CB Separation analysis - Sauce is ridiculous

[Big Blitz]

Of course - he’s also been given um….a good amount of leeway.

 

 

[Prospector]

Cool

[Brand J]

I have a feeling he won’t replicate the success he had this past year and the NY media will wonder if he’s in a sophomore slump. He got away with a lot of holding and grabbing, he won’t this year.

[MJS]

Hard to separate when he is holding on to you.

[strive_for_five_guy]

So we love to play zone coverage, and Elam and Dane give up some of the most separation in zone coverage?  Is that on them, or by design that they play off more than other CBs in zone coverage?

[BillsShredder83]

Seeing the complaining about the holding is irritating to me.  You play the game the refs allow and push the limits.

How many playoff games have we seen KC hold the livin isht out of us...... no flags, it was effective, we lost.........

 

We need to replicate it. Experiment, figure out the sweet spot for the crew refing the game. Yes, literally study tape on on what each crew is calling or not

 

^^ this is a two sided coin. teach our CBs how to play playoff football.  teach our WR's how to overcome it. Swipe them freaking hands off you with a violent forearm.

Not only get used to being physical, seek it out, make it your advantage. Make other teams dread playing you, we're gunna bang you up, and you can cry to the refs while youre down 2 scores

[GunnerBill]

The comparison table for WRs separating against Man and Zone has Isaiah McKenzie top 5 in separation against man coverage. 

[PrimeTime101]

This means nothing. Jets play more man, we play zone. I can not figure out for the life of me how you can compare the 2 concerning separation. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

5 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

I have a feeling he won’t replicate the success he had this past year and the NY media will wonder if he’s in a sophomore slump. He got away with a lot of holding and grabbing, he won’t this year.

Why not? It's not like there weren't complaints last year and nothing changed. What makes the red suddenly find their flags this year?

 

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The comparison table for WRs separating against Man and Zone has Isaiah McKenzie top 5 in separation against man coverage. 

I buy it. Don't need tight coverage on a guy that won't make a play on the ball. 

 

[PBF81]

5 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

I have a feeling he won’t replicate the success he had this past year and the NY media will wonder if he’s in a sophomore slump. He got away with a lot of holding and grabbing, he won’t this year.

 

Hopefully, and you'd think, but the league seems to bend the rules for marquee players too.  

 

 

[Motorin']

Taron Johnson far and away the best Bills player on that list. Only 4 CB's ahead of him in zone separation. And 7 CB's ahead of him in man separation. 

 

I'm kind of hoping the guy doesn't have to play LB this year too.

 

I can't imagine going up again TE's, FB's and pulling lineman in the box on run plays is doing a whole lot for his longevity. 

 

 

Edited June 28, 2023 by Motorin'

[Billl]

This goes a long way towards answering my question about why Elam didn’t get more playing time.  

[DaggersEOD]

5 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Seeing the complaining about the holding is irritating to me.  You play the game the refs allow and push the limits.

How many playoff games have we seen KC hold the livin isht out of us...... no flags, it was effective, we lost.........

 

We need to replicate it. Experiment, figure out the sweet spot for the crew refing the game. Yes, literally study tape on on what each crew is calling or not

 

^^ this is a two sided coin. teach our CBs how to play playoff football.  teach our WR's how to overcome it. Swipe them freaking hands off you with a violent forearm.

Not only get used to being physical, seek it out, make it your advantage. Make other teams dread playing you, we're gunna bang you up, and you can cry to the refs while youre down 2 scores

It’s one of my beefs with the Bills. We’re built to win the Reg season, but come playoff time, we struggle. It’s all over our roster. 
 

Our CBs are too small and get manhandled in the playoffs. 
 

Our WRs are small and require agility to get open. Come playoffs, the opposing CBs are much more physical/grabby, and we get thrown off our game. 
 

Our D-Line is the same way. Small agile guys who can win in the Reg season but come playoffs, get held a ton and can’t break through. 
 

We need playoff type players that can power through the jam at the LOS or push through holds on the line. Dominant physical players that can impose their will. 
 

Josh is dominant like that, but not many other Bills players are. Fingers crossed for Kincaid. 
 

If we’re relying on the Refs to call a game like they do in the Reg season, we may see more games like the last one against the Bengals. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

15 minutes ago, DaggersEOD said:

It’s one of my beefs with the Bills. We’re built to win the Reg season, but come playoff time, we struggle. It’s all over our roster. 
 

Our CBs are too small and get manhandled in the playoffs. 
 

Our WRs are small and require agility to get open. Come playoffs, the opposing CBs are much more physical/grabby, and we get thrown off our game. 
 

Our D-Line is the same way. Small agile guys who can win in the Reg season but come playoffs, get held a ton and can’t break through. 
 

We need playoff type players that can power through the jam at the LOS or push through holds on the line. Dominant physical players that can impose their will. 
 

Josh is dominant like that, but not many other Bills players are. Fingers crossed for Kincaid. 
 

If we’re relying on the Refs to call a game like they do in the Reg season, we may see more games like the last one against the Bengals. 

Our DL is no longer small. Our CBs weren’t manhandled, they just haven’t been good vs KC and Cincy for different reasons. They need to let Elam play because we need his man abilities in the playoffs. Tre White hopefully can bounce back. White, Elam, Johnson is not small or soft at CB.

 

Our DL is much better built for the postseason now. It has been our downfall vs KC and Cincy. 
 

Edited June 28, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Santana]

He's good but the amount of holding he got away with last year was absolutely ridiculous.

[billsbackto81]

Sauce is the real deal. When you play at a aggressive level consistently you will get the benefit of the doubt on questionable plays. Revis, Gilmore and Ramsey come to mind. Players need to match the intensity, not cry about it.

 

BTW: Tre White does his fair share of Holding as well. Surprisingly there are no complaints about him.

Edited June 28, 2023 by billsbackto81

[Mikie2times]

Wanted sauce, felt it was worth unloading picks to get him. Knew it would never happen. Felt the same way about Kyle Pitts. A few of these guys are as close to can't miss as it gets. Usually it's a result of physical gifts and natural playing ability. It's one thing to just be a combine hero, but when you're a combine hero and the tape shows it translating on the field as it did for Pitts and Sauce, I think it starts to become worth it to consider taking quality over quantity especially when you have a clear window like we do. 

[Shaw66]

37 minutes ago, DaggersEOD said:

It’s one of my beefs with the Bills. We’re built to win the Reg season, but come playoff time, we struggle. It’s all over our roster. 
 

Our CBs are too small and get manhandled in the playoffs. 
 

Our WRs are small and require agility to get open. Come playoffs, the opposing CBs are much more physical/grabby, and we get thrown off our game. 
 

Our D-Line is the same way. Small agile guys who can win in the Reg season but come playoffs, get held a ton and can’t break through. 
 

We need playoff type players that can power through the jam at the LOS or push through holds on the line. Dominant physical players that can impose their will. 
 

Josh is dominant like that, but not many other Bills players are. Fingers crossed for Kincaid. 
 

If we’re relying on the Refs to call a game like they do in the Reg season, we may see more games like the last one against the Bengals. 

I think this analysis is correct.  

 

The data about Jackson and Elam point out the bend-don't-break nature of McDermott's defense.  It's always frustrating to see how easily the Bills give up yardage, but at the end of the season the frustration has to be tempered by the fact that, on average over time, McD's defense stops teams better than others. 

 

The problem is that in the playoffs, you're not playing the averages - you're playing one game, and you have to stop people.  

 

Now, maybe the answer to that is to get White back healthy.  When White's back in form, he can take his man man-to-man, especially if the offense lines up their #2 guy against him.   When that happens, the Bills can double the other side, and with that defense the Bills get more stops, which is what's needed in the playoffs.  

 

Also, we just have to wait and see about Elam.  He had good cover skills coming out of college, and we didn't see him stand out much in that area.   Frankly, I think in college he didn't need much more than good cover skills, and he probably never learned much of anything about more sophisticated defensive backfield schemes, which the Bills run a lot of.   He struggled with the defense most of last season.  I'm hopeful that this season he'll be more comfortable in the defense, which will also make him more comfortable when he's in man.  And I'm not counting Benford out, either.  

 

Bottom line, though, is that it's tough to win in the playoffs when your defensive scheme is bend-don't-break and your corners are mediocre, as this chart shows about Elam and Jackson.  

 

White-Elam-Johnson-Poyer-Hyde are the guys I want on the field in the playoffs.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Am I the only person upset when someone says Bills can’t do something in the playoffs?

 

If you eliminate the Chiefs the Bills probably make 2 Super Bowls by now. Can we just say the Chiefs? I’m fine saying Chiefs and Bengals but no one else was beating the Bills in the playoffs the last 3 years.

[LABILLBACKER]

17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think this analysis is correct.  

 

The data about Jackson and Elam point out the bend-don't-break nature of McDermott's defense.  It's always frustrating to see how easily the Bills give up yardage, but at the end of the season the frustration has to be tempered by the fact that, on average over time, McD's defense stops teams better than others. 

 

The problem is that in the playoffs, you're not playing the averages - you're playing one game, and you have to stop people.  

 

Now, maybe the answer to that is to get White back healthy.  When White's back in form, he can take his man man-to-man, especially if the offense lines up their #2 guy against him.   When that happens, the Bills can double the other side, and with that defense the Bills get more stops, which is what's needed in the playoffs.  

 

Also, we just have to wait and see about Elam.  He had good cover skills coming out of college, and we didn't see him stand out much in that area.   Frankly, I think in college he didn't need much more than good cover skills, and he probably never learned much of anything about more sophisticated defensive backfield schemes, which the Bills run a lot of.   He struggled with the defense most of last season.  I'm hopeful that this season he'll be more comfortable in the defense, which will also make him more comfortable when he's in man.  And I'm not counting Benford out, either.  

 

Bottom line, though, is that it's tough to win in the playoffs when your defensive scheme is bend-don't-break and your corners are mediocre, as this chart shows about Elam and Jackson.  

 

White-Elam-Johnson-Poyer-Hyde are the guys I want on the field in the playoffs.  

We've had "bend don't break" defenses since the beginning of time. They don't even remotely work in the playoffs against the elite teams.  Coaches from Walt Corey to Sean McDermott just don't get it.

[Matt_In_NH]

Is 0-0 ideal, so Steph Gilmore?

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We've had "bend don't break" defenses since the beginning of time. They don't even remotely work in the playoffs against the elite teams.  Coaches from Walt Corey to Sean McDermott just don't get it.

I don't think there is anything that McDermott doesn't get.  McDermott sees what wins in the playoffs.  Last season he didn't have the personnel to play any other way.   As I said, I think if he has his starters in the playoffs next season, you'll see a different style of defense.  

[QB Bills]

1 hour ago, DaggersEOD said:

It’s one of my beefs with the Bills. We’re built to win the Reg season, but come playoff time, we struggle. It’s all over our roster. 
 

Our CBs are too small and get manhandled in the playoffs. 
 

Our WRs are small and require agility to get open. Come playoffs, the opposing CBs are much more physical/grabby, and we get thrown off our game. 
 

Our D-Line is the same way. Small agile guys who can win in the Reg season but come playoffs, get held a ton and can’t break through. 
 

We need playoff type players that can power through the jam at the LOS or push through holds on the line. Dominant physical players that can impose their will. 
 

Josh is dominant like that, but not many other Bills players are. Fingers crossed for Kincaid. 
 

If we’re relying on the Refs to call a game like they do in the Reg season, we may see more games like the last one against the Bengals. 

As a die-hard Bills and Leafs fan, this is a point that hits way too close to home.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

26 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We've had "bend don't break" defenses since the beginning of time. They don't even remotely work in the playoffs against the elite teams.  Coaches from Walt Corey to Sean McDermott just don't get it.

Chiefs put up like 35 a game in the playoffs when we played them. The Bengals whipped the Bills but that wasn’t a full strength defense mentally or physically.

 

The defense doesn’t bend too much when operating as it should. It isn’t an in your face defense, which I like better, but its a well coached defense that makes few mistakes.

Edited June 28, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

34 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We've had "bend don't break" defenses since the beginning of time. They don't even remotely work in the playoffs against the elite teams.  Coaches from Walt Corey to Sean McDermott just don't get it.

Maybe my definition of "bend don't break" is off, but wouldn't that style of defense give up a lot of yards per game?  Only 5 teams gave up fewer yards per game than the Bills last season. (Only 1 team gave up fewer points per game).  Not bad for a coach that "just doesn't get it".  The defense last season did not perform well in the playoffs, but were also missing several very important pieces. 

[ngbills]

15 minutes ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

Maybe my definition of "bend don't break" is off, but wouldn't that style of defense give up a lot of yards per game?  Only 5 teams gave up fewer yards per game than the Bills last season. (Only 1 team gave up fewer points per game).  Not bad for a coach that "just doesn't get it".  The defense last season did not perform well in the playoffs, but were also missing several very important pieces. 

Not if you generate turnovers, the offense makes mistakes - drops etc, or your offense also has long drives. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

23 minutes ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

Maybe my definition of "bend don't break" is off, but wouldn't that style of defense give up a lot of yards per game?  Only 5 teams gave up fewer yards per game than the Bills last season. (Only 1 team gave up fewer points per game).  Not bad for a coach that "just doesn't get it".  The defense last season did not perform well in the playoffs, but were also missing several very important pieces. 

He’s saying the defense hasn’t done anything vs Mahomes or Burrow in the playoffs.

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’s saying the defense hasn’t done anything vs Mahomes or Burrow in the playoffs.

No, he actually said "We've had "bend don't break" defenses since the beginning of time".   "Since the beginning of time" would include the 2022 regular season as far as I know.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

No, he actually said "We've had "bend don't break" defenses since the beginning of time".   "Since the beginning of time" would include the 2022 regular season as far as I know.

Yeah he does say that. I Don’t get it. Bills have to be ranked top 5 in yards and points since 2017 on defense.

[34-78-83]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The comparison table for WRs separating against Man and Zone has Isaiah McKenzie top 5 in separation against man coverage. 

That's because its true. It's literally what they told us he was used for against the more predominantly Man cover teams like the Pats were. Crossers vs. Man constantly. So while Lil dirty was a limited player, separating vs man was his thing that keeps him on NFL rosters.

[GunnerBill]

 

7 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

That's because its true. It's literally what they told us he was used for against the more predominantly Man cover teams like the Pats were. Crossers vs. Man constantly. So while Lil dirty was a limited player, separating vs man was his thing that keeps him on NFL rosters.

 

I agree. But I spent a lot of last season hearing he is never open. 

[JerseyBills]

2 hours ago, Motorin' said:

Taron Johnson far and away the best Bills player on that list. Only 4 CB's ahead of him in zone separation. And 7 CB's ahead of him in man separation. 

 

I'm kind of hoping the guy doesn't have to play LB this year too.

 

I can't imagine going up again TE's, FB's and pulling lineman in the box on run plays is doing a whole lot for his longevity. 

 

 

Taron has been one of the best slot CBS in the game for a cpl years now. He's damn good against the run too. 

 

Why would he play LB? Makes no sense to me

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

I agree. But I spent a lot of last season hearing he is never open. 

McKenzie had decent open analytic stats but his catch stats and yac stats were terrible. I think he’s actually a better WR than Gabe Davis though and they would’ve been better off going to McKenzie more than Davis.

[2003Contenders]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Chiefs put up like 35 a game in the playoffs when we played them. The Bengals whipped the Bills but that wasn’t a full strength defense mentally or physically.

 

The defense doesn’t bend too much when operating as it should. It isn’t an in your face defense, which I like better, but its a well coached defense that makes few mistakes.

 

Yes.

 

Also with all the injuries and inexperience in the defensive backfield, McD and Frazier were playing even softer than they normally would, hoping to cover for those inadequacies. This was most exposed in both games against the Bengals in which Burrow got the ball out of his hand so quickly.

[Motorin']

1 minute ago, JerseyBills said:

Taron has been one of the best slot CBS in the game for a cpl years now. He's damn good against the run too. 

 

Why would he play LB? Makes no sense to me

 

Cause the Bills line him up at OLB against 2 WR formations? 

 

Yeah, he's very good against the run for a CB. 

 

Would love to not see him get blown up against the likes of Hayden Hurst and Alex Ingold all season long. 

[FLFan]

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Hopefully, and you'd think, but the league seems to bend the rules for marquee players too.  

 

 

Yes, they do, and Jets are the new darlings so I expect every break to go to Sauce again.

[RoyBatty is alive]

8 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Seeing the complaining about the holding is irritating to me.  You play the game the refs allow and push the limits.

How many playoff games have we seen KC hold the livin isht out of us...... no flags, it was effective, we lost.........

 

We need to replicate it. Experiment, figure out the sweet spot for the crew refing the game. Yes, literally study tape on on what each crew is calling or not

 

^^ this is a two sided coin. teach our CBs how to play playoff football.  teach our WR's how to overcome it. Swipe them freaking hands off you with a violent forearm.

Not only get used to being physical, seek it out, make it your advantage. Make other teams dread playing you, we're gunna bang you up, and you can cry to the refs while youre down 2 scores

The concept of aggressive defensive play on receivers in the playoffs  has plagued the Bills for decades really.  Multiple coaches don't understand or cant gear up defenders in playoff football which is almost always called differently than regular season, especially the Super Bowl.

 

How did the Bills lose the Super Bowl versus the Redskins, it was rampant pass interference that was never called.  It was so aggressive Andre Reed finally lost it and REED got a penalty  for his outburst. When he got that penalty game was, imo, effectively over.

[Beck Water]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The comparison table for WRs separating against Man and Zone has Isaiah McKenzie top 5 in separation against man coverage. 

 

I don't understand the laughy face response. 

 

Josh Allen gave him props that he is really good at separating vs. man coverage.

He is.  It's how he killed the Patriots and the Dolphins. 

 

The problem is, the Bills don't see a lot of man coverage.

 

 

[Matt_In_NH]

6 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

This means nothing. Jets play more man, we play zone. I can not figure out for the life of me how you can compare the 2 concerning separation. 

Pretty sure they look at each play and put it in the zone bucket or man bucket.  They said 200 snaps but not how many was of each so there could be insufficient data for man or zone.

[Dopey]

1 hour ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

No, he actually said "We've had "bend don't break" defenses since the beginning of time".   "Since the beginning of time" would include the 2022 regular season as far as I know.

I don’t believe Phillips, Schwartz or Petrine had “bend but don’t break “ defenses.