Week 6: Bills at CHIEFS 10/16 4:25pm

[fergie's ire]

46 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Didn’t the Bungles just beat them at home in the playoffs?

As did the Patriots in 2018.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Negan said:

Cover Kelce and don't blitz Mahomes 

 

Literally hit Kelce every freaking pass play off the line.  If he is inline hammer him with a DE prior to him rushing

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

 

Bills at Ravens - Bills have grit as well. They usually kick the crap out of the other team so most of their wins are by two scores or more.

 

I find it funny that people want to punish the Bills for beating the hell out of teams instead of allowing them to hang around in games like the Chiefs do and win by one score much more frequently

[extrahammer]

Is Tre White coming back for this game?

[buffaloboyinATL]

9 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Call was legit. Came down with his weight on top of Carr. Now the one on Brady? Clean , textbook QB sack while he’s in the pocket. 

I get the call, but I disagree with it. He did his best to brace himself with one arm while he was recovering a fumble with the other. He went from being a tackler to being the ball carrier.  At the end of the day, I hate the Chiefs so I'm glad a call went against them, but I am concerned that the officials are impacting WAY too may games right now, often incorrectly. 

[Repulsif]

For a few years now, the Bills-Chiefs games are the 90's Cowboys-49ers ones

The winner will probably win the next Superbowl

[boyst]

2 minutes ago, extrahammer said:

Is Tre White coming back for this game?

highly unlikely. trotting him out there with only 3 days practice is not reasonable.

 

most, including myself, expect him to return on a capped snap count or %. i'd expect no more than 50% the first game and workign the way up from there.

 

ultimately i expect him on the field 100% with Benford and Elam benched for Jackson. Both the former will do substitutions based on scheme for the latter plus Tre.

[Big Turk]

9 minutes ago, extrahammer said:

Is Tre White coming back for this game?

 

No, he hasn't even started practicing yet. And even if he did after not playing any football for 9+ months I highly doubt he would be very effective.

Edited October 11, 2022 by Big Turk

[beebe]

Where do the Chiefs have an advantage over the Bills? Anywhere? The Bills have a better overall pass offense. They have a better run defense. They have a better pass defense. They are more reliable in the kicking game with Butker out. The only area where KC is better is in the run game. But over the last 2.5 years, I can only think of one game where the Chiefs won primarily due to a run-first approach. It just so happened to be the game vs the Bills in 2020 (you could argue last week vs Bucs too, but Mahomes was pretty special in that one and did his fair share.) 

 

The 2020 game, the Chiefs followed the blueprint laid out by the Titans a week prior. Buffalo's run D was brutal. KC took advantage. The Bills addressed that issue, got better as the season wore on, and has since evolved into an elite unit. If the Chiefs try to go run heavy (I think there's a strong chance they do), the Bills will get enough early-down stops to force the 50/50 3rd-and-longs and will get off the field enough times. 

 

I just don't see KC's defense getting off the field once the Bills cross midfield. Buffalo is too hard to stop in four-down territory. 

 

Outside of Mahomes doing Mahomes things and Arrowhead Stadium magic, I just don't see KC being a serious threat here. I think the Bills get ahead early, maintain a lead throughout, and the Chiefs (if they play well) will keep it close but never seriously threaten. These teams are simply in different places right now. 

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, Negan said:

Cover Kelce and don't blitz Mahomes 

Good plan for sure. Also if Mahomes does start running hit him as hard as you can to make him second guess the next time he has to decide to run or not. 

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, beebe said:

Where do the Chiefs have an advantage over the Bills? Anywhere? The Bills have a better overall pass offense. They have a better run defense. They have a better pass defense. They are more reliable in the kicking game with Butker out. The only area where KC is better is in the run game. But over the last 2.5 years, I can only think of one game where the Chiefs won primarily due to a run-first approach. It just so happened to be the game vs the Bills in 2020 (you could argue last week vs Bucs too, but Mahomes was pretty special in that one and did his fair share.) 

 

The 2020 game, the Chiefs followed the blueprint laid out by the Titans a week prior. Buffalo's run D was brutal. KC took advantage. The Bills addressed that issue, got better as the season wore on, and has since evolved into an elite unit. If the Chiefs try to go run heavy (I think there's a strong chance they do), the Bills will get enough early-down stops to force the 50/50 3rd-and-longs and will get off the field enough times. 

 

I just don't see KC's defense getting off the field once the Bills cross midfield. Buffalo is too hard to stop in four-down territory. 

 

Outside of Mahomes doing Mahomes things and Arrowhead Stadium magic, I just don't see KC being a serious threat here. I think the Bills get ahead early, maintain a lead throughout, and the Chiefs (if they play well) will keep it close but never seriously threaten. These teams are simply in different places right now. 

 

Bills need to continue their stellar opening drive TD run...they have scored TD's on 9 of the last 10 opening drives I believe, with Baltimore being the one where they didn't.

 

I also love Allen in this game...the bigger the moment the better Allen is usually(unlike what Skip Bayless says).

Edited October 11, 2022 by Big Turk

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

We have turned the ball over 9 times to this point in the season, good for 5th most in the league. Need to clean that up going forward. 
 

Can’t turn the ball do that against the Chiefs. 

That is very true. That has to be cleaned up and I think that every member of the Buffalo Bills from ownership down to the athletic training staff would agree with you. That being said, we're actually better that the Chiefs on TO differential. They don't turn it over, but they don't get a lot of takeaways either.

[Motorin']

19 minutes ago, beebe said:

Where do the Chiefs have an advantage over the Bills? Anywhere? The Bills have a better overall pass offense. They have a better run defense. They have a better pass defense. They are more reliable in the kicking game with Butker out. The only area where KC is better is in the run game. But over the last 2.5 years, I can only think of one game where the Chiefs won primarily due to a run-first approach. It just so happened to be the game vs the Bills in 2020 (you could argue last week vs Bucs too, but Mahomes was pretty special in that one and did his fair share.) 

 

The 2020 game, the Chiefs followed the blueprint laid out by the Titans a week prior. Buffalo's run D was brutal. KC took advantage. The Bills addressed that issue, got better as the season wore on, and has since evolved into an elite unit. If the Chiefs try to go run heavy (I think there's a strong chance they do), the Bills will get enough early-down stops to force the 50/50 3rd-and-longs and will get off the field enough times. 

 

I just don't see KC's defense getting off the field once the Bills cross midfield. Buffalo is too hard to stop in four-down territory. 

 

Outside of Mahomes doing Mahomes things and Arrowhead Stadium magic, I just don't see KC being a serious threat here. I think the Bills get ahead early, maintain a lead throughout, and the Chiefs (if they play well) will keep it close but never seriously threaten. These teams are simply in different places right now. 

 

The one area the Chiefs are ahead is in Red Zone offense. They're 3rd in the league, scoring a TD 78% of the time, we're 21st scoring a TD 55% of the time.

 

The good news is our D is much better in the Red Zone than there's 9th (50%) to 31st (82%).

 

 

 

 

[Big Turk]

Kelce set an NFL record by catching 4 TD passes with the fewest overall receiving yards.

 

7 catches for only 25 yards but 4 TDs 

 

Marvin Jones was the previous record holder with 93 yards.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/scott_pianowski/status/1579682962248908800

 

 

[billsfanmd07]

Oak scored 30 and outside of Adams, Oak had no WR's. They had a guy with crazy hair and he looked awful....Our 4 WR and Knox cant all be double covered. They may focus on GD or Diggs and I like our rookie to light it up.

Edited October 11, 2022 by billsfanmd07

[boyst]

1 minute ago, billsfanmd07 said:

Outside of Adams, Oak had no WR's. They had a guy with crazy hair and he looked awful....Our 4 WR and Knox cant all be double covered. They may focus on GD or Diggs and I like our rookie to light it up.

and under the radar Singleterry is doing a lot of catching out of the backfield. 

 

Singleterry has 18 catches on 23 targets.

 

[wjag]

Does it feel like this week is the summit of the season schedule?  When the schedule came out:

 

@LA (TNF)

TEN (MNF)

@MIA

@BAL

PIT

@KC

Bye

 

That looked and felt daunting.  4 road games in six weeks, four on national TV.  While I am by no means discounting the remaining games, this feels like it has been building and building and building to this game.  After this, it's play out the string.  BUT THIS IS THE WEEK. Gut check time and then a long exhale.  Phew..

Edited October 11, 2022 by wjag

[Fleezoid]

4 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Jason Witten was like Kelce had average speed but had one really patented move and always was open. Don’t have to be an athletic freak in the NFL 90 percent of the game is technique. 
 

Still I like Milano and Edmunds chances against Kelce much better then the crap I saw in Vegas. That team defensively is atrocious to begin with and they still should have won if Adams simply gets another foot down. 

 

I too like Milano on Kelce. But whoever's on him has to be extremely aggressive, to the point of risking interference penalties. If he's not getting catches, frustration may creep in. Also, there are no YACs with penalties. I'm not advocating giving up free plays, but I don't like the alternative. 

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, HopelessNJBuffaloFan said:

This is definitely going to be the hardest test for the Bills. Mahomes is definitely elite. We have seen that we can hang with the Chiefs and actually beat them. The Bills are going to have to play a near perfect game to have a shot here. The things that give me hope on this game:

 

1. The Chiefs secondary can easily be picked on. If Carr can do it, then Allen can do more damage.

2. The Raiders were all over that offensive line last night. If everyone healthy, we can easily do the same as we have a much better Defensive line. 

3. You can run all over the KC defensive line. (Ok, not exactly our strength, but should be easier as KC is going to play to Josh's strength)

 

The rest is just going to be great football. If we win our main competition for tops in AFC is 2 games behind! Hate the wait, but Lets Go Buffalo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'd like to add:

 

(1) can the Bills RB effectively run on the Chiefs?

 

(2) how do the Bills stop Kelce?

 

(3) Will Elam and the Bills young inexperienced secondary finally be exposed by Mahomes? 

 

(4) I think the Chiefs dare the Bills to run. 

 

This is going to be a great test. How many of us last night knew the Chiefs were going to win even when down 17-0? Chiefs just know how to win and are never out of a game. The Bills need a relentless pass rush all game long. This is why we got Von!

51 minutes ago, extrahammer said:

Is Tre White coming back for this game?

No

[RiotAct]

52 minutes ago, extrahammer said:

Is Tre White coming back for this game?

Packers game, my friend. Packers game.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[wjag]

Just now, RiotAct said:

Packers game, my friend. Packers game.

 

If even then.  I suspect it will be Home to Vikings.  Starts practicing with Bills AFTER the bye.  Gets two weeks of practice in and misses the Packer and Jets and triumphantly runs out of the tunnel for Minnesota.

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

Some keys:

1. Frazier has to change things up. We can’t just play soft zone every time against these bums. Mahomes is just too good. The numbers say don’t blitz Mahomes but we need a wrinkle here and there. That said, we specifically paid Von to play in this game. Brown struggled last night against the speed of Chandler Jones, so Von needs to have the same impact. 

2. I don’t expect us to stop Mahomes much at all based on Fraziers track record against him. And Mahomes seems bored in most games but his eyes light up when it’s josh Allen on the other side. Because of that, we have to win a shootout in my opinion. This game will be won if Josh plays incredible again. The raiders showed the KC secondary is vulnerable so need to take advantage. 

 

3. Chris Jones in an absolute problem. Frank Clark too. They’ll get a sack or 2, but just can’t let those be strip sacks that give Mahomes a short field. 

4. A sneaky thing but Chavarious Ward is luckily gone now. He’s wrapped Diggs up the last few times and seems to be Diggs kryptonite with how handsy he is. Diggs needs to show up this time. He only had 3 catches for 7 yards in the divisional game in January. Hopefully ward being gone helps with that. The offense just works so much better when 14 is involved. 

5. chiefs ran the ball all over Tampa, so can we slow them down? They’ll want to run the ball to keep it from josh. Gotta man up and stop them and get josh the ball as much as possible. 
 

6. same is true for us also. We will see light boxes. Can we run the ball enough to keep the ball away from Mahomes? 
 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Literally hit Kelce every freaking pass play off the line.  If he is inline hammer him with a DE prior to him rushing

 

I find it funny that people want to punish the Bills for beating the hell out of teams instead of allowing them to hang around in games like the Chiefs do and win by one score much more frequently

It’s hard to hit him cuz they’re running quick pick plays all game long.  

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

11 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I'd like to add:

 

(1) can the Bills RB effectively run on the Chiefs?

 

(2) how do the Bills stop Kelce?

 

(3) Will Elam and the Bills young inexperienced secondary finally be exposed by Mahomes? 

 

(4) I think the Chiefs dare the Bills to run. 

 

This is going to be a great test. How many of us last night knew the Chiefs were going to win even when down 17-0? Chiefs just know how to win and are never out of a game. The Bills need a relentless pass rush all game long. This is why we got Von!

No

#4 is key. The raiders beat the chiefs deep last night but mostly because they can run the ball. We simply can’t run the ball so expect KC to play with deep coverage to stop josh from hitting Gabe. Have to be able to run some against the light boxes we are going to see. 

[Low Positive]

Are QB sacks illegal now? If you can't do what was called RTP in the Bucs game and you can do what was called RTP in the Chiefs game, what else can you do?  The Bills are going to be coming after Mahomes all game. They never blow the whistle for in the grasp for sacks on Mahomes because he keeps fighting to make plays so you have to bring him all the way down. If you can't spin him and you cant tackle him straight, how else can he be sacked? 

5 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

It’s hard to hit him cuz they’re running quick pick plays all game long.  

That's pretty much how the Pats got Edelman open on every play for years.

[newcam2012]

44 minutes ago, beebe said:

Where do the Chiefs have an advantage over the Bills? Anywhere? The Bills have a better overall pass offense. They have a better run defense. They have a better pass defense. They are more reliable in the kicking game with Butker out. The only area where KC is better is in the run game. But over the last 2.5 years, I can only think of one game where the Chiefs won primarily due to a run-first approach. It just so happened to be the game vs the Bills in 2020 (you could argue last week vs Bucs too, but Mahomes was pretty special in that one and did his fair share.) 

 

The 2020 game, the Chiefs followed the blueprint laid out by the Titans a week prior. Buffalo's run D was brutal. KC took advantage. The Bills addressed that issue, got better as the season wore on, and has since evolved into an elite unit. If the Chiefs try to go run heavy (I think there's a strong chance they do), the Bills will get enough early-down stops to force the 50/50 3rd-and-longs and will get off the field enough times. 

 

I just don't see KC's defense getting off the field once the Bills cross midfield. Buffalo is too hard to stop in four-down territory. 

 

Outside of Mahomes doing Mahomes things and Arrowhead Stadium magic, I just don't see KC being a serious threat here. I think the Bills get ahead early, maintain a lead throughout, and the Chiefs (if they play well) will keep it close but never seriously threaten. These teams are simply in different places right now. 

I disagree here. I believe that KC will be able to pressure Allen with Jones, Clark, and others. I have little confidence that the Bills can effectively run on KC. Thus, this game is on Allen's arm and legs. He is more than capable of carrying this team on his back. However, it's a tall task in Arrowhead. The fans and crowd noise is a huge advantage for KC. The Bills offense can't afford turnovers. 

 

Both teams really know each other well. The Bills run D is much improved. A healthy Phillips and company should prevent an effective KC running attack. Thus, the Bills can and hopefully can get to Mahomes. Just like Allen, Mahomes is so good and difficult to stop. Think 13 seconds...

 

I've been wavering back and fourth on who wins. I don't see a blowout. Both teams are just too well coached and both QBs will preform at an elite level. That means neither is likely to be stopped. Flip a coin here. Go Bills!!!! 

10 minutes ago, BeavercreekBillsFan said:

Some keys:

1. Frazier has to change things up. We can’t just play soft zone every time against these bums. Mahomes is just too good. The numbers say don’t blitz Mahomes but we need a wrinkle here and there. That said, we specifically paid Von to play in this game. Brown struggled last night against the speed of Chandler Jones, so Von needs to have the same impact. 

2. I don’t expect us to stop Mahomes much at all based on Fraziers track record against him. And Mahomes seems bored in most games but his eyes light up when it’s josh Allen on the other side. Because of that, we have to win a shootout in my opinion. This game will be won if Josh plays incredible again. The raiders showed the KC secondary is vulnerable so need to take advantage. 

 

3. Chris Jones in an absolute problem. Frank Clark too. They’ll get a sack or 2, but just can’t let those be strip sacks that give Mahomes a short field. 

4. A sneaky thing but Chavarious Ward is luckily gone now. He’s wrapped Diggs up the last few times and seems to be Diggs kryptonite with how handsy he is. Diggs needs to show up this time. He only had 3 catches for 7 yards in the divisional game in January. Hopefully ward being gone helps with that. The offense just works so much better when 14 is involved. 

5. chiefs ran the ball all over Tampa, so can we slow them down? They’ll want to run the ball to keep it from josh. Gotta man up and stop them and get josh the ball as much as possible. 
 

6. same is true for us also. We will see light boxes. Can we run the ball enough to keep the ball away from Mahomes? 
 

 

Great post. 

[Process]

 

[Logic]

The injury status of the Bills roster is the defining factor of this game, in my mind.

I am confident that if Buffalo has Poyer, Edmunds, Knox, and McKenzie on the field, they can win this game. 

If they are missing any or all of those guys, my confidence in a victory goes down significantly.

At the end of the day, I have the gnawing feeling that last year's script will be reversed: We'll drop this game to KC in the regular season (largely due to injury depletion and missing guys like Tre White), but then beat them in the playoffs. I'd take that trade-off.

One thing's for sure: This game very well may decide the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs. Big, big game.

[Awwufelloff]

Double Kelce win game. 

[mannc]

I would expect this game to pull the highest TV ratings of any non-prime time game all year. What a match-up!

[Airseven]

Mahomes against this banged up Bills secondary is appropriate for Halloween.

[Royale with Cheese]

9 minutes ago, Airseven said:

Mahomes against this banged up Bills secondary is appropriate for Halloween.

 

Remember when you said this?

 

On 10/9/2022 at 11:55 AM, Airseven said:

Probably an ugly one today with all these injuries. The danger with Pickett is he won’t hesitate to sling it downfield and put pressure on Bills D.

 

[co_springs_billsfan]

14 minutes ago, mannc said:

I would expect this game to pull the highest TV ratings of any non-prime time game all year. What a match-up!

How did NBC not choose this for SNF?

[Process]

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Remember when you said this?

 

 

Why do people respond to him and give him the attention he wants? Just ignore the clown. 

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, co_springs_billsfan said:

How did NBC not choose this for SNF?

Who knows?  I’m not sure how that stuff works.

[Greg S]

5 minutes ago, co_springs_billsfan said:

How did NBC not choose this for SNF?

 

I don't know how the scheduling works but if CBS was allowed to protect it as one of their games then you know they did. CBS has it (no surprise) as the national game this weekend.

[Big Turk]

25 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I disagree here. I believe that KC will be able to pressure Allen with Jones, Clark, and others. I have little confidence that the Bills can effectively run on KC. Thus, this game is on Allen's arm and legs. He is more than capable of carrying this team on his back. However, it's a tall task in Arrowhead. The fans and crowd noise is a huge advantage for KC. The Bills offense can't afford turnovers. 

 

Both teams really know each other well. The Bills run D is much improved. A healthy Phillips and company should prevent an effective KC running attack. Thus, the Bills can and hopefully can get to Mahomes. Just like Allen, Mahomes is so good and difficult to stop. Think 13 seconds...

 

I've been wavering back and fourth on who wins. I don't see a blowout. Both teams are just too well coached and both QBs will preform at an elite level. That means neither is likely to be stopped. Flip a coin here. Go Bills!!!! 

Great post. 

 

Bills likely can bust some edge runs if they use those...they are actually very good at them.  The issue is they like running up the middle too often which they suck at.  

 

Bills rank 9th in NFL in Average Line Yards on Left End runs, 7th in Right End Runs and 17th in Right Tackle Runs.  Left Tackle runs are not good at 30th and Middle runs are dead last at 32nd.

 

However, that actually plays into he strength of the Chiefs on run D as they excel at stopping outside runs, ranking 5th best on Left End runs and 8th best on Right End runs.  Their weakness is Left Tackle/Middle runs where they rank 29th and 26th. So basically the Bills will have to be better at what they do well than the Chiefs are at what they do well in terms of running.

[Awwufelloff]

The one good thing about this game is there is no one on their team that our DBS/Safetys can't keep up with. Hill was a gamebreaker. We can keep everything in front of us. 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Awwufelloff

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

22 minutes ago, Logic said:

The injury status of the Bills roster is the defining factor of this game, in my mind.

I am confident that if Buffalo has Poyer, Edmunds, Knox, and McKenzie on the field, they can win this game. 

If they are missing any or all of those guys, my confidence in a victory goes down significantly.

At the end of the day, I have the gnawing feeling that last year's script will be reversed: We'll drop this game to KC in the regular season (largely due to injury depletion and missing guys like Tre White), but then beat them in the playoffs. I'd take that trade-off.

One thing's for sure: This game very well may decide the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs. Big, big game.

 

Maybe?  KC did lose to indy 2 weeks ago, in a game where they had 2 short fields.  They've had kicking issues since butker went out but I'd still say that occaisionally they just don't show up all the way.  Its a long season - happens to pretty much everyone a few times.  

 

Plus teams occasionally put their best football out there specifically to play you. 

 

Just now, Awwufelloff said:

The one good thing about this game is there is no one on their team that our DBS/Safetys can't keep up with. Hill was a gamebreaker. 

 

Hardman is very fast, but i believe he's got a foot injury at the moment.  MVS is also very fast.  Both 4.3-4.4 guys.  But neither has Hill level speed or acceleration.  

[Chandler#81]

Rob F-Lyin’ Johnson! 😲