Kurt Warner analysis of JA

[Beck Water]

Just now, Buddy Hix said:

I meant that even when he’s got time and not bailing on the pocket, he’s still failing to go through his reads. I worded it poorly.

 

On two of the plays in question, I think Josh went through his reads.  @HoofHearted laid it out.  There's a man-beater route, as soon as Josh sees it's zone on to the zone routes.  There's a conflict defender, as soon as he turns his hips one way, throw the other route.  That's his read.

 

On the third route, IMHO you have a point that I think Josh was telegraphing his intent to throw to Davis all the way.

 

To be honest, on the televised broadcast I can't tell what Josh's reads are on many plays much less if he's in the pocket.  I can tell he bails from the pocket sometimes when he doesn't have to.

[Scott7975]

39 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I get that but you have to be somewhat concerned about all of his turnovers. It's more than a one off. 

 

Also, Allen is 0-5 in OT games as a Bill QB. I'm not sure exactly what that means. Elite franchise QBs have to be clutch and win OT games. This far, it appears Allen hasn't got it done. 

 

Is he really that clutch when the game is on the line? I always thought he was. 

 

 

 

I'm concerned about his turnovers in a game like the Jets. Those games are few and far between and a lot of QBs have multiple turnover games. I'm not concerned when he throws a couple when we are blowing out the other team. The Bills are 47-18 with Josh as a starter. 52-25 if you include his rookie season. Mostly carried the team to those wins.  

 

I'm not worried about his OT record. Some of those were out of his control. It was like people being worried about point differential that one season and it turned out to be a nothing burger to worry about, or Josh never getting a 300 yard passing game, or McDermott's record in one score games.  All turned out to be nothing burgers.

 

Seems to me you are already becoming and oh woe is me our QB sucks guy again.  He doesn't suck.  He is elite. He just had a bad game.

Edited September 16, 2023 by Scott7975

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Seems like there is some truth to our guys when they say they need to execute the play better. 
 

Is it also normal to use the same route combo 3+ times in the same game?

[Scott7975]

48 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

Another point, again, before blaming the WR and Dorsey, is that I believe, basically from just after the snap, that Josh Allen 100%  intends to throw to Davis.  There's no looking towards Diggs or Kincaid.  It looks to me as though he's locked in on Davis all the way, so that's what the defenders do.

 

Thats the read... Diggs motion tells Josh zone defense. Sauce is bringing his coverage to Kincaid. Thats what Josh looks at... where Sauce goes. Davis is the read. I don't know how many times that needs to be said.  People here all complain about timing and holding the ball too long and yadda yadda and then complain when Josh actually reads fast and makes the play.  Unfortunately the result of the play sucked but the read was correct.  Just poor execution by both him and Davis.

[Punching Bag]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If your QB needs Diggs and Harrison to be win you have the wrong QB.

or the wrong OC.  See Chan Gailey who was good a making chicken soup out of chicken scraps. 

[newcam2012]

42 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I'm concerned about his turnovers in a game like the Jets. Those games are few and far between and a lot of QBs have multiple turnover games. I'm not concerned when he throws a couple when we are blowing out the other team. The Bills are 47-18 with Josh as a starter. 52-25 if you include his rookie season. Mostly carried the team to those wins.  

 

I'm not worried about his OT record. Some of those were out of his control. It was like people being worried about point differential that one season and it turned out to be a nothing burger to worry about, or Josh never getting a 300 yard passing game, or McDermott's record in one score games.  All turned out to be nothing burgers.

 

Seems to me you are already becoming and oh woe is me our QB sucks guy again.  He doesn't suck.  He is elite. He just had a bad game.

You definitely misread what I said. I am not in the camp that Allen sucks. Without Allen this team isn't a playoff team. Or at best a fringe playoff team. 100% he has carried the team. 

 

Allen is a top 5 QB and probably a top 3 QB in the entire NFL. He is likely the most physically gifted of everyone. 

 

However, I think it's ok to question your franchise QB. I think a QB can always get better and improve. That's where I believe the Allen topic becomes relevant. How much has he improved from a couple of years ago? Are the turnovers still an issue! Has he improved in reading defenses? Accuracy? Leadership? Playoff wins? 

 

I don't have all the answers and frankly lots of answers I don't know. 

 

As a fan, without digging too deep I feel like sometimes we see too much of the bad Allen. Sometimes I joke with my son and say I hope we get the great Allen today. His ceiling is super high but that floor is low for a franchise QB. Granted all QBs have bad games. But the Jets game was something worse then a bad game. It looked like a rookie version of Allen. Happy feet, eyes all over the place, missing his reads, playing hero ball, panicked, and being worst than reckless. It was hard to watch. 

 

I fully expect Allen to bounce back and play well. He will lead the team to many wins. He will be the main reason why the Bills win. Make no mistake about it. The team only goes as far as Allen takes it. I fully believe that. He has to play at a high level against quality teams. 

 

I'm one happy fan to have Allen in a Bills uniform. He doesn't suck but he surely can play sucky. When he dies he isn't immune to criticism. The Bill lost in Monday because of Josh. It's really that simple. He gave the gave away. 

[Scott7975]

16 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

You definitely misread what I said. I am not in the camp that Allen sucks. Without Allen this team isn't a playoff team. Or at best a fringe playoff team. 100% he has carried the team. 

 

Allen is a top 5 QB and probably a top 3 QB in the entire NFL. He is likely the most physically gifted of everyone. 

 

However, I think it's ok to question your franchise QB. I think a QB can always get better and improve. That's where I believe the Allen topic becomes relevant. How much has he improved from a couple of years ago? Are the turnovers still an issue! Has he improved in reading defenses? Accuracy? Leadership? Playoff wins? 

 

I don't have all the answers and frankly lots of answers I don't know. 

 

As a fan, without digging too deep I feel like sometimes we see too much of the bad Allen. Sometimes I joke with my son and say I hope we get the great Allen today. His ceiling is super high but that floor is low for a franchise QB. Granted all QBs have bad games. But the Jets game was something worse then a bad game. It looked like a rookie version of Allen. Happy feet, eyes all over the place, missing his reads, playing hero ball, panicked, and being worst than reckless. It was hard to watch. 

 

I fully expect Allen to bounce back and play well. He will lead the team to many wins. He will be the main reason why the Bills win. Make no mistake about it. The team only goes as far as Allen takes it. I fully believe that. He has to play at a high level against quality teams. 

 

I'm one happy fan to have Allen in a Bills uniform. He doesn't suck but he surely can play sucky. When he dies he isn't immune to criticism. The Bill lost in Monday because of Josh. It's really that simple. He gave the gave away. 

 

If I were to think about where Allen needs to improve it would be: staying calm. You can literally see when he gets flustered and starts making too many mental mistakes.  He needs to find his zen.  I also think he needs to go back to knowing its ok to take off with the football and run the damn thing.  Just get down or out of bounds instead of fighting for 1 or 2 extra yards AFTER he already got the first down.  Obviously he needs to sometimes take what's given.  I think people sometimes over exaggerate that, but it's true none the less. Sometimes ya just gotta take it.

 

He really doesn't have that many games like the Jets game. That D is fast, disciplined, and vicious.  They seem to know how to push his buttons.  He needs to figure that out.  Once he does though....

[The Frankish Reich]

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Want til you see Max Crosby take him to the woodshed. Bills better have a plan to help out Brown. If not Crosby might have 5 sacks. 

True. Crosby is right up there with the best as a disruptive force. He was all over the place against the Broncos last week.

Brown will have plenty of help, and he'll need it.

[machine gun kelly]

As much as I want to move up a bit in the draft especially as we have several picks next year, but a WR in the 1st would be great.

 

I’ve mostly stayed away from the site this week, and when I did I was not disappointed with the overreaction week.

 
You guys do remember the same thing happened in 2021 when the Steelers beat us in OP.  We then went 11-5 after that game, and we’re 13 seconds away from the AFCCG.

 

Anyway, I’m up in Buffalo with the kids for the family and the game so I’ll decide for myself after watching live.  It’s great as we have lower level seats on the 40 yard line behind the Bills bench so a perfect van at age point.

 

Anyone going, feel free to dm me.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Currently tied for the first pick overall, ya never know.

I know.

 

You don’t know.  That’s expected 

Edited September 16, 2023 by NewEra

[BobbyC81]

6 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Gee basically same thing I said about the Davis play and most disagreed with.  Guess the board knows better than Kurt Warner and Troy Aikman.  Sauce was covering Kincaid.  Josh made the right read to Davis.  Davis route messed that play up.

Then why does Josh keep saying Davis is the smartest WR he’s played with?  Is he smart but runs routes wrong?  That would be coaching.

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

So Burrow is the wrong guy too?  Got it 😂

 

If it falls apart when Tee goes, yes. 

[ganesh]

11 hours ago, Fleezoid said:

In my opinion, this is an indictment on Dorsey. If he didn't design it this way, he's certainly allowed the players to practice it this way. 

long developing plays are not the answer in modern NFL

[NastyNateSoldiers]

12 hours ago, Dr Krentist said:

 

Maybe he's biased because he was a QB but he, not necessarily blames the WRs, but thinks they could have done more to help JA. Goes to show its the little things in every position that can alter or make a play.

This also an indictment on the Wrs coach & McD. The little things like this make all the difference. I can imagine what other routes these guys ain’t running correctly. 

[Pete]

Thank you Kurt, I feel a lot better about Josh’s poor performance MNF.  Much of Josh’s troubles were caused by WR.  The film breakdown lets me appreciate how smooth and nuanced Diggs route running is, and how difficult it is to play QB in the NFL

13 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

This also an indictment on the Wrs coach & McD. The little things like this make all the difference. I can imagine what other routes these guys ain’t running correctly. 

The WR spacing was off throughout the game.  That’s on the WRs and the coaches.  This is WR 101 stuff.  I would read the riot act to coaches and WR

 

4 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

As much as I want to move up a bit in the draft especially as we have several picks next year, but a WR in the 1st would be great.

 

I’ve mostly stayed away from the site this week, and when I did I was not disappointed with the overreaction week.

 
You guys do remember the same thing happened in 2021 when the Steelers beat us in OP.  We then went 11-5 after that game, and we’re 13 seconds away from the AFCCG.

 

Anyway, I’m up in Buffalo with the kids for the family and the game so I’ll decide for myself after watching live.  It’s great as we have lower level seats on the 40 yard line behind the Bills bench so a perfect van at age point.

 

Anyone going, feel free to dm me.

WR in 1st will be very much in play imo.  OT and S are big needs too going forward 

[SoonerBillsFan]

6 hours ago, Limeaid said:

or the wrong OC.  See Chan Gailey who was good a making chicken soup out of chicken scraps. 

Somehow this thought occurred to me the other day, Could you imagine what Chan Gailey could do with this offense? Josh, Diggs, Knox, Kincaid?  It would have been interesting. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

There is no speed on this team.

 

Gabe just limps 7 yards and flattens out. 
 

And Allen also rushes because the OLine is weak. McGovern on the Int was turned allowing pressure. 

[78thealltimegreat]

9 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I get that but you have to be somewhat concerned about all of his turnovers. It's more than a one off. 

 

Also, Allen is 0-5 in OT games as a Bill QB. I'm not sure exactly what that means. Elite franchise QBs have to be clutch and win OT games. This far, it appears Allen hasn't got it done. 

 

Is he really that clutch when the game is on the line? I always thought he was. 

 

 

You do know 13 seconds is part of this right? 

[Ga boy]

9 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

If I were to think about where Allen needs to improve it would be: staying calm. You can literally see when he gets flustered and starts making too many mental mistakes.  He needs to find his zen.  I also think he needs to go back to knowing its ok to take off with the football and run the damn thing.  Just get down or out of bounds instead of fighting for 1 or 2 extra yards AFTER he already got the first down.  Obviously he needs to sometimes take what's given.  I think people sometimes over exaggerate that, but it's true none the less. Sometimes ya just gotta take it.

 

He really doesn't have that many games like the Jets game. That D is fast, disciplined, and vicious.  They seem to know how to push his buttons.  He needs to figure that out.  Once he does though....

In terms of QB style, is JA17 able to do like Aaron R by dropping back in pocket then forward as the rush gets pushed by him?  I know he would have to be committed to staying in the pocket.  It seems that stepping up would give him a second to see the routes.  Do we have the OL to make this work? It might be easier for the lineman to direct the flow of traffic, rather than trying to overpower the DL. 

[Jerome007]

Great analysis by Warner. Now contrast that with the video of the Dolphins O that has been posted in another thread. But let's recall these are selected plays. Was it like that all night long? On that 3rd INT, it's easy to say Josh should have thrown the ball away but sometimes you throw it as the play develops. On that 3rd INT he throws it "late" just because Davis bails too quick and the DB making he INT wasn't baited to go  deep and could easily cut back. 

 

It's only the first game of the year but still, McD has been there for years, Josh too, Dorsey is in his second year... and these seem very basic mistakes. 

 

 

Edited September 16, 2023 by Jerome007

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, Ga boy said:

In terms of QB style, is JA17 able to do like Aaron R by dropping back in pocket then forward as the rush gets pushed by him?  I know he would have to be committed to staying in the pocket.  It seems that stepping up would give him a second to see the routes.  Do we have the OL to make this work? It might be easier for the lineman to direct the flow of traffic, rather than trying to overpower the DL. 

 

We have seen Josh have good pocket movement before. I think he wasn't prepared for the speed of the game and especially the speed of the Jets and that years of having a terrible oline has made him not trust it.  I thought overall the line did a decent job against the Jets though.

[Rockinon]

Everyone saw the poor passing games from last year as defenses began taking away the deep routes. They found a way to combat against what was once Allen's bread and butter plays. This game is just an example of a great defense getting even better against Allen. Allen is going to figure it out. The WRs will figure it out. Dorsey will figure it out. I see people talking about the high/low route concepts, something that the Bills have been running every year since Allen became a Bill. And believe me, the Jets have been paying attention too.  The Bills aren't the only ones watching film, studying tendencies.

 

Me personally, playing the blame game isn't productive. Doing just what Allen stated in his press conference is. Learn from the game and correct the mistakes. The game of football evolves because it is as much of a chess game as a physical skill game. When the opponent changes strategy you adjust your own to compensate. This is the 1st game of the season. The Jets played a hell of a defense. Allen, the WRs and Dorsey now have film to get the job done and I have confidence they will do just that. It is not time to panic. Give me a couple more performances like this last game and I will start to worry.  The overall theme of this tread seems a little over the top with the criticism.  But hey, I'm just sitting in my armchair making observations. What do I know.

[Punching Bag]

7 hours ago, Ga boy said:

 Do we have the OL to make this work? It might be easier for the lineman to direct the flow of traffic, rather than trying to overpower the DL. 

 

That was how the scheme was supported to work last year. 

There was a video and article on it in which linemen were to funnel the defense giving Josh more time.

[BillsUberAlles]

On 9/15/2023 at 5:28 PM, VaMilBill said:

Our WR corps is mediocre outside of Diggs. I would very much be in favor of trading up to get Marvin Harrison jr next draft

 

Seriously? Dude is likely a top 5 pick. Exactly how many first round picks do you think the Bills are giving up to get up that high?

Edited September 17, 2023 by BillsUberAlles

[Low Positive]

3 hours ago, Rockinon said:

Everyone saw the poor passing games from last year as defenses began taking away the deep routes. They found a way to combat against what was once Allen's bread and butter plays. This game is just an example of a great defense getting even better against Allen. Allen is going to figure it out. The WRs will figure it out. Dorsey will figure it out. I see people talking about the high/low route concepts, something that the Bills have been running every year since Allen became a Bill. And believe me, the Jets have been paying attention too.  The Bills aren't the only ones watching film, studying tendencies.

 

Me personally, playing the blame game isn't productive. Doing just what Allen stated in his press conference is. Learn from the game and correct the mistakes. The game of football evolves because it is as much of a chess game as a physical skill game. When the opponent changes strategy you adjust your own to compensate. This is the 1st game of the season. The Jets played a hell of a defense. Allen, the WRs and Dorsey now have film to get the job done and I have confidence they will do just that. It is not time to panic. Give me a couple more performances like this last game and I will start to worry.  The overall theme of this tread seems a little over the top with the criticism.  But hey, I'm just sitting in my armchair making observations. What do I know.

Get out of here with your level-headed takes. We are mad as hell and we’re not gonna take it anymore /s

[Billever76]

On 9/15/2023 at 5:22 PM, 78thealltimegreat said:

I don’t think Dorsey knows what to do Josh played a very good first half… had a rough second half…recovered enough to get them in field goal range to tie it. 

In OT Knox dropped a pass, called a draw on 2nd and 15, and then Josh threw on incompletion to Diggs. Then a Sam Martin line drive special.

 

I agree with Kurt’s analysis these receivers don’t really make contested catches or fight for balls. 
 

Now Dorsey has admitted he didn’t want Josh running and limited his runs. 

Limiting Allen's runs are fine until it comes time to let that boy go....I feel it's being drilled into him to be a pocket passer and that simply is not Josh Allen....these coaches are trying to make josh into what they want instead of Letting Allen be allen

[4merper4mer]

On 9/15/2023 at 5:22 PM, 78thealltimegreat said:

I don’t think Dorsey knows what to do Josh played a very good first half… had a rough second half…recovered enough to get them in field goal range to tie it. 

In OT Knox dropped a pass, called a draw on 2nd and 15, and then Josh threw on incompletion to Diggs. Then a Sam Martin line drive special.

 

I agree with Kurt’s analysis these receivers don’t really make contested catches or fight for balls. 
 

Now Dorsey has admitted he didn’t want Josh running and limited his runs. 

Lol Knox pass was a drop?  Shirley.

[Scott7975]

29 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Lol Knox pass was a drop?  Shirley.

 

It went through his hands. The pass wasn't perfect but those types of passes are caught all the time. It wouldn't have been some amazing circus catch.  Yeah, it was a drop.

[4merper4mer]

9 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

It went through his hands. The pass wasn't perfect but those types of passes are caught all the time. It wouldn't have been some amazing circus catch.  Yeah, it was a drop.

If it was a golf shot it would have been called a worm burner.

[78thealltimegreat]

41 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Lol Knox pass was a drop?  Shirley.

Uh yes it was 

[LABILLBACKER]

It was a shallow and lazy route by Davis.  He needed to drive the safety deeper and never did. And frankly who knows what Dorsey's route tree is?

[Since1981]

It’s interesting that Josh off schedule scrambles are beneficial to poor Coach and poor WR routes. Covers up other failure points. I think daboll used this designed qb rollouts to exploit defense. Ds started to lock down the edges but that just opens the center. 

[WideNine]

23 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I get that but you have to be somewhat concerned about all of his turnovers. It's more than a one off. 

 

Also, Allen is 0-5 in OT games as a Bill QB. I'm not sure exactly what that means. Elite franchise QBs have to be clutch and win OT games. This far, it appears Allen hasn't got it done. 

 

Is he really that clutch when the game is on the line? I always thought he was. 

 

 

Like most things in life it is never black and white.

 

Allen has had sketchy pass pro from his line long enough that the clock in his head is off and the happy feet and pocket management is off.

 

Allen needs to get the ball out faster, more under center play action on schedule throws, not dismissing open options beneath the sticks, and taking off when it makes sense to do so, but get out of bounds or slide...

 

Most fans still believe we need Allen behind center playing the way we know he can. We don't want to see him lowering his shoulder and taking vicious shots for a meaningless 2 yards.

 

His receivers and coaches could do a better job cleaning up the sloppy route execution.

 

Not just poorly run routes, but we had two veteran receivers who ended up running one play where their routes ended up right on top of each other.

 

That was a WTF coaching moment for sure as no way the play was drawn up that way. So better execution and attention to detail in practices.

 

When playing those coverage shells it is all about the details. If you are going to take shots near or past the sticks, the timing and routes need to be crisp because you are hitting windows that open and close quickly.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

If it was a golf shot it would have been called a worm burner.

 

This is football and I call it a drop

[Desert Bills Fan]

And having a defensive guru as HC, those details: on how to beat a zone - should be drilled into those receivers on this team!

[78thealltimegreat]

25 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

This is football and I call it a drop

This man makes 45 million dollars most NFL TEs would say yeh you should have had that one. 

[4merper4mer]

9 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

This man makes 45 million dollars most NFL TEs would say yeh you should have had that one. 

How much does the guy that threw that make?

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

How much does the guy that threw that make?

How much do you make for your nfl analysis?

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

How much does the guy that threw that make?

 

How much does Mahomes get paid? There was noone even around Kelce and it was so far thrown behind him he had to abruptly slide and reach behind the direction he was running.  Still caught the ball.  These throws and catches happen all the time. Knox dropped the ball period.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 9/15/2023 at 4:47 PM, Dr Krentist said:

 

Maybe he's biased because he was a QB but he, not necessarily blames the WRs, but thinks they could have done more to help JA. Goes to show its the little things in every position that can alter or make a play.

 

Can Kurt be our OC .

 

I felt like the whole game we didn't try to push down the field, except for when Josh threw a few wing and a prayers.