2017 Re-Draft - What would you do?

[YoloinOhio]

Thinking about this a lot for the last 13-14 months or so… your thoughts?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I love Allen but think of all the other picks and players they could have had if they just stayed at 10 in 2017 and taken Mahommes. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

4 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I love Allen but think of all the other picks and players they could have had if they just stayed at 10 in 2017 and taken Mahommes. 

Let me clarify. Mahommes is on a HOF trajectory. Any other pick at 10 in 2017 even Watson and I dont revisit history. But to deny Mahommes is something special is nuts.  Of course the other variable is Andy Reid.

[Rc2catch]

I’m still on the Mahomes is never the Mahomes we have seen if buffalo even drafts him. We might of passed at 10. I was always ok with it. I don’t get too worked up on that stuff. Mahomes landed in the right spot for him, plenty of quarterbacks as talented as he is landed in bad spots and didn’t perform. 

[Stank_Nasty]

1 minute ago, Rc2catch said:

I’m still on the Mahomes is never the Mahomes we have seen if buffalo even drafts him. We might of passed at 10. I was always ok with it. I don’t get too worked up on that stuff. Mahomes landed in the right spot for him, plenty of quarterbacks as talented as he is landed in bad spots and didn’t perform. 

Mahomes ain’t passing for 50 tds throwing to Kelvin “the chest freezer” benjiman and Andre “special teams ace” Holmes. And he ain’t winning a Super Bowl in 2019 with brown and Beasley as his top wr’s. The dude was thrust into a PERFECT situation and, to his credit, he capitalized on it. The shine is wearing off and the prayer heaves are getting picked. 

[Solomon Grundy]

52 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Thinking about this a lot for the last 13-14 months or so… your thoughts?

Is Rex Ryan still the HC? 

[BaaadThingsMan]

Give me White and Allen every time.

 

Josh will prove out to be the better of the two when they are both retired. 

[RyanC883]

A top cb and top qb over just a top qb.  And Mahomes had a great supporting cast on the sb winning team.  

[78thealltimegreat]

Patrick is a nice guy but Josh is Buffalo and that’s just as important as the player add to that you get 1 of the top 5 CBS in the game and I think the right decision was made….and I don’t care if we had Johnny Unitas in his prime no one was winning with that receiving corps Josh had to play with as a rookie 

[BADOLBILZ]

 

 

Andy Reid was best known as a playoff choker and terrible game clock manager and the Chiefs fanbase was ready to move on from him..........until he got this guy.

 

No reason to believe that the Bills wouldn't have won a SB with Mahomes by now unless you think McBeane are otherwise incompetent. 

 

I was a fan of the Josh Allen selection but it's idiotic to suggest that trading Mahomes to a division/AFC rival was anything but a mistake.    Even for a very good cornerback and the primary asset used to acquire Tremaine Edmunds.   

 

Mahomes literally just defeated the Bills in the most recent AFCCG...........until the Bills win a SB with Allen it's not even a point of contention.

[947]

I'm surprised there's even a single vote for Mahomes over Josh/Tre.

 

If we would've drafted Mahomes, he'd have been thrown into the fire day 1 & wouldn't have had near the success he has in KC. Then he'd have asked for a trade when contract #2 came up, and we'd have traded him for a 1st rounder, then been forced to start over and take Mac Jones in the 2021 draft. We'd be the same old Bills for eternity without that trade in 2017. Josh Allen is our destiny.

 

Where we really effed up the 2017 Draft was taking Zay in Round 2. Could've had our pick of Kupp, Godwin, Kamara, or Dalvin Cook.

Edited October 25, 2021 by 947

[Scott7975]

13 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Andy Reid was best known as a playoff choker and terrible game clock manager and the Chiefs fanbase was ready to move on from him..........until he got this guy.

 

No reason to believe that the Bills wouldn't have won a SB with Mahomes by now unless you think McBeane are otherwise incompetent. 

 

I was a fan of the Josh Allen selection but it's idiotic to suggest that trading Mahomes to a division/AFC rival was anything but a mistake.    Even for a very good cornerback and the primary asset used to acquire Tremaine Edmunds.   

 

Mahomes literally just defeated the Bills in the most recent AFCCG...........until the Bills win a SB with Allen it's not even a point of contention.

 

There is no saying but it's doubtful IMO.  Mahomes won the SB the year he had a top 10 defense, an offensive line, Hill, Kelce, and a top 10 running game.  When have the Bills had all that at the same time?  I guess you could make a case that Mahomes could have won against KC last season but would KC be there?  Maybe the Titans are and they shut down our hobbled receivers too.  I won't say that Mahomes wouldn't have won a SB here, but I still think its unlikely.

 

Also, Reid had a 10 win season, two 11 win seasons, and a 12 win season while going to the playoffs 3 times without Mahomes.  Mahomes walked into a stellar situation there.  Mahomes here would have walked into a dumpster fire at skill positions on offense with Rick Dennison as his OC.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Let me clarify. Mahommes is on a HOF trajectory. 

As is Allen. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

26 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

No reason to believe that the Bills wouldn't have won a SB with Mahomes by now unless you think McBeane are otherwise incompetent. 

 

 

 

No reason?  

 

How about KB, Robert Foster, Charles Clay, Zay Jones a.k.a. complete tear down and rebuild on the horizon. I think that is a pretty good reason to have a tremendous amount of doubt as to whether or not the the Bills would have won a Super Bowl with Mahomes by now. Ironically it would largely depend on what team Allen ended up on in 2018. What if it was the Chiefs? LOL. We are probably looking at the same 2020 conference title game Bills vs Chiefs. Who knows how it goes. 

[cage]

Its a hard topic to consider what might have happened under the scenario of drafting Mahomes, the QB of the future, at that time.  Several trades such as Watkins, Darby and Cordy Glenn trade-up, may not have played out like they did if you already had the QB on the roster than if you were clearing the field in advance of picking one the following year.  

 

There was an in-depth article on the road to find Allen that touched on that draft a while back.  I want so say it was on the Athletic by Tim Graham, but could be wrong.  It reported that Pegula was really pushing hard for Mahomes, but the draft experts (Whaley and Monos) thought he would last longer and they could pick him later.  If they embraced Pegula's thinking from the get-go make the pick at 10, maybe they never get fired and Brandon Beane never comes our way, he'd be Panther's GM and we'd never know what we missed??

 

Our next two picks of the 2017 draft in the 2nd round were Zay Jones and trade-up for Dion Dawkins.  As a guess, I'd imagine they still would have picked Jones to support the Mahomes pick, but probably after that they would have needed to turn attention to Defense rather than picking Dawkins.  The next five CBs taken (before end of R3) after where we picked Dawkins are Ahkello Witherspoon, Fabian Moreau, Shaquille Griffin, Jourdan Lewis and Cameron Sutton.  So 1 in 5 chance of somebody that could even start to be in the same conversation w/ Tre White.  So flame-out WR and CB in rounds 2/3 were likely.  So you may want to change the poll up top to Mahomes vs. Allen/White/Dawkins.

 

That pick could be Butterfly Effect-ed all sorts of crazy ways....

 

To that end, I'll add a fun fact!!  Assuming we picked Mahomes and he was red-shirted similar to how KC did and Bills planned to w/ Allen, then Tyrod Taylor was still our starting QB.    Ready???  Tyrod got hurt in week 13 and Peterman (unlikely we would have picked a 2nd QB in that draft) started the Snow Bowl against the Colts.  Ipso-facto... Mahomes would have been our QB for that snow game.... now that would have been fun!!

 

 

Edited October 25, 2021 by cage

[BobbyC81]

3 hours ago, 947 said:

I'm surprised there's even a single vote for Mahomes over Josh/Tre.

 

If we would've drafted Mahomes, he'd have been thrown into the fire day 1 & wouldn't have had near the success he has in KC. Then he'd have asked for a trade when contract #2 came up, and we'd have traded him for a 1st rounder, then been forced to start over and take Mac Jones in the 2021 draft. We'd be the same old Bills for eternity without that trade in 2017. Josh Allen is our destiny.

 

Where we really effed up the 2017 Draft was taking Zay in Round 2. Could've had our pick of Kupp, Godwin, Kamara, or Dalvin Cook.

I agree.  They likely would’ve made the same decision that Mahomes wasn’t ready and we had Tyrod and Peterman.  They still would’ve made the change to Peterman and then when he faltered, they may have gone to Mahomes or back to Tyrod.  Then in 2018, Mahomes would’ve been more ready than Josh was but the talent around him would likely be the same.  The whole roster wasn’t ready to be a contender until last season.

[YoloinOhio]

5 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Is Rex Ryan still the HC? 

No, McDermott was in place when he was drafted 

1 hour ago, cage said:

Its a hard topic to consider what might have happened under the scenario of drafting Mahomes, the QB of the future, at that time.  Several trades such as Watkins, Darby and Cordy Glenn trade-up, may not have played out like they did if you already had the QB on the roster than if you were clearing the field in advance of picking one the following year.  

 

There was an in-depth article on the road to find Allen that touched on that draft a while back.  I want so say it was on the Athletic by Tim Graham, but could be wrong.  It reported that Pegula was really pushing hard for Mahomes, but the draft experts (Whaley and Monos) thought he would last longer and they could pick him later.  If they embraced Pegula's thinking from the get-go make the pick at 10, maybe they never get fired and Brandon Beane never comes our way, he'd be Panther's GM and we'd never know what we missed??

 

Our next two picks of the 2017 draft in the 2nd round were Zay Jones and trade-up for Dion Dawkins.  As a guess, I'd imagine they still would have picked Jones to support the Mahomes pick, but probably after that they would have needed to turn attention to Defense rather than picking Dawkins.  The next five CBs taken (before end of R3) after where we picked Dawkins are Ahkello Witherspoon, Fabian Moreau, Shaquille Griffin, Jourdan Lewis and Cameron Sutton.  So 1 in 5 chance of somebody that could even start to be in the same conversation w/ Tre White.  So flame-out WR and CB in rounds 2/3 were likely.  So you may want to change the poll up top to Mahomes vs. Allen/White/Dawkins.

 

That pick could be Butterfly Effect-ed all sorts of crazy ways....

 

To that end, I'll add a fun fact!!  Assuming we picked Mahomes and he was red-shirted similar to how KC did and Bills planned to w/ Allen, then Tyrod Taylor was still our starting QB.    Ready???  Tyrod got hurt in week 13 and Peterman (unlikely we would have picked a 2nd QB in that draft) started the Snow Bowl against the Colts.  Ipso-facto... Mahomes would have been our QB for that snow game.... now that would have been fun!!

 

 

I believe Whaley was getting fired no matter what. He was fired the day after the draft. 

[cage]

17 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I believe Whaley was getting fired no matter what. He was fired the day after the draft. 

 

The article I was referring to seemed to indicate that Whaley/Monos were kind of dismissive of Pegula's input on picking Mahomes.  Maybe if they were on the "same page" with him and believed he should be the pick at #10, that would have all played differently?  That's not a one day pick, but a three month process leading up to the draft.  Maybe that's why he was ready to can them right after the draft??

 

Edited October 25, 2021 by cage

[Doc Brown]

Can we just call it a win/win for both teams?  Bears fans should be the one's tortured by that draft.

[RobbRiddick]

Mahomes is obviously great but I would stick with the way things played out. It's not that I think Allen is better, more that I just prefer watching Allen play and I prefer his story. I'm just so glad he's a Bill, so I wouldn't switch him for anyone.

 

And no, with Mahomes I don't think we'd have won a SB

Edited October 25, 2021 by RobbRiddick

[YoloinOhio]

30 minutes ago, cage said:

 

The article I was referring to seemed to indicate that Whaley/Monos were kind of dismissive of Pegula's input on picking Mahomes.  Maybe if they were on the "same page" with him and believed he should be the pick at #10, that would have all played differently?  That's not a one day pick, but a three month process leading up to the draft.  Maybe that's why he was ready to can them right after the draft??

 

That is certainly possible. It seemed like McDermott was the one making the final calls on the draft board though. This was a good article from MMQB right after the draft 

 

[Bill from NYC]

The trade turned out well, and this is a great thing. The odds of it turning out so well were poor and imo the success of the trade was random, not planned. Trading away from a HOF QB at 10 all the way down to 27 to draft a corner (however good) is not a strategy that is going to win you lots of football games.

 

Looking back I am totally fine with what transpired. I was on this board and thrilled when the drafted Josh while many others were furious. That said, to think that our front office knew that far in advance that they were going to get Josh and he would turn out to be this great is quite silly imo. 

 

It's an interesting topic, but what really matters is that Josh is great and I think he will even improve!!!!!

 

It's all good.

 

[Paul Costa]

Everything happens for a reason. Both are very good QB’s it’s hard to argue the Bills haven’t been a better team from top to bottom since that draft. Many variables come into play. The Bills are arguably the best team in the NFL right now. They have a great opportunity to show that in the next 3 + months or so. Should be fun. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

8 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Is Rex Ryan still the HC? 

Pegulas put their foot down: Can't afford Rob's snacks bill.

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Thinking about this a lot for the last 13-14 months or so… your thoughts?

 

Do I know when I pass on Mahomes I am getting Josh Allen? How much do I know about the other guys in the 2018 draft? 

 

Would I now rather have Tre and Josh than just Pat, yes. They are two of our 3 elite players and Beane doesn't trade for the third of them (Diggs) if they don't feel so good about Josh. 

 

But once you start getting into these hypotheticals I need to know exactly what are the known knowns and the known unknowns.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Remember when Russell Wilson was our “coulda, shoulda, woulda” QB?

Just like Russ, I don’t think Patrick would have had a similar career with Buffalo. Failing to take into consideration the context of all the variables at the time of the pick is looking at things subjectively. 

[GunnerBill]

55 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

The trade turned out well, and this is a great thing. The odds of it turning out so well were poor and imo the success of the trade was random, not planned. Trading away from a HOF QB at 10 all the way down to 27 to draft a corner (however good) is not a strategy that is going to win you lots of football games.

 

 

I think it was planned. McDermott knew the 2018 class waw shaping up nicely, knew his buddy was about to join him as GM and knew they would have the capital to move around. In that sense it was absolutely planned.

 

But I agree it was an extremely high risk strategy because you need plenty of things to pan out in order to be "right" when you walk away from the chance to draft a potential franchise QB.

[YoloinOhio]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Do I know when I pass on Mahomes I am getting Josh Allen? How much do I know about the other guys in the 2018 draft? 

 

Would I now rather have Tre and Josh than just Pat, yes. They are two of our 3 elite players and Beane doesn't trade for the third of them (Diggs) if they don't feel so good about Josh. 

 

But once you start getting into these hypotheticals I need to know exactly what are the known knowns and the known unknowns.

Yes, you know it all in hindsight 

[TH3]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Andy Reid was best known as a playoff choker and terrible game clock manager and the Chiefs fanbase was ready to move on from him..........until he got this guy.

 

No reason to believe that the Bills wouldn't have won a SB with Mahomes by now unless you think McBeane are otherwise incompetent. 

 

I was a fan of the Josh Allen selection but it's idiotic to suggest that trading Mahomes to a division/AFC rival was anything but a mistake.    Even for a very good cornerback and the primary asset used to acquire Tremaine Edmunds.   

 

Mahomes literally just defeated the Bills in the most recent AFCCG...........until the Bills win a SB with Allen it's not even a point of contention.

Says you….

 

This whole question is ridiculous anyway…..NO ONE was predicting PM would come out and do what he did in his first 4 years….heck ….he wasn’t even the first QB taken….so to criticize the choice made at the time with the added knowledge of 5 more seasons…..someone dig up the thread on TBD flaming the pick at the time

 

I like where we sit….all day

Edited October 25, 2021 by TH3

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Yes, you know it all in hindsight 

 

Oh if you know everything then yes you do it again.

[Bill from NYC]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think it was planned. McDermott knew the 2018 class waw shaping up nicely, knew his buddy was about to join him as GM and knew they would have the capital to move around. In that sense it was absolutely planned.

I respectfully disagree. If he knew or even suspected that Mahomes was a future HOF QB, he would not have traded him away imo. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Bill from NYC said:

I respectfully disagree. If he knew or even suspected that Mahomes was a future HOF QB, he would not have traded him away imo. 

 

But the whole point is he didn't know that. He had a plan and it involved not picking a Quarterback until he had the guy he trusted in charge of the evaluation process. 

[BuffaloBill]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

That is certainly possible. It seemed like McDermott was the one making the final calls on the draft board though. This was a good article from MMQB right after the draft 

 

It’s painful to read that article - the organization was a mess.

[CorkScrewHill]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Do I know when I pass on Mahomes I am getting Josh Allen? How much do I know about the other guys in the 2018 draft? 

 

Would I now rather have Tre and Josh than just Pat, yes. They are two of our 3 elite players and Beane doesn't trade for the third of them (Diggs) if they don't feel so good about Josh. 

 

But once you start getting into these hypotheticals I need to know exactly what are the known knowns and the known unknowns.

This is it exactly. One of the unknowns was Patrick Mahomes. We talk as if it was a guarantee he would have this outstanding start to his career. Yes some people on this board loved him, but those same people have LOVED other people who ended up being a bust.  ESPN's Jeff Legwold was so high on Mahomes they had Tre White 19 spots higher than him (23rd to 52nd) in their 2017 top 100 draft prospects. They had Trubisky at 42 and Deshaun Watson at 28. I have liked 100s of players I anted the Bills to take .. some have been good, some have sucked. I always remember the ones I liked that turned out well.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2017/story/_/id/19180310/ranking-top-100-prospects-available-2017-nfl-draft-espn-nfl-nation-reporter-jeff-legwold

 

NFL.com Mike Mayock had him at 32

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/mike-mayock-s-2017-nfl-draft-top-100-prospect-rankings-0ap3000000802568

 

Daniel Jeremiah from NFL.com had 3 Qbs in the top 50 but none named Mahommes. he had Deshone Kizer as his top ranked QB

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-prospects-for-2017-nfl-draft-0ap3000000775479

 

Sporting News actually had him as their top QB at #12 with the following write-up

"12. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech

Mahomes is the best quarterback in a class that lacks a true No. 1-worthy prospect. Right now he’s a more reckless version of Jay Cutler, but his upside is Brett Favre/Matt Stafford. That upside is worth a team making him the first quarterback selected."

 

Gil Brandt had him high, but his third ranked QB.

 

USAToday had him as their 4th QB

 

The myth that everyone should have known that Mahomes would be a franchise level quarterback is not backed by the facts from the time.

 

Alll that to say, I prefer Josh, because he somehow is Buffalo. I hope he can win a SB for the Bills like Mahomes has done for the Chiefs but as of today .. I would rather have Josh.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, CorkScrewHill said:

This is it exactly. One of the unknowns was Patrick Mahomes. We talk as if it was a guarantee he would have this outstanding start to his career. Yes some people on this board loved him, but those same people have LOVED other people who ended up being a bust. 

 

Agree totally (maybe slightly biased because I didn't have a 1st on him either.... or Josh... whoops). 

[YoloinOhio]

22 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

It’s painful to read that article - the organization was a mess.

Amazing how far things have come. That article was only 8 months before the draught ended. 

[bigK14094]

The draft game has a lot of chance built in.  Redoing and earlier draft...ok....but, who knew Allen lasts until #7 the next year?   I would have bet against that.  The Bills lucked out imho.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, bigK14094 said:

The draft game has a lot of chance built in.  Redoing and earlier draft...ok....but, who knew Allen lasts until #7 the next year?   I would have bet against that.  The Bills lucked out imho.

 

Indeed in a true re-do Mahomes goes #1 overall in 2017 and Allen goes #1 overall in 2018. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

I agree.  They likely would’ve made the same decision that Mahomes wasn’t ready and we had Tyrod and Peterman.  They still would’ve made the change to Peterman and then when he faltered, they may have gone to Mahomes or back to Tyrod.  Then in 2018, Mahomes would’ve been more ready than Josh was but the talent around him would likely be the same.  The whole roster wasn’t ready to be a contender until last season.

 

Peterman would have never been drafted to the Bills. Mahomes and Peterman are from the same 2017 draft class. But yes, it probably would have been Tyrod starting the 2017 season I would assume with Mahomes taking over mid season.

[MJS]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Andy Reid was best known as a playoff choker and terrible game clock manager and the Chiefs fanbase was ready to move on from him..........until he got this guy.

 

No reason to believe that the Bills wouldn't have won a SB with Mahomes by now unless you think McBeane are otherwise incompetent. 

 

I was a fan of the Josh Allen selection but it's idiotic to suggest that trading Mahomes to a division/AFC rival was anything but a mistake.    Even for a very good cornerback and the primary asset used to acquire Tremaine Edmunds.   

 

Mahomes literally just defeated the Bills in the most recent AFCCG...........until the Bills win a SB with Allen it's not even a point of contention.

For me it isn't an argument that Allen is better than Mahomes. To me it's clear. Mahomes has had the greatest start to his career probably of all time. Dan Marino is in that conversation too. As of right now, Mahomes is the top QB in the league. What he has done is amazing.

 

But he was also put onto a team with talent ready to win right away, with a great coach. The Bills were largely devoid of talent, especially the skill positions.

 

So when would Mahomes have won a Superbowl with the Bills? Not last year. Mahomes got beat by the Bucs and Tom Brady. There's no reason to believe that he would have done better with the Bills in that game. 2019, maybe? But the Bills had only John Brown and Cole Beasley to throw to. Maybe he could have gotten it done, but the rest of the team wasn't ready to win a Superbowl, in my opinion. Mahomes would have gone nowhere in 2018 with the garbage talent the Bills had.

 

Also, I just like Josh Allen and Tre White and think the fit the team and the fan base really well. So no, I wouldn't trade them and I doubt that Mahomes would have won a Superbowl with the Bills by now.