Russell Wilson’s new contract launches him to 2nd most QB guaranteed $

[machine gun kelly]

35 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

In his first 7 years, Wilson had 75 wins--the most inn NFL history for that span.  During that same period, he had a TD % of 6, second highest in the SB era, 2nd highest passing rating in NFL history, 4th highest passer rating for the previous27 seasons.

 

After that, he followed up with 11 and 12 wins seasons.  In 2017, he accounted for 37 of the team's 38 TDs--yet somehow was not named league MVP. Pro Bowl 9 of 10 seasons.  Back o back SB, 1 ring.

 

He is elite by any definition.  Herbert has to lead his team to a playoff appearance before he can enter the conversation. 

Spot on Weoster.  RW is elite, and now he has a solid defense, and some weapons.  Most importantly Hacket is opposite world from Carroll who’s stuck in the 80’s.

 

They are going to push KC and LAC.  Even the Raiders are going. To be better.  I read nothing into that preseason game.  RW never saw the field.

[Buffalo Boy]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

Allen out of the top 5 here (he’s 6)

    One of the douche Bills hater Panther fans wouldn’t shut up last year about how we over paid and couldn’t win a SB from here on out because we were cash strapped now…..

     😜😎

[Mr. WEO]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He did more than enough to lead his team to the playoffs last year. His coach and defense let him down big time. I think 32 out of 32 franchises would take Herbert over Wilson even if it was only for one season.

 

Because of their ages yes.

 

13 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Stafford also has a Super Bowl ring and Burrow was very close...just an Aaron Donald sack away.  I didn't see the full play but I heard Jamar Chase was separating downfield.  

 

Please don't take this I think Russ sucks, he's still a top 10 QB.  

 

 

Stafford only got a ring when he landed on a superteam. 

 

Wilson to the Broncos (who have a great Defense) has just made it harder for the Chargers to make the playoffs.

 

20 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

The Russ of 4 or 5 years ago, sure. But he looks like he’s already started to fall off. 

  see above

[Royale with Cheese]

6 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Wilson has led a top 10 scoring Offense 7 of 9 seasons. Seahawks D fell off the cliff starting in 2017--Wilson has carried that team, winning 11 and 12 games 2019, 2020.  Seahawks Offense top 10 3 of the past 4 seasons. He had 40 TDs in 2020--12 in the second half when they went 6-2. 

 

2 seasons of racking up regular season stats doesn't make a QB elite.  

 

Seattle's defense was 9th in defensive scoring in 2017.  Followed by 13th, 19th, 16th and 12th.  

 

Herberts was 3rd worst last year at 27 points per game and then 23rd at 26.6 ppg.  

 

The Chargers defense has been terrible for Herbert, about average for Wilson.

 

It's not just the 2 seasons, its the trajectory.  I would say the vast majority of GM's would take Herbert over Wilson right now.

Herbert is just now entering his prime....just like Allen and Burrow.  

 

 

[dpberr]

Not every QB ages like Tom Brady.  That's a lot of money for a 34 year old quarterback on a new team with Nate Hackett calling the shots.  Risky.  

 

The Ravens are not going to offer Lamar Jackson a long term contract.  I think they are content to let him be a free agent.  

[KDIGGZ]

in looking at those numbers, my first 5 thoughts -

1. we got a heck of a deal for Josh

2. Lamar Jackson is going to get overpaid

3. the Browns, Cards, Broncos are desperate/stupid

4. the Browns are really really stupid when you factor in that it also cost them 3 first round picks

5. Watson is a trash human being so how stupid are the Browns?

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Stafford only got a ring when he landed on a superteam. 

 

The 2013 Seahawks weren't a Super Team?  It was one of the greatest defenses of all time.  

They shutdown the highest scoring offense in NFL history...shut them down. 

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Seattle's defense was 9th in defensive scoring in 2017.  Followed by 13th, 19th, 16th and 12th.  

 

Herberts was 3rd worst last year at 27 points per game and then 23rd at 26.6 ppg.  

 

The Chargers defense has been terrible for Herbert, about average for Wilson.

 

It's not just the 2 seasons, its the trajectory.  I would say the vast majority of GM's would take Herbert over Wilson right now.

Herbert is just now entering his prime....just like Allen and Burrow.  

 

 

 

Yes, from "elite/best ever" to mediocre/bottom half.  Yet Seahawks were still winning 11-12 games. 

 

Given their ages, teams would take Herbert.   But that doesn't make Wilson no longer elite.  He's on a much better team now than that sinking ship in Seattle.  

[dollars 2 donuts]

@YoloinOhio

 

Yolo, you are witch with getting this stuff out first.

 

The early bird catches the worm my a**.  The one who deals in the dark arts, and makes deals with the cloven footed master rules the day.

 

Nicely done...Oh Prince of Darkness/Bills Fan.

 

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Because of their ages yes.

 

No, that's why I said even if only for one season. The only thing Herbert is missing is longevity. Unless his level of play suddenly takes a nosedive he is already in the elite group of QBs. Wilson is a great QB but he's a tier below Herbert. Wilson on the Chargers last year wouldn't have been a playoff team.

[mushypeaches]

I don't understand why the Broncos made this move right now other than the desire to lock things up and have some cost control while QB contracts keep going up

 

But with Wilson's current contract not even expiring until the end of 2023, if I'm the Broncos, I want to see this guy on the field and go through the 2022 season before throwing all this money at a 34 year old QB.  Again, I get that you already committed all of the draft capital to the trade and don't want to see a guy walk after 2 years, but I'm on the side of hedging my bets with Russell Wilson

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Yes, from "elite/best ever" to mediocre/bottom half.  Yet Seahawks were still winning 11-12 games. 

 

Given their ages, teams would take Herbert.   But that doesn't make Wilson no longer elite.  He's on a much better team now than that sinking ship in Seattle.  

I agree, Wilson can still be an elite QB.  He wasn’t the last 1.5 years…. But on this Denver team, he may again be great.

 

that said, if you could take one qb for the 2022 season only, would you take Wilson over Herbert?  Age has nothing to do with one season, I’d still take Herbert.  

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, nucci said:

why, it's just money. Probably an out after 2 or 3 years. Wait till details come out first

 

It has to be longer than 2-3 years for an out.  The deal has $165M guaranteed.  These contracts always have more money guaranteed

if he is on the team every year after the first 5 days into each season.

 

Mahomes and Josh's contracts already have a lot more guaranteed than when they signed.

An example is Mahomes this year.  He had another $33M in future guarantees levied this March.

Josh has the same type of deal, but it is for a lot less future money guaranteed.

 

Like you said we need to see the details, but I see 4 years minimum for an out.

[Freddie's Dead]

I'll keep saying it.  We stole Josh Allen.

[Sestak4ever]

Hard to believe that Goff and Wentz are in the top 10 guaranteed list. Who will we be saying that about in the next 2 - 3 years?

[nucci]

Just now, ColoradoBills said:

 

It has to be longer than 2-3 years for an out.  The deal has $165M guaranteed.  These contracts always have more money guaranteed

if he is on the team every year after the first 5 days into each season.

 

Mahomes and Josh's contracts already have a lot more guaranteed than when they signed.

An example is Mahomes this year.  He had another $33M in future guarantees levied this March.

Josh has the same type of deal, but it is for a lot less future money guaranteed.

 

Like you said we need to see the details, but I see 4 years minimum for an out.

he's good for 4 years.

Just now, Freddie's Dead said:

I'll keep saying it.  We stole Josh Allen.

No we didn't. Paid market price at the time

[aristocrat]

What's the over under on Josh's career earnings? 600 mil?  More like 750 maybe

[Freddie's Dead]

2 minutes ago, nucci said:

No we didn't. Paid market price at the time

 

We paid below market, and every QB contract that comes along after that bears it out.

[buffaloboyinATL]

I am happy that teams are not feeling pressured to match the ridiculous contract that Cleveland gave the serial molester.  

 

The Ravens will eventually end up having to give Lamar WAY more guaranteed money than they are comfortable with.  His style of play does not seem conducive to long term sustainability.  When his body starts to wear down, he will be impacted more than most. (but I sure he will be able to give them a few good years first)

[nucci]

Just now, Freddie's Dead said:

 

We paid below market, and every QB contract that comes along after that bears it out.

No we didn't. Every contract that comes out will always be bigger than previous one. Wait till 3 years when he gets a new restructured one

[Process]

3 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

I'll keep saying it.  We stole Josh Allen.

Prices go up, it's how it's always been. The best players are no longer the highest paid players. 

 

At the time we signed him he was the second highest paid player in the league with I believe the most gtd money in NFL history.

 

The timing ended up being great but it wasn't a "steal." 

[buffaloboyinATL]

6 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

I'll keep saying it.  We stole Josh Allen.

I think saying we stole him, implies that we somehow fooled him into this contract. I personally believe that he consciously wanted to make sure we could afford to put the necessary pieces around him to have a larger window of opportunity.  

[C.Biscuit97]

He’s a big weirdo but Denver is a lock for their over in wins. Also, Sutton is going to have a big year. 

Just now, Gene1973 said:

Yikes. He hasn't even played a game for them yet...

 

I feel one of the teams in that division is going to fall on their face this season. KC or DEN, not sure which one it will be.

Guy, though a weirdo, might be a 1st ballot hall of famer. It’s not like locking up Daniel Jones.

10 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

I'll keep saying it.  We stole Josh Allen.

Yeah, only $258 million. Highway robbery. Surprise the franchise isn’t in prison for that “fleecing.”

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

I think saying we stole him, implies that we somehow fooled him into this contract. I personally believe that he consciously wanted to make sure we could afford to put the necessary pieces around him to have a larger window of opportunity.  

 

I think both Beane and Allen were comfortable locking it down when they did, both likely knowing the price of waiting.  So I think Josh took a "slight" bit less and Beane jumped on getting the deal done with the foresight of the coming QB market.  

[YoloinOhio]

 

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, Freddie's Dead said:

ut

We paid below market, and every QB contract that comes along after that bears it out.

 

I agree.  It's not just AAV.  The structure of Josh's contract is very team friendly as compared to Mahomes and of course all

these fully/almost fully guaranteed contracts.  I really was amazed that after the 2025 season Josh has another 3 years left

and they are "pay as you go" with the dead cap.  His contract begs to use restructuring (especially his big 2025 hit).  

Allen's cap hits for 2027 and 2028 are $40M and $41M respectively!

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I agree.  It's not just AAV.  The structure of Josh's contract is very team friendly as compared to Mahomes and of course all

these fully/almost fully guaranteed contracts.  I really was amazed that after the 2025 season Josh has another 3 years left

and they are "pay as you go" with the dead cap.  His contract begs to use restructuring (especially his big 2025 hit).  

Allen's cap hits for 2027 and 2028 are $40M and $41M respectively!

These contracts will all be re worked in the upcoming years. Nfl contracts are extremely fluid. 

[Mr. WEO]

11 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I agree, Wilson can still be an elite QB.  He wasn’t the last 1.5 years…. But on this Denver team, he may again be great.

 

that said, if you could take one qb for the 2022 season only, would you take Wilson over Herbert?  Age has nothing to do with one season, I’d still take Herbert.  

 

 

I've agreed twice that everyone would take Herbert.

 

Herbert's Chargers lost 3 of 4 at the end of the season--including to Houston.  In two of those games, his completion % was in the 50's and his rating in the 80's.  He had 5 games with a single TD and at least 1 INT--they lost 4 of those games.

[Freddie's Dead]

11 minutes ago, nucci said:

No we didn't. Every contract that comes out will always be bigger than previous one. Wait till 3 years when he gets a new restructured one

 

It wasn't just that they were bigger, it was by how much.  Dave Mason time, nucc' 😉

 

11 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

I think saying we stole him, implies that we somehow fooled him into this contract. I personally believe that he consciously wanted to make sure we could afford to put the necessary pieces around him to have a larger window of opportunity.  

 

I say "stole" because Josh was worth at least $45M AAV, and the Bills got him for $42M AAV, saving at least 15M over the life of the contract.  It was a win for all sides, but a really fantastic contract for the Bills.

[BarleyNY]

33 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Because of their ages yes.

 

 

Stafford only got a ring when he landed on a superteam. 

 

Wilson to the Broncos (who have a great Defense) has just made it harder for the Chargers to make the playoffs.

 

  see above

My issue is not with Wilson QBing the Broncos in the near term. That makes sense. My issue is the Broncos tying themselves to him for 4-5 seasons. He’ll be 34 in November and I don’t think he has the physical stature to last that long.  I think he can eek out a couple more good years, but he’s already showing signs of falling off. One caveat: we have not seen contract details yet. It might not be quite as bad as it seems. 

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, BarleyNY said:

My issue is not with Wilson QBing the Broncos in the near term. That makes sense. My issue is the Broncos tying themselves to him for 4-5 seasons. He’ll be 34 in November and I don’t think he has the physical stature to last that long.  I think he can eek out a couple more good years, but he’s already showing signs of falling off. One caveat: we have not seen contract details yet. It might not be quite as bad as it seems. 

 

He is on a better team now.  His "falling off" is overstated.

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

These contracts will all be re worked in the upcoming years. Nfl contracts are extremely fluid. 

 

Not totally sure what you mean by re-worked but I can see Josh starting to restructure next March to help with cap hits.

His contract has a lot of flexibility that Beane can use until this new TV deal is done and the future cap $s are known.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

My ranking of the elite QBs

1. Allen

2. Rodgers

3. Mahomes 

4. Herbert

5. Brady

6. Wilson

7. Burrow 

 

There are other guys that can consistently win and a handful of young guys that it is too soon to know how good or bad the will be. 

I would not be shocked if Brady is off this list by mid-season.  He has skill players but now has a suspect o-line. That is not good at his age even with his quick release and ability to slide in the pocket. 

[HOUSE]

Kudos to rhe Seahawks, they saw this deal  coming and they were smart enough to get out

[NewEra]

43 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

I've agreed twice that everyone would take Herbert.

 

Herbert's Chargers lost 3 of 4 at the end of the season--including to Houston.  In two of those games, his completion % was in the 50's and his rating in the 80's.  He had 5 games with a single TD and at least 1 INT--they lost 4 of those games.

Sorry, I must’ve missed it, I just looked at the last page and agreed, also stating that she had something to do with it

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

This Kyler Murray contract is going to hurt the Cards for years.  

 

And he will probably do a Deshaun Watson and demand to be traded after first year on new contract.

[Taro Nimbus]

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Allen out of the top 5 here (he’s 6)

Kylar getting 49 million a year is laughable. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Gene1973 said:

Yikes. He hasn't even played a game for them yet...

 

I feel one of the teams in that division is going to fall on their face this season. KC or DEN, not sure which one it will be.

 

Broncos were 7-10 last season.....

[ALF]

That's why they wanted Sam Martin to take a pay cut , thanks Russ 🙂

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

He is on a better team now.  His "falling off" is overstated.

Time will tell. Really depends on how much his play falls off while he’s still got big guarantees.