Week 1: Steelers at Bills

[TPS]

7 hours ago, WideNine said:

 

I think the Steelers are a well-coached team.

 

I expect them to run a lot and use quick passes; maybe leverage their TEs to eat the clock and make Allen cool his heels.

 

Ebron is worse than Knox with the dropsies so it will be interesting if they lean on their rookie TE Freiermuth they invested that 55th pick to nab.

 

He is supposedly a much better blocker than Ebron too so could give those outside zone runs a boost.

 

TEs have been an Achilles heel for our defense so we will see if they have made any adjustments to better counter them. 

 

Big Ben is not what I would consider a mobile threat so they are going to need to jump out in front and stay that way for that keep-away game plan to really work.

 

If and when we get up on them, Ben will have to take more deep drops and hold the ball, I would expect sacks and turnovers with the kind of talent Beane has pumped into the DL.

 

I am pretty stoked... seems like it was the longest offseason ever.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yep, run Harris to set up the play action is what I expect them to do Sunday.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Greg S]

What's the deal with Watt? Are they really not going to sign him? Good news for the Bills if he misses this game.

[Bangarang]

13 hours ago, Simon said:

 

Last year I think he had a grand total of 1 tackle after getting jacked up by Daryl Williams all night.

He was so ineffective they ended up flipping him around just to get him away from Williams.

Watt will show up ready to play and with chips on both shoulders re: his contract and getting dominated by #75 last year,  and I still don't think it will make a galdanged bit of difference. 

Watt is one of the best pass rushers in the league. I think it’s a bit silly to just assume he’s going to get shut down.

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, Bangarang said:

Watt is one of the best pass rushers in the league. I think it’s a bit silly to just assume he’s going to get shut down.

 

He was shut down last year by us, but I agree... we shouldn't assume he'll have no impact.  

 

That being said, we have a good pass pro OL, but the one area teams seem to be able to get some pressure is via the interior of our OL - particularly the guard spots.  Hopefully they tighten that up this year so we don't have to deal with a half where Heyward terrorizes the line.  

[YattaOkasan]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

He was shut down last year by us, but I agree... we shouldn't assume he'll have no impact.  

 

That being said, we have a good pass pro OL, but the one area teams seem to be able to get some pressure is via the interior of our OL - particularly the guard spots.  Hopefully they tighten that up this year so we don't have to deal with a half where Heyward terrorizes the line.  

He did pretty well against us in 2019 but that was without D Will.  0.5 Sacks, 1 Pass deflection, 4 tackles, forced fumble and 2 QB Hits

[Solomon Grundy]

@realmikerob is my new favorite football host on television!!

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I seriously doubt it as we didn’t have a crowd last year, and any Steelers fans will pay through the nose when we have 60k in season tickets.  Bills fanatics aren’t giving up these tix.  For once we won’t have 25k in yellow towels this year.

 

There are a ton of tickets for sale online. Whether or not people want to pay $150-$200 per ticket to sit in nose bleeds I don't know, but if they want tickets there are plenty.

[BillsFan619]

41 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

@realmikerob is my new favorite football host on television!!

He mentioned the other day that he believes that Josh Allen might be better than Patrick Mahomes. He mentioned that he used to say 1A and 1B. But now, he’s wondering if Josh is above him.

 

It was kind of crazy to hear.

Edited September 8, 2021 by BillsFan619

[JMF2006]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

why do you say he is going under center more? 

 

Reports from the Steelers camp and practices had him under center in O C Canada's new offence.

[wjag]

2 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I seriously doubt it as we didn’t have a crowd last year, and any Steelers fans will pay through the nose when we have 60k in season tickets.  Bills fanatics aren’t giving up these tix.  For once we won’t have 25k in yellow towels this year.

 

Upthread you should have seen the Canadians can't cross the border and sold their tickets.  The place will be overrun with bumble bees.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

What's the deal with Watt? Are they really not going to sign him? Good news for the Bills if he misses this game.

I want the Steelers team at full strength. We have to test out OL and DL to know if the off-season changes have been meaningful or not. 

[SCBills]

16 minutes ago, BillsFan619 said:

He mentioned the other day that he believes that Josh Allen might be better than Patrick Mahomes. He mentioned that he used to say 1A and 1B. But now, he’s wondering if Josh is above him.

 

It was kind of crazy to hear.

 

Agreed.  This year could change the narrative..  Allen has the highest ceiling of any QB in my lifetime, and he seems to have the work ethic to match.  

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

 

I had PTSD watching the Notre Dame Tight End against FSU.  Dude makes big time plays and then just drops easy catches.  

 

Tight Ends typically take time, and I have a feeling Knox makes the jump this year.    

[YoloinOhio]

 

[LeGOATski]

I don't think the play-action game is going to phase the Bills. I hope Ben is forced to throw it deep, since that's not his game anymore. 

[YoloinOhio]

4 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I don't think the play-action game is going to phase the Bills. I hope Ben is forced to throw it deep, since that's not his game anymore. 

Neither is play action - his completion%, ypa, and passer rating all considerably worse when they ran it last year (it’s usually the opposite)

 

 

Edited September 8, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

[gordong]

So did watt practice with the steelers today? 

[eball]

34 minutes ago, wjag said:

 

Upthread you should have seen the Canadians can't cross the border and sold their tickets.  The place will be overrun with bumble bees.

 

Well that sucks.

[LeGOATski]

5 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Neither is play action - his completion%, ypa, and passer rating all considerably worse when they ran it last year (it’s usually the opposite)

 

 

Yeah, I'm listening to Locked On Bills now 😄 That was a really intriguing stat line.

[YoloinOhio]

This will be true on Sunday. Ben gets the ball out in 2.1 sec. Need to pressure him into bad throws and get hands up 

 

Edited September 8, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[BringBackFlutie]

On 9/6/2021 at 8:45 AM, Stank_Nasty said:

Good discussion this morning from the GMFB crew. Michael Robinson was on so you know dang well he was gonna pound the table for his boy Allen! 

A lot of people saying things like this lately.

 

It seemed like all through the offseason, Allen had wedged himself into the conversation for one of the better QBs in the league, maybe even first or second tier.  There were still so.many reservations, and the usual suspects kind of backhand complimenting him.

 

...now, suddenly, in the last week(?) he is an MVP candidate, or in the lead for MVP, or flat out WILL BE MVP, or the best quarterback in football; and the Bills are no longer candidates to get to the Super Bowl, but never mentioned as less than Super Bowl contenders.

 

What was it?  Was it the 20/26 194 yds 2 TDs using a precision dink and dunk offense coupled with a 40 yd rope at a velocity that the biggest arms in history would struggle to match, all in one half of preseason play? 😅

Edited September 8, 2021 by BringBackFlutie
Redundancy

[YoloinOhio]

1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

Yeah, I'm listening to Locked On Bills now 😄 That was a really intriguing stat line.

How about the deep throw stat? Crazy

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

On 9/7/2021 at 3:39 PM, RiotAct said:

the Washington Nationals shortstop is playing Offensive Line for the Steelers?!?

He's the LA Dodgers shortstop now! Oh no the dreaded West Coast to East Coast early game disaster!

[Scott7975]

21 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I had PTSD watching the Notre Dame Tight End against FSU.  Dude makes big time plays and then just drops easy catches.  

 

Tight Ends typically take time, and I have a feeling Knox makes the jump this year.    

 

I really hope so.  I like Knox a lot but we can't have those drops.  I expect that anyone can have drops but man he drops the stupid stuff too often.

[K-9]

16 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

This will be true on Sunday. Ben gets the ball out in 2.1 sec. Need to pressure him into bad throws and get hands up 

 

Agree entirely with Frazier. Hurries also tend to result in more turnovers than sacks as well. That said, I suspect it won’t matter much vs. Big Ben as he gets rid of the ball faster than any QB in the league. It’s hard to hurry a QB in the less than 2.5 seconds he takes to get rid of the ball. 

[GoBills808]

29 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Neither is play action - his completion%, ypa, and passer rating all considerably worse when they ran it last year (it’s usually the opposite)

 

 

Roethlisberger is on record saying he doesn’t like play action, doesn’t like turning his back to the defense.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

10 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Agree entirely with Frazier. Hurries also tend to result in more turnovers than sacks as well. That said, I suspect it won’t matter much vs. Big Ben as he gets rid of the ball faster than any QB in the league. It’s hard to hurry a QB in the less than 2.5 seconds he takes to get rid of the ball. 

That's an average time to throw the ball.  What matters is getting pressure when the down and distance is in favor of the defense.  Hurries matter but Frazier is wrong.  Sacks do matter and he would take a sack over a hurry almost every time. Sacks lead to QB fumbles and loss of yards.  An incomplete pass is good but a tackle for loss is better.  

[Scott7975]

3 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

That's an average time to throw the ball.  What matters is getting pressure when the down and distance is in favor of the defense.  Hurries matter but Frazier is wrong.  Sacks do matter and he would take a sack over a hurry almost every time. Sacks lead to QB fumbles and loss of yards.  An incomplete pass is good but a tackle for loss is better.  

 

Hurries can also lead to interceptions, incompletions, throwing short of the sticks on 3rd down. In the case of QBs like Darnold they can also lead to seeing ghosts. They both have benefits.

Edited September 8, 2021 by Scott7975

[LeGOATski]

15 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Agree entirely with Frazier. Hurries also tend to result in more turnovers than sacks as well. That said, I suspect it won’t matter much vs. Big Ben as he gets rid of the ball faster than any QB in the league. It’s hard to hurry a QB in the less than 2.5 seconds he takes to get rid of the ball. 

It still matters. The strategy is to get pressure with 5 or 6, even if Ben beats it with a quick throw. Then fake pressure and double up his short routes as you bait him into a quick throw. That's what led to the Taron pick 6 last season. "The vaunted double A gap" (in reference to that other thread from last week). 

 

If they get even more pressure from just the front 4, which we assume they will, the strategy works increasingly better. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Hurries can also lead to interceptions, incompletions, throwing short of the sticks on 3rd down. In the case of QBs like Darnold they can also lead to seeing ghosts. They both have benefits.

Agreed.  Go watch the Bruce Smith sack highlights and count how many of those sacks led to turnovers.  Many of them did.  Hell there were probably 5 or 6 in one season where he never even touched more then the QB's arm/hand and caused a fumble.  

Pressure the QB in any way possible.  I've been posting that for years.  They have better pass rushers than at any time since Mario Williams was here.  They should be able to get consistent pressure with the front four letting them drop more into coverage.  Dropping more into coverage means it will take longer for a guy to get open.  Frazier blitzed more last year than he has ever done.  If the young guys pan out he won't need to nearly as much and that is a good thing. 

[JGMcD2]

14 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

That's an average time to throw the ball.  What matters is getting pressure when the down and distance is in favor of the defense.  Hurries matter but Frazier is wrong.  Sacks do matter and he would take a sack over a hurry almost every time. Sacks lead to QB fumbles and loss of yards.  An incomplete pass is good but a tackle for loss is better.  

That's not what Frazier said?

[Blainorama5]

47 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

What was it?  Was it the 20/26 194 yds 2 TDs using a precision dink and dunk offense coupled with a 40 yd rope at a velocity that the biggest arms in history would struggle to match, all in one half of preseason play?

Probably.  It was a VERY impressive drive, especially considering it was his first "live" action and he looked like he was in mid-season form.  Obviously it was against backups, so the "experts" probably should take what they saw with a little more salt than many of them did, but hey - he did look good!

[CNY315]

 

[K-9]

8 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

That's an average time to throw the ball.  What matters is getting pressure when the down and distance is in favor of the defense.  Hurries matter but Frazier is wrong.  Sacks do matter and he would take a sack over a hurry almost every time. Sacks lead to QB fumbles and loss of yards.  An incomplete pass is good but a tackle for loss is better.  

I don’t believe either Frazier or I said that sacks don’t matter; not even close. The point he is making and which I agree with is that sacks aren’t the ONLY indicator of an effective pass rush. And hurries DO tend to result in more turnovers. 
 

Regarding that “average” time to throw the ball, cue up some Steeler games and determine the median time to throw from last season. That Steeler offense was specifically designed to mitigate BR’s worsening ability to avoid pressure and protect him, so it was a steady diet of two and three step drops out of the shotgun and throw the ball. The longer developing deep shots were fewer and farther between than the quick hits, which is why the average time to throw was just above two seconds. 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, CNY315 said:

 

 

Not sure what to think of Pittsburgh's run game.  They were terrible last year.  They drafted Harris but also have 5 new offensive lineman....

[K-9]

13 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

It still matters. The strategy is to get pressure with 5 or 6, even if Ben beats it with a quick throw. Then fake pressure and double up his short routes as you bait him into a quick throw. That's what led to the Taron pick 6 last season. "The vaunted double A gap" (in reference to that other thread from last week). 

 

If they get even more pressure from just the front 4, which we assume they will, the strategy works increasingly better. 

I don’t disagree, I’m just indicating that hurries and pressure of any kind is difficult to generate in less than 2.5 seconds. And as you indicate, pressure up the middle, the shortest distance, is key.