Daryl Williams or Matt Milano - Where does Beane put the money?

[Inigo Montoya]

It looks like the contracts for Milano and Williams are going to be in the same range, around $12-$15mm a year.  The question is who is worth more to the team, Williams or Milano? 

 

My position is that we need to keep Daryl Williams.  He has played at an elite level all season long protecting our franchise QB.  I dread a return to the days of shoddy O-Line play like we saw in JA17's rookie season.  This team has evolved and we are now winning games on offense, not defense.  We need to maximize the ability of Josh and the offense to score points.  This decision all boils down to the fact that I value strong O-Line play above what Milano brings to the defense.

 

Even when Milano was healthy our defense struggled this year.  Milano missed six games this last season due to injury. The Bills' record was 3-3 during those games without Milano losing to Tenn, K.C., and Arizona while beating Miami, Seattle, and the Chargers.  Some would argue the Hail Murray was a fluke and we should have gone 4-2 without Milano.  Two of those loses also came when Josh Allen was playing injured.

 

Williams stayed healthy all season and is now back in his All Pro form and he is only 28 years old.   He should have another 5-6 good years ahead of him.  Nsekhe is also a free agent this season, and while I'm a big Nsekhe fan, he's 35 years old.  I think he would be a great re-sign to continue as our swing tackle for injuries, but I don't think anyone expects him to be able to step in and play a full regular season and a deep playoff run. 

 

Could we draft another RT?  Sure we could and I expect we will, but I doubt Beane and McDermott want to roll the dice on the draft producing a starting rookie RT to protect Josh Allen.  Similarly, I don't think McBeane wants to count on Cody Ford as their starting RT.  He didn't play well there when he had the chance and is now coming off an injury.  I don't see a free agent RT out there who would be a bargain either.  It looks like Daryl Williams would be a top 3 RT on the market if he does hit free agency.  Trent Williams in San Fran and Taylor Morton Carolina are the other two and both are expected to get resigned and stay where they are.

 

Losing Daryl Williams creates a bigger hole for the Bills to fill than losing Matt Milano.  In a perfect world we resign both Milano and Williams.  It's more likely though that Beane has to chose just one, and I don't see the sense in giving a huge contract to Josh Allen sometime in the next year while cutting corners on his O-Line at the same time. 

[NewEra]

Not Milano

[gonzo1105]

Honestly, I don’t think their money is going to either one of them. Milano is gone I think we can al read those tea leaves. Williams reminds me of Jordan Phillips. Sign him for basically nothing, he flourishes for a season, goes and gets a big contract and goes back to being average. 
 

I think your going to see more of an overhaul to this roster than you think particularly on the offensive and defensive lines. You can do these types of things once you know you have a great QB. 

[Jerboski]

Williams 

then pay one of the pass rushers on the Market

 

milano isn’t worth this type of money 

[stinky finger]

If it's between the 2, it has to be Williams.

 

Not at all surprised if we don't see either back.

[B-Man]

1 minute ago, inaugural balls said:

If it's between the 2, it has to be Williams.

 

Not at all surprised if we don't see either back.

 

 

Well, that's the real point............it's not between the two.

 

Beane would deal with them as is.

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

Looking like both are gone...

[Rc2catch]

43 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Honestly, I don’t think their money is going to either one of them. Milano is gone I think we can al read those tea leaves. Williams reminds me of Jordan Phillips. Sign him for basically nothing, he flourishes for a season, goes and gets a big contract and goes back to being average. 
 

I agreed 100% until the last part. 
Williams has always played as a top 5 right tackle when healthy. 
He had some injures in Carolina and then they started moving him all over the line and he struggled. 
But a healthy williams at RT is all pro level. This wasn’t the first time he played on a contract year so that shouldn’t be a motivational thing. 
I’m not advocating to pay him or let him go I’ll trust the team, but wanted to point out this wasn’t a fluke season he’s always been a great RT when he is healthy. 

[Bing Bong]

59 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Milano missed six games this last season due to injury. The Bills' record was 3-3 during those games without Milano

So in other words the Bills went 10-0 with Milano in..

[Shaw66]

23 minutes ago, FormerlyPT5P said:

So in other words the Bills went 10-0 with Milano in..

Hmm.  That's impressive. 

 

Still, Beane used words describing Milano going to the market that he's used in the past when he knows he isn't going to match what the guy will get in the market.  So, I'd bet they keep Williams.  

[BuffaloRebound]

I don’t envy Beane this offseason.  He’s got a lot of tough decisions to make.  

[MiltonWaddams]

26 minutes ago, FormerlyPT5P said:

So in other words the Bills went 10-0 with Milano in..

Well....10-1. He was not a difference maker in the AFC championship.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Even when Milano was healthy our defense struggled this year.  Milano missed six games this last season due to injury. The Bills' record was 3-3 during those games without Milano losing to Tenn, K.C., and Arizona while beating Miami, Seattle, and the Chargers.  Some would argue the Hail Murray was a fluke and we should have gone 4-2 without Milano.  Two of those loses also came when Josh Allen was playing injured.

 

I would just like to point out here, as I did elsewhere, that in the 10 regular season games where Milano played and the Bills won, he played more than 50% of the snaps in exactly 3 (Rams, Raiders and 2nd NWE).

 

30 minutes ago, FormerlyPT5P said:

So in other words the Bills went 10-0 with Milano in..

 

I'm not saying that Milano isn't a damned good player who made a difference on D, but "correlation is not causation" and I kind of find it hard to argue that he was a key to defensive in those games when at times he only played 20-30% of the snaps.  If we wanted to conduct a season long experiment into the look of "life without Milano" for the Bills D, this season kind of provided it.

 

4 minutes ago, MiltonWaddams said:

Well....10-1. He was not a difference maker in the AFC championship.

 

If you're counting playoff games 12-1

59 minutes ago, inaugural balls said:

If it's between the 2, it has to be Williams.

Not at all surprised if we don't see either back.

 

I wouldn't be too shocked if we try to find a player in the spot Williams was in in 2020 FA, and draft an OT

 

My reservation about Williams is based on the film cutups I've seen and film I watched, he was not what we'd like to better succeed at the run game.

 

[Virgil]

I wouldn’t pay Williams over 8-9 mil.  I’d rather take my chances in FA or the draft 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

I wouldn’t pay Williams over 8-9 mil.  I’d rather take my chances in FA or the draft 

 

I can see an argument either way. 

 

On the one had, he solidified the position.

 

On the other, you can't improve the run game without improving the OL, and you can't improve the OL without making some change.

[LABILLBACKER]

Williams is more valuable but he's not worth 12M. I could see Beane not keeping either and diving into the draft. He might try a RT @ 30 and look for a hybrid LB soon after that.

[Virgil]

16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I can see an argument either way. 

 

On the one had, he solidified the position.

 

On the other, you can't improve the run game without improving the OL, and you can't improve the OL without making some change.

I’m not going to do actual research before typing this, so assume I’m wrong.  
 

Quality teams can only afford to have so many positions making millions in the double digits.  We already pay our LT and have to possibly replace Feliciano too.  He may be worth more than 10 on the open market in a year where the cap grows, but not to us.  
 

I do agree that we need to figure out what the issue with the run blocking is.  If they feel they can upgrade in the draft, pay Milano and Feliciano, I’d be better with that.  

[Aussie Joe]

21 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I wouldn’t pay Williams over 8-9 mil.  I’d rather take my chances in FA or the draft 

 

I would go to $10 Mil .... A three year deal  at $30M that you can move on from the last year if he isnt cutting it..

 

But with Moton supposedly getting the franchise tag.. Someone will pay Williams more... Could be a pretty bad team through like the Bengals or Jags...

[whatdrought]

Milano is a better player, OT is worth more than LB.

 

that being said, over 10m AAV for either feels foolish for us at this point. I’d prefer Williams at sub 10, but I doubt that’s happening.

[Aussie Joe]

I see possible draft options for Milano like Cox, Surratt in the 2nd...

 

I dont see an easy replacement for Williams.. even at 30... You are more than likely reaching for someone I think, like Eichenberg  or Radunz...  I think Leatherwood projects as a Guard...

 

 

 

 

[gobills404]

Milano is better but Daryl Williams is healthier and more valuable as a tackle. Plus I feel better about Klein at LB than I do about anyone else on this team at RT.

[PrimeTime101]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I wouldn't be too shocked if we try to find a player in the spot Williams was in in 2020 FA, and draft an OT

 

My reservation about Williams is based on the film cutups I've seen and film I watched, he was not what we'd like to better succeed at the run game.

HMM I watched a lot of this too. But.. Is it plausible that this is happening cause of horrible guard play?

[HappyDays]

I think people are overestimating what Williams will get in the open market. He's coming off one good year and teams are already making difficult decisions with their own players. No one in this market is going to overpay a RT. 3 years for $25 million should get it done IMO. Something like $7 million in 2021, $8 million in 2022, and $10 million in 2023 with a potential out after year 2. And I believe we could easily afford that contract.

[billsfan89]

I would let Milano walk. Milano is an important component to the defense but now that the Bills have a young franchise QB and a solid O-line in front of him you keep your most important free agent along the line. I also think you can find an impact LB in the draft a lot easier to make an immediate impact. Whereas O-line play is not as plug and play as it used to be.

[purple haze]

5 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

Honestly, I don’t think their money is going to either one of them. Milano is gone I think we can al read those tea leaves. Williams reminds me of Jordan Phillips. Sign him for basically nothing, he flourishes for a season, goes and gets a big contract and goes back to being average. 
 

I think your going to see more of an overhaul to this roster than you think particularly on the offensive and defensive lines. You can do these types of things once you know you have a great QB. 

Williams was an All Pro before his injury.   He ain’t Jordan Phillips.

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Looking like both are gone...

 

At this point this is my expectation. It is pretty much common knowledge at this point that Milano will not sign before free agency. There is a very small residual chance he doesn't get what he wants on the market and comes back but he is pretty close to certain to be gone. 

 

Williams could possibly come back but I think again it is more likely that happens after he has tested his market than before.

35 minutes ago, purple haze said:

Williams was an All Pro before his injury.   He ain’t Jordan Phillips.

 

2nd team all pro, but you are correct Williams had three very good seasons in Carolina, then an injury hit year, then a bad year in 2019 where he played 4 different positions. 2020 was not an exception for him it was a return to previous form.

[machine gun kelly]

Inigo, my Spaniard friend, and no I don’t have six fingers before you ask (still is my favorite family movie), you pose a question my Uncle Gene would pose.  So Daniel (my real first name, but only followed with Edward, my middle name when trouble with my mom), would you like the liver or the Lima beans?

 

I don’t relish GM’s of perennial good teams with excellent records (can’t believe I’m saying that about the Bills, but feels awesome), the difficult decisions they have to make about excellent players that they can’t keep.

 

If pushed for an answer, Id say Williams.  I’m on record hundreds of times how much I love Milano, but Williams was not the o line problem this year.

[Mountain Man]

Neither. Pay John Feliciano instead. 

[DCbillsfan]

Nice writeup OP.  I like Milano but someone is likely to offer a ridiculous amount of money for him.  So I believe Milano is gone.

 

Williams could be offered some serious money as well but I think Beane will come through here.  The Bills have nobody behind Williams so for me it's the top priority.  I could also see the Bills drafting an OL guy early in the draft.  

[BarleyNY]

5 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Inigo, my Spaniard friend, and no I don’t have six fingers before you ask (still is my favorite family movie), you pose a question my Uncle Gene would pose.  So Daniel (my real first name, but only followed with Edward, my middle name when trouble with my mom), would you like the liver or the Lima beans?

 

I don’t relish GM’s of perennial good teams with excellent records (can’t believe I’m saying that about the Bills, but feels awesome), the difficult decisions they have to make about excellent players that they can’t keep.

 

If pushed for an answer, Id say Williams.  I’m on record hundreds of times how much I love Milano, but Williams was not the o line problem this year.

Agree on Princess Bride.  And on the players.  It’s really tough to make this call unless we know what they are asking for in their contracts.  Spotrac has Milano’s MV at 3 years, $41.5M and Williams’ MV at 2 years, $15.7M.

 

Using those numbers I don’t see how there’s much of a decision to be made. You obviously take Williams.  I think Milano’s contract estimate is high and Williams’ is low, but not enough to change my mind.

 

I love Milano and he is a damn fine coverage LB but he’s not great against the run.  Williams it’s pretty darn good in both run and pass blocking. If we can only retain one, then he’s my guy.

Edited March 8, 2021 by BarleyNY

[machine gun kelly]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

Agree on Princess Bride.  And on the players.  It’s really tough to make this call unless we know what their asking for in their contracts.  Spotrac has Milano’s MV at 3 years, $41.5M and Williams’ MV at 2 years, $15.7M.

 

Using those numbers I don’t see how there’s much of a decision to be made. You obviously take Williams.  I think Milano’s contract estimate is high and Williams’ is low, but Not enough to change my mind

Barley my friend,  I enjoyed one or two of yours this weekend.  It’s a running joke between he and I.  Now cool up those hops for this weekend.  On football, excellent points.  It’s a significant risk to think we can do a mid round draft on a RT  and expect To get the production of Williams.

[Matt_In_NH]

FA's get overpaid.....the numbers are always more than people think players are worth for the higher end guys.

[Billzgobowlin]

I don't think either gets paid anywhere near that amount.  This is going to be a long free agency.  Milano has too much of an injury history and too many linemen on the market to be paid especially this year where everyones cap drops.

[Southern_Bills]

I'm curious to see this Free Agency kick off. We are putting old value contracts in our heads, fact is no teams have much money.

 

They are not going to be eager to give up 12m+ contracts to just anyone. You also have to remember with all the veteran cuts for salary dumps the market will be somewhat saturated. 

 

Supply and demand, like I said, I'm just curious to see how this shakes out.

[BarleyNY]

11 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

I'm curious to see this Free Agency kick off. We are putting old value contracts in our heads, fact is no teams have much money.

 

They are not going to be eager to give up 12m+ contracts to just anyone. You also have to remember with all the veteran cuts for salary dumps the market will be somewhat saturated. 

 

Supply and demand, like I said, I'm just curious to see how this shakes out.

It is expected that mid tier free agents will be the ones to take it in the shorts in times like these.  There will be lots of one year deals for players who don’t get the offers they’re expecting and who want to bet on themselves.

 

The expectation of the big dip this season along with a very sizable jump next is the key there.  But that will also allow teams that want a higher level player on a long term deal to pay them well.  They can minimize this year’s cap hit and then have plenty of space in 2022 and beyond to handle the much larger hits.  People will be surprised by the size of the contracts the elite FAs sign.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, gobills404 said:

Milano is better but Daryl Williams is healthier and more valuable as a tackle. Plus I feel better about Klein at LB than I do about anyone else on this team at RT.

 

I love Milano and I appreciate what he brought and until this season, I've been defending him as "not out with injuries that much, really".  On the other hand, the team had to do without him most of the year,  *even when he was active* -
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MilaMa00/gamelog/2020/
After the first NE game when they decided to put him in IR, it seemed as though the coaches realized they couldn't plug another player into Milano's role and had to re-design the defense without him and they did.

 

TBH I feel as though we'd have a better D going with Klein and a rookie at Will, but adding a stud pass-rusher on DL, so if we need to spend money, that's where I'd like to see us put it.  Certainly Milano didn't help us shut down the TE in the Colts game.

 

I agree with you that I feel better about the D without Milano than I do about the OL with ?Cody Ford? or platooning a low budget RT/rookie, although I liked Williams run-blocking less than I thought I would before I watched film.

9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I think people are overestimating what Williams will get in the open market. He's coming off one good year and teams are already making difficult decisions with their own players. No one in this market is going to overpay a RT. 3 years for $25 million should get it done IMO. Something like $7 million in 2021, $8 million in 2022, and $10 million in 2023 with a potential out after year 2. And I believe we could easily afford that contract.

 

Supply and demand, sir.  Supply and demand. 

 

It's not just one good year for Williams as others have pointed out - it's an apparent return to previous form.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

11 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

I see possible draft options for Milano like Cox, Surratt in the 2nd...

 

I dont see an easy replacement for Williams.. even at 30... You are more than likely reaching for someone I think, like Eichenberg  or Radunz...  I think Leatherwood projects as a Guard...

 

 

 

 

Smart approach to factor this into the decision. If Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah were to fall to us at #30, he could genuinely be an upgrade over Milano. Love that guy, but he'll likely be gone by the early twenties. There's a few LBs on Day 2 like Cox (2nd Rd- perfect fit) and Surratt (3rd Rd as he needs a lot of development IMO) and it's probably easier to find a Milano replacement in the later rounds than OT.

 

A lot of the podcast guys like Joe Marino and the Cover 1 crew have spoken about the great value of selecting an OT at pick #30 relative to most other positions. OT is one of the most highly paid positions and it would be great to have a stellar RT on a cheap rookie deal especially since we have extended Dawkins on the other side (same applies to Tre White and finding a young, athletic CB2 in the draft to pair with him). Hopeful that Teven Jenkins falls to us (love the power and nastiness he plays with). Seeing Jalen Mayfield mocked to us a decent amount as well, need to watch more tape on him. Radunz or Eichenberg in the 2nd possibly.

 

Would love to see a draft of Teven Jenkins (#30), Jabril Cox (#61), and Tyler Shelvin or Alim McNeill (#94). Will any of them make it to those picks, not sure. But Cox is a natural Milano replacement and perfect fit in our defense and Jenkins and either DT would provide some needed talent/youth/physicality in the trenches. 

 

Would be just as interested in a couple trade downs as I love the 2nd-4th round talent and depth in this class. Who would you like in the draft? Go Bills!

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Smart approach to factor this into the decision. If Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah were to fall to us at #30, he could genuinely be an upgrade over Milano. Love that guy, but he'll likely be gone by the early twenties. There's a few LBs on Day 2 like Cox (2nd Rd- perfect fit) and Surratt (3rd Rd as he needs a lot of development IMO) and it's probably easier to find a Milano replacement in the later rounds than OT.

 

A lot of the podcast guys like Joe Marino and the Cover 1 crew have spoken about the great value of selecting an OT at pick #30 relative to most other positions. OT is one of the most highly paid positions and it would be great to have a stellar RT on a cheap rookie deal especially since we have extended Dawkins on the other side (same applies to Tre White and finding a young, athletic CB2 in the draft to pair with him). Hopeful that Teven Jenkins falls to us (love the power and nastiness he plays with). Seeing Jalen Mayfield mocked to us a decent amount as well, need to watch more tape on him. Radunz or Eichenberg in the 2nd possibly.

 

Would love to see a draft of Teven Jenkins (#30), Jabril Cox (#61), and Tyler Shelvin or Alim McNeill (#94). Will any of them make it to those picks, not sure. But Cox is a natural Milano replacement and perfect fit in our defense and Jenkins and either DT would provide some needed talent/youth/physicality in the trenches. 

 

Would be just as interested in a couple trade downs as I love the 2nd-4th round talent and depth in this class. Who would you like in the draft? Go Bills!

 

 

 

Offensive tackle is the strongest day 1 and 2 position in this draft IMO. I'm not as sold on Jenkins at #30. I think he is a pure right tackle which limits the ceiling a bit, if I'm spending a first I ideally want an Orlando Brown Jr type who is my go to answer at left tackle if my franchise guy goes down. If they go another position in the first because the OT class is so deep though, and a Jenkins was there in the 2nd or if they traded back picked up extra picks and went with him in the 2nd I'd be more content. 

[BuffaloRebound]

If Beane couldn’t find a RT at pick 38 (Ford) in the draft a few years ago, I hope he’s not thinking he’s gonna replace Williams with a draft pick this year.  Can’t mess around with Right Tackle position.  Tag Williams if you have to.  

[DrDawkinstein]

17 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

If Beane couldn’t find a RT at pick 38 (Ford) in the draft a few years ago, I hope he’s not thinking he’s gonna replace Williams with a draft pick this year.  Can’t mess around with Right Tackle position.  Tag Williams if you have to.  

 

If it were up to me, I'd re-sign Williams AND draft a RT at #30.

 

Sign Williams to a 3 year deal, and draft someone to develop him. Make it so that 3rd year of Williams' contract is an easy out, and there you go.

 

I agree, I think it would be a bit of mismanagement hoping/expecting a draft pick to come in and start at OT right away. But getting a guy now, who you can coach up to take over the job in a year or two, is a good way to handle it.