Week 15: Dolphins at Bills on Saturday Night Football

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Patrick Duffy]

13 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well, that was kind of the point of my original post.  He's supposed to be a very smart guy and he was on our practice squad being prepared to be called up for injury, so he likely knows the defensive play calls (also carryover from last year, when he started).  And he was on the scout team, so he would have had the opportunity to pick up the offensive play calls.

 

So yes, I think he probably does know quite a lot.

 

I mean how smart he is doesn't make much difference imo,  Surely you know play calls change every game.. LoL would be really stupid to keep using same play calls all the time when opponents view every piece of film available preparing.

 

I don't think he knows very much more at all than the coaches do and certainly not anything that should draw concern. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

A true warrior.  Give me a friggin' break.  Every time this clown opens his mouth, I like him less.

[smuvtalker]

11 hours ago, SoMAn said:

Can’t hate them for that. Without hands their choices are limited unless there’s a blowfish nearby who needs the money. 

Hilarious!!  🤣

[Warcodered]

7 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

The weather is only real if you believe in it.

[DapperCam]

11 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

Haha, what a dumb approach. I hope that is true!

[FLFan]

8 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

A true warrior.  Give me a friggin' break.  Every time this clown opens his mouth, I like him less.

Clown he is.  Doogie Howser, Head Coach.  (He also reminds me of Howdy Doody, but that may be way to old school for most people here.) 

Edited December 14, 2022 by FLFan

[Greg S]

10 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

Armstead and Wilson are playing. We are in trouble now. I am scared. Dolphins 35 Bills 0.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Big Turk]

55 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

It's a bit of an advantage when the other team might know all your offensive and defensive playcalls, wouldn't you think?

 

This is way overrated.  Rarely does it play out as a huge advantage. Teams bring players in a LOT.  Most times it doesn't even register as a blip during the game. There are very few Lawyer Milloy games. All of that stuff is on film for people to see and study to begin with, it's not like they are giving them any real intel over what they can already see on film and what they know from playing them in division many times.

Edited December 14, 2022 by Big Turk

[Beck Water]

14 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

I mean how smart he is doesn't make much difference imo,  Surely you know play calls change every game.. LoL would be really stupid to keep using same play calls all the time when opponents view every piece of film available preparing.

 

I don't think he knows very much more at all than the coaches do and certainly not anything that should draw concern. 

 

Actually, no, I surely didn't know that play calls change every game.

 

I know that at one point, I think in 2019, Daboll was experimenting with 1 word play calls so the Bills could go no-huddle but change the plays easily at the line.  Those 1 word play calls changed every week.  The players were talking about how much work it was to memorize which words were representative of which play calls.  And of course if they forgot, confusion resulted.  It didn't last very long.

 

Erhardt Perkins offenses can have relatively simple playcalls like "F-left 72 Ghost/Tosser" (F-left is the formation, 72 is the protection, Ghost/Tosser identifies the routes), but Josh Allen said that Daboll (and now Dorsey's) play calls tended to be lengthy.

 

And as alluded to above, even if you change the play calls every game, mapping the formations, protections, and routes onto the new words is non-trivial.

 

So my understanding is most teams don't, in fact, change the playcalls for every game.

 

Some have said that in the AFCCG in 2020, the Chiefs appeared to have our offensive playcalls and that this may have been the result of all season in relatively empty stadia so that the offensive assistants were able to watch film and map the verbiage onto the formations and plays.

 

For anyone interested, here's a video of Cam Newton on a talk show going through a playcall.  Both Carolina and NE ran EP offenses.

Edited December 14, 2022 by Beck Water

[Patrick Duffy]

14 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

LOL, if you're going to tell a lie, especially when there;s not a single reason at all any lie would be needed, at least make it somewhat believable.....

 

There's simply no chance any team/coach does not get a general idea of what weather to prepare his team to possibly play in. I mean maybe he was being sarcastic when answering that question. But weather conditions certainly play a factor in game planning and there's no chance he has done "zero monitoring" at all leading up to this game...

 

Lol, 

8 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

Actually, no, I surely didn't know that play calls change every game.

I mean you think they use the same play calls for a game that was used the previous game when their opponents study the film of previous games and hear the play calls for that game?

 

That would make the job of opponents defenses much, much easier.....

[Sestak4ever]

I’m glad McDaniel went to the fish. Can’t stand him or the Phins. Make a good pairing. Revenge game!! Go Bills!!🏈🍻

[Beck Water]

28 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

I actually really respect Beasley quite a bit more than I expected, from listening to that. 

 

He acknowledged that there were things he'd like back, that he didn't handle as well as he could have, and that he reached to Beane and to McDermott to talk things through.  He gave an example of one of the family interactions that upset him (a child telling his 7 year old son he couldn't come to his birthday party because his mom "didn't like you") that I think would be hard for any parent to take.

 

I'm hopeful that however much he plays, he'll be a good and steadying influence in the locker room and perhaps raise the level of WR play overall.  And of course if he plays and contributes even better.

[Patrick Duffy]

12 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

I know that at one point, I think in 2019, Daboll was experimenting with 1 word play calls so the Bills could go no-huddle but change the plays easily at the line.  Those 1 word play calls changed every week.  The players were talking about how much work it was to memorize which words were representative of which play calls.  And of course if they forgot, confusion resulted.  It didn't last very long.

 

Erhardt Perkins offenses can have relatively simple playcalls like "F-left 72 Ghost/Tosser" (F-left is the formation, 72 is the protection, Ghost/Tosser identifies the routes), but Josh Allen said that Daboll (and now Dorsey's) play calls tended to be lengthy.

 

And as alluded to above, even if you change the play calls every game, mapping the formations, protections, and routes onto the new words is non-trivial.

 

So my understanding is most teams don't, in fact, change the playcalls for every game.

 

 

There are some kind of changes made, whether it's the name of the play or the formation etc... you may hear the same name yelled out sometimes that was used in the previous game. You can bet if the same name is used then something is different with how the play is ran than previous game.

 

Otherwise opponents game plan would be easy if one is silly enough to use the same call and same formation and same way it was ran as before. All they have to do is say, "hey they called blu cheese play" and know exactly what to expect is nothing was changed.

 

 

[T&C]

42 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Key word here is "personally"... he'll be kept up to date on the weather situation for sure.

[julian]

1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I think realistically we have to win out for the #1 seed.  I think the tough game will be Cinci unless we falter to someone we should beat easily, a la Jax last year.  Cinci I think will be about a 4 1/2 pt favorite versus us.

I hope he doesnt because Tua taking a hit that hard might kill him and i am not exaggerating.

If the Bills go into Cinci 12-3 on a 6 game win streak there’s virtually zero chance of Bills being an underdog 

[Greg S]

2 minutes ago, julian said:

If the Bills go into Cinci 12-3 on a 6 game win streak there’s virtually zero chance of Bills being an underdog 

 

The Bengals are really good as well. They are home. Burrow with all of those weapons will be a challenge. It wouldn't surprise me if the Bills are a slight underdog for this one.

[RoyBatty is alive]

2 minutes ago, julian said:

If the Bills go into Cinci 12-3 on a 6 game win streak there’s virtually zero chance of Bills being an underdog 

Zero change huh.   I disagree.

 

You realize Cinci is on a 5 game winning streak right now, one of the hottest teams in the NFL and home team usually gets implied 3 pts.  We shall see what happens between now and then.

[NewEra]

8 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Zero change huh.   I disagree.

 

You realize Cinci is on a 5 game winning streak right now, one of the hottest teams in the NFL and home team usually gets implied 3 pts.  We shall see what happens between now and then.

I don’t believe that to be the case anymore. I had a talk with one of my buddies who is bets sports for a living.  He thinks that 3-3.5 has changed in the last couple years and it’s more like 1-1.5 in most cases now. 

[julian]

11 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

The Bengals are really good as well. They are home. Burrow with all of those weapons will be a challenge. It wouldn't surprise me if the Bills are a slight underdog for this one.

Of course all those things are true, I would be surprised if the Bills were underdogs at 12-3 on a 6 game win streak… but I did say virtually for a reason, it’s possible Bengals could be a 1.5 point favourites, but the poster I was responding to said 4.5 point underdogs… that’s not happening in the scenario I laid out.

[Beck Water]

28 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

I mean you think they use the same play calls for a game that was used the previous game when their opponents study the film of previous games and hear the play calls for that game?

 

That would make the job of opponents defenses much, much easier.....

 

Well, bear in mind that if the team huddles, the other team really shouldn't be hearing the play call - so what would the point be to change it?

 

It only becomes an issue if there's an audible at the line of scrimmage, or if the team is running no-huddle.  And in ordinary years where there is plenty of crowd noise, even the audible is not necessarily clear on film.  Then there's the point that the same or very similar verbiage may encode different options, depending upon the rest of the call.  As an added wrinkle, a team may call several audibles including a code word (that does change weekly) to indicate which is the actual audible vs. the dummy call

 

So it's not necessarily so straightforward to decode, but yes, for a team that is resolute and thorough in its prep, it can provide an advantage and this was especially an issue in 2020 with minimal crowd noise and clearer audibles on film.  For that reason, teams seeking the maximum competitive advantage should change up their audibles weekly, but I don't believe they all do.

 

That's why a guy who knows the system and can help decode what info is available, can be an advantage to an opponent.

 

Of course, I could be mistaken on any point and I welcome correction.

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, julian said:

Of course all those things are true, I would be surprised if the Bills were underdogs at 12-3 on a 6 game win streak… but I did say virtually for a reason, it’s possible Bengals could be a 1.5 point favourites, but the poster I was responding to said 4.5 point underdogs… that’s not happening in the scenario I laid out.

4.5 point is probably a little too high. I would guess around 1.5 - 2.5. Somewhere in that range.

[Stank_Nasty]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I don’t believe that to be the case anymore. I had a talk with one of my buddies who is bets sports for a living.  He thinks that 3-3.5 has changed in the last couple years and it’s more like 1-1.5 in most cases now. 

you're right. its no longer 3. thats changed over the recent years.

[stevewin]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

I feel like that guy should be wearing white gloves while touching that - like the Stanley Cup caretaker dude

[Fleezoid]

1 hour ago, DapperCam said:

 

Haha, what a dumb approach. I hope that is true!

 

McDaniel on Saturday...."It's really cold here! And where the heck did all this dang snow come from?"

[jletha]

23 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Zero change huh.   I disagree.

 

You realize Cinci is on a 5 game winning streak right now, one of the hottest teams in the NFL and home team usually gets implied 3 pts.  We shall see what happens between now and then.

according to betting markets, we are ~3 points better than the Bengals. Obvi things will change between now and our game but if the game were this weekend it would be a pickem basically.

Edited December 14, 2022 by jletha

[RoyBatty is alive]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I don’t believe that to be the case anymore. I had a talk with one of my buddies who is bets sports for a living.  He thinks that 3-3.5 has changed in the last couple years and it’s more like 1-1.5 in most cases now. 

I dont know your buddy but that is possible, you have a few teams esp with franchises moving and easier access to tickets where there is next to now home field advantage  now like the Charger games or Miami in years when they are bad.   But home field definitely gets you an advantage, especially in Buffalo.

[NewEra]

Just now, RoyBatty is alive said:

I dont know your buddy but that is possible, you have a few teams esp with franchises moving and easier access to tickets where there is next to now home field advantage  now like the Charger games or Miami in years when they are bad.   But home field definitely gets you an advantage, especially in Buffalo.

I agree it gives “an advantage”.  It’s just not seen as 3 points by the sports books anymore 

[Warcodered]

 

[LeGOATski]

3 hours ago, Toledo Bill said:

All the more reason we need Milano to play.

He has one of the worst tackling percentages on the team, if I'm not mistaken. He's usually at the right spot to make the play, though.

[Boatdrinks]

37 minutes ago, Greg S said:

4.5 point is probably a little too high. I would guess around 1.5 - 2.5. Somewhere in that range.

If both teams win their next 2 games - and the Bills offense looks good in doing so then yes I agree. That spread would seem about right. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

33 minutes ago, jletha said:

according to betting markets, we are ~3 points better than the Bengals. Obvi things will change between now and our game but if the game were this weekend it would be a pickem basically.

 

 

Look, I am not saying they are great and I don't think they are winning or even going to the Super Bowl, but holy mackerel with this league, its fans and betting in general do the Minnesota Vikings really deserve to have to walk around wearing the "We are the Vikings, go ahead and take a big old s*** right in the middle of our chests" t-shirts that everyone has been making them wear lately?!

 

Boy.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Look, I am not saying they are great and I don't think they are winning or even going to the Super Bowl, but holy mackerel with this league, its fans and betting in general do the Minnesota Vikings really deserve to have to walk around wearing the "We are the Vikings, go ahead and take a big old s*** right in the middle of our chests" t-shirts that they have been wearing lately?!

 

Boy.

 

 

 

 

 

Their ranking for GB doesn't make sense either.

[Patrick Duffy]

35 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well, bear in mind that if the team huddles, the other team really shouldn't be hearing the play call - so what would the point be to change it?

 

It only becomes an issue if there's an audible at the line of scrimmage, or if the team is running no-huddle.  And in ordinary years where there is plenty of crowd noise, even the audible is not necessarily clear on film.  Then there's the point that the same or very similar verbiage may encode different options, depending upon the rest of the call.  As an added wrinkle, a team may call several audibles including a code word (that does change weekly) to indicate which is the actual audible vs. the dummy call

 

So it's not necessarily so straightforward to decode, but yes, for a team that is resolute and thorough in its prep, it can provide an advantage and this was especially an issue in 2020 with minimal crowd noise and clearer audibles on film.  For that reason, teams seeking the maximum competitive advantage should change up their audibles weekly, but I don't believe they all do.

 

That's why a guy who knows the system and can help decode what info is available, can be an advantage to an opponent.

 

Of course, I could be mistaken on any point and I welcome correction.

Well I'm mainly referring to the calls that are yelled out that are heard, (ex. QB calls at LOS etc). In any event, just about everything is a little different from one game to the next in some way, shape or form. 

 

There may be a couple here and there they won't change, but a team is not going to give an opponent the same looks, calls etc as they did the very previous game before. Good way to be out of a job quick I'd say

[YoloinOhio]

 

[KHAN]

2 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

The Bills don’t need optimal. They’re fighting for home to field to set them up for their first Super Bowl championship. Josh can be the difference in that battle. Often the team winning it all has overcome many less than optimal situations along the way. It’s what makes the sport so compelling. 

Nobody reads anymore.

 

The quote you responded to was me telling the previous guy that the answer he responded "So What" to was actually there earlier in my post. Cherry picked out of context.

 

Now you take me out of context again where I already said that this year you have to do what ever it takes to win. But you only quote the part about giving Josh help next year.

 

We can do better than this folks. Let's at least try to comprehend what people are saying before responding.

[Special K]

4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

If Milano isn’t listed as “limited” for tomorrow’s practice, he may not play.🤮

[Philo]

40 minutes ago, Special K said:

If Milano isn’t listed as “limited” for tomorrow’s practice, he may not play.🤮

 

Too lazy to look it up, but I believe he was DNP/DNP/Limited last week and looked great on Sunday. I'm guessing it's just load management or a veiled vet rest day for him at this point.