Kurt Warner analysis of JA

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Does Hurts need Brown and Smith or Burrow need Chase and Higgins? Or San Fran need Samuel, Kittle, and Mcaffery?

Mahomes only needed Kelce and one leg. 

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

Admittedly, I don’t know that much about NFL Xs and Os, but these seem like really lousy route concepts.  Dorsey should be embarrassed.

It all depends what you mean… 

 

running a high/low forcing 1 guy to cover two that are spread is a great test.

 

running a high/low allowing 1 guy to cover two guys clustered is a debacle 

[Billl]

14 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

God could you imagine if David had snapped that corner back to the post on a double move? The way the safety jumped that, he’d still be running.

Or what if Josh had thrown the ball to Diggs who was wide open right in front of Josh?  

[Dr.Sack]

3 minutes ago, Billl said:

This is embarrassing.  Josh was awful.  He needs to play better.

He was and there are dudes running open on underneath routes, but to Warner’s point the routes aren’t being run or taught correctly. Correct me if I’m wrong but shouldn’t Allen if he was more like Brady be bitching for them to be run to perfection?

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:

Mahomes only needed Kelce and one leg. 

 

and Andy Reid, Juju, Pachecho.  He didn't have all world talent like when he had Kelce AND Hill, but not all his guys were scrubs either.  Those guys are all running an Andy Reid offense and they at least know how to run a route.  They have a running game when they have to and speed to get YAC.

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

Or what if Josh had thrown the ball to Diggs who was wide open right in front of Josh?  

 

Or what if Josh did what the play dictated he do based on defense.  Oh wait, he did.  Just that the receiver ran a crap route and Josh rushed the throw.

[Billl]

3 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

He was and there are dudes running open on underneath routes, but to Warner’s point the routes aren’t being run or taught correctly. Correct me if I’m wrong but shouldn’t Allen if he was more like Brady be bitching for them to be run to perfection?

No.  Josh made a terrible decision, and no amount of better route running by Gabe was going to change the fact that Diggs was completely unguarded right in front of Josh’s face.  Brady could demand excellence from his receivers because Brady made the right read 99% of the time.  That’s not Josh.

Edited September 16, 2023 by Billl

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

When there's open receivers, regardless of the reason, and Allen isn't under that much pressure that he doesn't have time to read/see them, and doesn't hit them and instead goes into double or triple coverage for an incompletion or INT, it's not the receivers.  

 

Send four out, hopefully one or two are open.  THAT'S the job, process which one quickly, pre-reading the D is key, and then hit that open WR.  

 

I don't know where the post is, but I specifically pointed out numerous times when that was exactly the case and Allen did not hit the open guy or even try.  And I included none where there would have been any chance of an INT whatsoever.  

 

 

It also gets old having everyone but McD get any of the blame for this.  

I think there are two issues in play.

 

1. Allen doesn't trust his oline and feels a need to bail out of the pocket early and play scramble football. 

 

2. I think Allen is having difficulty quickly reading defenses. 

[CincyBillsFan]

I expected Warner was going to eviscerate Allen. That he provides a very different perspective is interesting and in an odd way reassuring.  Improved route running can be more easily achieved then fixing Allen's potentially lost mojo.

 

 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

But the Bills are more than ok with continuing on with Spencer Brown at RT allowing pressure and sacks for a 3rd year now. 

Want til you see Max Crosby take him to the woodshed. Bills better have a plan to help out Brown. If not Crosby might have 5 sacks. 

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:

I think there are two issues in play.

 

1. Allen doesn't trust his oline and feels a need to bail out of the pocket early and play scramble football. 

 

2. I think Allen is having difficulty quickly reading defenses. 

 

1. I agree with.  He doesn't trust his oline completely

2. I don't agree with.  The play in question... Diggs motioned.  Josh identified presnap correctly zone coverage. The read is Sauce.  Sauce was committing to Kincaid. The throw is to Davis. That was also quickly identified, read correctly. The outcome sucked but that was the correct read.

[newcam2012]

31 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

I'm not a fan of Dorsey and I think the play calling was bad, but how many videos of open receivers do you need to see? They invested in slot and he doesn't use them. Josh overlooked sure things for big plays against a defense specifically designed to stop big plays. 

Maybe someone with more knowledge can explain why the Bills didn't use the slot WRs more. I thought that was the best way to attack the Jet D. I expected to see a lot of quick short slants and crossing patterns. 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

You're not understanding the concept of the play. Davis isn't double covered, he's supposed to split the zones of the CB and the safety. That's the whole point of the high/low post corner. In fact this play is exactly what everybody wants Allen to do - read the defense pre-snap, confirm the coverage post-snap, get the ball out right away based on the read. But none of that matters if the read is taken away by a lousy route concept and lousy execution.

 

I wasn't discussing a single play.  This isn't a "single play" issue.  

 

 

[Billl]

3 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Maybe someone with more knowledge can explain why the Bills didn't use the slot WRs more. I thought that was the best way to attack the Jet D. I expected to see a lot of quick short slants and crossing patterns. 

So did Dorsey.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

2 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Davis particularly runs soft routes, doesn’t fight for the ball and when plays break down he tends to be not the most qb friendly guy. 
 

I really thought in addition to the ankle there was maybe some core injury. He just moved like a cruise ship sometimes last year… but he’s still just not a crisp mover 

No one said that either though. Needing and wanting are different.

That’s not true at all. Some Allen’s best throws have been on broken plays to Davis. 

[newcam2012]

7 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

1. I agree with.  He doesn't trust his oline completely

2. I don't agree with.  The play in question... Diggs motioned.  Josh identified presnap correctly zone coverage. The read is Sauce.  Sauce was committing to Kincaid. The throw is to Davis. That was also quickly identified, read correctly. The outcome sucked but that was the correct read.

I agree Scott but I wasn't talking about this single play. I was talking in general terms. 

 

I'm a big Allen fan but I'm starting to question his vision a little bite. I don't think all the turnovers are from trying to play hero ball. I think he might be have no trouble processing certain zone coverages. Maybe I'm wrong here but I'm starting to get that impression. Another poster talked about how he is slower to process defenses than other elite QBs. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

But the Bills are more than ok with continuing on with Spencer Brown at RT allowing pressure and sacks for a 3rd year now. 

It’s their first game as a unit against the damn Jets. Give them a bit to gel.

[Wayne Arnold]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The issue is that Davis didn't necessarily cut too soon. Based on the other two examples Kurt Warner showed that is for some reason how Dorsey wants that concept run. It doesn't make any sense.

 

Allen is literally just following the concept of the play. Isn't that what everyone wants? If he messed anything up it's the ball placement but like Warner pointed out he is rushing the throw because of when Davis breaks.

 

Allen made a lot of mistakes in this game. This wasn't one of them.

 

 

You can tell by the way he throws the pass, it appears he's sort of surprised how quickly Davis broke and he didn't have a great stride throwing the ball and as a result he threw it short.

 

Maybe he's used to him running that route 10 yards and then this game they made an adjustment because they knew how much pressure the Jets front was going to cause so they wanted Allen to get the ball out quicker and therefore shorten certain routes.

[NoSaint]

Just now, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

That’s not true at all. Some Allen’s best throws have been on broken plays to Davis. 

That Allen’s tossed him a few amazing throws isn’t testament to him consistently moving where he should be and getting there on schedule for the qb needs when the play breaks down. 
 

he’s slower, lacking agility and doesn’t find the easiest zone for the qb in any consistent way. I’ve in fact watched him drift into really difficult windows frequently. Kind of like running the corner too short creating a harder through in this video, conceptually.

[78thealltimegreat]

25 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Mahomes only needed Kelce and one leg. 

Without Kelce he lost to the lions at home didn’t he 

[Franco_92]

49 minutes ago, Ramza86 said:

What im taking out of this video is that we are playing about half a second too fast.....and all of that stems from poor protection.

 

Causes everyone to break out earlier, Josh to make his decision earlier. Its just a mess this organization failed to address for Allen's entire career. 

 

 

Statistically, the line gave allen time and a lack of pressures relative to the rest of the NFL this weekend. 

 

It was also against what will probably the best, or second best, defense in the league. 

 

Burrow does just fine without a line. Every aspect of the team was better than Josh Allen on Monday. I don't expect it to happen again, but that's what happened

[78thealltimegreat]

20 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Want til you see Max Crosby take him to the woodshed. Bills better have a plan to help out Brown. If not Crosby might have 5 sacks. 

No Chandlier Jones on the other side just have Knox chip him 

[Sherlock Holmes]

3 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Does Hurts need Brown and Smith or Burrow need Chase and Higgins? Or San Fran need Samuel, Kittle, and Mcaffery?

You're right! McCaffrey would be the perfect addition!

[Rew]

24 minutes ago, Billl said:

No.  Josh made a terrible decision, and no amount of better route running by Gabe was going to change the fact that Diggs was completely unguarded right in front of Josh’s face.  Brady could demand excellence from his receivers because Brady made the right read 99% of the time.  That’s not Josh.

Except everyone who knows what they are talking about agree that the design and read on that play against cover 2 is the CB.  The throw to Diggs against that coverage is an easy completion for 0 yards.  Josh read the defense and CB correctly and put the throw where it needed to be.  The throw was on time with anticipation, but he probably didn't drive it the way he wanted to due to needing to clear the CB that was crowded by wrong route depth.  The safety began driving on the ball simultaneously with the throw bc Gabe telegraphed the route.  To throw on time the quarterback has to make the decision based on safety positioning early in the route and trust the receiver to do his job.

 

The only other view on this play is that the CB read wasn't clear enough and Allen should have taken the under or given up on the play.  But with route depth not creating separation that probably would have ended poorly as well.  On this play, Josh did almost exactly what we'd all hope for.  He had a bunch of good plays and a few terrible ones, but this one was not bad.

[Billl]

8 minutes ago, Rew said:

Except everyone who knows what they are talking about agree that the design and read on that play against cover 2 is the CB.  The throw to Diggs against that coverage is an easy completion for 0 yards.  Josh read the defense and CB correctly and put the throw where it needed to be.  The throw was on time with anticipation

 

[WideNine]

4 hours ago, Dr Krentist said:

 

Maybe he's biased because he was a QB but he, not necessarily blames the WRs, but thinks they could have done more to help JA. Goes to show its the little things in every position that can alter or make a play.

 

Not for some, but I love these breakdowns by Warner and he is absolutely right about how disciplined our receivers are running their routes, depth, being crisp in and out of their breaks and not rounding them.

 

Diggs is by far the best, Gabe should be better and some of my concern with them using him more for underneath concepts is his route running.

 

Kincaid is a rookie... gets a pass.

 

Will be interesting to watch how this WR core is developed and performs with Chad Hall out and Adam Henry in as our receivers coach.

 

 

 

 

[Dr.Sack]

36 minutes ago, Billl said:

No.  Josh made a terrible decision, and no amount of better route running by Gabe was going to change the fact that Diggs was completely unguarded right in front of Josh’s face.  Brady could demand excellence from his receivers because Brady made the right read 99% of the time.  That’s not Josh.

So it’s part coaching, part Josh being unassertive, and part WRs not executing. That’s bad all around. Not all on Josh but he must he must grow more as a leader.

[Xwnyer]

NET is DORSEY sucks as a play designer and play caller..   too many receivers in similar location allowing safeties to cover multiple guys at once

Edited September 16, 2023 by Xwnyer

[Rew]

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

 

You found a guy that writes news articles with an opinion.  Kincaid was not open on that play while coverage was active.  He only opens up after Allen starts his throwing motion and zones are vacated.  It would have been a contested catch.  Diggs is the completion over the middle that would probably have been caught and 50/50 he has enough for the first when the LB crashes on him.

 

Given the situation I could buy the argument to throw to Diggs and hope he bodies for the first, but Allen's decision against that defense was not the primary culprit of a bad result on that play.

[Livinginthepast]

3 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

In OT watch the route Diggs runs on the incomplete.  He made his cut and then stands there for a quick sec before moving - hence an incompletion by a few inches.

He was also held from behind by the DB on that incomplete. Just enough not to be obvious and draw a flag but enough to delay him getting there.  That pass incompletion was not completely on Josh.

[newcam2012]

29 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Without Kelce he lost to the lions at home didn’t he 

"He who laughs last laughs the loudest."

[Scott7975]

37 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I agree Scott but I wasn't talking about this single play. I was talking in general terms. 

 

I'm a big Allen fan but I'm starting to question his vision a little bite. I don't think all the turnovers are from trying to play hero ball. I think he might be have no trouble processing certain zone coverages. Maybe I'm wrong here but I'm starting to get that impression. Another poster talked about how he is slower to process defenses than other elite QBs. 

 

In general terms, Allen cost us this game. He has cost us a few but not often.  I won't be worried unless this becomes a season long trend.

[Buddy Hix]

Warner makes some good observations, sloppy routes for sure. But Allen’s problem imo is happy feet. Years of bad blocking have led to him feeling rushed, can’t/won’t get through his reads. 

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, Dr Krentist said:

 

Maybe he's biased because he was a QB but he, not necessarily blames the WRs, but thinks they could have done more to help JA. Goes to show its the little things in every position that can alter or make a play.

 

4 hours ago, Fleezoid said:

In my opinion, this is an indictment on Dorsey. If he didn't design it this way, he's certainly allowed the players to practice it this way. 

 

Kurt knows his stuff and has valid points that the confliction for the defender wasn't as conflicted as it could have been.

BUT, before we start the blame game on the WR and Dorsey .....maybe we should consider, "why might the receivers be coached to run shorter routes?"

 

Shorter routes take less time.  Less time means the blocking doesn't need to hold up as long.  Blocking doesn't need to hold up as long, means a better chance that an average OL playing a tip-top DL can pull it off.  If they are concerned with that, though, the guy with the short flat route could shallow it.  In Warner's 2nd example, that's what Cook does.

 

I think we should give props to @HappyDays as one way to interpret Warner's analysis is that Davis made no attempt to "sell" a deep route, and the effect of the deeper route before the break would be to force the defender to backpedal. 

 

Another point, again, before blaming the WR and Dorsey, is that I believe, basically from just after the snap, that Josh Allen 100%  intends to throw to Davis.  There's no looking towards Diggs or Kincaid.  It looks to me as though he's locked in on Davis all the way, so that's what the defenders do.

Edited September 16, 2023 by Beck Water

[78thealltimegreat]

I still say the third int which was on a 3rd and a little over 1 was because Dorsey has no confidence his line can get a 1 yard push even with a 235lb rb in Murray and a 240lb QB in Allen. 

[QLBillsFan]

3 hours ago, juno999 said:

Curious to know if Kincaid was running the right depth per the Bills.  Bad route running or bad route design?  Maybe a rookie playing his first game making rookie mistakes.

Well he was wide open for the first down in the 3rd and 2. That JA forced into double coverage where many people are blaming Davis? Yeah so Josh needs to take what’s given. 

[newcam2012]

Just now, Scott7975 said:

 

In general terms, Allen cost us this game. He has cost us a few but not often.  I won't be worried unless this becomes a season long trend.

I get that but you have to be somewhat concerned about all of his turnovers. It's more than a one off. 

 

Also, Allen is 0-5 in OT games as a Bill QB. I'm not sure exactly what that means. Elite franchise QBs have to be clutch and win OT games. This far, it appears Allen hasn't got it done. 

 

Is he really that clutch when the game is on the line? I always thought he was. 

 

 

[Beck Water]

8 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said:

Warner makes some good observations, sloppy routes for sure. But Allen’s problem imo is happy feet. Years of bad blocking have led to him feeling rushed, can’t/won’t get through his reads. 

 

That's kind of a "didn't watch the piece" take here, since Allen was calm and steady in the pocket on all 3 of the examples Warner gave.

[DCofNC]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

Gonna have to trade 3-4 first rd picks and more to get up there this season

Currently tied for the first pick overall, ya never know.

[Buddy Hix]

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

That's kind of a "didn't watch the piece" take here, since Allen was calm and steady in the pocket on all 3 of the examples Warner gave.

I meant that even when he’s got time and not bailing on the pocket, he’s still failing to go through his reads. I worded it poorly.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The point is if Tua needs those two to be good he is the wrong guy. We won't find out until the contract issue forces the point. 

So Burrow is the wrong guy too?  Got it 😂