The Edmunds Report - Week 4, Texans v. Bills, 10/03/21

[Freddie's Dead]

Week 4 of The Edmunds Report is here.  I will state what I see on a play, then assign a point system -1, 0, +1, and keep a running total.  I'll ignore plays where he's not involved and only look at coverage if he's onscreen (I don't have the All-22).  I'll also flag plays for the haterz so they can skip the rest.  Based on feedback, I'll also be looking at plays where 49 is rushing the passer to determine his relative effectiveness there.  Let's go to the tape.

 

HOU 1st possession

1st and 20, HOU 15 - Middle run, 49 stacks the line, assists Eddie O with tackle, 1 yard (+1, +1)

3rd and 28, HOU 7 - Draw up the middle, 49 blocked downfield, makes contact at 13, knocked on his ass (HATERZ PLAY), still makes tackle for 10 yard gain to force punt (0, +1) 

 

HOU 2nd possession

1st and 10, BUF 13 - 49 takes left gap, run goes right for 2 yards (0,+1)

2nd and 8, BUF 11 - Run right, 49 and Cookie combine for the tackle, 5 yard gain (0, +1)

3rd and 3, BUF 6 - 49 blocked on left, run goes right for no gain (0,+1)

 

HOU 3rd possession

1st and 10, BUF 49 - Middle run, 49 overruns the gap (HATERZ PLAY), 12 yard gain (-1,0)

3rd and 10, BUF 37 - 49 drops, makes the INT (+1, +1)  HOU was building momentum, 49 snuffed it out, and HOU was DONE!

 

HOU 4th possession

1st and 10, HOU 19 - WR screen to Cooks, 49 pursues and makes tackle for 3 yard gain (+1, +2)

 

HOU 5th possession

1st and 10, HOU 11 - Toss sweep, 49 pursues down the line and makes tackle for a 2 yard gain (+1, +3)

3rd and 9, HOU 12 - 49 drops into coverage, Mills has nowhere to go, Boogie gets his first NFL sack (+1, +4)

 

HOU 6th possession

3rd and 8, HOU 25 - 49 drops, Mills sacked by Star (+1, +5)

 

HOU 7th possession

No impact plays before Micah Hyde's INT

 

HOU 8th possession

1st and 10, HOU 25 - Middle run, 49 fights off a block to make the tackle, 4 yard gain (+1,+6)

 

Hard to have a much better half than 49 did here.  Only one negative play, although the haterz will point out the play where he got trucked for a 10 yard gain.  He still made the tackle and forced the punt, so I rated the play a 0.  He really didn't rush the passer at all because the D line was doing just fine on its own.  Mills was running for his life in the first half.

 

HOU 9th possession

3rd and 1, HOU 34 - 49 blocked at point of attack, makes tackle but gives up 1st down (-1, +5)

2nd and 18, HOU 29 - 49 blitzes, gets there just after Mills throws the screen for 8 yard gain (0, +5)

3rd and 10, HOU 37 - 49 drops, Mills has nowhere to go, dumps it OB to prevent sack (+1, +6)

 

HOU 10th possession

2nd and 2, HOU 23 - 49 covers 88 for Texans, Mills completes the 1st down pass, Edmunds makes the tackle, holds him up, AND CAM LEWIS PUNCHES IT OUT FOR THE FUMBLLLLLLEEEEE!!!!  Bills recover (+1,+7)

 

Bills are up 33-0 at this point, and Edmunds is pulled to give the backups time.  

 

Conclusions

1.  Fantastic game by Edmunds.  He created two turnovers, the INT and the Lewis forced fumble.

2.  His coverage skills were on full display today.  Mills had nowhere to go, as 49 and the Bills backfield had HOU receivers blanketed, leading directly to coverage sacks and pressure, which Mills did not handle well.

3.  Only one play where he rushed the passer, the screen where he just missed getting there.

4.  HATERZ PLAYs were at a minimum this week, hopefully they will continue to decline.  

5.  Really wish my DVR didn't croak during the Fish game.

6.  Next week is the acid test, Kelce and the Chefs at Arrowhead.  That will tell us if 49's improvement is real.

 

49 grades overall:

Squeelers - B+ (6 HATERZ PLAYs)

WTF's - B- (7 HATERZ PLAYs)

Erlers - A+ (2 HATERZ PLAYs)

Edited October 5, 2021 by Freddie's Dead

[Dave_Bills]

Edmunds was great today. If he can replicate that performance next week against Mahomes I’ll be sold

[Coach Tuesday]

No question one of his best games as a pro.

[HurlyBurly51]

I didn’t wear my 49 jersey today...you’re welcome😉

[Rc2catch]

That was a thorough defensive whooping today. I honest to god felt so bad for that Mills kid. They should of benched him, for anyone. They would of been better off running the wildcat the whole second half to save the poor kid. 
I was happy to see Edmunds have a great game and build some confidence for next week. Kelce had his worst game of the season today so he’ll be fired up to get back on track next week 

[Alphadawg7]

Calling it now:  This thread will be short because Edmunds had a great game and there’s nothing for others to complain about.  

 

 

[Nuncha]

He played great and hopefully it carries into next week.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

The screen that got called back for the hold he was out of position and got blocked 10+ yards down field if I remember correctly.  He was not the guy getting held

That play and the 10 yard run up the middle you pointed out were the only two negative plays I saw today. Best game he has played since second half of 2019! No doubt.  

[Bruffalo]

It's almost like Edmunds is a way above replacement level player.

 

He's been great this season, fans are just looking for something to nitpick.

[NewEra]

17 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Calling it now:  This thread will be short because Edmunds had a great game and there’s nothing for others to complain about.  

 

 

that’s because there won’t be any “back and forth” regarding how he played.  He played one of his best games.  He’s a “pro bowler”——he’s supposed to have some good games right?  
 

Would be nice if he can replicate this performance next week vs an actual NFL team.  For his sake, I hope next weeks thread is even shorter.   

[John from Riverside]

It’s not true until 609 says it is LOL

He is strangely absent from this thread

 

[Clark Rotary]

Thanks for this write-up, I look forward to them now - as soon as I saw the interception, I started wondering what this week's report would look like...

 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

He played downhill in the run game. I saw stops he made after 1-2 yards that he has historically been making after 5-6. 
 

Great job today 

[RiotAct]

he was awesome today.  All over the field making good plays.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

He played downhill in the run game. I saw stops he made after 1-2 yards that he has historically been making after 5-6. 
 

Great job today 

Among league leader for tackles at the LOS last couple seasons

[John from Riverside]

34 minutes ago, NewEra said:

that’s because there won’t be any “back and forth” regarding how he played.  He played one of his best games.  He’s a “pro bowler”——he’s supposed to have some good games right?  
 

Would be nice if he can replicate this performance next week vs an actual NFL team.  For his sake, I hope next weeks thread is even shorter.   

Can we stop against the actual NFL team ***** anyone of these NFL teams can be another on any given Sunday

[Norcalbillsfan]

Still not sold on edmunds, he had a great game no denying it and I loved it. Main reason I'm not sold is that could possibly be the worst offense edmunds and the bills have played in edmunds pro career. Mills was absolutely no threat to that defense today. I'm not rooting against edmunds at all, I'd love nothing more than him to prove me wrong against the cheifs, but If we use the Texans offense as measurement then the entire bills D needs a contract extension lol.

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

Still not sold on edmunds, he had a great game no denying it and I loved it. Main reason I'm not sold is that could possibly be the worst offense edmunds and the bills have played in edmunds pro career. Mills was absolutely no threat to that defense today. I'm not rooting against edmunds at all, I'd love nothing more than him to prove me wrong against the cheifs, but If we use the Texans offense as measurement then the entire bills D needs a contract extension lol.

The Texans have a good Running backs

This isn’t the only good game that Edmonds is played he was also good against Pittsburgh even in the loss

 

In another game he didn’t play the whole game because he went out due to dehydration

 

I will say this Though I am much more comfortable with Klein With each passing game that he plays

 

[GoBills808]

😂😂Edmunds is literally the only Bills player we adjust for competition

 

the hate is real

[The Wiz]

but he still sucks, right?

[Punching Bag]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Calling it now:  This thread will be short because Edmunds had a great game and there’s nothing for others to complain about.  

 

Why? Some complain just to complain.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Can we stop against the actual NFL team ***** anyone of these NFL teams can be another on any given Sunday

I disagree.  That Houston Texans, fielding the starters they had today, could never beat this Bills team.  

[Bangarang]

Are we taking about two time Pro Bowl LB Tre Edmunds? If so, he was okay today.

[Norcalbillsfan]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

I disagree.  That Houston Texans, fielding the starters they had today, could never beat this Bills team.  

Agreed, I'll take the dominant win all day. But I have a really hard time thinking of a worse team the bills have faced In the Allen Era.

[Richard Noggin]

Fun to see Edmunds play downhill. He had a pop to his game we don't get to see much. 

 

Next step: do it against quality competition.

[Nelius]

Still not very worried about this giant human being that disrupts offensive game plans and may just ***** a ball out of mid-air if it's in his area. 

 

^ what, that's not allowed? How about pluck?

 

 

Edited October 4, 2021 by Nelius

[BADOLBILZ]

Haven't re-watched it yet but even though the D played very few snaps overall......it seemed like he had the best game of his career.

 

I overheard people talking in the stands early in the game about Edmunds being ticked off about being referenced as a bust in the media...........not sure if he made any statement or what...........and then he promptly went out and made plays that he hasn't made in 2-3 years.  

 

As I've said........MLB is a devalued position and one of the reasons is that it's hard for an inside backer to really have much impact in games against top QB's..........in big games against good QB's the defensive performance usually comes down to how you perform at edge and island positions.

 

The days where MLB's gotta' make their hay are against the rookies, scrubs and washed up QB's.

 

Edmunds hadn't been doing that thru 3 games against bad QB's so far.........but today he did.  

 

Hopefully he keeps it up.   The Bills only have a handful of games against top veteran QB's left so the schedule is ripe with opportunity.   

[Coach Tuesday]

29 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Haven't re-watched it yet but even though the D played very few snaps overall......it seemed like he had the best game of his career.

 

I overheard people talking in the stands early in the game about Edmunds being ticked off about being referenced as a bust in the media...........not sure if he made any statement or what...........and then he promptly went out and made plays that he hasn't made in 2-3 years.  

 

As I've said........MLB is a devalued position and one of the reasons is that it's hard for an inside backer to really have much impact in games against top QB's..........in big games against good QB's the defensive performance usually comes down to how you perform at edge and island positions.

 

The days where MLB's gotta' make their hay are against the rookies, scrubs and washed up QB's.

 

Edmunds hadn't been doing that thru 3 games against bad QB's so far.........but today he did.  

 

Hopefully he keeps it up.   The Bills only have a handful of games against top veteran QB's left so the schedule is ripe with opportunity.   

 

It helps when the QB can't execute a fake or get past his first read.  Let's see how he does against Mahomes this weekend.  But considering he's failed to take the "low hanging fruit" for most of his career, yesterday was a positive sign.

[BADOLBILZ]

Just now, Coach Tuesday said:

 

It helps when the QB can't execute a fake or get past his first read.  Let's see how he does against Mahomes this weekend.  But considering he's failed to take the "low hanging fruit" for most of his career, yesterday was a positive sign.

 

I will be pleased with "adequate" against Mahomes.   

[LeGOATski]

For a guy who's a "net negative" he really had a positive impact yesterday.

 

@HappyDays any thoughts?

[BillsShredder83]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Calling it now:  This thread will be short because Edmunds had a great game and there’s nothing for others to complain about.  

 

 

I've ate crow with Devin, definitely with Knox, would be more than happy to add Tremaine to the list. For me, this next games his chance to prove it. He'd have his work cutout with Milano, but especially without him as it's looking to be the case. Had a nice game against Hou, time to show us the baby this week. I'll be a BILLiever if he shows out Sunday. Fingers crossed

[Gambit]

I really hope he can at least somewhat contain Kelce. 

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, Gambit said:

I really hope he can at least somewhat contain Kelce. 

Don't get your hopes up. Kelce's gonna get his yards. Just don't let him get TDs.

 

Hoping they can do what the Chargers did. Get to Mahomes with 4 and bracket their two best receivers.

[MJS]

13 minutes ago, Gambit said:

I really hope he can at least somewhat contain Kelce. 

Nobody in the NFL can do that unless you knock Mahomes around and don't allow him to get Kelce the ball.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

For a guy who's a "net negative" he really had a positive impact yesterday.

 

@HappyDays any thoughts?

 

You've been misconstruing what I said. I said that smart offenses with smart QBs can exploit his weaknesses and negate his positives to the point that he becomes a net negative for the defense. I was happy to see him make some plays yesterday. He showed better instincts. Next week is a real test. I'm not expecting him to shut Kelce down but I need to see him contain him at least. A repeat of the AFCCG would be a step back.

[Gambit]

11 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Don't get your hopes up. Kelce's gonna get his yards. Just don't let him get TDs.

 

Hoping they can do what the Chargers did. Get to Mahomes with 4 and bracket their two best receivers.

He did destroy us last year but you never know. He is coming off of only a 23yds game.

[LeGOATski]

55 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You've been misconstruing what I said. I said that smart offenses with smart QBs can exploit his weaknesses and negate his positives to the point that he becomes a net negative for the defense. I was happy to see him make some plays yesterday. He showed better instincts. Next week is a real test. I'm not expecting him to shut Kelce down but I need to see him contain him at least. A repeat of the AFCCG would be a step back.

You haven't given any specifics yet. At this point all you've basically said is that Mahomes and Kelce can exploit zone coverage.

57 minutes ago, Gambit said:

He did destroy us last year but you never know. He is coming off of only a 23yds game.

I definitely need to watch that Eagles game.

[dorquemada]

I tried to key in on him more during the game - i really appreciate your summary each week.

 

He's getting better in coverage, and he was already pretty good.  We're going to get a great measuring stick next week as I figure he'll be covering Kelce.  He's  going to give up some first downs but if he can get a turnover or even just a few stops, it'll be real growth

[Brand J]

Best game since perhaps his rookie year, his best season. I’d love for Edmunds to turn into a game wrecker, I don’t think any true Bills fan roots against his success, but I’m not going to crown him “all pro” because he had a good game against the Texans. I hope to see more impactful plays from him going forward, especially in big games.

Side note, whoever’s responsible for covering Kelce next week, Edmunds, Tre Day or whoever, can Frazier PLEASE have a DE jam him off the line of scrimmage every time he’s in tight formation?! Disrupt Mahomes timing, the DE tasked with jamming Kelce likely wouldn’t sack Mahomes anyway.

[Dukestreetking]

20 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Week 4 of The Edmunds Report is here.

Yesss! I'm just so damn happy you're doing this.

 

Agree or disagree, it gives us a great framework to argue re a contentious board topic.

 

Thanks for the effort...yet another ex of why I'm now addicted to this place.