Beane's toughest draft yet. The conundrum; there aren't 30 players with a 1st round grade in this draft

[Inigo Montoya]

Beane's 2018 draft was all about dealing for a QB.  In 2019 there were just three or four players (Oliver, TJ Hockenson, Josh Allen, Devin Bush) who were real options for the Bills at #9.  In 2020 we didn't even have a 1st round pick.  This draft is going to be a wild ride with so many possibilities.  This is going to be Beane's toughest draft so far.

 

It's an unusual position to be in for the Bills' front office and fans.  We're drafting at #30 this year and there are typically less than 30 players with a "1st round grade" on them in any given NFL draft.   Practically speaking, this means that Brandon Beane is sitting in a position where he may end up using a 1st round draft pick on a player who has a 2nd round grade on their draft board.

 

There is a lot of talk about drafting a RB, even trading up to do so.  The question is, do the Bills have a 1st round grade on either Etienne or Harris?  If so, that could influence Beane into making a move up to grab one of them if standing pat will result in drafting a player with a 2nd round grade at #30.  Conversely, if everyone with a 1st round grade is already gone by the time the Bills are on the clock, the best course of action might be to try and trade back if doing so would still get you a player with a 2nd round grade and more draft capital.

 

I've linked to some rankings that don't just rank players #1 - #200, but identifies those players with a "1st round grade".  They range from one set of rankings giving only twelve players a 1st round grade in this years draft to another analyst who assigned twenty-eight 1st round grades.  Some of the rankings below have Etienne and Harris with a 1st round grade, while others don't give one or either of them a 1st round grade.

 

 ********************

 

"I've given out 25 first-round grades for the 2021 NFL Draft; so if you're picking 29th overall and all of these players are gone, my endorsement would be to try to trade back into the early portions of the next round and try again so you can find "appropriate value."

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/first-round-grades-2021-nfl-draft-kyle-crabbs

 

The author of these rankings has only 12 players with clear "First Round Grades - Tier 1", and has players ranked 13-27 placed in a second category called "Fringe First- Early Second - Tier Two"

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2021/4/26/22402560/zach-hicks-final-2021-nfl-draft-top-200-big-board

 

"Yes, there are fewer than 32 first-round grades. That’s typical, especially within the league. Just because there are 32 first-round picks every year doesn’t mean there are 32 prospects worthy of first-round selection."   (Spoiler...there are 23 players with 1st round grades)

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/lists/2021-nfl-draft-rankings-big-board-top-300-prospects/

 

"My final 2021 NFL Draft board presently breaks down as follows: 26 players with solid first-round grades..."

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-draft-prospects-2021-updated-big-board-player-rankings/

 

 

 

 

Edited April 28, 2021 by Inigo Montoya

[BuffaloBillies]

My unpopular opinion is... take the guy that helps us win now. If he's a 2nd round draft grade, so what! Best for us is what matters. 10 picks up or down, overvalued/undervalued.... BS. Get our guy and win. 

Edited April 28, 2021 by BuffaloBillies

[ganesh]

35 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

My unpopular opinion is... take the guy that helps us win now. If he's a 2nd round draft grade, so what! Best for us is what matters. 10 picks up or down, overvalued/undervalued.... BS. Get our guy and win. 

+1    Also, the first round grading by the Bills management could very well be different than all these draft pundit rankings.  I am sure the Bills trust and value their scouts opinions.

[iccrewman112]

Don’t be scared to trade back and get 2nd and 3rd rounders next year when there will be 2.5X times more draft entrants. Picks 30-100 next year will be very good next year in my opinion.

[NoSaint]

8 minutes ago, ganesh said:

+1    Also, the first round grading by the Bills management could very well be different than all these draft pundit rankings.  I am sure the Bills trust and value their scouts opinions.

I get there’s variance any given year but I don’t recall ever seeing a draft expert saying there were 38 first round grades... but plenty of times (essentially every year) only 20-24.

 

it’s almost like scarcity creates drama and drama creates clicks.

[Augie]

45 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

My unpopular opinion is... take the guy that helps us win now. If he's a 2nd round draft grade, so what! Best for us is what matters. 10 picks up or down, overvalued/undervalued.... BS. Get our guy and win. 

 

I’ve heard a bunch of people say there are 15-18 true first round grade guys. We may have an opportunity to drop back and maybe recover the 4th round pick we gave up for Diggs and more. It’s a VERY strange year for scouting with Covid, lack of games, interviews and a combine. 

 

I trust our scouts more than most, and think we may have a bit of an advantage this year. 

[US Egg]

Maybe a dry draft this year.

 

There will be good players had though.

 

Like Polian, when he proved himself, trust McBeane.

[jwhit34]

A lot of people and articles say if there are only 20-25 players with first round grades and you have #30 and they're all gone, you should trade down. The flaw in that logic is if everyone else has the same grades why would they want to trade up? Of course not everyone has the same grade for every player so it is possible. 

[Thurman#1]

There are never 30 players with first round grades. We hear this same thing every year, it's just that it hasn't been important to us because we haven't been drafting so far back in a long long time.

 

You hear two general variations on it over and over. First is the "There are 10 - 15 blue chip players" deal. Every year. Then there's the "there aren't (somewhere around 25 usually) first round guys" deal. Again, you hear it pretty much every year.

[Richard Noggin]

I think you're right in that earning a LATE first round pick, which every team should strive to do, presents novel challenges each year. And this year's draft might be uniquely challenging once they get past the dozen-or-so blue chippers.

 

Moreover, I'll bet the 32 NFL draft boards this year are more varied and subjective than ever before. We might see the pundits and fans alike caught off-guard by more picks this year, as the prospects' draft profiles don't have the same degree of standardization (which was already subject to considerable variance) that teams have grown accustomed to. We're likely all a bit more clueless than usual about the actual inner workings of this year's team-specific draft evaluations.

 

Seems like this is a year to let the draft play-out in front of you. Some highly-rated talents WILL fall, seeing as the prospect ratings from team-to-team will be less consistent. 

 

The draft should NOT be about immediate upgrades in any year (QB aside). It's about long-term roster building for the most part. Gotta keep cool and patient. Unless of course one of those top-fifteen (in the Bills' eyes) blue-chippers plummets. Then maybe they deal up. But I don't favor that approach. 

[Nihilarian]

ESPN gives 25 players a grade of 90 or better with Lawrence getting a 97.

 

http://insider.espn.com/nfl/draft/rankings/_/year/2021

 

When talking about this draft Beane mentioned it would be more for the future over an impact starter this season. This leads me to think O line and a future center. 

[Da webster guy]

21 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

 

The draft should NOT be about immediate upgrades in any year (QB aside). It's about long-term roster building for the most part. Gotta keep cool and patient. Unless of course one of those top-fifteen (in the Bills' eyes) blue-chippers plummets. Then maybe they deal up. But I don't favor that approach. 

 

We have spots where a good rookie can be an immediate upgrade and day 1 starter.  Tre White was 27th pick, contributed right away.   Another top corner could do the same.

 

I know its not as fun as Etienne, but CB and Edge are what get you off the field on 3rd down vs KC, who basically moved the ball on us at will every 3rd down we faced them last year in both games because they either had a WR open or Mahomes had 5 seconds or more to throw.   It was embarrassing and we have made no moves in FA to upgrade in that area. 

 

KC has a better line than last year on paper.  We can't come back with the same D and hope things will change just because Star is back.

 

 

 

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

Conundrum?

 

Its a riddle wrapped in an mystery inside an enigma ...

 

But at the end of the day he is going to have to pick someone first round grade or not..

 

If this is the price for being a Top 4 team then I can get used to it..

[LeGOATski]

No matter what they're graded, there will be 32 players picked in the 1st round. I recommend that Beane grabs the best player available. The Bills don't necessarily need a bunch of picks. They're currently a contender with good depth.

[Utah John]

Beane isn't just managing the salary cap.  He's also managing the roster not only for this year but for the future.  As I've been saying for weeks, I think Beane is drafting the BPA in one of the positions where he expects to have a need in 2-3 years.  There won't be a lot of roster spots for many rookies, and there are very few spots in the starting lineup where a rookie will be better than the veteran incumbent.  Maybe EDGE is the exception.  So if he can't get an EDGE rusher he thinks is worth the pick, my personal best guess is that Beane will draft a safety who will be ready to go when either Hyde or Poyer loses a step in a couple of years.  It went without much notice, but the Bills let Dean Marlowe, a good reserve safety, leave during the offseason.  I think Marlowe's roster spot goes to a rookie.  

[GunnerBill]

I have 18 firsts and 4 borderline firsts. 

[machine gun kelly]

4 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

 

We have spots where a good rookie can be an immediate upgrade and day 1 starter.  Tre White was 27th pick, contributed right away.   Another top corner could do the same.

 

I know its not as fun as Etienne, but CB and Edge are what get you off the field on 3rd down vs KC, who basically moved the ball on us at will every 3rd down we faced them last year in both games because they either had a WR open or Mahomes had 5 seconds or more to throw.   It was embarrassing and we have made no moves in FA to upgrade in that area. 

 

KC has a better line than last year on paper.  We can't come back with the same D and hope things will change just because Star is back.

 

 

 

 

 

The problem is more boards than not published on the “1st rd grade” at DE is only two guys.  Phillips and Paye.  Several of the boards only list 4 CB’s, 1 TE, and 2 RB’s.  The most likely if we trade up as we would have to give away our 3rd, or maybe 3rd and 1 5th (swapping 1sts of course) to get to a place to get one of the slots say in the low 20’s is either a CB or RB.  As Noggin mentioned, it might just be best to let the board fall to you unless one that Beane covets is there and then Bam a trade in five minutes.

 

What will be interesting to me is with the third pick does SF get a now QB (Fields, Jones) or later (Lance).  That tells you whether JG is going somewhere.  Also, how many desperate teams overreach for a QB.  I know it’s commonly thought five guys in rd 1, but lots of bad teams get desperate.

 

Should be an interesting night.  If we don’t trade up, day 2 will be a fun Bills day as that is where I think Beane so going to be trading up in the 2nd or 3rd.  By this weekend, I’m going to be drafted out.

[maryland-bills-fan]

I agree that the top 15-20 holds the 1st rounders.   If our BPA from that group drops to #30 the choice is clear.  If not, than a player in the top 40 and an extra pick is the way to go.        A reason why teams would get extra value from trading to get our #30 is the 5th year option on the player drafted in the first round.

 

Options to using the delta draft value of +120, would be to trade up our 2nd or 3rd round picks. Say we trade #30 down to #40 and get 120 draft value points to play with.  (yes, you have to get different teams to tango with you- lets see the sort of things that could happen)

 

#30    #61    #93    Is what we have right now

#40    #49   #93    If we trade down our first and up with our second round pick

#40    #61   #68    If we trade down our first and up with our third round pick.

 

Two players in the top 50 looks like a better choice-  we could get good quality at DE and CB.

 

Another option is to just take that +120 points (worth something at the bottom of the 3rd round #95) and invest it in a 2022 draft pick, which would become (using the bromide that trading a pick this year for a pick next year gets you a one round higher pick next year) a low second round pick (#62) in 2022.  2022 is supposed to be a much richer draft class  and that would give us two second round pick

 

[Bill Murray]

With so many misses and outright busts each and every year in the top 15, these types of pre-draft rankings and ratings aren’t really worth the paper they are written on.  So much goes into whether a player has a successful career from athletic ability to personal motivation, coaching and system, personal life, injuries, and the element of ‘chance’ that life brings to each and every one of us.

 

The bills have youth and depth at almost every position which makes this draft significantly less meaningful to the overall future of the organization.  I agree w trying to trade back and get more picks next year, and also would be in favor of trading the pick for a vet that can help us win now.  Otherwise, cornerback seems to be the deepest position and one we could use more players in so that would be my pick at 30. 

 

Edited April 29, 2021 by Bill Murray

[TBBills]

Actually this might be his easiest since 4 QBs will go early and a few RBs. He definitely has plenty of first round grade talent to choose from at 30.

 

It is funny to watch people on this forum think this since some of you fans have never seen the Bills draft this late.

Edited April 28, 2021 by TBBills

[colin]

i look at draft picks like packs of baseball cards when i was a kid: they are exciting because they could contain some super special card, so the unknown part of it kinda increases the value.

 

i think, particularly this year and with this FO, these guys are looking at each player like a sniper.  bean clearly has total confidence in his scouts and coaches, and will do what he has to in order to get his guy.  i think we see that even moreso this year, where they trade up down and around and for the first 3 picks get exactly who they want, even at what looks like a goofy cost.  i'd rule nothing out at all, and i think draftnik 1st and 2nd round grades won't mean much.

[HOUSE]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I have 18 firsts and 4 borderline firsts. 

 

What a revolting development this is...

 

 

[RangerDave]

9 hours ago, BuffaloBillies said:

My unpopular opinion is... take the guy that helps us win now. If he's a 2nd round draft grade, so what! Best for us is what matters. 10 picks up or down, overvalued/undervalued.... BS. Get our guy and win. 

I am no draft expert at all, but in my mind a player who can be a difference maker for a team would be the definition of a "1st round grade", no?  I understand that people drafted after round 1 can be great players, but pre-draft, those with the "supposed" potential to help a team win now would be drafted first.  

[Mango]

I am not a college guru like @GunnerBill or @NewEra but to me it doesn’t feel like there is any value at DE at 30 other than need. If a top 4 CB drops that low I think you run to the podium. 
 

Otherwise it is BPA. Reaching for a mediocre pass rusher at 30, when you already have a mediocre pass rush, is how franchises get behind the 8 ball long term. 

[JMF2006]

Pick 30 is basically rnd2

 

You make that pick unless some team comes knocking with next years first and 2 or 3 picks in this years draft

[mjt328]

This draft has plenty of talent in the first 2-3 rounds.  There are just so many question marks, due to COVID opt-outs, the shortened season, and incomplete medical checks.  It's a real mess.

 

Guys like Caleb Farley and Jaelen Phillips look like Top-10 guys on tape.  But they are huge medical red-flags.  Some teams may still be OK taking them early, while other teams may take them off their board completely if they can't get a clear report from the doctor. 

 

Usually I would be optimistic we could just sit-back like Ozzie Newsome and take whoever drops.  But the numbers game is just not in our favor this year, and it's hard to see a 1st-Round caliber talent fall all the way to #30.  There are only so many guys who can get pushed down.  Once you get past the first 15-20 players, there is a clear drop-off.  Then I don't see a lot of separation between #21 and the next 30 prospects.

 

If I'm Brandon Beane, my first instinct is to explore a trade into the early 20s.  But if the price is too high, then I'm doing everything in my power to move back.  Pickup a 2022 second rounder.  Get a veteran player tossed in.  Because the value of the guy you pick at #30 is going to be roughly the same as the guy you pick at #40.

 

[TBBills]

This would be true if the Bills needed offensive talent. The defensive talent will be there.

[Don Otreply]

I hear you IM, but like BPA,  1st round grades are quite subjective,  every teams situation is driven by a different set of Needs. 
That and the pundits/mock drafters  are wrong the vast majority of the time, so what they project is of little value to a smart GM, this year Beane is gonna gut punch the league, and they won’t see it coming, it’s gonna be fun to watch it happen, jmo. 

[4merper4mer]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

There are never 30 players with first round grades. We hear this same thing every year, it's just that it hasn't been important to us because we haven't been drafting so far back in a long long time.

 

You hear two general variations on it over and over. First is the "There are 10 - 15 blue chip players" deal. Every year. Then there's the "there aren't (somewhere around 25 usually) first round guys" deal. Again, you hear it pretty much every year.

I’m fine with these idiots in the press saying there are only x number of “blue chip” prospects or even “this year there are only 20 guys with first round grades”, but they ALWAYS have less than 32 “first round grades”.  News flash: There are 32 picks in the first round half the time and 31 in years where the Pats got caught cheating again.  
 

This means over say a 10 year span there should be 315 “first round grades”.  My guess is if you add it all up there are usually about 250.   This makes no sense.  They should not be be called first round grades if that is the case.  Blue chip grades at 250 over 10 years?  Fine.  But the first round grades should add up to about 315.

[bouds]

None of this matters, draft as many guys as you can and hope they develop.

 

Just because you have a 1st round grade doesn't mean you develop into a starter.  I used to be obsessed with the draft, now I just sit back and shrug.  You never ***** know, I was dead wrong about a lot of guys, dead right on a lot.  Biggest Bills miss was Allen, thought he had bust written all over him.

[Just Joshin']

The follow-up question is what is the total grade distribution.  If you move back, are you getting a 3rd round talent in the 2nd?  Getting a 2nd round talent in the 3rd?  You need both pieces of info to make  decision.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

12 hours ago, BuffaloBillies said:

My unpopular opinion is... take the guy that helps us win now. If he's a 2nd round draft grade, so what! Best for us is what matters. 10 picks up or down, overvalued/undervalued.... BS. Get our guy and win. 

Agree. They need an impact player that makes a difference in 2021.  It should be SuperBowl of bust mentality at One Bills Drive.  To me that is a RB or an edge in the first round.  A CB, C, and a 1-tech DT are needed for beyond 2021.  TE is the wild card here too.  Can Knox develop?  Is there another TE besides Pitts in this draft that is an upgrade over Knox? 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

I hear you IM, but like BPA,  1st round grades are quite subjective,  every teams situation is driven by a different set of Needs. 
That and the pundits/mock drafters  are wrong the vast majority of the time, so what they project is of little value to a smart GM, this year Beane is gonna gut punch the league, and they won’t see it coming, it’s gonna be fun to watch it happen, jmo. 

 

I mean the numbers actually bear it out that there is a greater chance of success at the top of the draft. Drafting isn't an exact science and Beane might extract fantastic value at #30 from a guy that others have passed over but most of the guys the mockers have going high will be most of the guys that do go high and the hit rate on them when we look back in 5 years time will almost certainly be higher than the hit rate for guys taken 20-30. As for mocks having no value to Brandon Beane.... well the truth is he uses them. Whether they will do it this year sitting at #30 with so many variables in front I'm not sure but in the past they have run mock drafts among the scouting staff to do scenario planning for what might unfold. 

33 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

The follow-up question is what is the total grade distribution.  If you move back, are you getting a 3rd round talent in the 2nd?  Getting a 2nd round talent in the 3rd?  You need both pieces of info to make  decision.

 

It's a very good point. I go down to #57 on my big board with guys I have a 1st or 2nd round grade on. I don't have a ton of 3rds either but that is a bit sketchier because there will be some 3rd round players I have just not had time to get to. It is not the deepest draft class, a lot fewer guys declared than in recent years... there will be guys who go on day 2 this year who would normally be day 3 players. I'm pretty convinced of that. I don't think it is a year to just stack loads of picks in this draft. I expect a lot of teams trading down will be asking for 2022 capital.

[That's No Moon]

4 hours ago, TBBills said:

Actually this might be his easiest since 4 QBs will go early and a few RBs. He definitely has plenty of first round grade talent to choose from at 30.

 

It is funny to watch people on this forum think this since some of you fans have never seen the Bills draft this late.

To be fair, it has been so long that I'm not sure I remember watching the draft the last time the Bills picked this late. It may have been communicated via telegraph or smoke signals.

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

I am not a college guru like @GunnerBill or @NewEra but to me it doesn’t feel like there is any value at DE at 30 other than need. If a top 4 CB drops that low I think you run to the podium. 
 

Otherwise it is BPA. Reaching for a mediocre pass rusher at 30, when you already have a mediocre pass rush, is how franchises get behind the 8 ball long term. 

But what happens when the top 4 corners are gone before we pick...which will very likely be the case.  At that point, we’ll most likely be drafting a 2nd rd talent, regardless of position.  A 2nd rd defensive end might actually be the BPA @30.  Trading down would be ideal, but it takes two.  
 

I think we’ll be trading up to secure a 1st rd talent.  If we don’t trade up, I really hope that we trade down (unless someone falls into our laps).

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

But what happens when the top 4 corners are gone before we pick...which will very likely be the case.  At that point, we’ll most likely be drafting a 2nd rd talent, regardless of position.  A 2nd rd defensive end might actually be the BPA @30.  Trading down would be ideal, but it takes two.  
 

I think we’ll be trading up to secure a 1st rd talent.  If we don’t trade up, I really hope that we trade down (unless someone falls into our laps).

Normally I favor trade down to acquire more picks.  But that is not the right scenario now. The roster is loaded.  They only have 2 maybe 3 spots on the entire roster that are not settled.  This is the year to move up and get your star RB or pass rusher.  If one of the WRs falls, maybe that is a guy to target.  

If there are no willing partners to trade up, moving back a few spots and picking up a late third or early fourth may be wise.  Then you get 4 players from say 35 to 110 or so, and at slightly less cost.  Beane needs to use those late round picks as capital to move up or just give away for higher rounds next year.  With punter and kicker settled, there is almost zero chance a 5th round or later pick makes the roster.  

[ColoradoBills]

Don't care if it's the 1st or 2nd round but Beane most likely will get a CB.

If he can trade back a few spots and get one in the top of the 2nd it's fine with me.

If he trades up a couple of spots to get one once again fine by me.

It's a critical need also.  No other position is that thin going into next year.

Currently only Tre and Dane Jackson signed as CBs for next year.

Edited April 28, 2021 by ColoradoBills

[Don Otreply]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean the numbers actually bear it out that there is a greater chance of success at the top of the draft. Drafting isn't an exact science and Beane might extract fantastic value at #30 from a guy that others have passed over but most of the guys the mockers have going high will be most of the guys that do go high and the hit rate on them when we look back in 5 years time will almost certainly be higher than the hit rate for guys taken 20-30. As for mocks having no value to Brandon Beane.... well the truth is he uses them. Whether they will do it this year sitting at #30 with so many variables in front I'm not sure but in the past they have run mock drafts among the scouting staff to do scenario planning for what might unfold. 

I hear what you’re saying, but does it not fall into the obvious category that  better players will be higher selections, and have greater odds of success?  Of course Beane uses hypotheticals to organize his methods, that makes obvious sense, but Beane doesn’t share his in work methods with others outside of his circle. What I was referencing is the endless number of talking heads nonstop steam of hypothetical draft scenarios, that in very short order becomes the worthless Babel that it is. 

[Mango]

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

But what happens when the top 4 corners are gone before we pick...which will very likely be the case.  At that point, we’ll most likely be drafting a 2nd rd talent, regardless of position.  A 2nd rd defensive end might actually be the BPA @30.  Trading down would be ideal, but it takes two.  
 

I think we’ll be trading up to secure a 1st rd talent.  If we don’t trade up, I really hope that we trade down (unless someone falls into our laps).

Right. DE could be BPA. I was more commenting on a bunch of posts on this board and thread about how we “have” to draft a DE because that’s the biggest need. 
 

If DE is BPA go for it. I have no issues. 

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, Mango said:

Right. DE could be BPA. I was more commenting on a bunch of posts on this board and thread about how we “have” to draft a DE because that’s the biggest need. 
 

If DE is BPA go for it. I have no issues. 

Copy that.  We’re in position to take BPA.  I suspect that they will do just that