Bills among "unluckiest" teams in terms of Net Win Probability Added(worst in terms of FR luck)

[Big Turk]

 

This is pretty crazy...Bills are 2nd worst only to CAR in terms of "unluckiest" teams. 

 

This covers opponent dropped INT's, opponent dropped passes, opponent FG/XP attempts and fumble recoveries(both teams).  

 

Bills are BY FAR the worst at "fumble luck". 

Bills are 3rd worst in terms of FG/XP attempts

Bills tied for 5th worst in terms of opponent dropped passes(ie, opponents have fewer drops vs. us than they do against other teams)

 

The only thing they are "good" with is dropped INTs by opponents, although that is basically neutral at +.01 ,ranking 12th.

 

This all adds up to a total of -1.65 added net win probability due to "luck", second worst only to the Panthers at -1.68.

 

 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Big Turk

[RiotAct]

not surprising on the fumble luck. It feels like every damn game there’s at least one fumble we force, that bounces right back to someone on the offense.

[Stank_Nasty]

Yup..... this feels about right.

[jletha]

We have certainly had bad fumble luck, with key fumbles in Miami, KC, LA, Baltimore. But since this number tracks total WP, it is also heavily influenced by the fumble in the EZ against Minnesota. Our WP went from very high to very low.

[TheBrownBear]

So, the Bills are still tied to their Carolina roots, even where luck is concerned?  Great.

[reddogblitz]

I couldn't care less about these propeller head "advanced" stats.  Means nothing IMHO.  The only stat that matter is Wins and Losses. We're 8-3 and tied atop the AFC East.  We're doin' good. Its not rocket surgery.

Edited November 29, 2022 by reddogblitz

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

I couldn't care less about these propeller head "advanced" stats.  Means nothing IMHO.  The only stat that matter is Wins and Losses. We're 8-3 and tied atop the AFC East.  We're doin' good. Its not rocket surgery.

 

Neither did Dave Gettleman.

[Awwufelloff]

Sabres and Bills. It's a Buffalo thing. We're cursed ya know? 

[Virgil]

Yeah, I didn’t need statistics to prove this.  The only surprising thing is that  another team is worse. 

[Boatdrinks]

41 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

This is pretty crazy...Bills are 2nd worst only to CAR in terms of "unluckiest" teams. 

 

This covers opponent dropped INT's, opponent dropped passes, opponent FG/XP attempts and fumble recoveries(both teams).  

 

Bills are BY FAR the worst at "fumble luck". 

Bills are 3rd worst in terms of FG/XP attempts

Bills tied for 5th worst in terms of opponent dropped passes(ie, opponents have fewer drops vs. us than they do against other teams)

 

The only thing they are "good" with is dropped INTs by opponents, although that is basically neutral at +.01 ,ranking 12th.

 

This all adds up to a total of -1.65 added net win probability due to "luck", second worst only to the Panthers at -1.68.

 

 

Interesting , and definitely fits in with what has become a recurring theme with the Bills this year.. a LOT of misfortune. 

[DrDawkinstein]

43 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

This is pretty crazy...Bills are 2nd worst only to CAR in terms of "unluckiest" teams. 

 

This covers opponent dropped INT's, opponent dropped passes, opponent FG/XP attempts and fumble recoveries(both teams).  

 

Bills are BY FAR the worst at "fumble luck". 

Bills are 3rd worst in terms of FG/XP attempts

Bills tied for 5th worst in terms of opponent dropped passes(ie, opponents have fewer drops vs. us than they do against other teams)

 

The only thing they are "good" with is dropped INTs by opponents, although that is basically neutral at +.01 ,ranking 12th.

 

This all adds up to a total of -1.65 added net win probability due to "luck", second worst only to the Panthers at -1.68.

 

 

 

Sounds about right to what we've been seeing on the field.

 

Which is a big concern and bummer as far as our Super Bowl aspirations go, because one thing that every SB champion has in common is a good amount of luck breaking their way through the season.

 

As the old saying goes "it's better to be lucky than to be good"

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Sounds about right to what we've been seeing on the field.

 

Which is a big concern and bummer as far as our Super Bowl aspirations go, because one thing that every SB champion has in common is a good amount of luck breaking their way through the season.

 

As the old saying goes "it's better to be lucky than to be good"

Or, as per regression to the mean, we are due.

[Sestak4ever]

Teams bring their best games against us each week. Wilson’s best game with the Jets, Brisset with the Browns, etc., etc. Opposing receivers seem to make multiple unbelievable catches even in tight coverage. It probably helps us prep for the playoffs.

[Fleezoid]

[The Wiz]

Pretty wild considering they are 2nd in takeaways with the amount of dropped INT's and fumbles not recovered. 

[RiotAct]

18 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Sounds about right to what we've been seeing on the field.

 

Which is a big concern and bummer as far as our Super Bowl aspirations go, because one thing that every SB champion has in common is a good amount of luck breaking their way through the season.

 

As the old saying goes "it's better to be lucky than to be good"

the way I look at it is, we’re 8-3 and maybe some of the lucky bounces start going our way!

[Boatdrinks]

14 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Or, as per regression to the mean, we are due.

They’ve been pretty fortunate the last couple seasons and failed to capitalize on it. They may have their best roster of the 3 years now, but are not having the good fortune. A lot of things have to go right to have a chance at a Super Bowl and the Bills have an uphill climb ahead. 

[WhoTom]

On the other hand, we lucked into Josh in the 2018 draft. That's not a slam on Beane, who obviously did his homework and picked the best one of the bunch, but the fact that four other QB-needy teams had a shot at him - heck, the Browns had TWO shots - and didn't take him.

 

I'll take the Bills' "luck" any day.

 

 

[Buffalo Boy]

   And yet, when luck is stacked against them, both injuries and dumb luck, they have the only lost three close games.

   IF we get healthy at the right time, this will be the most battle tested team in the league. 
    Internal fortitude is real and is often learned through perseverance during bad periods.

    Exactly like last year, the season is just prologue to the playoffs which is the only thing that matters.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

the way I look at it is, we’re 8-3 and maybe some of the lucky bounces start going our way!

 

If we manage to pull it off, it would be quite the 30 For 30 story.

 

Going back to getting screwed by McKissic and WFT which made us lose out on both McKissic and Wallace, the Araiza debacle, Saffold's car accident, Knox's brother passing, each and every injury on what has been the previously healthiest team, the illnesses, moving a home game to Detroit... Let alone all the stuff that has happened in-game like fumbling the snap to give the Vikings the go ahead TD.

 

It's just ridiculous. And we still have 1/3 of the season left!

[LABILLBACKER]

Every time we play someone we get their best effort.  Almost flawless performance by qbs that normally would be considered mediocre or worse. Injuries have devastated this team, yet by some miracle we're still 8-3. More players sick, more players going down. I don't know if the SB is in our stars this season but I sure wish a little luck would come our way.

[dorquemada]

36 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Or, as per regression to the mean, we are due.

 

yeah take our bad luck lumps now, get some lucky bounces later

 

or, yeah man, we're cursed

[2003Contenders]

Turnovers are always a key stat in wins/losses, but I bet it is even more so for a team like the Bills. The dropped INTs and unrecovered fumbles really are noteworthy, especially for a bend-but-don't break defense like the Bills'. The defense is built to force the opponent to drive the distance of the field, requiring more plays to hit pay-dirt -- and, consequently, more opportunities for something bad (for the offense) to happen. When the defense fails to cash in on turnover opportunities, it can lead to a long day.

 

Probably the most glaring non-turnover that strikes me, was in the Jets game. Thanks to a successful fake punt, the Jets held the ball for about 9 minutes before Miller got the strip sack on Wilson -- creating a fumble that WAS recovered by the Bills. Alas, Josh immediately throws an interception that puts the Jets right back into scoring range.  (Despite all of the red zone INTs, this to me was Josh's most egregious turnover... but I will save that for another discussion!) Anyway, on the very next play, the Jets run a toss sweep and Garrett Wilson fumbles the ball. He doesn't just fumble the ball, he sends it flying 10+ yards downfield -- yet somehow with multiple Bills defenders in the proximity, Wilson is able to recover the ball himself. We all know what happened next.

[US Egg]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

This is pretty crazy

What? You starting another thread? 
 

Never!

[eSJayDee]

Rather surprised by the FG stat.  Seems to me we get a fair amount of FGs missed against us (not excessive, but when almost 90% of kicks are made, it doesn't take much).

One thing we have going for us WRT dropped INTs, is that Allen often throws w/ a higher than average velocity, making it harder to catch, particularly when you're not used to it.

[BillsFanSD]

Not surprised by this.  We're exactly two plays from being 10-1, and people are starting threads about whether McDermott needs to go SMH.

28 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

yeah take our bad luck lumps now, get some lucky bounces later

 

or, yeah man, we're cursed

Well, regression to the mean is actually a thing.  We were incredibly lucky in 2020 and 2021 in terms of injuries, to the point that people were crediting our practice facilities and staff as some kind of secret sauce.  While our facilities and training staff may be outstanding, we're learning now that they can't prevent on-field injuries.  Sometimes things like this just happen.

[reddogblitz]

2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

the old saying goes "it's better to be lucky than to be good"

 

That's how it goes, but its a dumb saying.

[eball]

Must be McD's fault.

[ROCBillsBeliever]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

This is pretty crazy...Bills are 2nd worst only to CAR in terms of "unluckiest" teams. 

 

This covers opponent dropped INT's, opponent dropped passes, opponent FG/XP attempts and fumble recoveries(both teams).  

 

Bills are BY FAR the worst at "fumble luck". 

Bills are 3rd worst in terms of FG/XP attempts

Bills tied for 5th worst in terms of opponent dropped passes(ie, opponents have fewer drops vs. us than they do against other teams)

 

The only thing they are "good" with is dropped INTs by opponents, although that is basically neutral at +.01 ,ranking 12th.

 

This all adds up to a total of -1.65 added net win probability due to "luck", second worst only to the Panthers at -1.68.

 

 

 

I'm F'ing Irish. I nearly died 4x due to cancer (Which had ZERO familial history). I've literally never won a single bet I've placed...

 

These are #FACTS 

 

When people tell me I wear a tinfoil hat, I show them my scars.

 

Thankful to see some math behind the inanity... I know what I've lived through...

[todd]

Try to say "fumble luck" five times fast. I can't. At least not in mixed company.

[todd]

44 minutes ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

 

I'm F'ing Irish. I nearly died 4x due to cancer (Which had ZERO familial history). I've literally never won a single bet I've placed...

 

These are #FACTS 

 

When people tell me I wear a tinfoil hat, I show them my scars.

 

Thankful to see some math behind the inanity... I know what I've lived through...

 

You & me both, brother. I got a cancer called chordoma so rare only 300 people get it in the US a year. Not genetic. Just unlucky. I have wicked, nasty scars on my ass you wouldn't believe. Unlucky. My ass modeling career is over. I got side effects from radiation that only 4% of people who get my kind of radiation get. Unlucky.

 

I never win anything in games of chance or luck. I run a fantasy football league (which as we all know is more luck than skill) and it took me 19 years to win it. Unlucky. 

 

I bring bad weather on most trips I take. I've been to the Grand Canyon but have never seen it. Freak snow storm - whiteout - couldn't see the canyon despite standing on the edge of it.

 

Went to Cabo San Lucas and rode ATVs. It rained. I asked the guide how often it rains. He said 3 or 4 times a year. Golf trips - RAIN. Golf trip in Orlando, Fla - Frost delays and cold. Yeah, I'm the king of bad luck.

 

Bad luck is a thing. 

[Success]

So, per the laws of probability - we're due.

 

Hopefully it will tilt back our way come playoff time.

 

[ROCBillsBeliever]

8 minutes ago, todd said:

 

You & me both, brother. I got a cancer called chordoma so rare only 300 people get it in the US a year. Not genetic. Just unlucky. I have wicked, nasty scars on my ass you wouldn't believe. Unlucky. My ass modeling career is over. I got side effects from radiation that only 4% of people who get my kind of radiation get. Unlucky.

 

I never win anything in games of chance or luck. I run a fantasy football league (which as we all know is more luck than skill) and it took me 19 years to win it. Unlucky. 

 

I bring bad weather on most trips I take. I've been to the Grand Canyon but have never seen it. Freak snow storm - whiteout - couldn't see the canyon despite standing on the edge of it.

 

Went to Cabo San Lucas and rode ATVs. It rained. I asked the guide how often it rains. He said 3 or 4 times a year. Golf trips - RAIN. Golf trip in Orlando, Fla - Frost delays and cold. Yeah, I'm the king of bad luck.

 

Bad luck is a thing. 

Let's "Proclaim" to be Dolphin fans... Maybe we can sink their boat.

[27yanks]

What in the name of Bills Mafia is Fumble Luck!!! Not that's funny.

[StHustle]

We have gotta be top 5 in most contested catches against

[Augie]

5 hours ago, Virgil said:

Yeah, I didn’t need statistics to prove this.  The only surprising thing is that  another team is worse. 

 

I’m hoping to enjoy the ride back to the mean! 

[TheBrownBear]

36 minutes ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

Let's "Proclaim" to be Dolphin fans... Maybe we can sink their boat.

I want in with you guys.  Very rare cancer as a kid and still dealing with the side and late term effects of chemo and radiation.  I too have never won in a game of chance - which at least kept me from developing a gambling habit.  Had a dream backpacking trip planned to Glacier a year in advance and the day before my backcountry reservation my car broke down in Billings, Montana. Had to stay in a KOA for a week instead while the mechanic waited for parts.  My wife left me for a woman, but other than that I can't remember another instance of "good luck" during my 40+ years on Earth.

[WhoTom]

1 hour ago, todd said:

Try to say "fumble luck" five times fast. I can't. At least not in mixed company.

 

I tried to say it once and ended up with a Steve Miller Band earworm that's driving me mad and making me crazy.

 

 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

5 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

They’ve been pretty fortunate the last couple seasons and failed to capitalize on it. They may have their best roster of the 3 years now, but are not having the good fortune. A lot of things have to go right to have a chance at a Super Bowl and the Bills have an uphill climb ahead. 

Ya but replace Bills with any other non-bottom-dweller team and that is still true. They have been fortunate the last couple years with injuries.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I don’t need stats to confirm the story of our collective football life.