PFF's Top 100 likely free agents....Athletic top 150 free agents......other free agent articles

[BADOLBILZ]

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-free-agent-rankings-free-agency

 

Surprised to see they think Poyer only gets 2 years $8.5M per season but it makes sense given how busted up he was this season.

 

They seem to believe a lot of the massive crop of RB's available get franchised..........which is the relatively low $10M per because they are just runnin' bax, afterall.

 

The people dying to expend the Bills first round pick on a RB or Guard check out some of those low contract estimates.............you don't use first round picks on positions that command such modest dollars in UFA.    

 

Added 2/16.......... 15 players who could be cut and become free agents:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-aaron-rodgers-joe-mixon-among-15-players-who-could-be-on-new-teams-via-trade-as-cap-casualty/

 

Also CBS top 25 offensive free agents:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-free-agency-2023-ranking-top-25-offensive-free-agents-as-qbs-dominate-list-of-players-likely-available/

 

CBS top 25 defensive free agents:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-free-agency-2023-ranking-top-25-defensive-players-as-eagles-trio-among-10-best-available-including-no-1/

 

Edmunds #9 behind a slot CB/S in Chauncey GJ

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-free-agency-unheralded-players-who-should-be-kept-off-the-market-by-the

 

RB D'Onta Foreman is an interesting potential bargain option for Bills from the "who should be kept off market" list 

 

Best team fits?:

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/35673514/2023-nfl-free-agency-best-team-fits-top-50-available-players-free-agent-landing-spots-new-deals

 

Ben Powers to Bills.   Jordan Poyer to Patriots.

 

Here is The Athletic top 150 free agents list:

 

https://theathletic.com/4242104/2023/02/27/nfl-free-agent-rankings-list/

 

Edmunds 14th

 

@chongli added PFT's top 100 free agents:

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/02/27/nfl-top-100-2023-free-agents-lamar-jackson-derek-carr-geno-smith-top-the-list/

Edited February 27, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

#29 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

 

 Ouch. Eagles have 5 FAs in the top 28 on this list. 

[GunnerBill]

#28 for me.

 

Have to say as well I think I'd do Tremaine at that price. 

Edited February 5, 2023 by GunnerBill

[GolfandBills]

14 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

#29 

Would be nice but I’m looking at bargain bin guys unfortunately 

[Victory Formation]

Quote

58. TE MIKE GESICKI, MIAMI DOLPHINS

Contract Projection: One year, $11 million; $10 million total guaranteed

Yes, please. How about 3yrs $24M? Would be great as our slot WR and backup TE.

[Maine-iac]

At the price that article thinks you could sign Peters for I'd take a swing on signing him to go across from White.  Hell at 4 mil for one year I'd bring Houston along with him.  Couple of great guard options as people have already mentioned.

[78thealltimegreat]

2 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Ouch. Eagles have 5 FAs in the top 28 on this list. 

Jerry Jones did say the Eagles really went for it this year and hate to say it but he’s right they are going to get hit hard in free agency 

[BADOLBILZ]

19 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

#28 for me.

 

Have to say as well I think I'd do Tremaine at that price. 

 

I'm on board with change on defense so I'm inclined to let Edmunds walk and see if we can't become more of a team that funnels the run to the middle than outside and in the process get better at rushing the passer............but I know there is potential for Edmunds to get a lot better still.............and he could sign a very long contract at his age which would allow for a couple years of cheap cap hits.    It's a lot more tempting around $15M than $18M-$20M.

 

Lot's of players on that list that are short term that I'd take.

 

The guy not on that list that I'm hoping comes free is Calais Campbell.   Just a personal favorite and good culture/physicality fit for a ring chaser.  

 

And I do wonder if they will be an interested party on one of those inexpensive old pass rushers this time around if they don't think Miller will be back to 100% early next season.

[billieve420]

19 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

Yes, please. How about 3yrs $24M? Would be great as our slot WR and backup TE.

 

Not a fan of Gesicki as a player. Invisible at times and terrible blocker. Rather go cheap there since we paid knox and I think Morris is fine as a #3. Would rather look to the draft for cheap cost controlled player who is better all around.

Edited February 6, 2023 by billieve420

[nucci]

19 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Ouch. Eagles have 5 FAs in the top 28 on this list. 

and 2 1st round picks to help

[Billz4ever]

6 minutes ago, billieve420 said:

 

Not a fan of Gesicki as a player. Invisible at times and terrible blocker. Rather go cheap there since we paid knox and I think Morris is fine as a #3. Would rather look to the draft for cheap cost controlled player who is better all around.

Spending $10M on a TE that can't block makes no sense to this team.

[skibum]

I wonder if the Bills would be able to keep Poyer at $8.5M per year for two more years, if that's all it took. I'm guessing it's still too many dollars for their cap situation, even if it is good value. 

[NeverOutNick]

Shoot after seeing this list, if Edmunds walks and since we’re in a SB window I sign Lavonte David for cheaper than what Edmunds is getting on that 2 year deal. He’s still a great LB

[MJS]

21 minutes ago, billieve420 said:

Not a fan of Gesicki as a player. Invisible at times and terrible blocker. Rather go cheap there since we paid knox and I think Morris is fine as a #3. Would rather look to the draft for cheap cost controlled player who is better all around.

Agreed. He dissapears for entire stretches of the season. Bills fans think of him well because he has had a few good games against us.

 

He is not very good, honestly.

[Gregg]

Dov Kleiman on Twitter: "#Chargers star Keenan Allen, and TE Gerald Everett are "most likely" cuts for the team, per @danielrpopper LAC can save $14.8 million in cap space by releasing Allen and $4.25 million by cutting Everett. The Chargers are currently $23.4M over the cap. https://t.co/VIhDsNWaba https://t.co/dJyUcGS7Nx" / Twitter

[Nephilim17]

I'd rather spend $20 million on 2 good guards than pay Edmunds $15 or $16 million and have a few million left.

Get 2 quality guards in FA, draft 2 O-lineman (and a receiving weapon with elite speed or good speed and size and ability to win 50/50 balls) and I'm happy.

[BADOLBILZ]

9 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

I'd rather spend $20 million on 2 good guards than pay Edmunds $15 or $16 million and have a few million left.

Get 2 quality guards in FA, draft 2 O-lineman (and a receiving weapon with elite speed or good speed and size and ability to win 50/50 balls) and I'm happy.

 

 

The problem is that the available guards all project as short term fixes...........none of those G's are players like Edmunds who could conceivably play at a top 10 MLB level......and maybe ascend to All Pro level in that time.......for 5-7 more years.    

 

If that is the case you can backload the cap hits on Edmunds deal and keep going back to him for re-structures for a few years etc.. because he projects to have value in 5+ years.

 

The guards are all your typical warty, short term fixes.   Mostly guys who ascended to league average starter for the first time in their walk years.    I am down with adding those players rather than using premium picks on them...........but they might be trash after a couple years and then if you haven't front loaded their deals to some extent they become a real burden.    That's the Bills problem........they can't front load deals.     

[MrEpsYtown]

Off that list, here are my thoughts: 

 

I think Poyer and Edmunds are our no. 1 targets. Outside of those two, I can't see us working in that top 50. 

 

Germaine Pratt makes a ton of sense as a Tremaine replacement. He's not as big as Tremaine, but makes up for it in instincts. He is a former safety turned linebacker and I just really always liked his game. His RAS was elite coming out as well. He is going to be cheaper than Tremaine. 

 

If Tremaine goes I think they also look at Drue Tranquill. I think Pratt is better, but Tranquill makes plays and will be cheaper than both those guys. he is a little older and has a bit less of a track record from injuries. 

 

A guy I have not seen a ton of people talking about is Juan Thornhill. A former corner turned safety who is very long, fast, and tackles. His RAS score was big time running 4.42. He has been a really solid contributor in KC since day 1 and the projection here is 5.5 million per year? I'll take it. The Bills were all over him pre draft but drafted Cody Ford instead :(.  

 

Finally I talked about it a lot on here, but I think their OL target should be Connor McGovern of the Jets. Plays center or guard. he is still young with a nasty disposition. Sign him, put Bates at LG and stick McGovern next to Brown. He is a former linemate of Mitch Morse and could potentially replace him if he decides to retire at some point. PFF has him at 7.5 per year. 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[Nephilim17]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The problem is that the available guards all project as short term fixes...........none of those G's are players like Edmunds who could conceivably play at a top 10 MLB level......and maybe ascend to All Pro level in that time.......for 5-7 more years.    

 

If that is the case you can backload the cap hits on Edmunds deal and keep going back to him for re-structures for a few years etc.. because he projects to have value in 5+ years.

 

The guards are all your typical warty, short term fixes.   Mostly guys who ascended to league average starter for the first time in their walk years.    I am down with adding those players rather than using premium picks on them...........but they might be trash after a couple years and then if you haven't front loaded their deals to some extent they become a real burden.    That's the Bills problem........they can't front load deals.     

I hear you.

But given that the O-linemen we draft, even in the first three rounds, may not start year one, what's the alternative? I'm not being sarcastic here but I'd like to know how you would fix the O-line issue with this team? 

 

For example, ould you spend double the money ($15 million plus) on one premium guard or tackle? 

[Airseven]

43, 60, 61, 75, 76

[thenorthremembers]

Not sure who is doing their contract projections, but I think they are way off on a lot of these.    If I am Josh Jacobs and my agent gets me the exact same contract as Tony Pollard and Saquon Barkley I am firing him.    

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I'm on board with change on defense so I'm inclined to let Edmunds walk and see if we can't become more of a team that funnels the run to the middle than outside and in the process get better at rushing the passer............but I know there is potential for Edmunds to get a lot better still.............and he could sign a very long contract at his age which would allow for a couple years of cheap cap hits.    It's a lot more tempting around $15M than $18M-$20M.

 

Lot's of players on that list that are short term that I'd take.

 

The guy not on that list that I'm hoping comes free is Calais Campbell.   Just a personal favorite and good culture/physicality fit for a ring chaser.  

 

And I do wonder if they will be an interested party on one of those inexpensive old pass rushers this time around if they don't think Miller will be back to 100% early next season.

Agreed about Campbell. Would you rather have Edmunds at the high price he's listed at or the much cheaper Lavonte David for a the two-year deal he's listed at?

[947]

If Dalton Risner is projected at $7M, that should easily be our first target. Gas up Terry's jet.

[4merper4mer]

19 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Not sure who is doing their contract projections, but I think they are way off on a lot of these.    If I am Josh Jacobs and my agent gets me the exact same contract as Tony Pollard and Saquon Barkley I am firing him.    

I think the assumption was that all three were getting tagged and that is the RB number.

[Mr. WEO]

I stopped at "the most electrifying player in the NFL"...

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

23 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Ouch. Eagles have 5 FAs in the top 28 on this list. 

what happens when you draft well

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 hours ago, 947 said:

If Dalton Risner is projected at $7M, that should easily be our first target. Gas up Terry's jet.

I would rather go with rookie OL and sign a WR with that money. You can get top talent interior OL in the late 1st and 2nd rounds.

Edited February 6, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[LittleSammy]

Forgetting about Poyer and Edmunds for the moment, and assuming PFF's Top 100 is accurate, I would not be too concerned about losing the vast majority of any of our free agents this year.

[Billl]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The problem is that the available guards all project as short term fixes...........none of those G's are players like Edmunds who could conceivably play at a top 10 MLB level......and maybe ascend to All Pro level in that time.......for 5-7 more years.    

 

If that is the case you can backload the cap hits on Edmunds deal and keep going back to him for re-structures for a few years etc.. because he projects to have value in 5+ years.

 

The guards are all your typical warty, short term fixes.   Mostly guys who ascended to league average starter for the first time in their walk years.    I am down with adding those players rather than using premium picks on them...........but they might be trash after a couple years and then if you haven't front loaded their deals to some extent they become a real burden.    That's the Bills problem........they can't front load deals.     

Serviceable Guards grow on trees.  If you’re targeting an all-pro caliber player in FA, that’s one thing, but there’s simply no excuse for having to pay $8-$10 million for a JAG.  There are 10 guys out there right now waiting to be drafted on day 3 who can provide a similar level of play.  When you’re up against the cap, you’d better be able to find those guys.  Beane’s been successful throwing money at problems for the past 4 years, but that money is running out quickly.  He’s got to start stacking wins in the draft immediately, or there’s going to be one hell of a mess to clean up in 2024.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

I hear you.

But given that the O-linemen we draft, even in the first three rounds, may not start year one, what's the alternative? I'm not being sarcastic here but I'd like to know how you would fix the O-line issue with this team? 

 

For example, ould you spend double the money ($15 million plus) on one premium guard or tackle? 

 

There are no premium guards on the market..........which is unusual..........there usually are.    I don't see them making a high dollar free agent move at tackle with their prized draft pick Spencer Brown still viewed as ascending.

 

Seumalo is maybe the top of the market guard this year...........and he's just now ascended to being a quality starter for the first time........in year 7......going into his age 30 season. 

 

I expect they will sign someone like Will Hernandez.......or a more athletic option in the same price range if they insist on trying to be an outside zone blocking unit.......... and then go into the draft looking for at least one OL in the first 2 days.     

 

 

[Nephilim17]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

There are no premium guards on the market..........which is unusual..........there usually are.    I don't see them making a high dollar free agent move at tackle with their prized draft pick Spencer Brown still viewed as ascending.

 

Seumalo is maybe the top of the market guard this year...........and he's just now ascended to being a quality starter for the first time........in year 7......going into his age 30 season. 

 

I expect they will sign someone like Will Hernandez.......or a more athletic option in the same price range if they insist on trying to be an outside zone blocking unit.......... and then go into the draft looking for at least one OL in the first 2 days.     

 

 

Thanks. So if no guarantees of a rookie starting I'm guessing you won't be shocked if we only have one new starter on the O-line this year. Not the overhaul many want or expect.

[BillsFan2313]

Cut Morse and sign Pocic And Herndandez

[Alphadawg7]

A guy to look out for IMHO is LB Azeez Al-Shaair of the 49ers.  He could be a much cheaper Edmunds replacement.  This is assuming we don't resign Edmunds.  

 

And if I am Beane, I am looking at all the money and picks spent on the defense that netted the #1 and #2 ranked defenses the last 2 years yet still was abused in the postseason by KC and Cincy.  Both of which went out to lose their very next games and saw their offenses shut down by lower ranked defenses.  

 

So at this point...if they insist on rolling with Frazier (foolishly) one more time, Beane might as well cut costs and sign a guy who can do a lot of things Edmunds does but for a lot cheaper.  Then let Edmunds walk and go spend on OL and playmaker help for the offense instead. 

[BillsShredder83]

On 2/5/2023 at 4:30 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-free-agent-rankings-free-agency

 

Surprised to see they think Poyer only gets 2 years $8.5M per season but it makes sense given how busted up he was this season.

 

They seem to believe a lot of the massive crop of RB's available get franchised..........which is the relatively low $10M per because they are just runnin' bax, afterall.

 

The people dying to expend the Bills first round pick on a RB or Guard check out some of those low contract estimates.............you don't use first round picks on positions that command such modest dollars in UFA.     

I cant take anything serious when i see Geno at #2 with this:

 

Contract Projection: Four years, $150 million ($37.5M per year); $112.5 million total guaranteed

[Nephilim17]

51 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

I cant take anything serious when i see Geno at #2 with this:

 

Contract Projection: Four years, $150 million ($37.5M per year); $112.5 million total guaranteed

That is nuts. But what's crazier is that some team looking to compete will likely pay somewhere in that ball park. Unbelievable.

[Devilmann]

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

I cant take anything serious when i see Geno at #2 with this:

 

Contract Projection: Four years, $150 million ($37.5M per year); $112.5 million total guaranteed

I was thinking the same thing. I stopped looking at the list when I saw Daniel Jones’s numbers. If any GM pays that much for them two they deserved to be fired. 

[aristocrat]

If poyer is at 8.5 I thinks we keeps him over edmunds 

[SCBills]

7 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

what happens when you draft well

 

They drafted 2 of the 5. 

[John from Riverside]

Ben Powers