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GoBills808

Wk 15- BUF +2 @ PITT

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Line opened w/Steelers a 1 point favorite and pretty quickly rose to 2. Moneyline moved similarly with Bills opening -105 and Pittsburgh -120, now sitting at +115 and -135 respectively. So early money moves line in favor of Steelers who have won three straight versus the Bills coming off a loss to a superior BALT last Sunday. 

 

Trends of note:

 

1) I'm guessing??? that Connor and Smith-Schuster will be back, they are practicing this week. Pouncey I believe is also scheduled to return from suspension.

 

2) The o/u is opened @ 37 which is the lowest of all week 15 games. Considering how the respective defenses have been playing it's not hard to see why. Bills games have gone under 10 out of 13 games this season (I have been profitable parlay Bills ATS+the under this year), and the Steelers games have gone under last 5 straight. I would wait to see whether Connor and JJSS are confirmed playing before betting, but if either is scheduled to miss the game I'm taking the under once again. 

 

3)Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs. I'm not big on historical trends over 5 games back, but the Bills have been playing good football getting points and I think the team's mentality is a trend that holds under McDermott.  Bills are also value on the road, posting 5 wins and a push against the spread and going 5-1 straight up. 

 

4) Duck Hodges and the Steelers offense- Yes, they are 3-0 ATS and SU in his last (and only) three starts this year. However...in those games the Steelers defense and ST has been responsible for a ridiculous 52% of their points scored if I'm reading this correctly and I'm pretty sure I am. That's totally unsustainable imo. Bills will look to limit turnovers and invite the Steelers offense to try to score. I do not see them being successful (Pittsburgh I mean).

 

What it all means to me- I like Bills and the points here. I see a very conservative (surprise!) gameplan on offense to limit turnovers, mistakes, and play field position. Lots of field goals from a suddenly deadeye Haushka. If you like a two teamer the under is probably pretty safe imo. See this one something like Bills 17-13. Good luck.

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Historically whenever someone asks me about betting on a Bills game I say ‘don’t do it’. This year does feel different. I don’t think the Bills lose two in a row. As long as Pitt is favored I think you are ok. O/U is tricky in this one. Lean under. .

Edited by atlbillsfan1975
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5 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Historically whenever someone asks me about betting on a Bills game I say ‘don’t do it’. This year does feel different. I don’t think the Bills lose two in a row. As long as Pitt is favored I think you are ok. O/U is tricky in this one. Lean under. .

I think over is easy money.  But I don't bet on my teams.

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26 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 If you like a two teamer the under is probably pretty safe imo. See this one something like Bills 17-13. Good luck.

 

Back in my gambling days, this would be a great first-half under bet. Just like this past Sunday. It'll probably sit around 16 or 17.

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I wasn't impressed with Pitt versus an inferior Cardinal team. 

That game tape really calmed my nerves. Their O is bad bad. They had a ST return TD. Murray threw a brutal pick on Pits 2 yard line as well as 2 more Rookie ints and it was basically a neutral field with all the Steeler fans

I see this game going like the Denver gm. 20-6 or something like that

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I'd take the Bills at +2.  Not sure on over/under, that is tricky; while 37 points is not a lot of scoring, neither offense is exactly high powered.  It should be a defensive struggle, and neither coach tends to run up the score.  I'd dub this game the Conservative Bowl.

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Myself personally- I am waiting to see more movement on the moneyline. I have a BUF+2/under play right now but if I see anything over +130 I think there's a lot of value there.

 

Sidenote: I may update this thread as the line moves throughout the week...and congratulations to whoever got in early on RAMS +4 and +135 early open before they took it down

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2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Myself personally- I am waiting to see more movement on the moneyline. I have a BUF+2/under play right now but if I see anything over +130 I think there's a lot of value there.

 

Sidenote: I may update this thread as the line moves throughout the week...and congratulations to whoever got in early on RAMS +4 and +135 early open before they took it down

Had Eagles -9 last night. After they got down took them -2 and covered

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1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

1) I'm guessing??? that Connor and Smith-Schuster will be back, they are practicing this week. Pouncey I believe is also scheduled to return from suspension.

Didn't he play in the Arizona game?

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23 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

I'm nervous about this game.  Buffalo hasn't won there since 1975 in reg season

True, though in fairness the last time a good Bills team played at PIT was in the ‘90s.

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1 hour ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

This game is Denver part 2 except its on the road. Maybe something like 17-9 Bills.

Yes exactly.....only difference being Pittsburg is actually a good team and Denver isn't.

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This team has heart, but, weaknesses.  Our O is still fledgling....and the ST is subject to breakdowns.  Got outcoached in Miami (by Crossman no less)  Could happen again.  Close game imho...pickem....

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1 hour ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

I'm nervous about this game.  Buffalo hasn't won there since 1975 in reg season

even in the golden kelly era we always got crushed there in the regular season. should be a good game.

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