Week 8: SNF Packers at Bills (-10.5) 10/30 8:20pm

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

7 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Meh, seems low to me.

The Bills under McDermott have been stellar post bye week. 5-0, and scoring 4.82 more points than their average and allowing 1.11 points fewer than their average. Bake those numbers into the Ralph in a prime time spot, I make it more Bills -9, but if the Packers can manage to win convincingly this week that might come down to 7 and then I'll hit it. 

Edited October 19, 2022 by SACTOBILLSFAN

[Bills2022]

27 minutes ago, The Red King said:

 

Let the gravitas of that statement sink in. 😆

 

NFL Power Rankings.  

 

Vikings #6

Giants #5

Jets #7

 

Thanks for playing.  🤣

[DCofNC]

1 minute ago, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

The Bills under McDermott have been stellar post bye week. 5-0, and scoring 4.82 more points than their average and allowing 1.11 points fewer than their average. Bake those numbers into the Ralph in a prime time spot, I make it more Bills -9, but if the Packers can win this week that might come down to 7 and then I'll hit it. 

I hear ya, I think it should be closer to -13, but they are probably being a bit cautious not setting it too high, there’s a 2 week window, it could get real weird if Rodgers gets hurt. 

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

Just now, DCofNC said:

I hear ya, I think it should be closer to -13, but they are probably being a bit cautious not setting it too high, there’s a 2 week window, it could get real weird if Rodgers gets hurt. 

Books don't hedge on possible injuries, they just keep the limits lower on their look ahead lines. It might re-open a little lower if the Pack can get right a little bit against Washington, but it won't be by much. I'm hoping it re-opens at 7.5 and a bunch of pros that grab numbers on the other side of key numbers early in the week get it down to 7. 

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

Yeah gona be an insane welcome for Tre. Would be awesome if Tre not only returns that game, but also gets an INT in his first game returned....!!

Sunday night too!! 

[TPS]

2 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 And we have the only starting QB in the league averaging over 300 yards a game(Believe or not Flacco averaged 300.3 in 3 starts). I don't think this game will be close and the fans will be going nuts with it being a night game, first game since beating KC and not seeing our team play in 2 weeks. Josh 341 yards passing, 48 yards rushing, 3 passing tds and 2 rushing tds. Bills - 48 Pack - 17.

 

 

That's why I find it interesting.  When you look at the passing D stats, most of the teams the Bills have played are at the bottom, and most of the teams at the top have not played many good QBs.  Cousins and Brady both threw for 270-80 yards against the Pack, so I think your projection is close on yards.

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

3 minutes ago, TPS said:

That's why I find it interesting.  When you look at the passing D stats, most of the teams the Bills have played are at the bottom, and most of the teams at the top have not played many good QBs.  Cousins and Brady both threw for 270-80 yards against the Pack, so I think your projection is close on yards.

 

Part of the reason the guys who have played the Bills are at the bottom are because they played the Bills in 16.7% of their games.

Edited October 19, 2022 by SACTOBILLSFAN

[TPS]

Just now, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

 

Part of the reason the guys who have played the Bills are at the bottom are because they played the Bills in 16.7% of their games.

Yes, I mentioned it because it's the counter to the Packers having the #1 passing D--the only decent QB they have faced is Cousins, unless you want to count the old man.

[Kaenon]

3 hours ago, DollaBills said:

Packers have been paper tigers for a few years now. Now they are just listless. Going to be amazing night game hopefully with Tre returning

That Rodgers contract man.

[Big Turk]

Honestly surprised it's not more. GB living off the past with Vegas.

[hemma]

The last time we played them was 9/30/18 and we were thumped 22-0.

 

Josh: 16/33, 151, 0 TD, 2 ints, 1 fumble, rtg 36.3, qbr 4.9, sacked 7 times, 11 qb hits,

 

Anybody think he just might remember that game?

 

 

oops.  Almost forgot.  2.2 yards per pass.

Edited October 19, 2022 by hemma

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

The Bills under McDermott have been stellar post bye week. 5-0, and scoring 4.82 more points than their average and allowing 1.11 points fewer than their average. Bake those numbers into the Ralph in a prime time spot, I make it more Bills -9, but if the Packers can manage to win convincingly this week that might come down to 7 and then I'll hit it. 

I'd rather be playing the Packers coming off a W then a loss. Either way I think we give Aaron fits and win by 10.

[GolfandBills]

I’m actually shocked it’s not double digits 

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

10 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'd rather be playing the Packers coming off a W then a loss. Either way I think we give Aaron fits and win by 10.

 

I don't think it will really matter in terms of a win or loss for the Bills, I'm only talking about the gambling angle and getting a tick down in the spread. 

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

For as much as I hear about a team being pissed off and dangerous following an embarrassing loss I wonder if there's any statistical evidence that this is a factor.  If anything I would guess that demoralizing losses just lead to more losing.

 

I would be curious to know that too actually.  But I do think all time greats find ways to dig deeper though.  On paper this team should be better than it is, so the point is, they can turn it on at any point, don't take them lightly is the moral of the story.

2 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

They won’t be coming off that loss. They play at Washington on Sunday.

 

Yeah, the Washington game is an easy get right game for them.  I should have clarified that.  Not to mention, lots of talk of them making a trade for a WR too here soon. 

Edited October 19, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[L Ron Burgundy]

7 hours ago, clayboy54 said:

What’s gonna fall in place? A nuke?

Wrs get healthy.   They had 4 out one week and that's a position they already suck at.  

[JoPoy88]

8 hours ago, Bills2022 said:

 

NFL Power Rankings.  

 

Vikings #6

Giants #5

Jets #7

 

Thanks for playing.  🤣

citing power rankings now? As actual facts even. Thank you for playing. 

[GETTOTHE50]

What is up with the packers anyway?

 

where is that troll iceberg when it actually makes sense? 

[LyndonvilleBill]

7 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'd rather be playing the Packers coming off a W then a loss. Either way I think we give Aaron fits and win by 10.

I'm torn on this. They win, it could help them gain confidence,  they lose, it could totally suck the soul out of them.🤔😁

[Repulsif]

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I expect to sack Rodgers 6 times

and how many roughting the passer ?

[machine gun kelly]

It is still mind numbing we are going to a bye at 5-1, and everyone is getting healthy.  Especially as before the season was supposed to be murderers row in the first 7 games.

 

I have no doubt we will beat the Packs at home.  Now, we should have Tre, and the rest of the team is getting healthy.  If we do what Von keeps saying and get OBJ, I’m actually allowing myself to think maybe it could be true and we finally win the big one.  (I just welled up thinking about it).

 

I don’t know if I’ll cry or lose my mind in jubilation.

 

Go Bills!!!!!!!

[Fan in Chicago]

This one will be a blowout. A 20+ point Buffalo victory. 

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

It is still mind numbing we are going to a bye at 5-1, and everyone is getting healthy.  Especially as before the season was supposed to be murderers row in the first 7 games.

 

I have no doubt we will beat the Packs at home.  Now, we should have Tre, and the rest of the team is getting healthy.  If we do what Von keeps saying and get OBJ, I’m actually allowing myself to think maybe it could be true and we finally win the big one.  (I just welled up thinking about it).

 

I don’t know if I’ll cry or lose my mind in jubilation.

 

Go Bills!!!!!!!

I would cry....most definitely. Like a baby.....like a p***y ass B**CH...like a little girl.  I don't care.  Been through too much, been too close, had my heart wrenched out and placed back in too many times.  There would be tears of joy.

[Greg S]

12 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

I really want GB to win this weekend so the Bills do not face a desperate and focused Rodgers the week later.

 

Say what you want to, a desperate Rodgers/ GB is not a good team to face.

 

That said otherwise Bills by a lot.

 

GB is playing Washington this week so I think you will get your wish.

[FLFan]

14 hours ago, PonyBoy said:

Only June Cleaver could understand this jive.😀

It’s that quality Clemson education.  

[Beast]

Allen strikes me as the type of player that has a long memory and will definitely remember the Packers battering him his rookie season.

 

I look for a Bills blowout.

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, Fan in Chicago said:

This one will be a blowout. A 20+ point Buffalo victory. 

 

Allen needs this one to add to his list of NFL teams he has beaten and he only gets a shot once every 4 years! Well...maybe more depending on the 17th game that is scheduled now.

[C.Biscuit97]

I can’t believe the Packers are this bad. If they are smart (which they might not be), they try to hammer us with the run and take play action shots.  But their wrs struggle to get separation and their defense has been disappointing. 
 

if the Bills get a lead early, I can see A A Ron screaming at his teammates and going into a shell.

[Big Turk]

 

[newcam2012]

11 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I can’t believe the Packers are this bad. If they are smart (which they might not be), they try to hammer us with the run and take play action shots.  But their wrs struggle to get separation and their defense has been disappointing. 
 

if the Bills get a lead early, I can see A A Ron screaming at his teammates and going into a shell.

Their coaching is really bad too. Their best offensive player RB Jones is not touching the ball enough. Like you stated, the defense is playing poorly. Rodgers in a press conference stated they need to keep things simple. I interpret that as him not trusting his receivers and handing the rock off more. Tough way to win without a dominate defense. The Packers look to be in some serious trouble. 

[Freddie's Dead]

16 hours ago, PonyBoy said:

Only June Cleaver could understand this jive.😀

Chump don' wan' da he'p, chump don' get da he'p.

[Big Turk]

23 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Their coaching is really bad too. Their best offensive player RB Jones is not touching the ball enough. Like you stated, the defense is playing poorly. Rodgers in a press conference stated they need to keep things simple. I interpret that as him not trusting his receivers and handing the rock off more. Tough way to win without a dominate defense. The Packers look to be in some serious trouble. 

 

It's more likely that he means the young guys are having to think too much out there and not playing fast enough.  

[Greg S]

Another thing about this game. The Bills have to defend their streak. GB has never won in OP. Hope that continues.

[Fan in Chicago]

44 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

It's more likely that he means the young guys are having to think too much out there and not playing fast enough.  

Or he means that he is too lazy to learn something new or help the younguns like Watson

[colin]

the people touting the revenge factor/beating a childhood idol factor for allen have it right.

 

he was overly tense/star struck in his rookie game, coming off of (or at least close to) a huge upset win in Minni.  he had a terrible terrible performance.

 

he will likely never play aaron rogers again, fellow cali qb and a legend of the game.  i could see josh forcing a couple things early (sugar high josh) but once he gets it together he will be magic man once again.  

 

i expect another blowout home win.

[Big Turk]

Watkins has been designated to return from IR...likely he will be playing when we face GB.

 

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by Big Turk

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Or he means that he is too lazy to learn something new or help the younguns like Watson

Rodgers isn't exactly the most likeable guy. 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

Watkins has been designated to return from IR...likely he will be playing when we face GB.

 

 

And get hurt that game too (man, I thought Sammy was going to be good too. It is also insane he’s not even 30 yet!). 

4 hours ago, Greg S said:

Another thing about this game. The Bills have to defend their streak. GB has never won in OP. Hope that continues.

I was at the last game where they won and didn’t have an offensive Td. I hate Kyle Orton.

[Ralonzo]

8 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I don’t know if I’ll cry or lose my mind in jubilation.

 

 

Get yourself a bottle of Glengooly Blue Label, do a shot at 0:00 and bring the rest to the parade, I'll find you

[Big Turk]

20 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

I really want GB to win this weekend so the Bills do not face a desperate and focused Rodgers the week later.

 

Say what you want to, a desperate Rodgers/ GB is not a good team to face.

 

That said otherwise Bills by a lot.

 

It's irrelevant, the Bills are simply far better than the Packers are, and Josh Allen on PrimeTime is usually otherworldly

34 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

And get hurt that game too (man, I thought Sammy was going to be good too. It is also insane he’s not even 30 yet!). 

I was at the last game where they won and didn’t have an offensive Td. I hate Kyle Orton.

 

Is that the game that Mario Williams destroyed them and Aaron Rodgers looked God Awful?  And Jordy Nelson dropped a wide open long TD? Also...the Baccari Rambo game with 2 INTs...

 

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by Big Turk