GoBills808 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Line opened w/Steelers a 1 point favorite and pretty quickly rose to 2. Moneyline moved similarly with Bills opening -105 and Pittsburgh -120, now sitting at +115 and -135 respectively. So early money moves line in favor of Steelers who have won three straight versus the Bills coming off a loss to a superior BALT last Sunday. Trends of note: 1) I'm guessing??? that Connor and Smith-Schuster will be back, they are practicing this week. Pouncey I believe is also scheduled to return from suspension. 2) The o/u is opened @ 37 which is the lowest of all week 15 games. Considering how the respective defenses have been playing it's not hard to see why. Bills games have gone under 10 out of 13 games this season (I have been profitable parlay Bills ATS+the under this year), and the Steelers games have gone under last 5 straight. I would wait to see whether Connor and JJSS are confirmed playing before betting, but if either is scheduled to miss the game I'm taking the under once again. 3)Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs. I'm not big on historical trends over 5 games back, but the Bills have been playing good football getting points and I think the team's mentality is a trend that holds under McDermott. Bills are also value on the road, posting 5 wins and a push against the spread and going 5-1 straight up. 4) Duck Hodges and the Steelers offense- Yes, they are 3-0 ATS and SU in his last (and only) three starts this year. However...in those games the Steelers defense and ST has been responsible for a ridiculous 52% of their points scored if I'm reading this correctly and I'm pretty sure I am. That's totally unsustainable imo. Bills will look to limit turnovers and invite the Steelers offense to try to score. I do not see them being successful (Pittsburgh I mean). What it all means to me- I like Bills and the points here. I see a very conservative (surprise!) gameplan on offense to limit turnovers, mistakes, and play field position. Lots of field goals from a suddenly deadeye Haushka. If you like a two teamer the under is probably pretty safe imo. See this one something like Bills 17-13. Good luck. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 This is specifically wrt betting and by request 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 (edited) Historically whenever someone asks me about betting on a Bills game I say ‘don’t do it’. This year does feel different. I don’t think the Bills lose two in a row. As long as Pitt is favored I think you are ok. O/U is tricky in this one. Lean under. . Edited December 11, 2019 by atlbillsfan1975 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pokebball Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said: Historically whenever someone asks me about betting on a Bills game I say ‘don’t do it’. This year does feel different. I don’t think the Bills lose two in a row. As long as Pitt is favored I think you are ok. O/U is tricky in this one. Lean under. . I think over is easy money. But I don't bet on my teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshAllin Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Bills are also 3-0 after an L this season, they will come out fired up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 26 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: If you like a two teamer the under is probably pretty safe imo. See this one something like Bills 17-13. Good luck. Back in my gambling days, this would be a great first-half under bet. Just like this past Sunday. It'll probably sit around 16 or 17. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyBills Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 I wasn't impressed with Pitt versus an inferior Cardinal team. That game tape really calmed my nerves. Their O is bad bad. They had a ST return TD. Murray threw a brutal pick on Pits 2 yard line as well as 2 more Rookie ints and it was basically a neutral field with all the Steeler fans I see this game going like the Denver gm. 20-6 or something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 I'd take the Bills at +2. Not sure on over/under, that is tricky; while 37 points is not a lot of scoring, neither offense is exactly high powered. It should be a defensive struggle, and neither coach tends to run up the score. I'd dub this game the Conservative Bowl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 (edited) This could very well be a snow game https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Pittsburgh+PA?canonicalCityId=c2be8b1617461b93a755108c3c88493a5a38a4c023045792ffaeff9c4c7fc422 Edited December 11, 2019 by HOUSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike in Horseheads Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 57 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: Hate to burst your bubble 808 Hate to burst your bubble we want this thread 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 Myself personally- I am waiting to see more movement on the moneyline. I have a BUF+2/under play right now but if I see anything over +130 I think there's a lot of value there. Sidenote: I may update this thread as the line moves throughout the week...and congratulations to whoever got in early on RAMS +4 and +135 early open before they took it down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike in Horseheads Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, HOUSE said: This could very well be a snow game https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Pittsburgh+PA?canonicalCityId=c2be8b1617461b93a755108c3c88493a5a38a4c023045792ffaeff9c4c7fc422 Been watching that, doesn't look like much at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 This game is Denver part 2 except its on the road. Maybe something like 17-9 Bills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike in Horseheads Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Myself personally- I am waiting to see more movement on the moneyline. I have a BUF+2/under play right now but if I see anything over +130 I think there's a lot of value there. Sidenote: I may update this thread as the line moves throughout the week...and congratulations to whoever got in early on RAMS +4 and +135 early open before they took it down Had Eagles -9 last night. After they got down took them -2 and covered 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 21 minutes ago, Mike in Horseheads said: Hate to burst your bubble we want this thread My mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dablitzkrieg Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 I'm nervous about this game. Buffalo hasn't won there since 1975 in reg season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 hour ago, GoBills808 said: 1) I'm guessing??? that Connor and Smith-Schuster will be back, they are practicing this week. Pouncey I believe is also scheduled to return from suspension. Didn't he play in the Arizona game? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rochesterfan Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, Doc Brown said: Didn't he play in the Arizona game? Yes he did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 23 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said: I'm nervous about this game. Buffalo hasn't won there since 1975 in reg season True, though in fairness the last time a good Bills team played at PIT was in the ‘90s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: Yes exactly.....only difference being Pittsburg is actually a good team and Denver isn't. Take a hike 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigK14094 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 This team has heart, but, weaknesses. Our O is still fledgling....and the ST is subject to breakdowns. Got outcoached in Miami (by Crossman no less) Could happen again. Close game imho...pickem.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tcali Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Dablitzkrieg said: I'm nervous about this game. Buffalo hasn't won there since 1975 in reg season even in the golden kelly era we always got crushed there in the regular season. should be a good game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillies Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Bills are the better team, period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 We need to win this game. D is equal. Offense we are better. If not, then we have major issues. Really, a franchise QB does not loose to an undrafted rookie. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 2 hours ago, Mike in Horseheads said: Hate to burst your bubble we want this thread but I thought it was about betting. funny how that turned out. one sure way not to lose. Don’t bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyBills Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 23-9 Bills Bills and Under ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 26 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: but I thought it was about betting. funny how that turned out. one sure way not to lose. Don’t bet You’ll never lose if you never gamble. But you’ll never win either?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, RyanC883 said: We need to win this game. D is equal. Offense we are better. If not, then we have major issues. Really, a franchise QB does not loose to an undrafted rookie. The D is not equal. The PIT D causes havoc for QBs, creates takeaways like crazy and scores TDs. The Bills D beats you with coverages, confusion and discipline. They cause punts, but not many takeaways. It’s really a bad matchup. The onus is on the Bills offense to score with few playmakers vs a pressure defense. The PIT D and physical offensive players allow them to scrape by with a caretaker QB. The Bills do have major issues going toe to toe with exactly the type of defense they’ll be facing this week. NFL is really all about matchups. Just a quirk of the schedule that they get several of these defenses in December. Edited December 11, 2019 by Boatdrinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 4 hours ago, Dablitzkrieg said: I'm nervous about this game. Buffalo hasn't won there since 1975 in reg season Oh, how quickly we forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 To be fair, he qualified it with “ in regular season”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irv Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 I feel the Bills consistently being the underdogs has a lot more to do with sucking for almost 20 years than the team that is on the field today. The guys who set the lines factor that in. It’s going to take a long time to get the stink off the team. I have no doubt they win outright Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy KGB Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 9 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: but I thought it was about betting. funny how that turned out. one sure way not to lose. Don’t bet And no premarital sex either ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dablitzkrieg Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 6 hours ago, Chandler#81 said: Oh, how quickly we forget. I didn't forget. As I stated, regular season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoHuddleKelly12 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Arguably the Steelers' run of constant wins over the Bills, especially at home, is basically more impressive than what the Patriots have done to us in terms of longevity--wish I could put my finger on it, but it's just a snakebit town for us. Side note as to the last time we won in Pburgh in the regular season--it was 1975 and the Steelers were in their 70's dynastic heyday, winning another Super Bowl that year too. That year's Steelers team went 12-2, and steamrolled through their division 6-0. Their only "real" loss that year? 30-21 at the hand of the eventual 8-6 Bills, in Week 2 (The Steelers other loss was in Week 14 when all starters were resting against the Raiders). Think about that for a minute--the Bills put up 30 points at 3 Rivers against one of the best D units the league has ever seen! Hope springs eternal for this Bills fan...even if I had to reference a game that occurred prior to my even being a twinkling in my dad's eye https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Pittsburgh_Steelers_season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said: Arguably the Steelers' run of constant wins over the Bills, especially at home, is basically more impressive than what the Patriots have done to us in terms of longevity--wish I could put my finger on it, but it's just a snakebit town for us. Side note as to the last time we won in Pburgh in the regular season--it was 1975 and the Steelers were in their 70's dynastic heyday, winning another Super Bowl that year too. That year's Steelers team went 12-2, and steamrolled through their division 6-0. Their only "real" loss that year? 30-21 at the hand of the eventual 8-6 Bills, in Week 2 (The Steelers other loss was in Week 14 when all starters were resting against the Raiders). Think about that for a minute--the Bills put up 30 points at 3 Rivers against one of the best D units the league has ever seen! Hope springs eternal for this Bills fan...even if I had to reference a game that occurred prior to my even being a twinkling in my dad's eye https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Pittsburgh_Steelers_season You are a treasure, Sir. Stay gold, Pony Boy! Elect SDS President...make HUDS King!* * No payment was made by HUDS to Dollars 2 Donuts for the praise and admiration indicated above. D2D is just a fan. Edited December 11, 2019 by dollars 2 donuts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 hour ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said: Arguably the Steelers' run of constant wins over the Bills, especially at home, is basically more impressive than what the Patriots have done to us in terms of longevity--wish I could put my finger on it, but it's just a snakebit town for us. Side note as to the last time we won in Pburgh in the regular season--it was 1975 and the Steelers were in their 70's dynastic heyday, winning another Super Bowl that year too. That year's Steelers team went 12-2, and steamrolled through their division 6-0. Their only "real" loss that year? 30-21 at the hand of the eventual 8-6 Bills, in Week 2 (The Steelers other loss was in Week 14 when all starters were resting against the Raiders). Think about that for a minute--the Bills put up 30 points at 3 Rivers against one of the best D units the league has ever seen! Hope springs eternal for this Bills fan...even if I had to reference a game that occurred prior to my even being a twinkling in my dad's eye https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Pittsburgh_Steelers_season 227 on the ground from OJ? dayum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said: Arguably the Steelers' run of constant wins over the Bills, especially at home, is basically more impressive than what the Patriots have done to us in terms of longevity--wish I could put my finger on it, but it's just a snakebit town for us. Side note as to the last time we won in Pburgh in the regular season--it was 1975 and the Steelers were in their 70's dynastic heyday, winning another Super Bowl that year too. That year's Steelers team went 12-2, and steamrolled through their division 6-0. Their only "real" loss that year? 30-21 at the hand of the eventual 8-6 Bills, in Week 2 (The Steelers other loss was in Week 14 when all starters were resting against the Raiders). Think about that for a minute--the Bills put up 30 points at 3 Rivers against one of the best D units the league has ever seen! Hope springs eternal for this Bills fan...even if I had to reference a game that occurred prior to my even being a twinkling in my dad's eye https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Pittsburgh_Steelers_season 7 minutes ago, dneveu said: 227 on the ground from OJ? dayum. BTW, and I am honestly going off memory from the history of the Bills in team guides I used to look at as I was just a doe-eyed young lad in the 70s, that Bills team that finished an unfortunate 8-6 started the season at 4-0 and 6-2...they let the playoffs just slip away after that and that was it for Lou, the Bills and OJ, really until Knox's Bills. OJ was truly one of the greatest RBs, but with dneveu's reference above, and recent thoughts on OJ's record setting 273 yards rushing for on Thanksgiving's Day shows 2 out of the only 6 times that OJ rushed for 200 yards. The more you know! Edited December 11, 2019 by dollars 2 donuts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 9 hours ago, Chandler#81 said: Oh, how quickly we forget. He said regular season. 16 minutes ago, dneveu said: 227 on the ground from OJ? dayum. 1975 was OJ's best season. He had nearly 200 more yards from scrimmage than in the 1973 season, and he had 23 TDs in 1975 to 12 in 1973. He averaged 15.2 yards per reception that season! Just unstoppable. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SimpO.00.htm 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said: BTW, and I am honestly going off memory from the history of the Bills in team guides I used to look at as I was just a doe-eyed young lad in the 70s, that Bills team that finished an unfortunate 8-6 started the season at 4-0 and 6-2...they let the playoffs just slip away after that and that was it for Lou, the Bills and OJ really until Knox's Bills. OJ was truly one of the greatest RBs, but with dneveu's reference above, and recent thoughts on OJ's record setting 273 yards rushed for on Thanksgiving's Day shows 2 out of the only 6 times that OJ rushed for 200 yards. The more you know! I hope you’re not suggesting that six 200-yard games is a modest total. No one has rushed for more, and OJ really only had five NFL seasons in his prime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, mannc said: I hope you’re not suggesting that six 200-yard games is a modest total. No one has rushed for more, and OJ really only had five NFL seasons in his prime. I am absolutely not suggesting that. I am suggesting that history gets fuzzy as time goes by and some people think that such an event was a routine experience as a Bills fan. It was not. It was rare and special. I believe Thurman may (may) have just had one, that Monday night game against the Jets. Greg Bell had one too....against Dallas when the Bills didn't have a win yet, late in the season...84, I think. I was there. EDIT: use of the word "only" doesn't insinuate an insult, just that such results were limited. Edit 2: @mannc Thank you for pointing out the above so I could clarify. I don't want there to be any confusion for what I was trying to say, which I should have expanded upon originally. Edited December 11, 2019 by dollars 2 donuts 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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