Scenario where Bills may want to intentionally lose week 17

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

You're overstating my point. I'm not saying to literally throw the game. If Jake Fromm throwing to Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie somehow beats the Dolphins, God bless them. I consider starting the backups effectively the same thing as intentionally losing. If the Dolphins somehow lose in that scenario I'll just shrug my shoulders and laugh at them.

 

My bad, I didn't understand this.  

[Buffalo03]

3 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

There's no such thing as a meaningless game where you play the same opponent the next week.  Handing over a mental advantage could be drinking poison.  I already acknowledged that I'm fine with playing the backups in this scenario but purely because of the injury concerns.  Do you really expect McD to address the team and tell them to intentionally lose?  He wouldn't be able to look at them after.  To be clear if you have a desperate team of starters vs a team of backups actively trying to lose in an NFL game the score would be something like 55-3.  That's not the team morale I want heading into the playoffs.  Give me a swaggering Bills squad against the Ravens over a simpering one against the Dolphins trying to pick their dignity back up off the floor.  

I just don't like the thought of Lamar in round 1 at all. I feel like the Dolphins even at their best isn't as good as the Ravens at their best. Give me the warm weather team with a rookie QB coming to cold weather on the road than Lamar any day of the week

[Figster]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You're overstating my point. I'm not saying to literally throw the game. If Jake Fromm throwing to Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie somehow beats the Dolphins, God bless them. I consider starting the backups effectively the same thing as intentionally losing. If the Dolphins somehow lose in that scenario I'll just shrug my shoulders and laugh at them.

I like your idea up to the point of losing intentionally.

 

Resting the starters on the last regular season game is a great idea IMO...

 

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by Figster

[Buffalo03]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Eh the Ravens don't really scare me. I'd put them even with Cleveland as far as ranking teams I'd like to play in the wildcard round. We already know McDermott can slow Lamar Jackson down even in the middle of an MVP season and now we have an offense that can score points. Jackson has choked in two straight playoff appearances. I might actually prefer them to the Browns right now. Only team I really don't want to face in the wildcard is Tennessee. Outside of KC they're my least favorite matchup for the Bills. 

Yeah, Tenessee is definitely not a first round matchup I want either. Derrick Henry is freaking scary

[HappyDays]

Just now, Buffalo03 said:

Yeah, Tenessee is definitely not a first round matchup I want either. Derrick Henry is freaking scary

 

Now that I think about it part of me is actually rooting for the Titans to lose out and drop out of the playoffs entirely. That would probably mean we'd play the Ravens in the wildcard but I think I'd prefer that to having to play the Titans followed by the Chiefs.

 

All those years of toying around with the playoff machine to find crazy scenarios where the Bills sneak in at 8-8, and this is what it's come to!

[BillsfaninChicago]

Life has a funny way of flipping what you think should happen with what actually does happen. I was at this game back at the start of 2005 that was just like a playoff game and all we had to do was beat second and third stringers...

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Just now, Buffalo03 said:

I just don't like the thought of Lamar in round 1 at all. I feel like the Dolphins even at their best isn't as good as the Ravens at their best. Give me the warm weather team with a rookie QB coming to cold weather on the road than Lamar any day of the week

 

I definitely prefer the Dolphins matchup.  I just think any threat to our mojo right now is a bigger deal than any particular opponent.  We've been stealing lunch money and rubbing faces in the dirt since the bye.

[Buffalo03]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Now that I think about it part of me is actually rooting for the Titans to lose out and drop out of the playoffs entirely. That would probably mean we'd play the Ravens in the wildcard but I think I'd prefer that to having to play the Titans followed by the Chiefs.

 

All those years of toying around with the playoff machine to find crazy scenarios where the Bills sneak in at 8-8, and this is what it's come to!

Trust me, I know what you mean lol

[Paulus]

The Barkley/Fromm game?

[Figster]

 

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Now that I think about it part of me is actually rooting for the Titans to lose out and drop out of the playoffs entirely. That would probably mean we'd play the Ravens in the wildcard but I think I'd prefer that to having to play the Titans followed by the Chiefs.

 

All those years of toying around with the playoff machine to find crazy scenarios where the Bills sneak in at 8-8, and this is what it's come to!

You would think the extra wild card might start watering down the level of competition.

 

Doesn't seem to be the case in the AFC...

[machine gun kelly]

58 minutes ago, BuffBillsForLife said:

I'm pretty sure suggesting that the Bills intentionally lose to the Dolphins so that the Dolphins make the playoffs is a sin.

A mortal sin, not just a genial sin (my catholic upbringing).  Don’t forget boys, this is our rivalry going forward.  The Jets, and now even the Lats are a hot mess.  We will be ducking it out with the Dolphins for years, so just hear me out 😇(sorry happy, I couldn’t help myself).

[BillsMafia13]

22 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

There's no such thing as a meaningless game where you play the same opponent the next week.  Handing over a mental advantage could be drinking poison.  I already acknowledged that I'm fine with playing the backups in this scenario but purely because of the injury concerns.  Do you really expect McD to address the team and tell them to intentionally lose?  He wouldn't be able to look at them after.  To be clear if you have a desperate team of starters vs a team of backups actively trying to lose in an NFL game the score would be something like 55-3.  That's not the team morale I want heading into the playoffs.  Give me a swaggering Bills squad against the Ravens over a simpering one against the Dolphins trying to pick their dignity back up off the floor.  

The dolphins would have to win that game and would throw everything they had at our back ups only to play them at home right after. I’ll take rested starters and their game plan vs jackson getting hot in the playoffs. Not a good look but it’s definitely smart 

[Weatherman]

19 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Yeah, Tenessee is definitely not a first round matchup I want either. Derrick Henry is freaking scary

The only scary team in the entire NFL is the Chiefs.  Everyone else is second rate.  I don’t care who we play as long as it’s not the Chiefs, at least until the conference championship. 

[theRalph]

I agree the bills would never intentionally lose a game. But I think the poster was trying to make the point that, if those initial likely conditions are met, the Bills could rest in week 17 having attained the two seed. And the way it may work out, the bills will likely choose who gets in the playoffs between Miami and Baltimore.

[Rocky Landing]

I'm actually for this scenario. Not only would I rather we play the Phins than the Ravens, there would be something gratifying about two AFCE teams making the playoffs, and neither of them are the Pats*.

[BillsfaninChicago]

1 minute ago, theRalph said:

I agree the bills would never intentionally lose a game. But I think the poster was trying to make the point that, if those initial likely conditions are met, the Bills could rest in week 17 having attained the two seed. And the way it may work out, the bills will likely choose who gets in the playoffs between Miami and Baltimore.

That makes sense and it is a great situation to be in. I would just be carful wanting to play one team over another. You never know what team will show up on Sunday. Especially this year.

[Figster]

11 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

A mortal sin, not just a genial sin (my catholic upbringing).  Don’t forget boys, this is our rivalry going forward.  The Jets, and now even the Lats are a hot mess.  We will be ducking it out with the Dolphins for years, so just hear me out 😇(sorry happy, I couldn’t help myself).

Man I get where your coming from, but If good fortune can come to another team that is sure to get us prime time matchups next season like back in the day with Kelly and Marino, why not. I like the Ravens less and I don't like the Browns.

 

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by Figster

[Big Blitz]

4 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

The only scary team in the entire NFL is the Chiefs.  Everyone else is second rate.  I don’t care who we play as long as it’s not the Chiefs, at least until the conference championship. 

 

 

This is wrong.  The Titans and Ravens are top tier.  The Ravens have been hurt and have the look of getting ready to put it together.  They know their best RB is Dobbins now.  IF those corners and Campbell are healthy it's one of the 3 best teams in the league.  Mahomes annihilating them on that Sunday night game has given everyone the wrong impression.  Lamar is still a freak you hate to play.  

 

I don't know why people see the Titans (almost got to the SB last year almost won in KC in the Championship) as 2nd rate.  

[Big Turk]

No team is intentionally going to lose and especially not this one.

[machine gun kelly]

2 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

This is wrong.  The Titans and Ravens are top tier.  The Ravens have been hurt and have the look of getting ready to put it together.  They know their best RB is Dobbins now.  IF those corners and Campbell are healthy it's one of the 3 best teams in the league.  Mahomes annihilating them on that Sunday night game has given everyone the wrong impression.  Lamar is still a freak you hate to play.  

 

I don't know why people see the Titans (almost got to the SB last year almost won in KC in the Championship) as 2nd rate.  

Well said in that none of the teams that make the playoffs are second rate, but I am also not afraid of any team beating this Bills team that is playing hot in all three phases of the game.  The Chiefs in the AFCC would be a huge ratings game for the networks.  Thank god down here we just had CBS open up as the negotiations with TEGNA and DTV finally resolved.  My understanding is NBC had the same problems up there so hopefully this has or will get worked out for you guys.

[Figster]

 

Just now, Big Blitz said:

 

 

This is wrong.  The Titans and Ravens are top tier.  The Ravens have been hurt and have the look of getting ready to put it together.  They know their best RB is Dobbins now.  IF those corners and Campbell are healthy it's one of the 3 best teams in the league.  Mahomes annihilating them on that Sunday night game has given everyone the wrong impression.  Lamar is still a freak you hate to play.  

 

I don't know why people see the Titans (almost got to the SB last year almost won in KC in the Championship) as 2nd rate.  

I agree,  Titans, Ravens, both teams nobody wants to face in the playoffs.

 

Browns even starting to look real tough IMO.

 

No easy route to the big dance...

[JoPoy88]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Hear me out on this.

 

If the following things happen next week the Bills clinch the #2 spot no matter what:

 

Bills defeat Patriots

Colts defeat Steelers

Packers defeat Titans OR Browns defeat Jets

 

I think that scenario is quite likely.

 

Now take it one step further. If the Dolphins beat the Raiders next week, they would have to beat the Bills in week 17 to make the playoffs as the #7 seed over the Ravens. This is true even if the Ravens win out.

 

I don't know about you all but I would much rather play the Dolphins than the Ravens in the wildcard round.

 

So if the Bills go into week 17 with the #2 seed clinched AND the Dolphins beat the Raiders, I hope we play our backups with an extremely vanilla gameplan against the Dolphins. Let them throw everything they have at us to guarantee themselves a playoff spot, then use it to game plan against them the following week to win our first playoff game in over 2 decades.

stopped right there.

[Nelius]

Over the past two seasons, I can't think of another defender that terrorized this offense more than Matt Judon did last year. Bills aren't going to lose on purpose, but I agree that Baltimore would be nice to avoid.

[BillsfaninSB]

Win the game in front of you.   I think the Bills did not do themselves any favors laying an egg against the Jets last year.  They went into the playoffs 1 - 3. 
 

If a starter is really banged up, fine, sit him. 

[purple haze]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Hear me out on this.

 

If the following things happen next week the Bills clinch the #2 spot no matter what:

 

Bills defeat Patriots

Colts defeat Steelers

Packers defeat Titans OR Browns defeat Jets

 

I think that scenario is quite likely.

 

Now take it one step further. If the Dolphins beat the Raiders next week, they would have to beat the Bills in week 17 to make the playoffs as the #7 seed over the Ravens. This is true even if the Ravens win out.

 

I don't know about you all but I would much rather play the Dolphins than the Ravens in the wildcard round.

 

So if the Bills go into week 17 with the #2 seed clinched AND the Dolphins beat the Raiders, I hope we play our backups with an extremely vanilla gameplan against the Dolphins. Let them throw everything they have at us to guarantee themselves a playoff spot, then use it to game plan against them the following week to win our first playoff game in over 2 decades.

Nah.

Good teams don’t worry about other teams.  The Bills aren’t worried about other teams.  Be like them.

[Weatherman]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

This is wrong.  The Titans and Ravens are top tier.  The Ravens have been hurt and have the look of getting ready to put it together.  They know their best RB is Dobbins now.  IF those corners and Campbell are healthy it's one of the 3 best teams in the league.  Mahomes annihilating them on that Sunday night game has given everyone the wrong impression.  Lamar is still a freak you hate to play.  

 

I don't know why people see the Titans (almost got to the SB last year almost won in KC in the Championship) as 2nd rate.  

It’s opinionated so I’m not sure how it can be wrong but I digress to the almighty Big Blitz couch coach of the decade.  But seriously the Bills are a better team than the Ravens and I’m not afraid of a team that’s still 50/50 to get into the playoffs after playing the NFC East and AFC South.  

1 hour ago, Figster said:

 

I agree,  Titans, Ravens, both teams nobody wants to face in the playoffs.

 

Browns even starting to look real tough IMO.

 

No easy route to the big dance...

Want to know another team that looks very tough and no one wants to play?  Yep, your Buffalo Bills!!! 

[billsbackto81]

Those days of wanting others to predetermine how we get in and who we play in the post season are over. The Bills have reached the post season the last 2 seasons with games to spare. When you accomplish this the opponents who still have to play because they've yet to punch a ticket are irrelevant. Keep playing, keep winning and keep moving forward until its over. That's who they are now and for the foreseeable future.

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, VaMilBill said:

Baltimore is getting hot. I would much rather play Miami than Baltimore. I think Baltimore can be a very dangerous team if they make the playoffs

Totally agree. I want no part of Baltimore. Miami is an easier team to beat. Tua vs Lamar and the experience of the Baltimore team and coaching staff. No brainer here. 

[RobbRiddick]

If all this happens this week we could just play backups against the Phins, in which case they'll win anyway (unless we do to them what the Steelers did to us). 

 

I agree, I'd rather play the Phins than Lamar

[Big Blitz]

53 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

It’s opinionated so I’m not sure how it can be wrong but I digress to the almighty Big Blitz couch coach of the decade.  But seriously the Bills are a better team than the Ravens and I’m not afraid of a team that’s still 50/50 to get into the playoffs after playing the NFC East and AFC South.  

Want to know another team that looks very tough and no one wants to play?  Yep, your Buffalo Bills!!! 

 

 

I don't know that the Bills are better then the Ravens.  I know I'd rather have my QB then theirs and that's about it.  That's no disrespect to our guys we're pretty good on defense to.  

 

And you know who's scored the most points in the league this year?  The Titans.  

 

We're going to be playing 3 teams that can win the SB all of whom are better then the NFC teams that will get in.  I know there is a little careful what you wish for to this.....but if we were to lose to the Dolphins at home in RD1 we weren't going to the SB anyway.  Something wasn't good enough.

 

None of this matters anyway if the Titans lose and we win this week.  We will treat week 17 as a bye bc we should, and if Miami wins that's it.  We likely play Miami.  If you ask me who I prefer between them and Baltimore it's the Dolphins.  That does not mean I take the Dolphins lightly.  

[maddenboy]

5 hours ago, BuffBillsForLife said:

I'm pretty sure suggesting that the Bills intentionally lose to the Dolphins so that the Dolphins make the playoffs is a sin.

 

There is exactly one team in the NFL that this applies to, for any Bills fan older than 35.  OP's reasoning (with his addendum later in the thread) is otherwise sound and welcome. 

 

One of the great benefits of being a Bills fan is that you have a true arch-rival, deeply hated-in-your-bones team.  For us, a week isnt complete unless the Bills win AND the Fish lose.   Most teams dont have a true rival. 

 

 

So yeah.  If we have to win so the Fish miss the playoffs, I'm all in.  If we have to lose so the Fish miss the playoffs, I'm all in.  Otherwise, cant do it.

Edited December 22, 2020 by maddenboy

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

The Ravens are second in the conference in point differential, behind the Chiefs. I want no part of them in round 1. They are a Championship-level opponent. It would be terrible luck to draw them in round 1 when in any other year we would've had a BYE.

 

So no, you don't intentionally lose, but you hope very hard to clinch #2 this week and then you absolutely rest your team in Week 17 and let the chips fall.

[nucci]

Bad things happen when you lose on purpose

[PrimeTime101]

To be the best you have to beat the best. I think this team when HEALTHY can handle anyone in the AFC other then KC.   I think we are a better team since we played KC last time and the AFC champ game is going to be a monster blood fight us vrs KC

[whatdrought]

Nothing says “bring me the king, I’m gonna cut his head off” like losing intentionally to avoid getting a marginally better team. 

[Doc Brown]

Figures the year the Bills may get the #2 seed they expand the field to seven.  Is we have the #2 seed clinched we rest our starters against the Fins.  If not, we play to win the game and let the chips fall where they may.

[Utah John]

5 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

You and I agree on this.

 

The Ravens are the last team I want to play.

 

Miami > Colts > Browns > Tennessee > Baltimore 

The last team I want the Bills to play is the NFC champion.

1 hour ago, maddenboy said:

 

There is exactly one team in the NFL that this applies to, for any Bills fan older than 35.  OP's reasoning (with his addendum later in the thread) is otherwise sound and welcome. 

 

One of the great benefits of being a Bills fan is that you have a true arch-rival, deeply hated-in-your-bones team.  For us, a week isnt complete unless the Bills win AND the Fish lose.   Most teams dont have a true rival. 

 

 

So yeah.  If we have to win so the Fish miss the playoffs, I'm all in.  If we have to lose so the Fish miss the playoffs, I'm all in.  Otherwise, cant do it.

I hate the fish AND the Pats.  My Bills days go back far enough that I remember our competition with the Boston Patriots in 1963.  Then we went a decade without beating the fish, and it seems like two decades where we hardly ever beat the Pats. 

 

The way I see it, it's been almost forever since two AFCE teams, neither of which was the Patriots, made the playoffs.  I kind of like the idea of two out of four AFCE teams in the playoffs, and Belichick sitting at home stewing.

[CorkScrewHill]

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Hear me out on this.

 

If the following things happen next week the Bills clinch the #2 spot no matter what:

 

Bills defeat Patriots

Colts defeat Steelers

Packers defeat Titans OR Browns defeat Jets

 

I think that scenario is quite likely.

 

Now take it one step further. If the Dolphins beat the Raiders next week, they would have to beat the Bills in week 17 to make the playoffs as the #7 seed over the Ravens. This is true even if the Ravens win out.

 

I don't know about you all but I would much rather play the Dolphins than the Ravens in the wildcard round.

 

So if the Bills go into week 17 with the #2 seed clinched AND the Dolphins beat the Raiders, I hope we play our backups with an extremely vanilla gameplan against the Dolphins. Let them throw everything they have at us to guarantee themselves a playoff spot, then use it to game plan against them the following week to win our first playoff game in over 2 decades.

I think we will rest our guys if we have #2 locked up. Everybody says how great it is to have a bye during the year to get the team healthy and what an advantage it is to play another team on two weeks rest - this is no different. @HappyDays makes a great point and I think in fact this is a very likely scenario 

[TPS]

 If you're afraid to play the Ravens (or Titans) in R1, another solution is for the Colts to lose to Pitt and the Bills win out (with a few other assumptions of course).  The Ravens have the head-to-head with the Colts.

 

Personally, while it might be good to rest some players in week 17, it's NEVER a good idea to try for an outcome hoping for a more "favorable" match up.  That simply says you're not good enough. 

 

Btw, in this scenario, I've also got the Titans as the 4th seed (they lose this week), and I think they can certainly win in KC, which would give the Bills the possibility of home field throughout...that would be the optimal scenario, for me at least.

Edited December 22, 2020 by TPS

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Agree 100%.