We're on to Cincinnati(Bengals coming to OP). Sunday 1/22 at 3pm. Opening Line Bills -5

[Dr. Who]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

That's the "party line", but I'm not sure it's correct.  Part of that is because of Allen's known tendencies, teams know they can choke down on the guys who are past the sticks and pay a cursory nod to the shallow guys.

 

For example, on the play where Josh threw to Beasley who was closely covered by 1 defender and had 2 others in the vicinity - on the opposite side of the field, Dawson Knox ran a route that effectively picked the defender off Diggs and left him totally open for a while before the defender who had him closed the gap.  Romo even commented during the broadcast that Allen has Diggs wide open on the opposite side of the field.

 

On the deep INT to Brown, I believe he was the only receiver on the field as the Bills put a heavy set on the field against what Miami showed as a cover 0 blitz.  But then when they dropped, the Bills two TE and Gilliam broke out into routes.  There were crossers at two levels by Morris and Knox, who was drawing the attention and leaving Morris wide open with a passing lane to him, as well as  Gilliam running up the sideline and carrying 2 defenders with him. 

 

People here are "oh, Dorsey should give Allen checkdowns" "Dorsey should scheme guys open", usually when Allen throws a pick, there is an alternative open, Allen just doesn't choose to take it.

I think this is correct. Josh is smart. He needs to realize how much more dangerous and effective the offense would be if he took even 30% of those checkdowns. The opposing D would not be able to discard the underneath routes and key on the long ball.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I didn't like that McDermott press conference. 

 

Still trying to get to know Kaiir.

 

How about getting playmakers on the field coach? 

 

He's had 2-3 interceptions in limited work. 

 

Last week there wasn't going to be a rotation until Dane got hurt and they had no choice. Frazier said this. 

 

And always this "fine line" stuff with Josh, egged on by our media about avoiding turnovers. Its your job Bills FO to get him better talent. Allen is an A, playing with an offense assembled from spare parts and mid-round draft picks. 
 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Nextmanup]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

I think this is correct. Josh is smart. He needs to realize how much more dangerous and effective the offense would be if he took even 30% of those checkdowns. The opposing D would not be able to discard the underneath routes and key on the long ball.

If what you write here is correct, that's entirely on coaching.  It's their job to make Josh the best he can be and to wipe out bad habits.

I still can't believe they haven't impressed on him the importance of holding onto the ball correctly when he runs.

 

He holds it "loaf of break" style in one hand, then waves his huge arm all around....3 o'clock, noon, 9 o'clock, back to 3'clock.  Now wonder he has been a fumble machine this year.

 

 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

I have a healthy "ignore" file now.  Neat, sweet, can't be beat.  Preserves me from the temptation to respond to a troll  (or a poster who is not a troll but psychologically unable to acknowledge a valid counterpoint). 

 

Greatly improves the board experience, 4 of 4 stars, highly recommend. 

I kind of felt ethically compelled not to censor folks since I don't like it when I am erased for various reasons, but I take your point and free speech really should only apply to ideas and not intentional black magic.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Dr. Who

[HopelessNJBuffaloFan]

3 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

So hedging your bets here? 

 

If the Bills win, well Dorsey isn't horrible. Bills lose, see told you. - People do that? I am saying he is OK, but is he? How many times you see things work, then they never ever go back to it. 

 

Josh is not the same Josh, can you explain this? Or is this just based on some interceptions from Green Bay and the Jets and last week being aggressive in Miami.  Yes, have you noticed his swagger and his confidence has totally changed. Maybe the injury? He used to get pumped up and wild and now he is very mild mannered even when he scores. Look at the 4 first games, and look at him now.... big difference.

 

 

Are you thinking the Bengals have just been held down 2-weeks in a row by a divisional opponent? I think the Balt defense plays very well against Cinci, Like Miami to us.

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 minutes ago, BeavercreekBillsFan said:

I can’t stress enough how different Baltimores defense is from ours and how much better suited to defend Cincinnati they are. It’s not the same. They can rush burrow with 4. They have Marcus Peter’s and Marlon Humphrey to cover Chase and Higgins and Hamilton in thr slot too for coverage. Not to mention Roquan smith in the middle. Remember this when chase is getting open constantly and Higgins is finding soft spots in Fraziers zones. 
 

I do think we will give the bengals D some problems but fundamentally this is a bad matchup. 

Sounds like you need to become a Bengals fan. 

 

Every time you post its some warning about how unstoppable that team is. 

 

They're capable, no doubt. But they don't lead the league in points scored or points allowed. 

 

You talk about them like they are the 1989 49ers. 

[boyst]

39 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I dunno where the Burrows lack of respect comes from, but it should be noted that while he's not a major contributor to the Bengals running game, he's far from a statue.

 

He has 5 rushing TDs this year

 

He mostly runs to extend plays, but just when the D mistakes him for a guy who takes the LOS for the Berlin wall, he will scamper across it for a first down.  I can't quickly turn up the data on 1Ds, but his 5 runs vs. KC in the AFCCG last year contributed to their win and his willingness to run contributed to their W against KC this year as well.

 

The Bills have to contain him on 3D if they can't get him down.

This type of matchup will be situation based. I trust our dynamic hats to the ball defense on 3rd and long to make up for distance of down.

 

Idont mean to disrespect burrow. I think those 3 WRs on any team would do wonders for a QB. So I view him with weight and know he is the leader of that team

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 minutes ago, BeavercreekBillsFan said:

These are all valid points. I took the bengals -5 based upon this also. I don’t view the bengals banged up o line as a huge advantage for us without Von. Both the stats and my eyes tell me we can’t get after the qb with much consistency anymore so adding that to the fact that burrow has time to hit his trio of great receivers against our overmatched DBs, and it’s a recipe for a long night. 
 

I’m way more confident in the 49ers -4 though. That line is an absolute joke and just free money. Niners are going to roll. 

People that are betting money on football should do a little more digging into offensive schemes / offensive lines lol 

 

bengals like to run empty sets/ 11 personnel.

Miami runs a lot of heavier sets.

 

Treating the cincy injured oline and dolphins injured oline as an apples to apples comparison is a huge mistake.   You’re only getting cincy +5 because good one on one pass blocking is so important to what they do and they really don’t have the talent right now. 

[Dr. Who]

Just now, Nextmanup said:

If what you write here is correct, that's entirely on coaching.  It's their job to make Josh the best he can be and to wipe out bad habits.

I still can't believe they haven't impressed on him the importance of holding onto the ball correctly when he runs.

 

He holds it "loaf of break" style in one hand, then waves his huge arm all around....3 o'clock, noon, 9 o'clock, back to 3'clock.  Now wonder he has been a fumble machine this year.

 

 

There might be something to the notion that Daboll could be a father figure and Dorsey is more a big brother that Josh is less inclined to take criticism from. I dunno, but someone needs to get Josh clear on this. It seemed to me last year's playoffs he was much more open to taking the underneath routes.

[Drew21PA]

5 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

I think some people here have watched every second of every Bills game, but have only watched highlights of the Bengals. People are talking about the Bengals like they are the 2007 Pats.

YES!  Exactly!  like this unstoppable force!

Its really odd to me?  But the media is hyping Burrow - which is fine - hes really good i get that, but youre right - its like this unstoppable force and - for the life of me - i cant get why Cinci fans are so cocky and conifdent even with their winning "streak" weird to me...

 

 

[Bigvinny]

Decent breakdown of Josh taking the check down . One play Singletary has nobody around him for 15 yards and instead they throw deep to Davis. "Take the cheese"

 

https://youtu.be/lJLGVQwfjIs

Edited January 18, 2023 by Bigvinny

[Beck Water]

2 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

YES. 

 

This was WGRs rallying cry for weeks, until Kurt Warner showed that there are plenty of checkdowns available in this offense. 

 

Kurt Warner also explained that Dorsey isn't in left field with some of these play designs. He runs things common to an NFL offense like mesh, or high-low combinations. 

 

Now we're back to we don't checkdown enough. 

 

Part of it is our OL. 

 

The Bills O kind of lives in 11 personnel - not to the same extent the D lives in nickel, but it's something like 72% (anyone got stats, especially individual game stats, please Bring 'Em). 

 

This season, Singletary and Knox have been kept in to block - a lot- while 2 or 3 of the WR run deep or deep intermediate routes.  McKenzie is often an immediate checkdown option in the flat, sometimes he runs a deep crosser where he's a threat because of his speed.  Knox (more often) and Singletary (less often) chip then release onto a route, but it's of necessity a shallow route.  That workflow limits the route trees those latter 2 can run.

 

IMHO the #1 thing the Bills could do in the off season is invest significant resources in improving the OL.  If we could actually block 4 DL or 4 DL and a LB with hat-on-hat, and use Knox in routes which he showed last season he has the skill set to run, that would help a great deal.  Morris, IMHO, is also underutilized as a receiver where I've been impressed at times when I've seen him.  That release on the route where he scored the TD was Sick.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Just now, Bigvinny said:

Decent breakdown of Josh taking the check down. One play Singletary has nobody around him for 15 yards and they throw deep to Davis.

 

https://youtu.be/lJLGVQwfjIs

And our fans and media will immediately start crying when this becomes a checkdown ball control offense. 

 

Basically, our media just wants it to work. They point out obvious stuff and want a ton of claps on the back as they ask McDermott about dialing everything back to avoid mistakes. 

 

But sure, go out there Sunday and see if you can out checkdown the Bengals to victory. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, BeavercreekBillsFan said:

I can’t stress enough how different Baltimores defense is from ours and how much better suited to defend Cincinnati they are. It’s not the same. They can rush burrow with 4. They have Marcus Peter’s and Marlon Humphrey to cover Chase and Higgins and Hamilton in thr slot too for coverage. Not to mention Roquan smith in the middle. Remember this when chase is getting open constantly and Higgins is finding soft spots in Fraziers zones. 
 

I do think we will give the bengals D some problems but fundamentally this is a bad matchup. 

I can’t stress enough how much better the bills offense is than the ravens offense led by Tyler Huntley.  Bills defense will make enough plays with cincys oline banged up…they certainly won’t hold them scoreless like baltimore did in the second half but they don’t need to.  it’s a great matchup. If you bet cincy +5 I think you got it wrong but that’s just my opinion.  
 

a team that can run the ball at will with a tough secondary is who would worry me…someone like philly or sf or the jets if they ever find a qb 😂
 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Big Turk]

16 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

It's a valid criticism.  We are hilariously bad at screens.  I just do not care.. it's one of the more random things to worry about. 

 

except WR Screens...those usually work pretty well. "Gold Rip/Whip" audible. Beasley scored on a version of a WR screen last game

Edited January 18, 2023 by Big Turk

[Punch]

8 minutes ago, Drew21PA said:

YES!  Exactly!  like this unstoppable force!

Its really odd to me?  But the media is hyping Burrow - which is fine - hes really good i get that, but youre right - its like this unstoppable force and - for the life of me - i cant get why Cinci fans are so cocky and conifdent even with their winning "streak" weird to me...

 

 

The Bengals were a joke from 1991 until recently. Even the Marvin Lewis years were generally underwhelming. Now, they're the defending AFC Champs and the Steelers are in a rare downturn so their goldfish memories have kicked in.

[Scott7975]

21 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

YES. 

 

This was WGRs rallying cry for weeks, until Kurt Warner showed that there are plenty of checkdowns available in this offense. 

 

Kurt Warner also explained that Dorsey isn't in left field with some of these play designs. He runs things common to an NFL offense like mesh, or high-low combinations. 

 

Now we're back to we don't checkdown enough. 

 

The thing I dont like is there are a lot of times where two receivers end up close to the same spot. That makes it easier on a defense.  What I dont know is that on Dorsey or are our receivers running the wrong route?

[SCBills]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35427940/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-rise-career-journey

[PaattMaann]

2 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The thing I dont like is there are a lot of times where two receivers end up close to the same spot. That makes it easier on a defense.  What I dont know is that on Dorsey or are our receivers running the wrong route?

 

This has been discussed a lot on some podcasts I listen to, and based on what we know of the offense, the WR's have a TON of discretion in the routes they run and where they end up based on the defense alignment pre snap (WRs have mentioned that this offense is unlike anything they have ever played in before). This likely leads to them being around each other a lot more. Sometimes they are reading similar open spots and both end up there via different path ways, and sometimes one guy might read the D wrong and takes his route to an incorrect place which might lead to them being in the same spot. It is a downside of the offensive design, as well as execution. 

 

Same token, its very difficult to defend because there aren't as many tendencies for defenses to pick up on. 

[julian]

39 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

I think some people here have watched every second of every Bills game, but have only watched highlights of the Bengals. People are talking about the Bengals like they are the 2007 Pats.

This is correct, overly critical of the team in which you watch every snap and fear every team on the schedule they’ve not watched so closely.

 

 It’s lame.

[ColoradoBills]

36 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I kind of felt ethically compelled not to censor folks since I don't like it when I am erased for various reasons, but I take your point and free speech really should only apply to ideas and not intentional black magic.

 

I'm totally different.  When I click on this site it's like I'm inviting people into my house.  I expect them to act accordingly.

I have no problem telling some that they have to leave.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

https://www.nflgamesim.com/nfl-game-simulator.asp

 

Just played Bills/Bengals matchup 10 times. Bills won 60% of time and by AMV 26.1-18.6 (7.5). Try for yourself.

[PaattMaann]

1 minute ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

https://www.nflgamesim.com/nfl-game-simulator.asp

 

Just played Bills/Bengals matchup 10 times. Bills won 60% of time and by AMV 26.1-18.6 (7.5). Try for yourself.

 

Thats what I put our odds at, 60/40...so makes sense in my mind. ESPN matchup predictor shows Bills at 65%

[mannc]

On 1/16/2023 at 5:20 PM, Protocal69 said:

Its already be said that Hyde is NOT playing until at least the AFCCG. Catch up

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/bills-micah-hyde-out-vs-dolphins-veteran-safety-would-also-be-out-for-divisional-round-if-team-advances/#:~:text=The neck injury that sidelined,his 21-day practice window.

 

The neck injury that sidelined Hyde back in September was initially expected to keep him out until next season, but the Bills recently designated for him to return from injured reserve and opened his 21-day practice window. However, it appears the Bills will have to make it at least as far as the AFC title game before he is able to get back on the field. 

Whatever you say…

[teef]

2 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

https://www.nflgamesim.com/nfl-game-simulator.asp

 

Just played Bills/Bengals matchup 10 times. Bills won 60% of time and by AMV 26.1-18.6 (7.5). Try for yourself.

also 6 out of 10 wins.

[Beck Water]

49 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

If what you write here is correct, that's entirely on coaching.  It's their job to make Josh the best he can be and to wipe out bad habits.

I still can't believe they haven't impressed on him the importance of holding onto the ball correctly when he runs.

 

He holds it "loaf of break" style in one hand, then waves his huge arm all around....3 o'clock, noon, 9 o'clock, back to 3'clock.  Now wonder he has been a fumble machine this year.

 

On the fumble machine thing, I put up data on this partly through the season where I characterized each fumble as QB/C exchange, strip sack, or fumble while running.  At that time, the majority of Josh's fumbles were on QB-C exchange or strip sacks.  So unless you have data that differs for the last 3-4 games, your characterization of Josh as a "fumble machine" when he runs has been wrong to date.  That said, I don't like the way Josh holds the ball when he runs, either.

 

TL;DR for what follows: the problem with an immensely physically talented QB like Josh who can actually make all these plays, is that you can't just get in his grill and yell "stop doing this, always do that instead" without limiting or removing his special play ability.  Instead, it's about refining and molding his decision making, and that's much harder and takes more time.

 

Kurt Warner did an interesting interview with Brown and Tasker where he talked about how as a QB, he had no option but to learn to read the D and make correct, fast decisions because he simply couldn't make the special, Unicorn plays Josh makes.  He  points out that as a HOF QB, he threw a lot of turnovers and that if you're an aggressive QB who pushes the ball down the field, he believes you will make more good plays than bad so turnovers don't bother him so much.  That said, he talks about how he thinks it's hard to for a QB to live in a place where he has to make 15-20 special plays per game and that to be successful against the best defenses in the playoffs, a successful playoff QB has to be able to see and take the layups and maybe make 4-5 special plays per game.  He says he believes the offense in Buffalo is a good solid system (that would support Josh playing "in system" more).  He talks about how he'd like to see Josh play more in system in the red zone and not feel that he needs to run around and create so much.  He acknowledges that he was NOT one of the guys who can do all the special stuff that Josh can do, so he doesn't fully understand that mindset, but he says that one reason Mahomes and Allen are so special is that they CAN do both things well (play in system as well as create outside the system) and acknowledges that it must be a hard thing to balance out when you're used to making so many big plays.   I know some here don't like Kurt Warner's QB Confidential pieces on Josh but I think it's a fascinating listen.

 

My impression is that Daboll had no fear of lighting into Josh and setting him straight on anything.  They had a relationship built from the ground up, when Josh was coming into the league and depending upon his coaches to help him develop.  Daboll had the carrots, and Daboll had the sticks.

 

Now Josh is an established star, and he basically spoke up for Dorsey and got him the job so Dorsey is, to some extent, dependent upon Josh's good will.  We can kind of see that Dorsey is "low man on the (coaching) totum pole in that McDermott stuck him with John Butler, the DB coach, as his "Passing Game Coordinator" and Joe Brady as his QB coach then Mike Shula as "Senior Offensive Assistant".   Joe Brady is a great X's and O's guy, but outside of the backup QB Josh no longer has a real QB coach on the sideline with him who can coach QB vision or technique if something is getting away from him.  And while Daboll was unquestionably "running the show" by his 3rd year, I think Dorsey is running "Offense by Committee" and feeling his way.

 

Bottom line, I think the offense lacks a "single voice" and possibly lacks someone who feels like they have the clout to set Josh straight.  And I hope that's a problem they solve in the off-season because we have Russ Wilson as the shining example of what happens when an undoubted QB talent grows beyond being coachable.

 

I do think that Dorsey is overall feeling his way successfully.  Josh has said things in interviews about realizing that the QB has to be an extension of the OC on the field and see things the same way or it doesn't work, and that it took some doing but they're getting to a good place now (this was weeks ago, around the Thurs. nite games).

Edited January 18, 2023 by Beck Water

[Scott7975]

33 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

This has been discussed a lot on some podcasts I listen to, and based on what we know of the offense, the WR's have a TON of discretion in the routes they run and where they end up based on the defense alignment pre snap (WRs have mentioned that this offense is unlike anything they have ever played in before). This likely leads to them being around each other a lot more. Sometimes they are reading similar open spots and both end up there via different path ways, and sometimes one guy might read the D wrong and takes his route to an incorrect place which might lead to them being in the same spot. It is a downside of the offensive design, as well as execution. 

 

Same token, its very difficult to defend because there aren't as many tendencies for defenses to pick up on. 

 

I would guess that also means its tougher on the QB/WR because they have to read the play the same exact way everytime or those miscommunications and ints can happen.  Those "where the F was he throwing to" can also happen.

[hondo in seattle]

32 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

https://www.nflgamesim.com/nfl-game-simulator.asp

 

Just played Bills/Bengals matchup 10 times. Bills won 60% of time and by AMV 26.1-18.6 (7.5). Try for yourself.

 

Bills win 49 to 30 in my last sim.  Allen accounts for almost 500 yards: 367 passing, 129 rushing.  

 

I like it.  

[reddogblitz]

10 hours ago, BillnutinHouston said:

 

Hmm...how to explain the mid-roll acceleration?

 

And why did he kick Wonder Boy in the coconuts?

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, HopelessNJBuffaloFan said:

So, i think i am somewhere in the middle where folks are on this board. I think the Bills can win this game, but we have all seen they try to hard to not win games in the last few weeks. Some points IMHO:

 

- Even with Cin offensive line hurt, wont matter. Dolphins were worse and the only way we got to him was to blitz.

- Josh is not the same Josh that started the season. Hurt? Head crap? Definitely not the same.

- Dorsey still does not impress me. (Yes i know, points and the rest yea yea) He moves away from things that work and forces stupid forced plays to work. (Not saying he is horrible)

- Our defensive backfield gets slashed pretty easy with the worst QB's.... Burrow is not one of them and they have incredible receivers! 

- Have you ever seen a team that sucks so bad on screens?? They are an embarrassment at it.

 

I know i am being Debby downer, but Bill's play of late does not give me warm and fuzzys. Either way hoping for a win, but wont be surprised if they lose. Take Bengals and the points!

I already took the 4.5 points and Cinci. That's just way too many points in a game like this. 

[Magox]

The Bills are the better team, why?   Josh Allen.

 

Josh Allen's B game is better than most high end QB's A game, maybe not stat wise but in terms of converting critical plays.  He makes throws and extends drives on third down that other QB's simply can't do on a consistent basis.  It's crazy to hear some Bills fans criticize his play, it's nuts.  

 

If the Bills play their A game they beat any team in the league, period!   If they play their normal run-of-the mill B game which they've played lots of B and C games its still good enough to beat 90% of the teams in the league.   

 

What separates Josh from the other QB's in this league aside from his arm and ability to run the ball is his sheer will to put the game on his shoulders when its on the line and will the team to victory. 

 

I think we'll win and my hopes are that the Bills begin kicking it into another drive from here on out.  They showed signs of it last game but between the unforced errors on the drops, fumble for TD, miscommunication on int's it led to an uncomfortably close victory.  Scrap out a few mistakes and the Bills win that game by 30.    

[reddogblitz]

6 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

You can rely on getting there with 4. McDermott needs to take the headset from Fraizer and dial up pressure. Leslie Is never going to do it. He will keep running the same thing over and over regardless praying Burrow gets bored and makes bad throws. That’s not going to happen. We need to sent heat all game because we won’t get there with 4.

 

Looked to me like we did a lot of blitzing against the Fish.

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Process said:

 

 

Chris Simms is an Allen Homer and his "take" all season has been that the Bills offense is too dependent on Josh Allen to create plays in the passing game and to generate running offense.  It follows he must believe that the Bills aren't running a capable offensive system that would support Josh playing within it. (they waffle a bit, but Erik Turner of Cover1 has expressed that same viewpoint at times)

 

I find it interesting to compare and contrast his view with that of Kurt Warner, whose OBL interview a few weeks ago I summarized in a different post up thread (recommend giving it a listen) who explicitly states that he believes the Bills have a "good system with a lot of good solid concepts" (~7:45 in), and who basically seems to believe that Josh is feeling the need to play outside the system and create offense, when he could let the defense dictate where he goes with the ball and let the offense work for him. 

 

I will say that in general, when Josh has gone to the other weapons on the system, like Knox, McKenzie, Morris, Gilliam, Cook, Singletary - they have made those plays for him.  Gilliam, Knox, Singletary, and Morris are all rocking catch % >70% and McKenzie and Cook are right around 65%.  Shakir is still a "work in progress", but hopefully he's turning the corner with 3 receptions on 5 targets (though, c'mon man! on that drop)

 

Anyway, so, there are different viewpoints on the Bills offense out there from pundits.  I tend to believe Kurt Warner has forgotten more Ball than Chris Simms and Erik Turner will ever know, so I'd go with his assessment (also, because when I look at film where Josh has thrown picks, I usually see alternatives)  but, YMMV.

 

Oh, one other thing - the Bills run game has improved, independent of Josh Allen, the last 8 games.

1st 8 weeks: 124 rush ypg, Allen 49 rush ypg: 75 rush ypg other than Josh

most recent 8 weeks: 146 rush ypg, Allen 38 rush YPG: 108 rush YPG other than Josh.  It's not up to "league average" but, league average includes significant rush yard contributions from about 6 QB, enough to influence the average I think.

 

[newcam2012]

37 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

On the fumble machine thing, I put up data on this partly through the season where I characterized each fumble as QB/C exchange, strip sack, or fumble while running.  At that time, the majority of Josh's fumbles were on QB-C exchange or strip sacks.  So unless you have data that differs for the last 3-4 games, your characterization of Josh as a "fumble machine" when he runs has been wrong to date.  That said, I don't like the way Josh holds the ball when he runs, either.

 

TL;DR for what follows: the problem with an immensely physically talented QB like Josh who can actually make all these plays, is that you can't just get in his grill and yell "stop doing this, always do that instead" without limiting or removing his special play ability.  Instead, it's about refining and molding his decision making, and that's much harder and takes more time.

 

Kurt Warner did an interesting interview with Brown and Tasker where he talked about how as a QB, he had no option but to learn to read the D and make correct, fast decisions because he simply couldn't make the special, Unicorn plays Josh makes.  He  points out that as a HOF QB, he threw a lot of turnovers and that if you're an aggressive QB who pushes the ball down the field, he believes you will make more good plays than bad so turnovers don't bother him so much.  That said, he talks about how he thinks it's hard to for a QB to live in a place where he has to make 15-20 special plays per game and that to be successful against the best defenses in the playoffs, a successful playoff QB has to be able to see and take the layups and maybe make 4-5 special plays per game.  He says he believes the offense in Buffalo is a good solid system (that would support Josh playing "in system" more).  He talks about how he'd like to see Josh play more in system in the red zone and not feel that he needs to run around and create so much.  He acknowledges that he was NOT one of the guys who can do all the special stuff that Josh can do, so he doesn't fully understand that mindset, but he says that one reason Mahomes and Allen are so special is that they CAN do both things well (play in system as well as create outside the system) and acknowledges that it must be a hard thing to balance out when you're used to making so many big plays.   I know some here don't like Kurt Warner's QB Confidential pieces on Josh but I think it's a fascinating listen.

 

My impression is that Daboll had no fear of lighting into Josh and setting him straight on anything.  They had a relationship built from the ground up, when Josh was coming into the league and depending upon his coaches to help him develop.  Daboll had the carrots, and Daboll had the sticks.

 

Now Josh is an established star, and he basically spoke up for Dorsey and got him the job so Dorsey is, to some extent, dependent upon Josh's good will.  We can kind of see that Dorsey is "low man on the (coaching) totum pole in that McDermott stuck him with John Butler, the DB coach, as his "Passing Game Coordinator" and Joe Brady as his QB coach then Mike Shula as "Senior Offensive Assistant".   Joe Brady is a great X's and O's guy, but outside of the backup QB Josh no longer has a real QB coach on the sideline with him who can coach QB vision or technique if something is getting away from him.  And while Daboll was unquestionably "running the show" by his 3rd year, I think Dorsey is running "Offense by Committee" and feeling his way.

 

Bottom line, I think the offense lacks a "single voice" and possibly lacks someone who feels like they have the clout to set Josh straight.  And I hope that's a problem they solve in the off-season because we have Russ Wilson as the shining example of what happens when an undoubted QB talent grows beyond being coachable.

 

I do think that Dorsey is overall feeling his way successfully.  Josh has said things in interviews about realizing that the QB has to be an extension of the OC on the field and see things the same way or it doesn't work, and that it took some doing but they're getting to a good place now (this was weeks ago, around the Thurs. nite games).

What really strikes me as funny is how much live Daboll is getting. I can clearly remember year after year people here criticizing Daball. Going as far as saying he should be fired. The criticism wasn't a one off either. Fast forward to Daboll's success as a head coach. Now Daboll is some sort of legend in Buffalo. 

[extrahammer]

Just three more wins and we get a Super Bowl trophy. 

[jsh1031]

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by jsh1031

[CorkScrewHill]

injury report .. overall looking good .. hopefully it will remain so ...

 

 

 

[Scott7975]

Hopefully we get Phillips back this week.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

19 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I already took the 4.5 points and Cinci. That's just way too many points in a game like this. 

I really don’t think that’s true…bills are at home and the bengals losing 3 olinemen really mitigates the bills’ biggest issue.  

 

It’s also up to 5.5 now so you should’ve waited 😂  I could see it going over 6 when those guys are ruled officially out 
 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Process]

5 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I really don’t think that’s true…bills are at home and the bengals losing 3 olinemen really mitigates the bills’ biggest issue.  

 

It’s also up to 5.5 now so you should’ve waited 😂  I could see it going over 6 when those guys are ruled officially out 
 

 

He hasn't bet sh*t lol