Bills vs Pats: “pound for pound” teams analysis

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, PatsFanNH said:

I’d take Baremore over both those guys.

 

I like Barmore. I liked him coming out. Ed Oliver has been outstanding this year though.

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

8 minutes ago, P Riv said:

 

Fact is we have Allen and Diggs, they seem to have everything else.  

 

Do you honestly believe that Buffalo has only 2 players that are better than their NE counterparts?  I’ve seen some sad opinions from “Bills fans”, but this is over the top bad. 

[DCbillsfan]

I believe the game comes down to what Bills team shows up.  If they avoid stupid penalties and protect the ball they should win.  The Pats are well coached and don't beat themselves.  They are also pretty good at causing turnovers.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, P Riv said:

They have an all star LB Corps, maybe best in the league, and you give us the edge?  lol  

Hightower, van Noy, and Collins probably have more playoff experience than our whole roster and they're the main reason(s) that defense is playing the way it is.  

 

Fact is we have Allen and Diggs, they seem to have everything else.  

 

The Patriots have been playing good D, but C’mon man.  

 

We all know that a player’s experience and playoff experience in the past do not mean marvelous play this season.  Bad argument.  

[RunTheBall]

It’s simple. If we play disciplined football (penalties and turnovers) and our O-line holds up to a reasonable level, we win. Pats capitalize on turnovers and rarely make them. If Allen gets hit/pressured early he can be rattled. I don’t think he trusts his offensive line so his internal clock has sped up.

[Wyobills89]

Will Allen truck van noy again? 

[PatsFanNH]

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The Patriots have been playing good D, but C’mon man.  

 

We all know that a player’s experience and playoff experience in the past do not mean marvelous play this season.  Bad argument.  

I’d still give the Pats the edge at LB.. especially when you add in Judon and with any luck Uche finally be back as well.  A really top tier LB core top 3 in the league.. 

2 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

It’s simple. If we play disciplined football (penalties and turnovers) and our O-line holds up to a reasonable level, we win. Pats capitalize on turnovers and rarely make them. If Allen gets hit/pressured early he can be rattled. I don’t think he trusts his offensive line so his internal clock has sped up.

This is true for both teams, I dare say more true for the one playing a rookie QB.   I think health play a key role in the game as well. Baremore and Judon a bit banged up and they are providing a lot of the pressure with Van Noy and Collins.

[Rockinon]

The Bills defense is still leading the league in many categories. NE has a strong defense but they are not the better D. And our offense is better. Maybe you can argue some players or positions are better, but no one is playing better team D than Buffalo. If NE wins the next game perhaps I can concede that argument because I also believe Buffalo has the better offense. Until then, Bills win and it ain't even close.

[finn]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The oline isn't "edge" Patriots. That is a landslide Patriots. 

Which makes you wonder if this one yawning difference is enough to tip the balance to the Patriots. I'd say no, but it's only because the Bills have a better team otherwise (or even) across the board. Our O-line, at least with Mongo and Brown out, may be historically bad, as in a NFL Films special or a Ripley's Believe It Or Not episode, or an exhibit at Madame Tussaud's House of Wax. No one element on the Pats is anywhere near that bad. That the Bills can STILL win is a testament to how good the team is otherwise. 

[97bills]

2 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

What i saw this season till now about Allen, is that he seems always not comfortable like he was last year. I mean, he doesn’t give me the feeling that he’s always in control. He had lot of picks, poor throws, like if he was hesitant on what to do. 
Maybe because our weak OL, maybe because with Diggs, Sander and Bease all together on the field, he is not sure who to hit. I don’t really know… maybe i’m totally wrong, but this is what i see. That said, i still believe Josh is a top 5 QB without question. 
 

To me Bease is a beast, one of the best slot receiver in the nfl, Wes Welker level and we have Knox that is a heck of TE… so use them more in short routes !

I believe Allen’s nerves get the best of him too, look at the two games at the end of last year against NE and Miami, Allen was super star great because those two games really didn’t mean much and he played lose. I think that’s the key getting him settled down quickly. But one day his got to figure it out before kickoff. Be like Adam rank and CHILL BRO !!!! 

[P Riv]

45 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The Patriots have been playing good D, but C’mon man.  

 

We all know that a player’s experience and playoff experience in the past do not mean marvelous play this season.  Bad argument.  

 

Bad take on my argument.  This season their LB's have been turning in "marvelous" play and a lot of that has to do with experience in general, and experience in that particular system.  They have the number one scoring defense and just held a quality opponent to under their season average  which dropped it a little more. 

Add Judon to the other 3 guys with all the hardware on their fingers and you have one of the best LB units in the game.  It's not a mystery why they were great in 2018, 2019, sucked in 2020, now they're great again with all those guys back in the fold.  Track record speaks for itself, not the individual stats, that team doesn't work like that.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

28 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

I’d still give the Pats the edge at LB.. especially when you add in Judon and with any luck Uche finally be back as well.  A really top tier LB core top 3 in the league.. 

 

TBH, I haven’t watched a lot of the Pats games - primarily two of them, today vs the Titans, and two weeks ago vs. the Browns.  

How many and which of the Bills games have you watched?

 

I somewhat don’t understand the comparison.  The Bills are nominally a 3-4 D but in actuality live in Nickel, meaning they play only 2 LB almost every snap.

How do you compare the LB in that defense to the 3-4 D the Patriots play, where the expected role of the LBs is so different?

 

28 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

This is true for both teams, I dare say more true for the one playing a rookie QB.   I think health play a key role in the game as well. Baremore and Judon a bit banged up and they are providing a lot of the pressure with Van Noy and Collins.

 

A key question for the Bills is, do we get Lotulelei, Brown, and Feliciano back?  And if we do, who do we get back - the same player that went out?  Rested and reinvigorated?  A shadow of their former selves struggling to return to form?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, P Riv said:

 

Bad take on my argument.  This season their LB's have been turning in "marvelous" play and a lot of that has to do with experience in general, and experience in that particular system.  They have the number one scoring defense and just held a quality opponent to under their season average  which dropped it a little more. 

Add Judon to the other 3 guys with all the hardware on their fingers and you have one of the best LB units in the game.  It's not a mystery why they were great in 2018, 2019, sucked in 2020, now they're great again with all those guys back in the fold.  Track record speaks for itself, not the individual stats, that team doesn't work like that.  

 

Dude, it’s “on you” to make a good argument and state it clearly.  If your argument is that their LBs have been playing lights-out this season and have a lot of experience in this system, that’s fine - but that’s not what you said (or reiterated above, in the form of “all the hardware on their fingers” - as someone on the SB years Steelers said “take those off and put them on the shelf, boys, they won’t help us this year”)

 

AS far as “number one scoring defense”, the Patriots are allowing an average of 15.3 PPG after today.  The Bills are allowing an average of 15.2 PPG.  🤷‍♂️

 

I’m puzzled by the reference to “individual stats”, since I did not mention individual stats.  Is this a pure straw man, or are you responding to someone else without the extra work of quoting them?

[Jpsredemption]

Pats are the better team right now. Let’s not kid ourselves. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, Jpsredemption said:

Pats are the better team right now. Let’s not kid ourselves. 

 

Should we just forfeit then, or is it worth it for us to show up?

[Success]

1 minute ago, Jpsredemption said:

Pats are the better team right now. Let’s not kid ourselves. 

 

They've been winning more lately. 

 

Better team?

 

Nope.

 

[Jeffbigalls]

3 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

Here we are ! After this last Pats win, i want to compare the Bills and the Pats in every aspect and see what you think about.

 

- HC: pats

- QB: Bills

- RB: pats (with Brida maybe even)

- OL: pats

- DL: bills

- WR corps: Bills

- CORNERS & SAFETIES: Bills

- KICKER: Bills

- SP TEAM: even ?

 

Maybe i forgot to consider some other aspect, if so feel free to add or correct me. That’s the way i see things in this next matchup. To me, the most important thing McDermott and Daboll have to do, is to find a way to give Josh more time to throw and involve Knox much more, because to me Knox is not at Gronk or Kelce level, but to me is a very good TE. 

 

Lol with brieda even...not a chance

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Great analysis and I don't disagree with the comments..

Except the game comes down to only two people. Allen and McDermott.  The rest is just window dressing. The NFL ceased being a team game long ago. Its a QB, a HC, and 52 support people. 

Believe in Allen! He's our only hope!!!

[george c]

Bills are softer..period.

It’s possible the loss of Tre may finally wake them up. 

[Maine-iac]

I think the comparison that'll make the biggest difference is execution and mistakes and the Pats don't usually lose in those departments.  If we execute better and make less mistakes there's no doubt in my mind we win against the Pats but our recent history makes me think we have to get better.

[hondo in seattle]

4 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

Your honest prediction ? Gimme your cut. Mine is 65/35 Bills. 

 

Right now, 538's ELO system is giving the Bills a 56% chance of winning the game.  

[Maine-iac]

5 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

Here we are ! After this last Pats win, i want to compare the Bills and the Pats in every aspect and see what you think about.

 

- HC: pats

- QB: Bills

- RB: pats (with Brida maybe even)

- OL: pats

- DL: bills

- WR corps: Bills

- CORNERS & SAFETIES: Bills

- KICKER: Bills

- SP TEAM: even ?

 

Maybe i forgot to consider some other aspect, if so feel free to add or correct me. That’s the way i see things in this next matchup. To me, the most important thing McDermott and Daboll have to do, is to find a way to give Josh more time to throw and involve Knox much more, because to me Knox is not at Gronk or Kelce level, but to me is a very good TE. 

 

Coach goes to Pats but McDermott is good.

QB goes to us but Jones is well coached has only thrown two picks in the last 4 games to Allen's 7.

RB might not be a strong plus for the Pats the run game is better blocked and utilized by the Pats.

WRs & TEs  We have far more talent especially at WR but execution here is key.

OL Pats

DL Seems like this should be us but the Pats get to the QB more and are solid against the run.

CBs & Safeties  Again normally this would be us but without Tre this is much closer and possibly even goes to them.  We have better coverage safeties and the Pats have much better hitters.  Their best corner is better than anyone we will be starting at corner.

K goes to us

SP TEAMS when was the last time the Pats had a punt blocked for a TD or fumbled a kickoff?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Right now, 538's ELO system is giving the Bills a 56% chance of winning the game.  

 

What is 538’s prediction record?

[ngbills]

With Breida? Haha. The guy barely plays. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We have one of the worst RB groups in the league. 

[Joe Ferguson]

-Refs: Patriots times a million. 

[DrPJax]

7 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

Thanks for your correction. DL Pats ? Even with our full healthy DL ?

Yes, we have no one close to Judon this year producing sacks.  Pressure is not the same as a sack taking someone out of fg range or putting the o behind the chains with lost yardage.    

[Italian Bills]

5 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

It’s simple. If we play disciplined football (penalties and turnovers) and our O-line holds up to a reasonable level, we win. Pats capitalize on turnovers and rarely make them. If Allen gets hit/pressured early he can be rattled. I don’t think he trusts his offensive line so his internal clock has sped up.

Very good point: the very first two or three possessions will be crucial in the game outcome. 

[LABILLBACKER]

8 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

You forgot LB

 

- HC: Edge Pats

- QB:  Edge Bills

- RB: Slight edge Pats

- OL: Edge Pats

- DL: Slight Edge Pats

- LB: Edge Bills

- WR corps:  Big Edge Bills

- CORNERS & SAFETIES: Slight Edge Bills

- KICKER: Edge Bills

- SP TEAM: Even

 

Kicker: Dead even

Safeties: Bills

Corners: Pats (w/o Tre)

....everything else spot on

[Putin]

F Mac Jones that funny looking biotch 

[Nelius]

No TE comparison? I'm assuming it's lumped into receivers but that's going to be one of the premier match-ups this week in my opinion.

 

What TE currently leads the NFL in TD receptions? It's not Kittle, Waller, Kelce, or even Mark Andrews - it's a tie between Hunter Henry and Dawson Knox with 7. I expect one of them to hit the end zone Monday night, if not both. I really expect Knox to go off and claim the title of best TE in the AFC East.

[Da webster guy]

Mac is Mr Dink and Dunk.   If we put him in a situation where he has to start slinging it on the run or under pocket pressure, he will show that he can't make all the throws necessary to come from behind against a good D.

 

Overall I wasn't super impressed with NE today, but Judon can go Von Miller and wreck your game plan if we can't handle the guy,   Good Interior Dline too.  

 

Their RB's keep getting tons of press but all three of them are average dudes, like our three really.   Nod to us for home field, Josh, better receivers and safeties.   They have a better pass rush, and Bill is a better game coach than McD.

 

Bills 23-Pats 20

[Italian Bills]

6 hours ago, Joe Ferguson said:

-Refs: Patriots times a million. 

Please.. don’t get to this point… if we play our A game and cut stupid mistakes, we have great chances to win the game beside the refs. But i feel you… maybe McDermott must consider to be less amenable if something happen. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Josh is by far a more talented player but to me this will come down to him making the right choices.  Punting vs forcing a throw.   Taking a fg instead of holding the ball and taking a bad sack.   
 

the pats will try and frustrate him which is when he is apt to make mistakes.  

[Mr. K]

Biggest game is on Monday. We will see what both teams are made of. Hopefully the Saints game provided enough juice to the offense to be on track. The defense is a wait and see for me. Hopefully with a solid team effort they can play close to what we expect from them in the pass. I would imagine the pats* are going to try and run the ball as much as possible and be diligent with their shots. Maybe you see more corner blitz this week. Should be a good one. Go Bills

[Eastport bills]

16 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

Here we are ! After this last Pats win, i want to compare the Bills and the Pats in every aspect and see what you think about.

 

- HC: pats

- QB: Bills

- RB: pats (with Brida maybe even)

- OL: pats

- DL: bills

- WR corps: Bills

- CORNERS & SAFETIES: Bills

- KICKER: Bills

- SP TEAM: even ?

 

Maybe i forgot to consider some other aspect, if so feel free to add or correct me. That’s the way i see things in this next matchup. To me, the most important thing McDermott and Daboll have to do, is to find a way to give Josh more time to throw and involve Knox much more, because to me Knox is not at Gronk or Kelce level, but to me is a 

Pats are a net equal on defense after Tre's departure. They are better at corner and at least equal with their front 7. We have great safeties, which are our clear advantage. The offenses are tough to compare. Obviously we are better at QB and wideouts, but they have a clear edge at O-line and RBs with Harris and their TEs with Smith and Henry. That leaves coaching and judging from the way the teams are trending, sadly that's a big one in the Pat's column. I like our STs with Bass and our coverage group. Looking like a nail biter with the turnover battle being crucial. 

[jletha]

16 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Screaming Eagle

Not in the wine sense haha

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

10 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Coach goes to Pats but McDermott is good.

QB goes to us but Jones is well coached has only thrown two picks in the last 4 games to Allen's 7.

RB might not be a strong plus for the Pats the run game is better blocked and utilized by the Pats.

WRs & TEs  We have far more talent especially at WR but execution here is key.

OL Pats

DL Seems like this should be us but the Pats get to the QB more and are solid against the run.

CBs & Safeties  Again normally this would be us but without Tre this is much closer and possibly even goes to them.  We have better coverage safeties and the Pats have much better hitters.  Their best corner is better than anyone we will be starting at corner.

K goes to us

SP TEAMS when was the last time the Pats had a punt blocked for a TD or fumbled a kickoff?

 

They've had 2 punts blocked this season, neither were for TDs and 0 points were scored from them.

[T master]

They had better hope the D comes to play because the Pats have been running the ball good & their D has been doing their job really well if they play like they have been and the Bills play the way they have i hate to say it but i don't see the Bills coming away with a win .

 

They may even get swept this year if they don't step up their game because when they play good teams they seem to forget how to play good football .

[PatsFanNH]

11 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Coach goes to Pats but McDermott is good.

QB goes to us but Jones is well coached has only thrown two picks in the last 4 games to Allen's 7.

RB might not be a strong plus for the Pats the run game is better blocked and utilized by the Pats.

WRs & TEs  We have far more talent especially at WR but execution here is key.

OL Pats

DL Seems like this should be us but the Pats get to the QB more and are solid against the run.

CBs & Safeties  Again normally this would be us but without Tre this is much closer and possibly even goes to them.  We have better coverage safeties and the Pats have much better hitters.  Their best corner is better than anyone we will be starting at corner.

K goes to us

SP TEAMS when was the last time the Pats had a punt blocked for a TD or fumbled a kickoff?

Had 2 punts blocked early this year, I do believe one went for a TD. 
 

DL — I as a Pats fan am nervous about the run after yesterday. They got gashed and if it wasn’t for TO the game is a lot closer.

 

WR - hands down not even close Buffalo

 

TE — Knox and Henry are a push and Jones is definitely better than your second TE. 

[Big Turk]

18 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

Here we are ! After this last Pats win, i want to compare the Bills and the Pats in every aspect and see what you think about.

 

- HC: pats

- QB: Bills

- RB: pats (with Brida maybe even)

- OL: pats

- DL: bills

- WR corps: Bills

- CORNERS & SAFETIES: Bills

- KICKER: Bills

- SP TEAM: even ?

 

Maybe i forgot to consider some other aspect, if so feel free to add or correct me. That’s the way i see things in this next matchup. To me, the most important thing McDermott and Daboll have to do, is to find a way to give Josh more time to throw and involve Knox much more, because to me Knox is not at Gronk or Kelce level, but to me is a very good TE. 

 

 

I think with the loss of White Corners and Safeties are at best a push, and maybe even favor the Patriots.

12 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Coach goes to Pats but McDermott is good.

QB goes to us but Jones is well coached has only thrown two picks in the last 4 games to Allen's 7.

RB might not be a strong plus for the Pats the run game is better blocked and utilized by the Pats.

WRs & TEs  We have far more talent especially at WR but execution here is key.

OL Pats

DL Seems like this should be us but the Pats get to the QB more and are solid against the run.

CBs & Safeties  Again normally this would be us but without Tre this is much closer and possibly even goes to them.  We have better coverage safeties and the Pats have much better hitters.  Their best corner is better than anyone we will be starting at corner.

K goes to us

SP TEAMS when was the last time the Pats had a punt blocked for a TD or fumbled a kickoff?

 

They just have up almost 300 yards rushing to the Titans without Derrick Henry. Come again with their solid run D...

1 hour ago, PatsFanNH said:

Had 2 punts blocked early this year, I do believe one went for a TD. 
 

DL — I as a Pats fan am nervous about the run after yesterday. They got gashed and if it wasn’t for TO the game is a lot closer.

 

WR - hands down not even close Buffalo

 

TE — Knox and Henry are a push and Jones is definitely better than your second TE. 

 

I think you mean Jonnu Smith and not Jones at TE?

 

Always liked him with Tennessee...dude gashed us for like 75 yards on a TE screen once...super athletic and very fast.

 

Luckily for you, we can't run the ball well, and usually don't try very hard once we see it's not working.

 

I'm extremely worried that the Pats secondary will do a good enough job to force Allen to hold the ball and the DLine will get lots of pressure...and I really really HATE  Van Noy with the Pats...just an annoying guy that always seems to make big plays and is around the ball...definitely wasn't used properly in Miami.

 

But...that being said...I like McD's track record against rookie QBs...

Edited November 29, 2021 by Big Turk