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Dan Darragh

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9 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I don’t know what I want from a WR2 but all I know is I screamed “GET DOWN” when he tried running after the catch.

 

It’s like if you see a toddler doing something you know they shouldn’t be doing and something bad is about to happen? Thats Gabe Davis attempting to run after catch.

 

 

And he makes that SAME mistake year after year. He simply cannot help himself. Gabe! Just stay down…..please. 

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6 minutes ago, SCBills said:


Thats a lot of words to tell me Josh Allen should trust Gabe Davis to quickly get open on a 3rd and 6. 
 

He doesn’t. 
 

Because Gabe doesn’t.  
 

A WR2 should be able to be counted on to do that.  
 

Because Gabe doesn’t, and hes supposed to be our WR2, our offense is Diggs or bust.

 

It’s why we’re so high variance… one game hot, one game cold.   What did Gabe do against the NYJ, the NYG..?  How did our Offense look? 
 

He had 6/100/1 against Jax and most of that production didn’t occur until very late.   How did our offense look until very late?
 

They are related. 


Gabe Davis defenders can act like this is all somehow not related and simplistically look at box scores, but the fact he can’t be relied upon to run a full route tree and uncover quickly on a 3rd and short / 3rd and medium is a big reason we’re so up and down. 

 

 

Sorry, man, that's nonsense. First, sometimes he does get open and convert in that kind of a situation.

 

Also nonsense that only one specific kind of receiver is eligible to be a #2. Davis is very productive.  That's what makes him a #2.

 

It's absolute and complete nonsense that Davis is the reason we're so high variance. We have a lot of reasons for that. Gabe certainly bears some responsibility for it. So does Josh. So does everyone, really.

 

Again, the idea that someone isn't a #2 without running a full route tree is nonsense. Plenty of guys in the top 50 have limitations and high variance. 

 

And 3rd and medium to long is a reason why EVERY TEAM is up and down. It's a situation where every team has a harder time. That's the nature of football and the nature of probability.

 

Just some quick examples from looking at highlights from last year: 

 

  • His TD to open the scoring against the Rams last year at 10:04 in the first came on third and one
  • On 3rd and 2 against the Rams at 11:44 in the 2nd he converted the 1st with a nice little eight yard catch.
  • On 3rd and 7, also against the Rams, with 14:47 left in the 4th quarter he put up an extremely long play, well over 40 yards.
  • His 98 yarder last year against the Steelers came on 3rd and 10.
  • On 3rd and 13 against the Chiefs with 1:13 left in the 2nd, he pulled down a 16 yarder. 
  • Against Detroit at 12:54 in the 3rd, Gabe converted a 3rd and 13
  • And in the same game, with 12:15 to go in the 4th he converted a 3rd and 2 with a 5 yard catch.
  • Against the Pats he converted a 3rd and goal a the Pats 8 with a TD at 5:34 in the 2nd, a highlight of the whole season.
  • He converted a 3rd and 17 against Miami at 13:08 in the 2nd.
  • Against the Pats in Buffalo, at 0:35 of the 1st quarter he converted a 3rd and 7 with a catch of roughly 16 yards.
  • Against Miami in Buffalo with 0:18 in the 2nd, he converted a 3rd and 6 with an 18 yarder.
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7 hours ago, SCBills said:

Davis doesn’t win off the LOS quick enough to be a reliable chain mover.  
 

A WR2 needs to have that in their bag.  
 

It’s a huge reason our offense is so high variance. 

 

Yup. The further down the line a player is on the list of receiving options, the less complete he can be. I use the term 'receiving option" because it should include TEs and RBs (though a RB would never be option 1 and very rarely be option 2). Kelsey is probably the only TE who is a #1 option now. Davis qualifies as a third option due to his limitations. That's not to say that it isn't difficult to be a third option in the NFL or that he doesn't have value, but if your team has SB aspirations then they need better at option 2.

Edited by BarleyNY
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29 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

I defend this team endlessly.  I am fully on board with a new WR2 and OC.  Throw in a new RT as well. 

Did you notice how well Van Demark played RT while he was in for Brown? He is your "new" RT, but likely not until 2024.

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14 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Why is Stefon Diggs a #1 WR in this league? 

 

Is he the fastest? No. 

 

Is he the tallest? No. 

 

Is he a rocked up tackle-breaker? No. 

 

It's because he's an outstanding route runner, agile, great hands, improvises well, competitive, and has just enough speed to threaten teams deep. He's a balanced WR with some of everything.  

 

Gabe is stiff. We saw Week 1 that he rounds his routes and that created an Allen interception. We know he can't and doesn't run a full route tree. We know Gabe has inconsistent hands. Last night he fumbled. He runs in the 4.5's. 

 

Gabe is a limited player who makes the occasional big play. But he is not a sustaining player to use a Greg Cosell term. He's not a chain mover. 

 

 

 

 

 

Again, this simply doesn't correspond with reality. 

 

If his big plays were "occasional," he wouldn't get so many TDs and his yards per target wouldn't be so high. 

 

Dumb also to say he's not a chain mover. Over 70% of his catches were 1st downs. 

 

Yes, if you compare him with Diggs, he comes off more poorly. Are you seeing people arguing Davis is better than Diggs? If you are, you'd really have a point here. But nobody makes that argument. Diggs is a clear #1. Compare any #2 in the league with Diggs and they won't measure up. Doesn't mean they aren't solid #2s.

 

The reason #2s are #2s is that they can't do absolutely everything at a high level the way that someone like Diggs can. If they could, they'd be #1s. Gabe is definitely not a #1. He's a #2. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Sorry, man, that's nonsense. First, sometimes he does get open and convert in that kind of a situation.

 

Also nonsense that only one specific kind of receiver is eligible to be a #2. Davis is very productive.  That's what makes him a #2.

 

It's absolute and complete nonsense that Davis is the reason we're so high variance. We have a lot of reasons for that. Gabe certainly bears some responsibility for it. So does Josh. So does everyone, really.

 

Again, the idea that someone isn't a #2 without running a full route tree is nonsense. Plenty of guys in the top 50 have limitations and high variance. 

 

And 3rd and medium to long is a reason why EVERY TEAM is up and down. It's a situation where every team has a harder time. That's the nature of football and the nature of probability.

 

Just some quick examples from looking at highlights from last year: 

 

  • His TD to open the scoring against the Rams last year at 10:04 in the first came on third and one
  • On 3rd and 2 against the Rams at 11:44 in the 2nd he converted the 1st with a nice little eight yard catch.
  • On 3rd and 7, also against the Rams, with 14:47 left in the 4th quarter he put up an extremely long play, well over 40 yards.
  • His 98 yarder last year against the Steelers came on 3rd and 10.
  • On 3rd and 13 against the Chiefs with 1:13 left in the 2nd, he pulled down a 16 yarder. 
  • Against Detroit at 12:54 in the 3rd, Gabe converted a 3rd and 13
  • And in the same game, with 12:15 to go in the 4th he converted a 3rd and 2 with a 5 yard catch.
  • Against the Pats he converted a 3rd and goal a the Pats 8 with a TD at 5:34 in the 2nd, a highlight of the whole season.
  • He converted a 3rd and 17 against Miami at 13:08 in the 2nd.
  • Against the Pats in Buffalo, at 0:35 of the 1st quarter he converted a 3rd and 7 with a catch of roughly 16 yards.
  • Against Miami in Buffalo with 0:18 in the 2nd, he converted a 3rd and 6 with an 18 yarder.

 

Ok, so if Gabe is what you believe him to be (a good WR2)

 

We have an elite QB, elite WR1, good WR2 and a good OL.

 

So what's the problem?  Why do we struggle to move the ball so often, to sustain drives so often?

 

You can give me all the stats you want.. Gabe isn't bad.  He's one of the best deep threats in the league.  He's good on the scramble drill.  However All-22 after All-22 shows he does not uncover quickly and does not run a full route tree.   But, hey, let's act like that's not needed for a WR2 in a pass heavy offense...

 

So, whats the problem?  

 

Because we clearly have two very different views of Gabe... and I think it's becoming more and more obvious that the lack of a quick separation WR2 is a big cause for our Offense up and downs.  You don't.  So what is it?

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5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

This sh!t has been explained ad nauseam and you act like it's never been explored here on TSW.   

 

It's as clear as day.......... @HappyDays explained it well.

 

He only runs a few routes well and he needs lesser coverage players across from him to be a more consistent version of himself.   If he's getting 6 targets a game with a CB1 or CB2 across from him......with his limitations........his mistakes are going to pile up and be costly.   

 

 

I know, totally. And it's only Gabe facing the lesser coverage players, all the other #2s in the league always face the #1 CB that the other team ...

 

Oh, wait, they actually don't. 

 

He runs a lot of routes well, but not all of them, like, you know the other #2s. And yeah, he doesn't face the best CB. Neither do the other #2s most of the time.

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5 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Ok, so if Gabe is what you believe him to be (a good WR2)

 

We have an elite QB, elite WR1, good WR2 and a good OL.

 

So what's the problem?  Why do we struggle to move the ball so often, to sustain drives so often?

 

You can give me all the stats you want.. Gabe isn't bad.  He's one of the best deep threats in the league.  He's good on the scramble drill.  However All-22 after All-22 shows he does not uncover quickly and does not run a full route tree.   But, hey, let's act like that's not needed for a WR2 in a pass heavy offense...

 

So, whats the problem?  

 

Because we clearly have two very different views of Gabe... and I think it's becoming more and more obvious that the lack of a quick separation WR2 is a big cause for our Offense up and downs.  You don't.  So what is it?

 

 

I know, our problems are just huge. We're one of the best offenses in the league and have been for years. Clearly we need to make huge changes.

 

And clearly it's all on Gabe. Except it's not.

 

Gabe had more yards for the Bills than anyone but Diggs. And you blame Gabe? Lots of TDs compared to other receivers. And you blame him? Doesn't make sense.

 

The problem is we're not perfect, but we're really good. Not as good this year as we were last year, at least so far, but blaming the guy who is having a better year this year makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

 

You're right, Gabe isn't bad. He's also not a #1. But for a #2, he's solid.

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I know, our problems are just huge. We're one of the best offenses in the league and have been for years. Clearly we need to make huge changes.

 

And clearly it's all on Gabe. Except it's not.

 

Gabe had more yards for the Bills than anyone but Diggs. And you blame Gabe? Lots of TDs compared to other receivers. And you blame him? Doesn't make sense.

 

The problem is we're not perfect, but we're really good. Not as good this year as we were last year, at least so far, but blaming the guy who is having a better year this year makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

 

You're right, Gabe isn't bad. He's also not a #1. But for a #2, he's solid.

 

 

 

We've played 6 games. 

 

3 games we're a buzzsaw.

 

3 games our offense was TERRIBLE.

 

Sure, average it all up and it looks good.  Thankfully, unlike you, the Bills themselves know we can't win a Super Bowl like this, and need to get much, much better. 

 

Edited by SCBills
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8 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

I'm tired of reading about how Davis "isn't a good WR2 but he'd make a decent WR3." Can any of you provide a coherent explanation what the qualities of a good WR3 are that are different from a good WR2?

 

(I doubt it.)

 

i literally cant believe im still reading this, this isnt complicated.

 

a #2 can consistently get open, have 5+ catches that helps keep defenses honest and MOVE THE FREAKING CHAINS. gabe does not help us sustain drives. he has the occasional random intermediate catch for 20yards, and then his night is done. #1 & #2 should be the pillars, having several catches, moving the chains, and help open things up for one another. #1  & #2 should be release valves to help a QB get in a rhythm and allow the QB to neutralize a pass rush.... if ones not open, the other almost always is

 

bUt GaBe iS oN pAcE fOr 1k yArDs...... 50% of games he disappears, he does NONE OF THIS ^^^^. no offense, but just looking at his season stats as a whole is a completely simpleton way of looking at a player. are you intentionally ignoring your eyes?!  were you pretty happy with  a #2 having 3 catches, 21yards, and a fumble

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4 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

So by your definition Meyers (LV Raiders WR now) is a good WR 2.

This really isnt complicated. Were not breaking down the nuance of Y-Banana Split 2 Zebra Cake... you need to have 2nd mopst targets, catches, yards and help move the chains. When you can reliably move the chains your offense can stay on the field and start to get in a rhythm. 

 

Getting 1st downs is the most basic fundamental goal of an offense. Field position, time of possession, keep the defense fresh, wear their defense out, incorporate more plays/looks which makes defenses have to think more than react.... when you go 3 and out none of that happens.  Getting a first down does so much more than just "move 10yards"

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4 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

 

 

Gabe Davis has caught 70% of the balls thrown to him this year. (21 catches on 30 targets). Most of his catches have been for 1st down or TDs. He's having the most efficient season of his career by FAR.

 

Unacceptable stat lines. He has played better at times, but its not enough. # unacceptable games. If this were in a vacuum, maybe this is OK, but its a continuation of what hes showed his entire career. 

 

Put it this way.... Cole Beasley 50yards or Gabe Davis 50 yards.... same numbers..... which one of the two would be more impactful?

 

Theyre the same number, yet 90% of the board would know which one would be more impactful.

 

image.thumb.png.97165b6c2dcba618162f7c0d70764065.png

4 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

Targets is a weird stat. The QB could be throwing it away but since the receivers in the area it’s a target to them even though they had zero chance to catch it.

Yet every WR is subject to the same variable

Edited by BillsShredder83
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1 minute ago, BillsShredder83 said:

2-3 per game is not enough for a #2. simple

 

i dont understand how anyone could have seen this team, and 2020s team, and not understand why this is killing us

 

I honestly feel like i'm losing my mind when people defend him by throwing aggregated stats out. 

 

We all know he's a top tier deep threat and is capable of big games.  25% of his production last year was in one game.  

 

We have one reliable chain mover.  A WR2 in a pass heavy offense should be able to be relied upon to help shoulder that responsibility.  

 

3rd and 6 and our WR2 is out here running 10+ yard routes because he doesn't have the short separation skillset.  ....and people wonder why our offense can go from explosive to dud so often.

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3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

If catches were the only qualification, that would be important. Production is what makes you good. Davis produces, and well within the level of the top 50 guys.

 

TDs and yards produced are the type of things you look at. James Lofton didn't have a ton of catches either. But he got a lot of big plays and production. Other guys are more possession guys. It's still about production. They can still be terrific receivers depending how good they are and how important to their team. Production.

 

Davis is absolutely a #2. It's not even a question.  He's in a 5-way tie for 4th in TDs. That will change once today's games are counted, but he'll be easily within the range you'd expect of a #2.  He's 27th in yards. That also will change with the new numbers, but again, very easily within the expectations for a #2. This ain't rocket science.

 

 

He would have the same stats as a #3 as a #2.  He can still start on the outside and be a #3. We need someone catching more balls than him. He could easily do all this and maybe more as a #3.... its not like his targets would go down, hes not a reliable option play to play

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2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Again, this simply doesn't correspond with reality. 

 

If his big plays were "occasional," he wouldn't get so many TDs and his yards per target wouldn't be so high. 

 

Dumb also to say he's not a chain mover. Over 70% of his catches were 1st downs. 

 

Yes, if you compare him with Diggs, he comes off more poorly. Are you seeing people arguing Davis is better than Diggs? If you are, you'd really have a point here. But nobody makes that argument. Diggs is a clear #1. Compare any #2 in the league with Diggs and they won't measure up. Doesn't mean they aren't solid #2s.

 

The reason #2s are #2s is that they can't do absolutely everything at a high level the way that someone like Diggs can. If they could, they'd be #1s. Gabe is definitely not a #1. He's a #2. 

 

 

Then by all means Bills, go ahead and sign him to a fat second contract, and he can stay our #2 for foreseeable future. 

 

I have no interest in that, and am where I was last year, we need a high-traits, first round WR. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

He would have the same stats as a #3 as a #2.  He can still start on the outside and be a #3. We need someone catching more balls than him. He could easily do all this and maybe more as a #3.... it’s not like his targets would go down, hes not a reliable option play to play


Totally agree. As much as getting another solid WR would help Allen it would be huge for Gabe in my opinion. He  can focus on what he does best with less attention from opposing defences. 
 

It’s like some people are more worried about his label as the #2 than what’s best for this O. Sadly it’s been a conversation on this board since November last year. Beane tried but he did what Beane does, look for bargains hoping they will break out on our offense. At this point I’d like to see more Shakir and less Hardy. Shakir just seems to make a solid play almost every time he’s targeted right now. 

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2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I know, totally. And it's only Gabe facing the lesser coverage players, all the other #2s in the league always face the #1 CB that the other team ...

 

Oh, wait, they actually don't. 

 

He runs a lot of routes well, but not all of them, like, you know the other #2s. And yeah, he doesn't face the best CB. Neither do the other #2s most of the time.

He runs a post, and a comeback off the post. 

 

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2 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

We've played 6 games. 

 

3 games we're a buzzsaw.

 

3 games our offense was TERRIBLE.

 

Sure, average it all up and it looks good.  Thankfully, unlike you, the Bills themselves know we can't win a Super Bowl like this, and need to get much, much better. 

 

 

One of those games was in London, where Davis caught 6 of 8 targets (including every big pass in the 4thQ on 2 scoring drives) for 100 yards and a TD (2 in a row actually, due to Digg's OPI).  

 

Look, you have staked out a position that you can't defend with anything other than "you guys don't know what you are watching-forget stats....let me make some up!".

 

You're off the rails

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1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

2-3 per game is not enough for a #2. simple

 

i dont understand how anyone could have seen this team, and 2020s team, and not understand why this is killing us

 

there are other guys Josh could be spreading the ball around to...but he's not doing that.   It's all Diggs.  It that Gabe Davis's fault too?  

 

not one target to a RB last night--wtf is that?  Gabe Davis going down for that as well?

 

 

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13 hours ago, SCBills said:

Davis doesn’t win off the LOS quick enough to be a reliable chain mover.  
 

A WR2 needs to have that in their bag.  
 

It’s a huge reason our offense is so high variance. 

100% ,  he is the biggest problem on our offence . Last season Allen asked management to bring back street guys Beasely and Brown.  Why would he do that? 

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

One of those games was in London, where Davis caught 6 of 8 targets (including every big pass in the 4thQ on 2 scoring drives) for 100 yards and a TD (2 in a row actually, due to Digg's OPI).  

 

Look, you have staked out a position that you can't defend with anything other than "you guys don't know what you are watching-forget stats....let me make some up!".

 

You're off the rails

Also dropped a huge pass in the 3rd quarter that forced the Bills to punt.  Some of you Gabe Davis fanboys need to grow up and open your eyes.

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8 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:

100% ,  he is the biggest problem on our offence . Last season Allen asked management to bring back street guys Beasely and Brown.  Why would he do that? 

Also dropped a huge pass in the 3rd quarter that forced the Bills to punt.  Some of you Gabe Davis fanboys need to grow up and open your eyes.

 

the drop was a minute into the 2nd half of a 4 point game.

 

open your eyes...

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Davis is a solid WR but is he more of a WR2 or WR3 is a moot point. The Bills could live with Davis inconsistency if Davis lowered his drop rate a bit and the Bills had a reliable slot WR or TE to take in some over-the-middle completions. The Bills are going to have to hope Kincaid develops into that and maybe they open up Shakir's role more. 

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12 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

I'd say catch percentage is a pretty good measure of reliability/efficiency, which is pretty damned important for whomever gets the 2nd most targets on a given offense. While Davis has ridiculously high YPC numbers over his career, he also has ridiculously LOW catch% numbers, meaning he's a dangerous deep threat but definitely not a go-to guy. Targeting Davis is nearly a 50/50 proposition, which is unacceptably inefficient.

 

Diggs caught 10 of 16 targets today, for example, which was actually really BAD for him (but still over 60%). He's usually MUCH more efficient. 

 

Currently his catch% is 70%, even with 2 drops.  He also has an average depth of target of 14.7 which is 11th in the NFL.  

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Just now, Richard Noggin said:

 

Now do his career, not just the last 5 games. No surprise we'd see a little jump in his contract year.

 

So you want me to do math for you, to prove my point wrong?  No.

 

People lay into this guy like he's the anti-christ.  Hes 27th in the NFL right now TODAY in receiving yards, while playing on a team with a guy who is 3rd in the NFL in receiving yards.  The guy is literally tied for 4th in the NFL in receiving TDs.  

 

He can make contested catches, he's good at tracking deep balls, and he has some toe-drag swag.  He's also a plus blocker.  Those are all traits that teams covet in wide receivers.  

14 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

I think more and more a good WR2 is someone who plays from the slot a la St-Brown, or someone who has WR1 talent but plays behind an All-Pro ala Devonta Smith, Jalen Waddle, Tee Higgins pre-Burrow injury. 

 

So you just named 3 players who have fewer yards, and more targets than Gabe Davis right now - even with Buffalo's offense not playing particularly well all season.  

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5 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

This really isnt complicated. Were not breaking down the nuance of Y-Banana Split 2 Zebra Cake... you need to have 2nd mopst targets, catches, yards and help move the chains. When you can reliably move the chains your offense can stay on the field and start to get in a rhythm. 

 

Getting 1st downs is the most basic fundamental goal of an offense. Field position, time of possession, keep the defense fresh, wear their defense out, incorporate more plays/looks which makes defenses have to think more than react.... when you go 3 and out none of that happens.  Getting a first down does so much more than just "move 10yards"

 

16 first downs on 30 targets is actually pretty good.   Waddle has 16 on 35.  Meyers has 18 on 43.  Ridley has 17 on 44 targets.  Devonta smith has 11 on 45 targets.  

 

The chain mover on a 3rd and 4 isn't gabe davis.  Other teams it might be their WR2, but buffalo has Diggs.  If you have Kupp, Adams, and Diggs (who are imo the best 3 route runners in the league), that should be who you look at to move the chains.  You then have conventional slot options to slip man coverage underneath, and TE's for window throws.  We have all of those things.  

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6 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

So you want me to do math for you, to prove my point wrong?  No.

 

People lay into this guy like he's the anti-christ.  Hes 27th in the NFL right now TODAY in receiving yards, while playing on a team with a guy who is 3rd in the NFL in receiving yards.  The guy is literally tied for 4th in the NFL in receiving TDs.  

 

He can make contested catches, he's good at tracking deep balls, and he has some toe-drag swag.  He's also a plus blocker.  Those are all traits that teams covet in wide receivers.  

 

So you just named 3 players who have fewer yards, and more targets than Gabe Davis right now - even with Buffalo's offense not playing particularly well all season.  

I think most of us would be fine swapping Davis with any of those players. As they have shown they can be a WR 1. Do you think Gabe could step in if Diggs were to miss a game?

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9 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

I preferred Beane trade Davis now over losing him in the offseason for nothing.  No way can he pay this guy who is a terrible route runner,  has endless drops and biggest reason why this offence struggles


They are trying to win a championship this season… they need more receivers …not less

 

Get a comp pick when he moves on which will probably be more value for him then you would get in a trade now 

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3 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:

It was also a key drive to get the team going into the second half

 

 

The Q ended with the same score11-7.  Then Josh and Davis started hitting in the 4th Q.  It the D could have gotten won stop in the last half of the Q, Bills have a comeback win. 

 

The real backbreaker was Diggs letting Darius Williams ***** away  a Josh Allen passion that he had in both hands deep in the 4th Q.

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