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by BuffaloBillyG

[PatsFanNH]

3 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

I'd say catch percentage is a pretty good measure of reliability/efficiency, which is pretty damned important for whomever gets the 2nd most targets on a given offense. While Davis has ridiculously high YPC numbers over his career, he also has ridiculously LOW catch% numbers, meaning he's a dangerous deep threat but definitely not a go-to guy. Targeting Davis is nearly a 50/50 proposition, which is unacceptably inefficient.

 

Diggs caught 10 of 16 targets today, for example, which was actually really BAD for him (but still over 60%). He's usually MUCH more efficient. 

Targets is a weird stat. The QB could be throwing it away but since the receivers in the area it’s a target to them even though they had zero chance to catch it.

[Matt_In_NH]

I think the answer is the fans want two wr1s.   There is a fascination with wrs.  Not saying it’s not important and more talent would not be better but let’s use the guys we have is my thought.  

2 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Targets is a weird stat. The QB could be throwing it away but since the receivers in the area it’s a target to them even though they had zero chance to catch it.

It’s not funny …with enough samples that is a non factor.  

[PatsFanNH]

3 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I think the answer is the fans want two wr1s.   There is a fascination with wrs.  Not saying it’s not important and more talent would not be better but let’s use the guys we have is my thought.  

It’s not funny …with enough samples that is a non factor.  

That depends on the team. You can have a person who had 20 targets but only 10-12 were really catchable the rest were throw aways or throwing up hoping he make the catch. Gronk had a few games like that because Brady hoped he make a great catch or get a PI call. 

[machine gun kelly]

3 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

I'd say catch percentage is a pretty good measure of reliability/efficiency, which is pretty damned important for whomever gets the 2nd most targets on a given offense. While Davis has ridiculously high YPC numbers over his career, he also has ridiculously LOW catch% numbers, meaning he's a dangerous deep threat but definitely not a go-to guy. Targeting Davis is nearly a 50/50 proposition, which is unacceptably inefficient.

 

Diggs caught 10 of 16 targets today, for example, which was actually really BAD for him (but still over 60%). He's usually MUCH more efficient. 

As always, well written and thought out.  I see his value due to the deep threat, but when you look around the league with teams like Seattle who has Lockett complimenting Metcalf, or Higgins complimenting Chase.

 

We just don’t have a #2, and Davis is not worth an extension.  He was listed at himself post game, amd he should be.

[mrags]

5 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

I'm tired of reading about how Davis "isn't a good WR2 but he'd make a decent WR3." Can any of you provide a coherent explanation what the qualities of a good WR3 are that are different from a good WR2?

 

(I doubt it.)

 

A good #2 doesn’t drop easy catches or fumble the ball?

[MAJBobby]

5 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

I'm tired of reading about how Davis "isn't a good WR2 but he'd make a decent WR3." Can any of you provide a coherent explanation what the qualities of a good WR3 are that are different from a good WR2?

 

(I doubt it.)

 

Sure let’s start with a WR that 

 

1. Runs the entire route tree 

2. A WR that doesn’t make those critical mistakes often (Drop, fumble etc)

3. can be counted on week to week 

4. Consistent production week to week. Not week big production followed by 3 weeks of invisibility 

 

[Mr. WEO]

5 hours ago, SCBills said:

Davis doesn’t win off the LOS quick enough to be a reliable chain mover.  
 

A WR2 needs to have that in their bag.  
 

It’s a huge reason our offense is so high variance. 

 

77% of Davis's career catches resulted in 1st downs.  17% were TDs.

[RunTheBall]

Eh I’ve seen enough of Gabe. Get what we can out of him this year then let him walk.

 

If Dorsey would get his head out of his ass and actually use the middle of the field with Kincaid/Cook/Knox, Gabe would have even better numbers. I don’t really care about his overall stats, I care that he consistently has drive killing drops and the one time he made a guy miss and got some YAC he fumbled yesterday.

 

 

[Matt_In_NH]

42 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

That depends on the team. You can have a person who had 20 targets but only 10-12 were really catchable the rest were throw aways or throwing up hoping he make the catch. Gronk had a few games like that because Brady hoped he make a great catch or get a PI call. 

 

I definitively think it is affected by the QB.   And even on a given team, maybe a QA throws away to one guy more than others....not really sure I agree but I agree its possible.   Your example of Gronk is interested but he did not just get a lions share of throwaways, he also got lots of targets.  I don't think there is a public database that tracks what is being discussed, I could be wrong but I don't know of one.     But stats in general all "depends on the team".  What would Marvin Harrison have done if he were drafted by the Bills and played with the rotating QB's?   

36 minutes ago, mrags said:

A good #2 doesn’t drop easy catches or fumble the ball?

This does not work.....diggs drops the ball and fumbles.   Drop rate I would agree with, Davis does  not have a history of costly fumbles.   But a "Number 2" implies he has some warts that prevents him from being a "Number 1".  What people want is 2 number ones....that is not a bad thing but lets just be honest that is what is really desired.  I would like to see Kincaid get opportunities down the field.

Edited October 16, 2023 by Matt_In_NH

[mrags]

4 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

 

I definitively think it is affected by the QB.   And even on a given team, maybe a QA throws away to one guy more than others....not really sure I agree but I agree its possible.   Your example of Gronk is interested but he did not just get a lions share of throwaways, he also got lots of targets.  I don't think there is a public database that tracks what is being discussed, I could be wrong but I don't know of one.     But stats in general all "depends on the team".  What would Marvin Harrison have done if he were drafted by the Bills and played with the rotating QB's?   

This does not work.....diggs drops the ball and fumbles.   Drop rate I would agree with, Davis does  not have a history of costly fumbles.   But a "Number 2" implies he has some warts that prevents him from being a "Number 1".  What people want is 2 number ones....that is not a bad thing but lets just be honest that is what is really desired.

I was just joking fyi. He didn’t exactly have a great game yesterday. 
 

I think I agree with you btw. Davis is a more than capable, dare I say average to good #2 in this league. He’s probably going to have close to 1,000 yards this year. He’s probably going to have 10+ TDs. Not sure what more you could want out of a #2. 
 

But I will say this. I think you can do better. I also don’t think he’s worth it, nor do I think we have the cap space to pay him his 2nd contract. We should have drafted a WR in this draft in the first 3 rounds to replace him after the season. Instead we drafted a 2nd TE and love not using him. At least in a manner that justifies his first round draft status. 

[Matt_In_NH]

3 hours ago, mrags said:

I was just joking fyi. He didn’t exactly have a great game yesterday. 
 

I think I agree with you btw. Davis is a more than capable, dare I say average to good #2 in this league. He’s probably going to have close to 1,000 yards this year. He’s probably going to have 10+ TDs. Not sure what more you could want out of a #2. 
 

But I will say this. I think you can do better. I also don’t think he’s worth it, nor do I think we have the cap space to pay him his 2nd contract. We should have drafted a WR in this draft in the first 3 rounds to replace him after the season. Instead we drafted a 2nd TE and love not using him. At least in a manner that justifies his first round draft status. 

They should not be the team that signs him to a big second contract.  That would be a terrible decision.

Edited October 16, 2023 by Matt_In_NH

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

I'm tired of reading about how Davis "isn't a good WR2 but he'd make a decent WR3." Can any of you provide a coherent explanation what the qualities of a good WR3 are that are different from a good WR2?

 

(I doubt it.)

 

 

 

It's not about position or specific skill sets. Those are about slots and Ys and Xs and deep threats and so on. There is no specific definition of skills required by a #2. a guy who gets better can become a #1 or a #2 without changing position or skill set. Equally a guy who regresses can be said to no longer be a #1 or a #2, also without changing skill sets.

 

A #3 isn't among the top 50 or so  receivers in the game. 

 

#3s and #2s are just general terms referring to how good a receiver is.  Since most folks use the term #1 not to refer to among the top 32 or so guys in the league but instead to refer to "true #1" types who are generally considered to be among the best fifteen or so in the league, #2s are about the next 30 - 40 best. 

 

#3s are the next 30 - 40 or so after that.

 

And Davis absolutely is a #2. Not among the best of them, although he's trending up and may get there. But he's a solid #2.

 

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Thurman#1

[SCBills]

31 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

77% of Davis's career catches resulted in 1st downs.  17% were TDs.

How many catches does he average per game in a pass heavy offense?

1 hour ago, PatsFanNH said:

So by your definition Meyers (LV Raiders WR now) is a good WR 2.

Seems like a weird statement to make based on what I posted. 

[Niagara Dude]

6 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

I'm tired of reading about how Davis "isn't a good WR2 but he'd make a decent WR3." Can any of you provide a coherent explanation what the qualities of a good WR3 are that are different from a good WR2?

 

(I doubt it.)

 

Davis is a mediocre WR and has no business being a #2 WR,  this team has issues last season with WR getting separation. It was so bad the resigned Brown and Beasely.  Yet our GM brings in some more street bums and wastes draft capital on a TE after overpaying his current starting TE Knox.

[Thurman#1]

11 minutes ago, SCBills said:

How many catches does he average per game in a pass heavy offense?

 

 

If catches were the only qualification, that would be important. Production is what makes you good. Davis produces, and well within the level of the top 50 guys.

 

TDs and yards produced are the type of things you look at. James Lofton didn't have a ton of catches either. But he got a lot of big plays and production. Other guys are more possession guys. It's still about production. They can still be terrific receivers depending how good they are and how important to their team. Production.

 

Davis is absolutely a #2. It's not even a question.  He's in a 5-way tie for 4th in TDs. That will change once today's games are counted, but he'll be easily within the range you'd expect of a #2.  He's 27th in yards. That also will change with the new numbers, but again, very easily within the expectations for a #2. This ain't rocket science.

 

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Niagara Dude]

44 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Sure let’s start with a WR that 

 

1. Runs the entire route tree 

2. A WR that doesn’t make those critical mistakes often (Drop, fumble etc)

3. can be counted on week to week 

4. Consistent production week to week. Not week big production followed by 3 weeks of invisibility 

 

I preferred Beane trade Davis now over losing him in the offseason for nothing.  No way can he pay this guy who is a terrible route runner,  has endless drops and biggest reason why this offence struggles

[SCBills]

10 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

If catches were the only qualification, that would be important. Production is what makes you good. Davis produces, and well within the level of the top 50 guys.

 

TDs and yards produced are the type of things you look at. James Lofton didn't have a ton of catches either. But he got a lot of big plays and production. Other guys are more possession guys. It's still about production. They can still be terrific receivers depending how good they are and how important to their team. Production.

 

Davis is absolutely a #2. It's not even a question.  He's in a 5-way tie for 4th in TDs. That will change once today's games are counted, but he'll be easily within the range you'd expect of a #2.  He's 27th in yards. That also will change with the new numbers, but again, very easily within the expectations for a #2. This ain't rocket science.

 

 

Thats a lot of words to tell me Josh Allen should trust Gabe Davis to quickly get open on a 3rd and 6. 
 

He doesn’t. 
 

Because Gabe doesn’t.  
 

A WR2 should be able to be counted on to do that.  
 

Because Gabe doesn’t, and hes supposed to be our WR2, our offense is Diggs or bust.

 

It’s why we’re so high variance… one game hot, one game cold.   What did Gabe do against the NYJ, the NYG..?  How did our Offense look? 
 

He had 6/100/1 against Jax and most of that production didn’t occur until very late.   How did our offense look until very late?
 

They are related. 

Gabe Davis defenders can act like this is all somehow not related and simplistically look at box scores, but the fact he can’t be relied upon to run a full route tree and uncover quickly on a 3rd and short / 3rd and medium is a big reason we’re so up and down. 

[Mr. WEO]

21 minutes ago, SCBills said:

How many catches does he average per game in a pass heavy offense?

Seems like a weird statement to make based on what I posted. 

 

 

That's up to his QB. Last year he had 93 targets in 16 games at 6 per in an Offense that ranked 8th in pass attempts.

 

This year's "pass heavy offense" is 15th in attempts.  35% of those have been to one roster player.   Last night Diggs had 16 of Allen's throws go his way (caught 10, one for 28 yards)--zero to any RB.  

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Thats a lot of words to tell me Josh Allen should trust Gabe Davis to quickly get open on a 3rd and 6. 
 

He doesn’t. 
 

Because Gabe doesn’t.  
 

A WR2 should be able to be counted on to do that.  
 

Because Gabe doesn’t, and hes supposed to be our WR2, our offense is Diggs or bust.

 

It’s why we’re so high variance… one game hot, one game cold.   What did Gabe do against the NYJ, the NYG..?  How did our Offense look? 
 

He had 6/100/1 against Jax and most of that production didn’t occur until very late.   How did our offense look until very late?
 

They are related. 

Gabe Davis defenders can act like this is all somehow not related and simplistically look at box scores, but the fact he can’t be relied upon to run a full route tree and uncover quickly on a 3rd and short / 3rd and medium is a big reason we’re so up and down. 

 

 

link?

[nedboy7]

I defend this team endlessly.  I am fully on board with a new WR2 and OC.  Throw in a new RT as well. 

[EasternOHBillsFan]

5 hours ago, NickelCity said:

We're starving for receivers who can separate reliably (outside of diggs). It's completely choking the offense. 

 

My wife said this last night completely unprompted, and she's a Colts fan... I'm so wrapped up in the total game that she noticed. You have something here it looks like.

[Don Otreply]

5 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

Yes.

 

If you can't do either one, does that make you a decent WR3?

Your not even trying, how’s about reading the replies you are purposefully ignoring, the answer has already been given to you. 

[T master]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

This sh!t has been explained ad nauseam and you act like it's never been explored here on TSW.   

 

It's as clear as day.......... @HappyDays explained it well.

 

He only runs a few routes well and he needs lesser coverage players across from him to be a more consistent version of himself.   If he's getting 6 targets a game with a CB1 or CB2 across from him......with his limitations........his mistakes are going to pile up and be costly.   

 

POPPY #### I SAY POPPY #### !!! 😅

[Straight Hucklebuck]

6 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

I'm tired of reading about how Davis "isn't a good WR2 but he'd make a decent WR3." Can any of you provide a coherent explanation what the qualities of a good WR3 are that are different from a good WR2?

 

(I doubt it.)

 

Why is Stefon Diggs a #1 WR in this league? 

 

Is he the fastest? No. 

 

Is he the tallest? No. 

 

Is he a rocked up tackle-breaker? No. 

 

It's because he's an outstanding route runner, agile, great hands, improvises well, competitive, and has just enough speed to threaten teams deep. He's a balanced WR with some of everything.  

 

Gabe is stiff. We saw Week 1 that he rounds his routes and that created an Allen interception. We know he can't and doesn't run a full route tree. We know Gabe has inconsistent hands. Last night he fumbled. He runs in the 4.5's. 

 

Gabe is a limited player who makes the occasional big play. But he is not a sustaining player to use a Greg Cosell term. He's not a chain mover. 

 

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I don’t know what I want from a WR2 but all I know is I screamed “GET DOWN” when he tried running after the catch.

 

It’s like if you see a toddler doing something you know they shouldn’t be doing and something bad is about to happen? Thats Gabe Davis attempting to run after catch.

 

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

 

Seems like a weird statement to make based on what I posted. 

Lol you said a good WR2 is a first down machine, and that’s what Meyers is.