Drafting a TE Day 1 & 2

[BillsShredder83]

Ive seen enough people lobbying for a TE early in the draft, why?  We've shown it to be a low priority position for 20 years.  For 10 of it, the position has been very overdrafted by the league as a whole.  Its a hard position to project how a player will handle the jump, even ones taken very early.  Theyre molasses slow to develop. A 1k yard TE is an absolute unicorn sighting of an appearance.  Theres a bunch of 1k WRs every year.  First downs? Emphasize the slot.  Elite TE's in the redzone are very special, no denying that.  However, when you consider the miss rate on TEs, it seems like an astronomical price to pay for a position for that leads to less yards, higher bust rates, lower benefits of the rookie contracts with the steep learning curve of years 1 & 2.

 

Im open to being wrong (I expect to get blasted here and Im open to  it), I understand the versatility provided leads to less tipping off your plays by personnel.  If I want yards & TDs, 1st downs, I want a WR. If i want blocking gimme an OL or a lower round blocking TE.  The TD's are less clear cut in making up, but if you cant make them up by scheming them to your WRs and passing to your backs, are you going to be able to scheme them open for a TE?

 

Im not saying Id never draft a TE, but Id be more than OK never drafting one rounds 1-3, and paying a premium in free agency.  Let someone else draft them high, take on the bust risk and get them up to speed. I'll have my FA dollars ready if it's an absolute must have

[dje85]

You basically gave the answer yourself the reason is versatility mainly. Also, it adds an extra blocker on pass and run plays. They also can create mismatches with linebackers if athletic enough and not just a plodder blocking te. Though to be honest I don't think you need to worry about the Bills taking one before the third round honestly outside of being completely sold on Knox. Beane seems to have an obsession with taking wrs later in the draft.  I feel like TES fall under that for them as well. I am thoroughly convinced our first two or three picks will be defense. Especially since he has essentially stated already he feels we have our wr2 in Gabe Davis.

Edited March 18, 2023 by dje85

[Donuts and Doritos]

Folks want the Gronk - Hernandez 1 - 2 punch the Pats had years ago. & With a reportedly weak WR class combined w/ a reportedly strong TE class, there's some that feel this is the best path forward.

[CapeBreton]

I’d be OK with Sam Laporta in round 2, but like you said the Bills have never prioritized TE so not expecting they draft one til late, if at all. It’s a great TE class so I hope they upgrade over Quinten Morris at TE2.

[mrags]

28 minutes ago, CapeBreton said:

I’d be OK with Sam Laporta in round 2, but like you said the Bills have never prioritized TE so not expecting they draft one til late, if at all. It’s a great TE class so I hope they upgrade over Quinten Morris at TE2.

I like the tape in Laporta. He looks like he may be good at the next level. I’d target him in the 3rd though. Not sure he’s worthy of a 2nd. I’d hope for Washington in the 2nd with a trade up possibly. But I’m not sure he’ll last that long. But I think Kincaid, Meyer, and Musgrave should all go ahead of Washington. Maybe even Laporta. Just all depends on how things land 

[Dr. Who]

Dorsey is supposed to favor 12 personnel. It does create mismatches. A strong blocking TE with some offensive ability would be a solid add. Given the positional strength in the draft, I do think there's a decent possibility a relatively early pick could be used.

1 minute ago, mrags said:

I like the tape in Laporta. He looks like he may be good at the next level. I’d target him in the 3rd though. Not sure he’s worthy of a 2nd. I’d hope for Washington in the 2nd with a trade up possibly. But I’m not sure he’ll last that long. But I think Kincaid, Meyer, and Musgrave should all go ahead of Washington. Maybe even Laporta. Just all depends on how things land 

I like Washington. Supposedly we met with him.

[gonzo1105]

You can get both but there is no # 1 WR in this draft with the exception of the upside of Quinton Johnson. JSN is a good WR, Addison, Flowers are good WR's but they are going to be really good # 2's in the NFL or slot guys. The Tight Ends can be really good difference makers.

 

The problem is to run proper 12 personnel you at least need willing blockers if not above average blockers to have that versatility that you mention.  Even the top guys like Kincaid, Musgrave, Kuntz, are pure pass catchers who can't block college guys let alone NFL defenders. Then you have a guy like Darnell Washington who is a great blocker but is a bad route runner who lumbers in and out of his routes.

 

The only two guys that you can pair with Dawson Knox to make a true 12 personnel that you can draft early are Sam LaPorta and Tucker Kraft. I have 100% from the beginning said that Tucker Kraft is the perfect TE for the Buffalo Bills. He fits their character profile, he fits their scheme profile, and he fits the dynamics of a TE who can block and stretch the field vertically and horizontally. He, imo, is Rob Gronkowski lite and with time could become an all Pro type TE. I very rarely set myself this strong on a guy but I really really like him and feel if he's there in round 2 the Bills should take him.  I wouldn't even be against dropping out of the first and taking him early to mid 2nd round.

 

Back to the original is Ken Dorsey actually prefers 12 personnel as its very unique in the fact that defenses have to be more accountable for more parts. If you have Diggs on the outside with whoever else you with Davis and you have Dawson Knox and a high production 2nd TE it stresses a defense because its very hard to cover the entire back 7 across the entirety of the field while also accounting for the fact that you have 7 guys on the line of scrimmage and can run it down their throat at any time.

[DapperCam]

When Knox is out, watching Tommy Sweeney try to actually play TE makes me sad.

[NeverOutNick]

If George Kittle is ever available Buffalo needs to let it rain lol

[mrags]

28 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Dorsey is supposed to favor 12 personnel. It does create mismatches. A strong blocking TE with some offensive ability would be a solid add. Given the positional strength in the draft, I do think there's a decent possibility a relatively early pick could be used.

I like Washington. Supposedly we met with him.

Washington would be my choice. I’d target him in the 2nd. Might have to trade up a little because I don’t think he’ll be there at pick 59. Not after the combine numbers he put up. Hell, some team could go Gaga over him and take him before we pick at 27 for all we know. I’m a fan of Laporta and Kuntz as well. 

[papazoid]

i'm fine drafting a TE day 1 or 2 assuming he is BPA when picked....we need one

 

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

3 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Ive seen enough people lobbying for a TE early in the draft, why?  We've shown it to be a low priority position for 20 years.  For 10 of it, the position has been very overdrafted by the league as a whole.  Its a hard position to project how a player will handle the jump, even ones taken very early.  Theyre molasses slow to develop. A 1k yard TE is an absolute unicorn sighting of an appearance.  Theres a bunch of 1k WRs every year.  First downs? Emphasize the slot.  Elite TE's in the redzone are very special, no denying that.  However, when you consider the miss rate on TEs, it seems like an astronomical price to pay for a position for that leads to less yards, higher bust rates, lower benefits of the rookie contracts with the steep learning curve of years 1 & 2.

 

Im open to being wrong (I expect to get blasted here and Im open to  it), I understand the versatility provided leads to less tipping off your plays by personnel.  If I want yards & TDs, 1st downs, I want a WR. If i want blocking gimme an OL or a lower round blocking TE.  The TD's are less clear cut in making up, but if you cant make them up by scheming them to your WRs and passing to your backs, are you going to be able to scheme them open for a TE?

 

Im not saying Id never draft a TE, but Id be more than OK never drafting one rounds 1-3, and paying a premium in free agency.  Let someone else draft them high, take on the bust risk and get them up to speed. I'll have my FA dollars ready if it's an absolute must have

I don't understand drafting high unknowns when you can get known commodities for cheaper Ala Hockstrap....He's still young too. Should've pulled the trigger, Same with McCaffrey. Those two players would've made us unstoppable on offense.

Edited March 18, 2023 by Sherlock Holmes

[78thealltimegreat]

The thing about getting a top flight TE is you take care of multiple issues…extra blocker on the line…the size allows them to make a contested catch…because the bills don’t use 2TE hardly at all it would give defenses something completely different to gameplan for…quite frankly behind Dawson Knox the TE cupboard is pretty bare on this team…you could lineup a really athletic one as an extra wideout. All the great offenses in the league have effective TE play. 

[gobills404]

Depending on how the board felI I wouldn’t mind drafting Kincaid if I thought Dorsey would actually utilize him effectively. He lines up as a WR most of the time already and looks really good doing it. I definitely agree about not wanting an in line TE though like Mayer/Musgrave/Washington.

Edited March 18, 2023 by gobills404

[Tipster19]

30 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

The thing about getting a top flight TE is you take care of multiple issues…extra blocker on the line…the size allows them to make a contested catch…because the bills don’t use 2TE hardly at all it would give defenses something completely different to gameplan for…quite frankly behind Dawson Knox the TE cupboard is pretty bare on this team…you could lineup a really athletic one as an extra wideout. All the great offenses in the league have effective TE play. 

I totally agree with this and then some. Changing our offense, giving different looks would certainly be advantageous. I truly believe that if prospect(s) that the Bills like are still on the board when they pick in the first 3 rounds then they will take a TE this year.

 

On a side note I’m a bit surprised that Dorcey hasn’t used a lot more TE play than what he has been doing. In Carolina the only one Cam would throw to was Greg Olsen. I’d love to see the Bills draft a HD RB (Robinson) and a great TE, in addition to Knox. Using a jumbo offense with 2 big time TEs would awesome imo. I know Dorsey will be capable to do it, utilize 2 TEs and a bruising RB. That would make Josh more dangerous than ever before! Allen had to be the offense but how nice would it be to have Josh being a great addition to a great offense rather than hoping to have a great offense being a great addition to Josh. It’s time to build a total offense.

[MJS]

I tend to agree. I don't think TE's should be drafted in the first round.

 

Kelce: 3rd rounder

Gronk: 2nd rounder

Kittle: 5th rounder

Andrews: 3rd rounder

Waller: 6th rounder

 

And there are really no other TE's worth mentioning. Do not pay more than a 2nd round pick on a TE.

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, DapperCam said:

When Knox is out, watching Tommy Sweeney try to actually play TE makes me sad.

Sweeney shouldn't be on the roster!! 

[Dr. Who]

2 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

You can get both but there is no # 1 WR in this draft with the exception of the upside of Quinton Johnson. JSN is a good WR, Addison, Flowers are good WR's but they are going to be really good # 2's in the NFL or slot guys. The Tight Ends can be really good difference makers.

 

The problem is to run proper 12 personnel you at least need willing blockers if not above average blockers to have that versatility that you mention.  Even the top guys like Kincaid, Musgrave, Kuntz, are pure pass catchers who can't block college guys let alone NFL defenders. Then you have a guy like Darnell Washington who is a great blocker but is a bad route runner who lumbers in and out of his routes.

 

The only two guys that you can pair with Dawson Knox to make a true 12 personnel that you can draft early are Sam LaPorta and Tucker Kraft. I have 100% from the beginning said that Tucker Kraft is the perfect TE for the Buffalo Bills. He fits their character profile, he fits their scheme profile, and he fits the dynamics of a TE who can block and stretch the field vertically and horizontally. He, imo, is Rob Gronkowski lite and with time could become an all Pro type TE. I very rarely set myself this strong on a guy but I really really like him and feel if he's there in round 2 the Bills should take him.  I wouldn't even be against dropping out of the first and taking him early to mid 2nd round.

 

Back to the original is Ken Dorsey actually prefers 12 personnel as its very unique in the fact that defenses have to be more accountable for more parts. If you have Diggs on the outside with whoever else you with Davis and you have Dawson Knox and a high production 2nd TE it stresses a defense because its very hard to cover the entire back 7 across the entirety of the field while also accounting for the fact that you have 7 guys on the line of scrimmage and can run it down their throat at any time.

Excellent explanation. 

[mrags]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

I tend to agree. I don't think TE's should be drafted in the first round.

 

Kelce: 3rd rounder

Gronk: 2nd rounder

Kittle: 5th rounder

Andrews: 3rd rounder

Waller: 6th rounder

 

And there are really no other TE's worth mentioning. Do not pay more than a 2nd round pick on a TE.

Jeremy Shockey says hi 

[Low Positive]

This is a strong draft for TEs and a weak one for almost every other position.

[JoPoy88]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

I tend to agree. I don't think TE's should be drafted in the first round.

 

Kelce: 3rd rounder

Gronk: 2nd rounder

Kittle: 5th rounder

Andrews: 3rd rounder

Waller: 6th rounder

 

And there are really no other TE's worth mentioning. Do not pay more than a 2nd round pick on a TE.

yeah I have to agree. If I look at the recent outliers to this, Hockenson was a 1 and has already been traded. Pitts could be very good but we don’t know yet because he doesn’t have a QB and they won’t use him correctly.

[MJS]

3 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

yeah I have to agree. If I look at the recent outliers to this, Hockenson was a 1 and has already been traded. Pitts could be very good but we don’t know yet because he doesn’t have a QB and they won’t use him correctly.

And, it's clear you can find top TE's later in the draft.

[GreggTX]

I'd like a decent blocking TE and an average #2 that won't outrun, but a fair run blocker and good hands so you can throw to him once in a while to keep defenses honest.

 

[OldTimer1960]

6 hours ago, mrags said:

I like the tape in Laporta. He looks like he may be good at the next level. I’d target him in the 3rd though. Not sure he’s worthy of a 2nd. I’d hope for Washington in the 2nd with a trade up possibly. But I’m not sure he’ll last that long. But I think Kincaid, Meyer, and Musgrave should all go ahead of Washington. Maybe even Laporta. Just all depends on how things land 

I think Washington won’t make it past the early 2nd round.  I know that he didn’t catch a lot of passes in college, but man his size and speed are really impressive.  His route running at the combine looked a lot smoother than I expected.  I believe they said he had lost about 15 lbs from his playing weight last season.  
 

[HOUSE]

The Bills have a TE disability,  even Travis Kelsey would be to well  covered to get the ball.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

37 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

The Bills have a TE disability,  even Travis Kelsey would be to well  covered to get the ball.

There’s some truth to this. Kelce has said the scheme he plays in would make a lot of TEs in the league just as good as he is. 

[H2o]

I can't see us drafting a TE in Round 1. I just can't. There are a bunch of Day 2 or Day 3 guys I could see us in on though. Look at who they were just going after in FA, Donald Parham, and that kind of gives you the mold they are looking for. 

 

1. Darnell Washington / Georgia 

2. Luke Musgrave / Oregon St.

3. Sam LaPorta / Iowa

4. Luke Schoonmaker / Michigan

5. Josh Whyle / Cincinnati 

 

I left off Michael Mayer and Dalton Kincaid because I believe they both have the chance to be taken in the latter 3rd of the first Round. I love Mayer, but I am a self admitted Notre Dame homer as well.  I love Kincaid's athleticism and what he brings in the passing game, but back injuries scare me a bit. I'm sure his medicals will be a huge factor in where he gets drafted. If either of those guys are around the middle of Day 2, I might pull the trigger to go get one. 

[John from Riverside]

11 hours ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

Folks want the Gronk - Hernandez 1 - 2 punch the Pats had years ago. & With a reportedly weak WR class combined w/ a reportedly strong TE class, there's some that feel this is the best path forward.

I am a big fan of taking at a certain position in the draft whenever that position is supposed to be strong. This appears to be the year for tight ends.
 

My question is how serious where they about moving to too tight end sets last year it didn’t work out, but they had to high profile players at the position in training camp

 

If they are serious about it, then we have enough receivers. I guess that question will get answered at draft time

[mrags]

4 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think Washington won’t make it past the early 2nd round.  I know that he didn’t catch a lot of passes in college, but man his size and speed are really impressive.  His route running at the combine looked a lot smoother than I expected.  I believe they said he had lost about 15 lbs from his playing weight last season.  
 

That’s why I figured a trade up in the 2nd. I do not believe he last to pick 59. Personally I’d love to use our first rd pick on a IOL or if Robinson is there at 27. And I’m not a huge Robinson guy. But I believe in taking. Playmaker with that pick and I’m not a fan of a single WR in the first round unless Johnston falls which he won’t. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

9 hours ago, MJS said:

I tend to agree. I don't think TE's should be drafted in the first round.

 

Kelce: 3rd rounder

Gronk: 2nd rounder

Kittle: 5th rounder

Andrews: 3rd rounder

Waller: 6th rounder

 

And there are really no other TE's worth mentioning. Do not pay more than a 2nd round pick on a TE.

 

 This list is a bit misleading. There's reasons why Gronk and Kelce weren't 1st round picks and it wasn't because of their talent at TE. Gronk fell to the 2nd because of concerns of his back surgery in college. Kelce was a QB at the beginning of his college career and was suspended for a year for violating team rules after his freshman season for failing a drug test(Marijuana). Upon his return Brian Kelly left as HC and new HC Butch Davis converted him to TE. 

 

 

9 hours ago, MJS said:

 

 

Edited March 18, 2023 by LOVEMESOMEBILLS

[Mr. Irrelevant]

In a draft class this deep at TE, the Bills should definitely plan on drafting one starting probably in the 3rd round.  Most definitely on day 3 with one of their picks in the 4th, early 5th, or the 6th.

The Bills should fill needs at LB (replacing Edmonds) OL and DL, but if there is another Travis Kelce or George Kittle in the waiting, grab him in the 2nd.  

 

 

[OldTimer1960]

54 minutes ago, mrags said:

That’s why I figured a trade up in the 2nd. I do not believe he last to pick 59. Personally I’d love to use our first rd pick on a IOL or if Robinson is there at 27. And I’m not a huge Robinson guy. But I believe in taking. Playmaker with that pick and I’m not a fan of a single WR in the first round unless Johnston falls which he won’t. 

I’m with you on more OL and you’re right that they need more play makers.  I’d prefer no RB before @ least the 3rd this year, but I could understand taking Robinson.  Like you, I can’t find a WR that I really like, other than a few small slot guys like Flowers, Downs and Dell.  I don’t think they will take a small receiver - think they will roll with Shakir and Harty in the slot.  I’d love a guy who can play outside and challenge Davis, but who?  I could live with Rashee Rice if he lasts until late 2nd, after that I could see Mingo, Iosivas, Hutchinson or AT Perry.  I think those guys can at least compete with Davis.  Other than that, maybe Jayden Reed.

[mrags]

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I’m with you on more OL and you’re right that they need more play makers.  I’d prefer no RB before @ least the 3rd this year, but I could understand taking Robinson.  Like you, I can’t find a WR that I really like, other than a few small slot guys like Flowers, Downs and Dell.  I don’t think they will take a small receiver - think they will roll with Shakir and Harty in the slot.  I’d love a guy who can play outside and challenge Davis, but who?  I could live with Rashee Rice if he lasts until late 2nd, after that I could see Mingo, Iosivas, Hutchinson or AT Perry.  I think those guys can at least compete with Davis.  Other than that, maybe Jayden Reed.

I like the tape on AT Perry. Think you could get him in 3rd or maybe even 4th. 

[Nextmanup]

15 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Ive seen enough people lobbying for a TE early in the draft, why?  We've shown it to be a low priority position for 20 years.  For 10 of it, the position has been very overdrafted by the league as a whole.  Its a hard position to project how a player will handle the jump, even ones taken very early.  Theyre molasses slow to develop. A 1k yard TE is an absolute unicorn sighting of an appearance.  Theres a bunch of 1k WRs every year.  First downs? Emphasize the slot.  Elite TE's in the redzone are very special, no denying that.  However, when you consider the miss rate on TEs, it seems like an astronomical price to pay for a position for that leads to less yards, higher bust rates, lower benefits of the rookie contracts with the steep learning curve of years 1 & 2.

 

Im open to being wrong (I expect to get blasted here and Im open to  it), I understand the versatility provided leads to less tipping off your plays by personnel.  If I want yards & TDs, 1st downs, I want a WR. If i want blocking gimme an OL or a lower round blocking TE.  The TD's are less clear cut in making up, but if you cant make them up by scheming them to your WRs and passing to your backs, are you going to be able to scheme them open for a TE?

 

Im not saying Id never draft a TE, but Id be more than OK never drafting one rounds 1-3, and paying a premium in free agency.  Let someone else draft them high, take on the bust risk and get them up to speed. I'll have my FA dollars ready if it's an absolute must have

Judging how the current administration values the TE position by what other people have done for 20 years is foolish and irrelevant.

Actually, Beane has shown he values the position rather highly; look at the K he gave to Knox.  

 

The position was underused last year, but that's probably mostly on Dorsey.  

 

Anyway, we aren't drafting a TE early, or probably late for that matter.

 

 

[In Summary]

13 hours ago, dje85 said:

Beane seems to have an obsession with taking wrs later in the draft.

Yes. I don’t fully get why either. Obsession with D line, ghosts of Zay Jones, ??. Hopefully WR and OL are now on his DRAFT radar in a serios way.

[mrags]

19 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Judging how the current administration values the TE position by what other people have done for 20 years is foolish and irrelevant.

Actually, Beane has shown he values the position rather highly; look at the K he gave to Knox.  

 

The position was underused last year, but that's probably mostly on Dorsey.  

 

Anyway, we aren't drafting a TE early, or probably late for that matter.

 

 

Only thing I can think of working against this argument is that Josh needs more weapons and more protection. It’s a win win for an extra in line blocker that can be utilized as a weapon in the passing game as well. There’s a few in this draft that would fit the Bill (pun intended) 

[wppete]

 

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, wppete said:

 

That game against USC was one for the ages for this guy he’d be the only TE I would consider in round 1 I think he’s even better then Meyers at Notre Dame 

Edited March 18, 2023 by 78thealltimegreat

[wppete]

46 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

That game against USC was one for the ages for this guy he’d be the only TE I would consider in round 1 I think he’s even better then Meyers at Notre Dame 

Im really starting to think this could be a gel tear pick if he is still available especially if we trade for a big time RB. 2 TE package could a massive miss match with Knox and Kincaid and a RB like Henry.

 

Allen

Henry

 

Knox 

Kincaid

 

Diggs 

Harty

[Airseven]

I don’t expect the OL to be much improved (incredibly), but Knox needs to be freed up as a primary pass catcher. Morris is a nice depth guy, be they need a capable inline TE. R4/R5 could do the trick.