Let’s talk Ike Boettger

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

If the Bills break the bank on Josh now, pretty sure can't keep them all.   We need some cap space analysis on this board stat.   Does anyone know what Beane is up against if he has to spend $40m of his cap on Allen next year?   That is the real issue here.. cap management.   This will be by far the largest off season issue.. how much of this roster can be kept?  

 

He won't have to spend $40m of his cap next year on Josh. You keep the 2021 and 2022 hits as they are pretty much. You might account for a bit of signing bonus in those years but by and large we have two more years where Josh's cap number is below market value even though he has been paid. 

[Rc2catch]

Williams has totally revived his career here and is back to an all pro form at right tackle. 
Even if/when the cap goes down he’s going to get a huge payday. 
Probably in the Jack Conklin range. 
I don’t think Beane is going to invest that kind of money. 

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, Bferra13 said:

Helluva time we live in where Lee Smith gets 3 mil a year. Im not bashing him(okay maybe a little), i know he is a fine blocker. But dam...

 

 

25th highest TE avg. salary in the league.

 

Just below Ryan Griffin, Maxx Williams, Darren Fells, Noah Fant, Levine Toilolo and Logan Thomas, and just above Josh HIll, Nick Vannett, OJ Howard, Hayden Hurst, Evan Engram and Adam Shaheen. The veterans there, the guys who aren't on rookie contracts, are not wildly better, if better.

 

And he's better than a fine blocker, he's a damn good blocker. That's not nothing. It's something they need.

 

Will he be here next year? Dunno. They are going to be working hard to save money. Some people they might well like to keep are going to have to go. He could be one.

 

 

30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He won't have to spend $40m of his cap next year on Josh. You keep the 2021 and 2022 hits as they are pretty much. You might account for a bit of signing bonus in those years but by and large we have two more years where Josh's cap number is below market value even though he has been paid. 

 

 

 

This.

Edited January 20, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Rochesterfan]

35 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

If the Bills break the bank on Josh now, pretty sure can't keep them all.   We need some cap space analysis on this board stat.   Does anyone know what Beane is up against if he has to spend $40m of his cap on Allen next year?   That is the real issue here.. cap management.   This will be by far the largest off season issue.. how much of this roster can be kept?  

 

Most likely they will do a deal similar to Tre and Mahomes where it is an extension to the current contract after they pick up the 5th year option.  Therefore his real cap hit does not hit the Bills until 2022 with the new NFL TV deal.

 

Allen’s cap hit next year will not change much even if he signs a 10 yr 500 million deal that exceeds Mahomes and I expect they will work on something even more team friendly.

 

The timing for the Allen extension is great as the Cap should rise significantly by the time his 40 million hits the cap.

[jwhit34]

I just looked at the cap page and the primary takeaway is that the Bills/Beane have done a masterful job so far structuring contracts. Outside of the cornerstones they have identified (White, Dawkins, Diggs and soon Allen and Edmunds), they can get out of almost any contract without a huge dead cap hit. Three prime examples: Jefferson, Butler and John Brown. All would have about a $1 million dead cap hit but if they want to move on from any they can save $7-9 million each. Morse would be a $5 million dead cap hit but they would still save $5 million. 

 

Bottom line is they have a good track record now and I think they will figure out how to keep everyone they want to keep. 

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

Thought the discussion was about Williams? JA certainly will impact the salary cap but think Bills will structure it in a way to best keep as many good players as possible. Morse, Yeldon, Winters, Norman added to Murphy, TN, and Kroft. Each player while part of great depth have an option to replace (again not ideal). This creates 30-40 M allowing Williams and potentially Milano to sign for average of 10M each. Won’t be easy but can be done. 

 

 

I'm not quite clear on how you think Yeldon, Winters, Norman, Murphy and Kroft are going to save us money. And I have no idea who TN is, but I assume like the others he's not under contract next year. None of them are signed for next year. Somebody will have to be signed just to replace their spots on the roster. The very very low amount of money left to us on the cap next year ($1.5M)  is already accounting for their absence. We have $1.5M left, with only 41 guys on the roster.  Their leaving does not save us money.

 

It might be possible to keep Williams, but if we sign Feliciano and Milano, pay the $6 or so mill that our draftees will take and then sign the 5 - 10 or so more guys who will be necessary when we make some cuts, we're going to be squeezed. It will depend on who gets cut, obviously, and we can maybe kick a few cans down the road, but this isn't going to be easy.

 

 

16 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

I just looked at the cap page and the primary takeaway is that the Bills/Beane have done a masterful job so far structuring contracts. Outside of the cornerstones they have identified (White, Dawkins, Diggs and soon Allen and Edmunds), they can get out of almost any contract without a huge dead cap hit. Three prime examples: Jefferson, Butler and John Brown. All would have about a $1 million dead cap hit but if they want to move on from any they can save $7-9 million each. Morse would be a $5 million dead cap hit but they would still save $5 million. 

 

Bottom line is they have a good track record now and I think they will figure out how to keep everyone they want to keep. 

 

 

Fair enough, but if they cut Jefferson, Butler or John Brown, or whoever else, they will be creating a lineup hole that they will have to spend money to fill.

Edited January 20, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Buffalo Boy]

10 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Beans collects offensive lineman in the offseason like a kid in a candy store. Every year he snatches up vets and young talents. The past few years he’s flipped a few players for late round draft picks, and I expect this trend to continue. 
 

I don’t see any immediate trades being pursued once the new league year starts, but I fully expect him to try and retain all of the guys you listed AND bring in more competition across the board. 

   Our pass pro was absolutely amazing this year, especially when you think what the prevailing opinion of it was before the season.

    I would like to see Beane focus/ take a flyer on some maulers who downhill block better than pass protect. 
    I realize our backs need an upgrade too but we need to create the ability to run earlier in games.

[Matt_In_NH]

10 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

i don’t really see Morse, Brown I can def see. They are set obviously with Beasley and Diggs. I think the emergence of Gabe Davis , the signing of Kenny Stills, and still having the possibility of McKenzie and Hodgins in the wings could spell the end for Brown  

Stills and McKenzie will be UFA' I believe.

[Buffalo Boy]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He won't have to spend $40m of his cap next year on Josh. You keep the 2021 and 2022 hits as they are pretty much. You might account for a bit of signing bonus in those years but by and large we have two more years where Josh's cap number is below market value even though he has been paid. 

   I know it’s in another thread but I get the feeling Josh will work with them to  keep weapons.

   He is a thoughtful Alpha male which is a rare commodity.

[Matt_In_NH]

10 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I think we cut Morse for the cap savings.

 

Dawkins - Ford - Feliciano - Boettger - Williams 

I suppose that is possible But they will save like 4.8 million vs the cap, they will probably have to spend more to sign Feliciano.  But long term that may be better with Morse's history of concussions.  Not that he has missed any real time though, Morse has been a good solidier.

10 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

I'd keep all of em. Continuity is good on the Oline. And Ford will have a role when he returns since the Oline is always vulnerable to injuries.

 

Sure, but the reality is there is a cap and you have to make sound decisions to stay competitive today and in the future.  They could sign Feliciano and Williams and Milano and give Josh his extension. But that will require restructures and maybe parting ways with other players.  You have to believe in your system of bringing guys like Boettger along, there needs to be future Boettger's to fill gaps of guys you strategically elect not to sign.

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

   I know it’s in another thread but I get the feeling Josh will work with them to  keep weapons.

   He is a thoughtful Alpha male which is a rare commodity.

 

I am sure he will be as flexible as possible in structuring it. I don't see him leaving money on the table though. 

[Nineforty]

10 hours ago, UConn James said:

There’s no chance we can afford to resign Williams. He’s been a stud all year and shut down Watt & Bosa. He will get PAID and he absolutely deserves it. But having a third guy on the OL making $10-13M/year just isn’t feasible. Maybe especially since the refs are allowing holds unless they’re obvious & egregious, it would be easier filling that hole than an honest to god pass / edge rusher or re-upping Milano. We thank him for his service and wish him the best. It’ll either be Ford, draft pick, or another cheaper pick-up.

The lack of holding calls, if it holds up over multiple seasons, definitely should have teams reevaluating their valuations of olinemen 

[BigBuff423]

10 hours ago, elijah said:

I don’t understand the sudden movement to get rid of John Brown & Mitch Morse for cap savings. All we have to resign are Feliciano, Daryl Williams & Matt Milano. 

 

Will be hard to figure it out with a tight cap, but there’s still draft picks to replace one of them if they have to walk. Whatever the answer, whether it be draft picks or restructures, I doubt the Bills will cut a quality starter in either Morse or Brown. 

 

As for the question, resign both Feliciano & Williams if possible. Let Ford start at the beginning of the year in a big prove it year, and pull him in favor of Boettger if need be. 

 

Dawkins - Feliciano - Morse - Ford - Williams with Boettger as an insurance policy if Ford doesn’t pan out should be just fine. 

 

I like John Brown as well and think he adds a speed dynamic this Offense needs, but his Dead Cap hit next year is $1.6 mill vs. the full $7.9 million. That's $6.3 million savings in a year when Cap Space will be premium and there are other needs the team will have to consider. I'm NOT saying the Bills shouldn't keep him, but I am saying it's worth a strong review. 

[SoCal Deek]

I believe a lot depends on Sunday and beyond. If players think this team is building towards something bigger they’re going to be anxious to sign and stay. If they win the Super Bowl (can’t believe I typed those words) then there’ll be a bit more of an exodus, looking for a pay day elsewhere, having already reached the mountain top. Just my two cents. 

[BigBuff423]

Also, more specific on topic, I think Boettger has been underrated and strong in ways that *don't* get him noticed. Ike has been, IMO, the epitome of what good coaching does: take raw talent and work with it to become its full potential. To that end, credit McD and the Offensive staff in getting Ike to be much improved and maybe even, really, really good. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Feliciano, Morse, Williams  Of these three I think there will be two of them on next years roster.  Which two can't say for certain, think the first priority will be to sign Feliciano, next will try to sign Williams, likely at the expense of cutting Morse to free money to sign Williams.  If they can't sign Williams, then maybe Morse stays.  It's also possible Morse retires too.

 

Either way they line will be short one player even with the return of Ford.  I suspect they will draft an interior lineman fairly high, 2nd or 3rd round.  Boettger could start next year, but maybe 5 to 6 weeks into the season could see the rookie taking over the starting slot.  Regardless Boettger will likely be on the roster as a backup.  Maybe Bates also returns as a backup and they also sign an experienced backup too.

 

Would prefer Morse being the odd man out rather than Williams as creates a stronger group and easier/cheaper to find an interior lineman than a tackle.  I'd try to draft a lineman with both guard and center experience if possible.

[thenorthremembers]

11 hours ago, gobills404 said:

Here we go again with the "cut morse" takes. The dude is one of the best pass blocking centers in football and we only save $5 million by cutting him. I don't get it.

Yeah I dont get it either.   So many more ways to save money than cutting good players.   Thats the Whaley way of doing things, and over time it gets you in cap jail.  I think it makes a lot more sense to draft well, and then move players when its clear the younger players are better.  In the case of Brown and Morse, they dont have better players, so the millions they may save isnt equal to the impact of having less talent on your team.

 

The smarter way of doing things is restructuring existing contracts to free up cap space.   With guys like Hyde coming up on the last year of his contract the Bills would be better off extending him, and moving more of his contract into 2022 and 2023 when the cap is higher.   Thank God we have an intelligent group in the front office now.

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, Sad Fan said:

I didn't know this ^^ really good to see as he struggled last year with penalties

 

Actually last year he had more of a reputation than actual penalties according to counts.

 

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

[gjv001]

Hopefully, Beane and his cap team are working on a strategy to keep Feliciano, Williams, and Milano.

[delirious]

12 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I think we cut Morse for the cap savings.

 

Dawkins - Ford - Feliciano - Boettger - Williams 

 

I can easily see this happening. I could see the Bills drafting the best center available in the first couple rounds.  Let Feliciano play center and the kid drafted play guard for their first year. Eric Wood started out as a RG playing beside Geoff Hangartner. 

[CaptnCoke11]

Restructure Diggs.  Add a year to his deal and move money around.  I head Joe Marino on his show say this.  Buffalo would save 10 million on the cap in the scenario he laid out.  

Edited January 20, 2021 by CaptnCoke11

[BullBuchanan]

Ford sucks and it was obvious our line suffered while he was in there. For the life of me I can't understand how folks are slotting him back in the starting lineup. 

He should be traded for a late round pick or cut once healthy.

[appoo]

You gotta understand that 80% of what the Bills OLine does is pass block, which basically hides Boettger. 

 

I don't believe this is a sustainable way of playing offense. Right now the Bills have an elite Z and an elite slot.  That's why the Bills can drop back 75% of the time and pass and still win. You actually saw the consequences of that against the Ravens, when Beasley wasn't himself, the Bills offense had just a single TD against a defense with above average but not great secondary talent, and brought almost no extra pressure.  

 

Going forward, the Bills are going to require a functioning run game, and you're not going to get that with Ike Boetger as your starting guard IMO. 

 

I actually think the play would be to keep Mongo over Williams to help facilitate that, and maybe use a 2nd round pick on a RT or a veteran FA who's ok with a cheap deal on a winning team. 

 

Ford and Feliciano are plus run guards. 

Edited January 20, 2021 by appoo

[bigK14094]

Not sure about the D side.  Edmunds, Milano are both important and coming up soon.  The dip in the cap for next year will hurt retention for sure.  We are gonna need some good draft picks who can play some.  But, playing rookies isn't McD's style  (yeh, ok, Moss)  I wonder about Edmunds...good sometimes, but , not in the same class as Allen.  Problem is I t hink objective thought by Bean/McD might be clouded here because Edmunds was their first round pick.  Same problem with Ford, although on the hoof he does look like a tackle.  If I were Josh's negotiator, I would wait for the cap to go back up to get the best deal for him.  Josh will be paid, likely 20odd percent of the cap......easier way to think about it.  25% of 175 mil is about 40.  But, 25% of 200 is 50.......we'll see.

[MJS]

Ford is on his rookie deal. No reason to trade him.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, gjv001 said:

Hopefully, Beane and his cap team are working on a strategy to keep Feliciano, Williams, and Milano.

 

I'd be surprised if they can keep all three without Morse or Brown being cut. 

48 minutes ago, appoo said:

You gotta understand that 80% of what the Bills OLine does is pass block, which basically hides Boettger. 

 

I don't believe this is a sustainable way of playing offense. Right now the Bills have an elite Z and an elite slot.  That's why the Bills can drop back 75% of the time and pass and still win. You actually saw the consequences of that against the Ravens, when Beasley wasn't himself, the Bills offense had just a single TD against a defense with above average but not great secondary talent, and brought almost no extra pressure.  

 

Going forward, the Bills are going to require a functioning run game, and you're not going to get that with Ike Boetger as your starting guard IMO. 

 

I actually think the play would be to keep Mongo over Williams to help facilitate that, and maybe use a 2nd round pick on a RT or a veteran FA who's ok with a cheap deal on a winning team. 

 

Ford and Feliciano are plus run guards. 

 

Boettger is definitely better pass protecting than run blocking but this is a pass first offense and pass first offense it will stay. They have actually run the ball better with Ike in than they did with Ford in as well FWIW. There are other factor that play into that for sure but it is worth remembering. 

[Lagoon Blues]

One of the best things about winning is most guys will want to stay if the money is reasonable I would think.  Maybe I am wrong.

Edited January 20, 2021 by Lagoon Blues

[SCBills]

55 minutes ago, appoo said:

You gotta understand that 80% of what the Bills OLine does is pass block, which basically hides Boettger. 

 

I don't believe this is a sustainable way of playing offense. Right now the Bills have an elite Z and an elite slot.  That's why the Bills can drop back 75% of the time and pass and still win. You actually saw the consequences of that against the Ravens, when Beasley wasn't himself, the Bills offense had just a single TD against a defense with above average but not great secondary talent, and brought almost no extra pressure.  

 

Going forward, the Bills are going to require a functioning run game, and you're not going to get that with Ike Boetger as your starting guard IMO. 

 

I actually think the play would be to keep Mongo over Williams to help facilitate that, and maybe use a 2nd round pick on a RT or a veteran FA who's ok with a cheap deal on a winning team. 

 

Ford and Feliciano are plus run guards. 

 

I suppose we could be at a disadvantage when our #2 and #4 WR's are banged up and we have to play a top end secondary in a windstorm. 

 

Luckily, that circumstance doesn't come around too often. 

 

Edited January 20, 2021 by SCBills

[4BillsintheBurgh]

17 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I suppose we could be at a disadvantage when our #2 and #4 WR's are banged up and we have to play a top end secondary in a windstorm. 

 

Luckily, that circumstance doesn't come around too often. 

 

There will be a different tune sung around here if we blow a lead this weekend late in the game because we are averaging 2.5 yards a carry when we need to kill the clock.

 

I don't watch the all-22 at this point so I try to take those folks word for it, but we don't run the ball well and it seems like opinions are split as to why. Morse is supposedly not good at run blocking but if he was the only one that was bad I would think we could scheme around it. It seems to me watching casually Boettger does have issues in the run game too. In order for us to get better something needs to change. I don't know if Boettger can put on some weight/strength to be better at it. 

 

I also look at Mongo and Williams and think it would have been a lot better to try and sign them earlier in the season if they were indeed what we are looking for on the oline. And maybe Beane did contact their respective agents to discuss what the contract should look like. With the run we're making these guys are going to get whatever they want in FA because they can pass block in a passing league. Beane may make an offer but I can't see how it would be market value because I don't think it's in the best interest of the long term competitiveness of the team.   

 

And in the end while I would like to keep Williams first and foremost, I think we will be relying on JA to manage getting rid of the ball quicker etc when some of our current oline are replaced.

[Punching Bag]

1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Restructure Diggs.  Add a year to his deal and move money around.  I head Joe Marino on his show say this.  Buffalo would save 10 million on the cap in the scenario he laid out.  

 

They already moved money around when he was signed to move it more upfront.  The problem is when a player gets more money up front it is less disincentive to honor contract signed on back end.

16 minutes ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

I also look at Mongo and Williams and think it would have been a lot better to try and sign them earlier in the season if they were indeed what we are looking for on the oline. And maybe Beane did contact their respective agents to discuss what the contract should look like. With the run we're making these guys are going to get whatever they want in FA because they can pass block in a passing league. Beane may make an offer but I can't see how it would be market value because I don't think it's in the best interest of the long term competitiveness of the team.   

 

Mongo made comment that the Bills did not rush him back when he was injured.  I am sure this will be a factor in how he evaluates offers.

[Boxcar]

14 hours ago, purple haze said:

They like having a blocking tight end and none of who they have is better at it than Smith.  He’s not expensive.  Don’t count on him getting let go.

He can also turn on the jets for some big chunk plays

[ColoradoBills]

14 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Eh, he is over $3mil I believe. 

 

14 hours ago, Bferra13 said:

Helluva time we live in where Lee Smith gets 3 mil a year. Im not bashing him(okay maybe a little), i know he is a fine blocker. But dam...

 

If you both want Lee Smith gone that's your choice but the fact is his 2021 Cap hit is $2.25.

He's going to camp for sure and will battle for a spot after a pretty good (better than I expected) 2020 season.

[QLBillsFan]

Morse, Star, Matakevich, Gaines cut create about 23m. That keeps Milano and Willams. Likely the least painful way to do it. Unless you keep Star over Butler or Jefferson. 

[4BillsintheBurgh]

43 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Mongo made comment that the Bills did not rush him back when he was injured.  I am sure this will be a factor in how he evaluates offers.

I understand and there is all the culture stuff and the winning etc.

 

It's a business though, and I couldn't blame Mongo for going for a big payday since he really hasn't had one.

 

I think we may need to get used to former Bills coming back after their big money contract ends as the new "Carolina connection"

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

 

If you both want Lee Smith gone that's your choice but the fact is his 2021 Cap hit is $2.25.

He's going to camp for sure and will battle for a spot after a pretty good (better than I expected) 2020 season.

I stand corrected on the cap figure, and we will see about him being back. Nobody knows the future. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

 

If you both want Lee Smith gone that's your choice but the fact is his 2021 Cap hit is $2.25.

He's going to camp for sure and will battle for a spot after a pretty good (better than I expected) 2020 season.

 

I think the Bills would love to have Smith back. It will come down to whether they think they can spare that cash. They have to weigh it up against if they can't the saving is likely only $1m or thereabouts because I am convinced they'd bring another vet blocking tight end in. 

[ColoradoBills]

25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the Bills would love to have Smith back. It will come down to whether they think they can spare that cash. They have to weigh it up against if they can't the saving is likely only $1m or thereabouts because I am convinced they'd bring another vet blocking tight end in. 

 

Funny that earlier in the year I was calling for Lee Smith to be let go and you made good points on keeping him.

I have ate my crow after seeing his play this year.  He did a very good job.

I see him going to camp regardless of the money.  Like you said the savings v his replacement in small.

 

I'm sticking with what I believe to be the plan.  Nate Becker and/or some other cheap blocking TE will battle with Lee for the blocking TE position.

Bills have peanuts invested in the TE position and there will be a lot of players this coming year fighting for every position other than Knox's.

IMO.

 

 

[Doc]

1 hour ago, QLBillsFan said:

Morse, Star, Matakevich, Gaines cut create about 23m. That keeps Milano and Willams. Likely the least painful way to do it. Unless you keep Star over Butler or Jefferson. 

 

Star will stay.  Even as a post-June 1st cap cut, he'll only save $500K.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

7 hours ago, Buffalo Boy said:

   Our pass pro was absolutely amazing this year, especially when you think what the prevailing opinion of it was before the season.

    I would like to see Beane focus/ take a flyer on some maulers who downhill block better than pass protect. 
    I realize our backs need an upgrade too but we need to create the ability to run earlier in games.

Why? 

[QLBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

Star will stay.  Even as a post-June 1st cap cut, he'll only save $500K.

I thought he was about 7.5ish for 20& 21 but I am not a cap expert so I must have misinterpreted.