Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?

[Chaos]

Gabe Davis is a bit of an anomaly on the current Bills. His best play comes in the playoffs rather than the regular season.  

 

The reason I asking "Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?" is because Spotrac ranks him as having a higher market value than either Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver or Jordan Poyer. Spotrac bases is ranking on actual production vs comps.  No eye tests involved.  Based on production, the comps Spotrac sees for Davis are Christian Kirk, Russell Gage, Michael Gallup, Hunter Renfrow.  For all of the discussion around Tremaine Edmunds being virtually a child in years, Davis is actually a year younger, and only 23  now.  He will be the same age as Edmunds when he becomes a free agent next year. 

 

[GunnerBill]

Do the Bills? No. Do Bills fans? Yes, some. He is a lower end #2 receiver but there are folks on here saying he is a #3 or a #4 and that is plain wrong. Spotrac's projections are not always my cup of tea but Michael Gallop as a comparator for Gabe makes a ton of sense. Similar level of player. A lower end #2 who makes big plays but has a low catch rate. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Do we under appreciate Gabe Davis?

 

Gabe Davis:

Edited February 20, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[JaCrispy]

It’s not that Gabe doesn’t produce…It’s that, given all his opportunities and his limited skill set, he under produces imo…

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, JaCrispy said:

It’s not that Gabe doesn’t produce…It’s that, given all his opportunities and his limited skill set, he under produces imo…

In this offense the #2 WR should be 1,000+ yards and 10 TD player consistently.

[dollars 2 donuts]

Just now, Buffalo_Stampede said:

In this offense the #2 WR should be 1,000+ yards and 10 TD player consistently.

 

Stamp, Amen.  How many times do we have to say this?  

 

Why is this even a point of contention with anybody on this subject?!

 

Scratch out any dates.  The years don't matter.  The stat reference should essentially be in any given year, "Josh Allen, QB.  Thousand yard receivers: Stephon Diggs and ____________."

 

 

[Doc]

His drops are concerning for a #2 WR/hoping to be #1.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

The man giving new meaning to the phrase "Saving him for the playoffs".

😁

[Billz4ever]

Look at Cincy's trio.  Gabe's numbers are more on par with Boyd (WR3) than Higgins (WR2) and there's no way that should be the case in an offense that passes as much as the Bills.

[Gregg]

He probably would be very effective in this offense as the #3 WR. Hopefully Beane can upgrade at #2 WR to go opposite Diggs. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

Look at Cincy's trio.  Gabe's numbers are more on par with Boyd (WR3) than Higgins (WR2) and there's no way that should be the case in an offense that passes as much as the Bills.

 

Yes but Higgins is really a #1 just pigeon holed as a #2 because of the offense. He is the definition of a premium #2. Gabe isn't that. 

[The Jokeman]

4 minutes ago, Gregg said:

He probably would be very effective in this offense as the #3 WR. Hopefully Beane can upgrade at #2 WR to go opposite Diggs. 

We just need a more reliable target in the passing game that can help move the chains, see Beasley v 2.0 I was hoping Crowder could fill that role last season but sadly his chemistry with Josh was off (perhaps because was splitting reps with McKenzie) and then he got hurt. I'd welcome adding another low cost vet to man the middle as it were. I've mentioned Greg Dortch and Richie James as possible guys that likely be affordable options. 

[Billz4ever]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes but Higgins is really a #1 just pigeon holed as a #2 because of the offense. He is the definition of a premium #2. Gabe isn't that. 

 

Pointing to Higgins numbers doesn't explain why Boyd's numbers are on par with Davis though. Davis is clearly underperforming in an offense that passes as much as we do as the WR2.

 

 

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, The Jokeman said:

We just need a more reliable target in the passing game that can help move the chains, see Beasley v 2.0 I was hoping Crowder could fill that role last season but sadly his chemistry with Josh was off (perhaps because was splitting reps with McKenzie) and then he got hurt. I'd welcome adding another low cost vet to man the middle as it were. I've mentioned Greg Dortch and Richie James as possible guys that likely be affordable options. 

 

How is the draft this year for WR's? I expect the Bills will go OL in RD 1 but maybe they can get a good WR in the later rounds.

[The Jokeman]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes but Higgins is really a #1 just pigeon holed as a #2 because of the offense. He is the definition of a premium #2. Gabe isn't that. 

Davis ranked 33rd last year in receiving yards despite his drop issues, one could argue that's the best #2 WR in the league but of course he's not as some top guys on other teams didn't rank in the top 32. Davis isn't an elite #2 but would call him above average. 

[BarleyNY]

27 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Gabe Davis is a bit of an anomaly on the current Bills. His best play comes in the playoffs rather than the regular season.  

 

The reason I asking "Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?" is because Spotrac ranks him as having a higher market value than either Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver or Jordan Poyer. Spotrac bases is ranking on actual production vs comps.  No eye tests involved.  Based on production, the comps Spotrac sees for Davis are Christian Kirk, Russell Gage, Michael Gallup, Hunter Renfrow.  For all of the discussion around Tremaine Edmunds being virtually a child in years, Davis is actually a year younger, and only 23  now.  He will be the same age as Edmunds when he becomes a free agent next year. 

 

I think the fans who have primarily looked at the handful of highly productive games Davis has had tend to overvalue him. Or at least they did last off-season. Most of those fans now undervalue him because he didn’t sustain anything close to the level of production he had against KC in the AFCC game.

 

The reality is that he’s very good at some aspects of the WR job and poor at others. Naturally he’s going to have some favorable matchups in some games where what he does well works. But he’s going to have a lot of games where he’s limited. Things were worse in that regard this past season. Even though he got more opportunities as a starter, defenses planned better for him and were able to limit his production.

 

So we don’t have a stud WR2 in him, but he’s got a place in the NFL for sure. Unfortunately he’s not a guy I want to see the Bills pay to stick around. He’s an okay outside WR, but he shouldn’t be a team’s #2 receiving option - and I wouldn’t pay him anything close to Spotrac’s estimate. 

[Ramza86]

I think Gabe is a good player. 

 

While hes had some annoying drops, I think hes made some much bigger catches in needed situations. 

 

I think he needs to keep working on his craft and we need someone upstairs who can create football plays that allows players to get open.

 

 

[John from Riverside]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes but Higgins is really a #1 just pigeon holed as a #2 because of the offense. He is the definition of a premium #2. Gabe isn't that. 

Tee Higgins is a very good player

[The Jokeman]

2 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

How is the draft this year for WR's? I expect the Bills will go OL in RD 1 but maybe they can get a good WR in the later rounds.

I haven't studied the draft hard yet but a guy like Marvin Mims Jr could be available in Round 2 and be a dangerous slot guy with some speed. Yet he isn't the most reliable in terms of hands. 

[RocCityRoller]

YES. I went on a rant Isaiah Hodgins versus Gabe Davis thread and showed where Davis ranks on things like yards/ yards per reception/ first down %/ TDs and TD%.

Davis ranked anywhere from 5th to 33rd in the league last year on all those metrics among all players receiving passes in the NFL.

Spotrac probably looked at a similar set of data points and has a similar conclusion.

They have been really off at times, and so have I, but the narrative on this board in particular about Davis is ridiculous.

 

And yes, I agree the Bills do need to draft a WR early this year for multiple reasons.

[Donuts and Doritos]

54.1% career catch percentage.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/what-is-gabriel-davis-catch-percentage-career#:~:text=Gabe Davis has caught 54.1 percent of targets in his career.

 

 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Donuts and Doritos

[Warcodered]

He had a down year with the drops and it seems like some people want to throw him off the boat, but he could absolutely bounce back next year.

[78thealltimegreat]

 Other than Roger Saffold the biggest miss on the entire roster was the belief that Gabe who is a really good 3 receiver is a good 2 receiver. 
  I don’t blame Brandon for feeling he really didn’t need to upgrade based on the Chiefs game. 
 He just isn’t he doesn’t even run an entire route tree ask Patrick Peterson. 
 Next year I’ll be very happy moving him inside with an upgrade to the outside. 
 

Edited February 20, 2023 by 78thealltimegreat

[PrimeTime101]

31 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Gabe Davis is a bit of an anomaly on the current Bills. His best play comes in the playoffs rather than the regular season.  

 

The reason I asking "Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?" is because Spotrac ranks him as having a higher market value than either Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver or Jordan Poyer. Spotrac bases is ranking on actual production vs comps.  No eye tests involved.  Based on production, the comps Spotrac sees for Davis are Christian Kirk, Russell Gage, Michael Gallup, Hunter Renfrow.  For all of the discussion around Tremaine Edmunds being virtually a child in years, Davis is actually a year younger, and only 23  now.  He will be the same age as Edmunds when he becomes a free agent next year. 

 

this data is comparing his numbers from 21-22 and not what he did 22-23. he REGRESSED big time. Gabe's catch rate is extremely low this year. They put him at #2 WR and HE FAILED... Why do you think they rushed to add wr's at the end of the year? cause if Gabe was doing his job then it would not be an issue.

 

Someone around here with full PFF stats, please show this guy what gabe produced and his numbers compared to others on this list this LAST YEAR... not the year before...

 

please... your acting like this year didnt happen

[Einstein]

 

[Bermuda Triangle]

Davis was one of 42 receivers with more than 93 regular season targets last season.

 

Among those 42 receivers, he was:

- last in receptions (48)

- last in catch percentage (51.6%)

- 30th in receiving yards (836)

- 36th in catches that resulted in first downs (35)

- tied for 12th in TD receptions (7)

 

He had 3 or fewer catches in 10/15 of his regular season games.

 

Courtesy of The Buffalo News 

[RocCityRoller]

1 minute ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

54.1% career catch percentage.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/what-is-gabriel-davis-catch-percentage-career#:~:text=Gabe Davis has caught 54.1 percent of targets in his career.

 

 

Davis was targeted 93 times last year.

he had 48 receptions and 8 drops (analytical sites show 7 or 8 )

That is 56 targets.

What were the other 37 'targets'? (40%)

[GolfandBills]

He’s pretty much a one trick pony and he’s pretty good at that trick.  WR#2 needs to be more well rounded 

[Tenhigh]

6 minutes ago, Ramza86 said:

I think Gabe is a good player. 

 

While hes had some annoying drops, I think hes made some much bigger catches in needed situations. 

 

I think he needs to keep working on his craft and we need someone upstairs who can create football plays that allows players to get open.

 

 

.....allows players to get open for reasons other than the QB had to scramble out of a collapsed pocket.

[Royale with Cheese]

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Do the Bills? No. Do Bills fans? Yes, some. He is a lower end #2 receiver but there are folks on here saying he is a #3 or a #4 and that is plain wrong. Spotrac's projections are not always my cup of tea but Michael Gallop as a comparator for Gabe makes a ton of sense. Similar level of player. A lower end #2 who makes big plays but has a low catch rate. 

 

I think it's a legitimate argument to say he's a #3.  He's too unreliable to be a #2.  He's a big play guy but not consistent.  

I think a low end #2 is Emmanuel Sanders last year.

 

Gabe Davis to me could be an okay #2 if he isn't #2 in targets.  If we involved Dawson Knox in the passing game more and have a really strong slot...maybe Gabe could work.

[PrimeTime101]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

i would argue how many of these Diggs would catch

[Bermuda Triangle]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Yikes 

[DapperCam]

1 minute ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

Davis was one of 42 receivers with more than 93 regular season targets last season.

 

Among those 42 receivers, he was:

- last in receptions (48)

- last in catch percentage (51.6%)

- 30th in receiving yards (836)

- 36th in catches that resulted in first downs (35)

- tied for 12th in TD receptions (7)

 

He had 3 or fewer catches in 10/15 of his regular season games.

 

Courtesy of The Buffalo News 

Not to mention a bunch of Allen’s interceptions were Davis targets. Idk if it was David’ fault, but those guys were not on the same page all year.

 

A #2 WR who can get separation and catch consistently should produce like a #1 in this offense. Considering how many targets they get and how good Allen is.

[PrimeTime101]

5 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

Davis was targeted 93 times last year.

he had 48 receptions and 8 drops (analytical sites show 7 or 8 )

That is 56 targets.

What were the other 37 'targets'? (40%)

your mixing catch percent with drop rate.

[corta765]

Bills? No

Fans? Yes but understandably so. He has shown some incredible flashes in his time here.

 

The Bills gambled he could move up to a true WR2 roll last year and the results were middling for what you want/depend on with a WR2. For fans that was a let down, but realistically he produced the same as he had which is more a WR3 role. I have said he is a perfect WR3, but I doubt he will take a contract like that after next season. If he ever wants to elevate his role he needs to use his body far better in contested catches and more importantly be more reliable as a pass catcher #baddrops

[Ramza86]

3 minutes ago, Tenhigh said:

.....allows players to get open for reasons other than the QB had to scramble out of a collapsed pocket.

 

That is a massive problem yes. Oline has been awful for Allens entire career though, Daboll at least was able to hide it a little better than Dorsey.

 

I think in order to take this offense to its perfect level (Balanced)....it needs a true WR2 a MUCH better Oline...and a really good offensive playcaller/mentality

 

 

[whorlnut]

Underappreciate?  No way…if anything, they overappreciate him. He was handed the number 2 job without any competition, which is something the FO is usually emphatic about. They broke their own philosophy and it but them.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

10 minutes ago, GolfandBills said:

He’s pretty much a one trick pony and he’s pretty good at that trick.  WR#2 needs to be more well rounded 

He definitely has a role in the offense but he shouldn’t be WR2. 

[Billz4ever]

20 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

He had a down year with the drops and it seems like some people want to throw him off the boat, but he could absolutely bounce back next year.

 

Maybe he will, maybe he won't, but you can't risk another entire season hoping someone performs up to expectations.

 

WR2 must be addressed in the draft or via FA...the draft being the preferred method.

[gobills404]

No. I think he's over-hated by BIlls fans and over-targeted by Josh. Whether it's more Knox, more Cook/Hines,  improved play from the slot, or adding a do-it-all WR2 the Bills need to do a much better job attacking the short to intermediate areas of the field.  A WR with an extremely limited downfield route tree shouldn't be getting nearly as many targets as he does.

Edited February 22, 2023 by gobills404