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harmonkillebrew

By harmonkillebrew
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harmonkillebrew

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Not bad. thoughts?

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2023-nfl-playoffs-picks-eagles-top-49ers-in-nfc-title-game-thriller-bengals-beat-chiefs-in-afc-championship/

 

Releases (cap savings):  

WR Isaiah McKenzie ($2.6M)

S Siran Neal ($2.2M)

C Mitch Morse ($5.1M)

The Morse release wouldn't be a move the Bills would be happy making, but given he suffered another concussion this season and the fact he's turning 31 in April, it would hardly come as a shock. Morse was a low-key vital piece to Allen's maturation, and even took a pay cut to stay with the team previously. These are the type of difficult decisions teams have to make when there's a huge quarterback contract on the books. Morse retiring wouldn't be surprising either. 

McKenzie's hyped summer never materialized into a breakout, and at this juncture, even his $2.5M cap hit in 2023 is not an worthy expenditure for the Bills. 

Neal has been a quality special teamer. As a defender, he's never found his footing in any one role. 

 

Restructures

QB Josh Allen

This restructure was essentially bound to happen after Allen signed his well-deserved, monster extension in the summer of 2021. The simple restructuring of the soon-to-be 27-year-old's contract will create $21.5 million in cap space, bringing Buffalo's total to around $27 million. Around $10 million needs to be saved for the 2023 draft class and low-level re-signings.

 

Notable re-signings (2022 cap hit)

LB Tremaine Edmunds ($12.7M)

EDGE Shaq Lawson ($1.1M)

Edmunds has matured into a key, unique cog in the middle of Buffalo's defense at 6-feet-4 and 250-plus pounds with tremendous range, high-end coverage ability, and recently shored up tackling reliability. He'll only be 25 in May, so Buffalo can push the large cap hit chunks of Edmunds extension well into the future. His 2023 cap hit could be as low as $3M or $4M. 

Lawson wasn't a game-changer in his second stint with the Bills. He did flash at times as a rusher and maintained his status as a quality outside run-stopper. He'd likely cost less around $1M on a one-year deal. At this stage, the Bills would have roughly $12 million in 2023 cap to spend in free agency. 

 

 

Notable free-agent signings (projected 2023 cap hit)

S Andrew Wingard ($3M) 

G Will Hernandez ($2M)

WR Greg Dortch ($3M)

EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo ($3M)

 

Wingard was a full-time safety in 2021 in Jacksonville and emerged as a solid all-around player. In 2022, he was relegated to a reserve/backup role, seeing only 223 snaps. A truly versatile playmaker, Wingard is big and aggressive enough to make plays near the line but was a ballhawk in college as a free safety, when he was teammates with Allen at Wyoming. He feels like the type of lower-priced free agent with upside the Bills would love to develop in a starter role. 

Hernandez was an early second-round pick in the 2018 draft and while he mostly underwhelmed with the Giants, he turned in a quality 2022 in a prove-it situation with the Cardinals. With Arizona likely undergoing a rebuild of some sort, Hernandez is unlikely to be re-signed and would be a strong, wide-bodied instant starter at left guard for the Bills in 2023. 

Dortch is a young, former undrafted free agent who, when finally given an opportunity in 2022, showcased his dynamic abilities from the slot position. He forced a whopping 13 missed tackles on 52 receptions and did not have a drop all year. The Bills have promise at inside receiver with 2022 fifth-round pick Khalil Shakir, and Dortch would provide legitimate, veteran competition there. 

 

Okoronkwo went in the fifth round of the 2018 draft, and after largely being buried on the Rams depth chart at the beginning stage of his career, he signed a one-year deal with the Texans and was a pass-rushing success in Houston this past season with 36 pressures on 268 pass-rushing snaps (13.4% pressure rate), both of which were career highs. He's the smaller, bendy type rusher the Bills need to add to the outside pass rush group beyond Von Miller. 

 

Draft (mock selections)   

Round 1 - Parker Washington, WR, Penn State

Round 2 - Darnell Wright, RT, Tennessee

Round 3 - Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin

Round 4 - Byron Young, DL, Alabama

Round 5 - DeMarcco Hellams, S, Alabama

Round 5 - Jaxson Kirkland, OL, Washington 

In the 2021 regular season, the Bills finished dead last in yards-after-the-catch-per-reception in the NFL at 4.22 yards. The improvement in that key statistic was negligible. Buffalo moved from 32nd to 31st in YAC per grab with a 4.42 yard average. The four teams in the conference title games were second, third, fifth and 11th during the regular season. The Bills must get better in that regard in 2023, and Washington is the ideal, bigger-bodied YAC specialist for Buffalo to select in Round 1. He forced 15 missed tackles on just 42 receptions in his final collegiate season and averaged 6.3 YAC per reception. 

We're at the beginning stages of draft season, so pegging where prospects will land now is impossible, but it feels like Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be off the board when the Bills go on the clock at No. 28 overall. 

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SCBills Hall of Famer

SCBills

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Just now, gobills404 said:

Why didn’t he give the Bills a big name free agent or draft pick at every single position of need???

 

Don't need that, but am hoping for more creativity than "run it back and hope we nail the draft".

 

Don't really care for Edmunds being re-signed but also don't hate it.

 

Looking for McBeane to make some tough decisions on defensive personnel that are under contract with us and maybe shouldn't be next year..  Then using that money on Offense. 

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Big Turk Hall of Famer

Big Turk

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I highly doubt they are cutting Morse...the line already needs help enough without cutting one of the two players who played well for the most part. It's hard to fix something by creating an even bigger problem to fix.

 

I agree with the other 2 cuts. 

 

They could instantly fix their slot receiver problem by drafting Boston College WR Zay Flowers. Dude is Tyreek Hill lite...same build, same height, slightly slower(4.37), slightly less change of direction quickness but still just video game like...dude would be a threat to take the ball to the house any time he touched it. Could change everything for the Bills on offense and could force the nightmare scenario of choosing to cover the slot guy who can take anything to the house or leaving Davis one on one on the outside to go deep. That's not even factoring in Diggs who can do it all.

 

I don't know the FA signings at all really. I do know the Bills love signing promising young edge rushers that have showed good production in limited snaps but they don't usually amount to much.

 

I am good with both those Bills FA signings. Lawson was very good this year and plays a key role in run D.

 

Obviously G is a need. Not sure if Will Hernandez is much of an upgrade. Seems the Bills bring in budget players on the OLine every year and every year we have the same issue when they suck.

 

Would like to see 2nd round pick devoted to somewhere on the OLine.

 

 

14 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

FA moves seem Underwhelming…

 

If this is the reality of what to expect they are in trouble

 

They don't have a lot of money to work with, what are you expecting them to do? Go sign a $15 million guard? They have JA, they are never really in trouble while he's here.

Edited by Big Turk
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Big Blitz Hall of Famer

Big Blitz

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Morse will be back.  As he should.  
 

How many freaking holes we going to create

 

 

Until a replacement or clear WR2 can be found (maybe we have him Davis) that can replace Diggs as he enters his age 30 season - we need to operate like it has to happen this season.  
 

If we don’t get enough “dawgs” they will melt against more talented rosters like they did Sunday.  
 

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BuffaloBillsGospel2014 RFA

BuffaloBillsGospel2014

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So we're cutting our most reliable OL in Mitch Morse, replacing Saffold with a mediocre G, replacing Morse with a rookie C, and adding a rookie RT, so 2 rookies and a mediocre G is the plan to fix the OL? That's definitely not good enough. They are going to have to be creative unless they want another Andrew Luck situation in Buffalo with Allen.

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thenorthremembers Veteran

thenorthremembers

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Hate it.  He restructured one player when multiple restructures are available.  He took a 3rd round talent in the 1st round.  Wingard is a former Josh teammate at Wyoming but he isn't a starting Safety in the league, he's been predominantly a special teams player.   Okoronkwo is an undersized defensive end who is more likely an edge rusher in a 3-4 base defense.  

 

The off-season he is suggesting is full of guys who don't fit the schemes we run and shows no creativity in cap management.   The Bills will have the ability to pick up one major pickup in free agency if they are creative.   Terrible suggestions from a reporter who appears to know very little about football other then looking at holes and plugging them with guys who may be cheap.

 

Rather than restructure Dawkins he wants to cut Morse?   Stupid.   You get into real cap hell by cutting players ala Doug Whaley.

Edited by thenorthremembers
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Aussie Joe All Pro

Aussie Joe

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2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Not to go be reckless with tho. To go sign their own players and fill in around them.


We will see what happens but I think  they will make some bigger moves in FA than what is said here…. Signing Will Hernandez as your only OL move?
 

Beane is no dummy … They go backwards again in 2023 ( WC round exit or worse) he is probably gone ..

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gobills404 Veteran

gobills404

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17 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Don't need that, but am hoping for more creativity than "run it back and hope we nail the draft".

 

Don't really care for Edmunds being re-signed but also don't hate it.

 

Looking for McBeane to make some tough decisions on defensive personnel that are under contract with us and maybe shouldn't be next year..  Then using that money on Offense. 

How is releasing 3 starters and resigning 2 of our 20+ free agents “running it back”? The Bills would have at least 5 new starters in this scenario.

 

I don’t disagree about spending more money on the offense tho. I’d rather take that money spent on Edmunds and use it to go after Isaac Seumalo or Kaleb McGary.

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stlbills13 RFA

stlbills13

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That offseason would keep us afloat and maybe you get a few lucky breaks with health and good matchups in the playoffs. But you're going to have to be uncomfortably aggressive in some capacity if you want to take that next step.  I think our draft pick is the key to the offseason. I would actually be willing to trade up 10+ spots in the draft to try to secure a true offensive difference maker. If you aren't willing to do that, then I have our draft pick squarely on the trade block to bring in a proven difference maker. I almost feel like making a pick in our current 1st round draft slot is recipe for the least impactful offseason.

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billieve420 Veteran

billieve420

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Don't hate idea of cutting Morse as I think Bates can play Center and maybe better suited their versus playing guard. Didn't notice much if any drop off when he had to play for Morse in the past who has injury concerns. Morse is a big locker room guy and Josh loves him so unless he retires don't see it happening though. Upgrade both guard positions and bring in tackle to compete with Brown with long term goal to replace Dawkins on the left side.

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wppete All Pro

wppete

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1 hour ago, harmonkillebrew said:

 

Not bad. thoughts?

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2023-nfl-playoffs-picks-eagles-top-49ers-in-nfc-title-game-thriller-bengals-beat-chiefs-in-afc-championship/

 

Releases (cap savings):  

WR Isaiah McKenzie ($2.6M)

S Siran Neal ($2.2M)

C Mitch Morse ($5.1M)

The Morse release wouldn't be a move the Bills would be happy making, but given he suffered another concussion this season and the fact he's turning 31 in April, it would hardly come as a shock. Morse was a low-key vital piece to Allen's maturation, and even took a pay cut to stay with the team previously. These are the type of difficult decisions teams have to make when there's a huge quarterback contract on the books. Morse retiring wouldn't be surprising either. 

McKenzie's hyped summer never materialized into a breakout, and at this juncture, even his $2.5M cap hit in 2023 is not an worthy expenditure for the Bills. 

Neal has been a quality special teamer. As a defender, he's never found his footing in any one role. 

 

Restructures

QB Josh Allen

This restructure was essentially bound to happen after Allen signed his well-deserved, monster extension in the summer of 2021. The simple restructuring of the soon-to-be 27-year-old's contract will create $21.5 million in cap space, bringing Buffalo's total to around $27 million. Around $10 million needs to be saved for the 2023 draft class and low-level re-signings.

 

Notable re-signings (2022 cap hit)

LB Tremaine Edmunds ($12.7M)

EDGE Shaq Lawson ($1.1M)

Edmunds has matured into a key, unique cog in the middle of Buffalo's defense at 6-feet-4 and 250-plus pounds with tremendous range, high-end coverage ability, and recently shored up tackling reliability. He'll only be 25 in May, so Buffalo can push the large cap hit chunks of Edmunds extension well into the future. His 2023 cap hit could be as low as $3M or $4M. 

Lawson wasn't a game-changer in his second stint with the Bills. He did flash at times as a rusher and maintained his status as a quality outside run-stopper. He'd likely cost less around $1M on a one-year deal. At this stage, the Bills would have roughly $12 million in 2023 cap to spend in free agency. 

 

 

Notable free-agent signings (projected 2023 cap hit)

S Andrew Wingard ($3M) 

G Will Hernandez ($2M)

WR Greg Dortch ($3M)

EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo ($3M)

 

Wingard was a full-time safety in 2021 in Jacksonville and emerged as a solid all-around player. In 2022, he was relegated to a reserve/backup role, seeing only 223 snaps. A truly versatile playmaker, Wingard is big and aggressive enough to make plays near the line but was a ballhawk in college as a free safety, when he was teammates with Allen at Wyoming. He feels like the type of lower-priced free agent with upside the Bills would love to develop in a starter role. 

Hernandez was an early second-round pick in the 2018 draft and while he mostly underwhelmed with the Giants, he turned in a quality 2022 in a prove-it situation with the Cardinals. With Arizona likely undergoing a rebuild of some sort, Hernandez is unlikely to be re-signed and would be a strong, wide-bodied instant starter at left guard for the Bills in 2023. 

Dortch is a young, former undrafted free agent who, when finally given an opportunity in 2022, showcased his dynamic abilities from the slot position. He forced a whopping 13 missed tackles on 52 receptions and did not have a drop all year. The Bills have promise at inside receiver with 2022 fifth-round pick Khalil Shakir, and Dortch would provide legitimate, veteran competition there. 

 

Okoronkwo went in the fifth round of the 2018 draft, and after largely being buried on the Rams depth chart at the beginning stage of his career, he signed a one-year deal with the Texans and was a pass-rushing success in Houston this past season with 36 pressures on 268 pass-rushing snaps (13.4% pressure rate), both of which were career highs. He's the smaller, bendy type rusher the Bills need to add to the outside pass rush group beyond Von Miller. 

 

Draft (mock selections)   

Round 1 - Parker Washington, WR, Penn State

Round 2 - Darnell Wright, RT, Tennessee

Round 3 - Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin

Round 4 - Byron Young, DL, Alabama

Round 5 - DeMarcco Hellams, S, Alabama

Round 5 - Jaxson Kirkland, OL, Washington 

In the 2021 regular season, the Bills finished dead last in yards-after-the-catch-per-reception in the NFL at 4.22 yards. The improvement in that key statistic was negligible. Buffalo moved from 32nd to 31st in YAC per grab with a 4.42 yard average. The four teams in the conference title games were second, third, fifth and 11th during the regular season. The Bills must get better in that regard in 2023, and Washington is the ideal, bigger-bodied YAC specialist for Buffalo to select in Round 1. He forced 15 missed tackles on just 42 receptions in his final collegiate season and averaged 6.3 YAC per reception. 

We're at the beginning stages of draft season, so pegging where prospects will land now is impossible, but it feels like Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be off the board when the Bills go on the clock at No. 28 overall. 


I’d be very disappointed if this happened. This would makes us a worse team overall and not improve us. 

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MAJBobby Hall of Famer

MAJBobby

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Hate it. One Morse Money savings is wrong unless Chris is allowing the guarantee trigger to happen then releasing him (DUMB). 
 

then you go and use that money savings to continue to sign patch work OL and DEFENSE YET AGAIN. 

58 minutes ago, Bandito said:

Just  as I have predicted. We will be worse next year. The window is almost closed for us. Look at Tennesee. From AFC Title game to missing the playoffs and a practical rebuild two years later

Who was there QB again? 

43 minutes ago, wppete said:


I’d be very disappointed if this happened. This would makes us a worse team overall and not improve us. 

This 💯 ☝️


It is because of these things Chris does on why he blocked me. Hates being called out on crap ideas. 

Edited by MAJBobby
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mabden RFA

mabden

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40 Yard Times:

 

Jaylen Hall, WR, Western Kentucky, 4.32 sec.

Derius Davis, WR, TCU, 4.29 sec.

 

Parker Washington, WR, Penn State, 4.49 sec.

 

I am all for drafting a WR in the 1st round, but he better have some speed.

 

I would resign Edmund over Oliver.

 

1 hour ago, Bandito said:

Just  as I have predicted. We will be worse next year. The window is almost closed for us. Look at Tennesee. From AFC Title game to missing the playoffs and a practical rebuild two years later

 

The Titans have Tannehill for a QB.  His window is closing fast, if it was ever open at all.

 

Josh's window is as long as he is able to stand upright.

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KOKBILLS All Pro

KOKBILLS

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2 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:

We're at the beginning stages of draft season, so pegging where prospects will land now is impossible, but it feels like Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be off the board when the Bills go on the clock at No. 28 overall. 

 

If this happened and the Bills took Parker Washington over Jalin Hyatt, I would NOT be a happy camper...Not saying Washington can't move up some, and I like him...But I've yet to consider Washington as more than a Day 2 prospect...And IMHO, Hyatt is a perfect match for what the Bills need...Plus he looks to be as fast as lightning...B-)

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BarleyNY All Pro

BarleyNY

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3 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

So we're cutting our most reliable OL in Mitch Morse, replacing Saffold with a mediocre G, replacing Morse with a rookie C, and adding a rookie RT, so 2 rookies and a mediocre G is the plan to fix the OL? That's definitely not good enough. They are going to have to be creative unless they want another Andrew Luck situation in Buffalo with Allen.

Thank goodness that you can depend on draft picks always working out well or that revamped OL might be in real trouble. 

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